Jordan Howard..

[nabright]

I prefer Howard to Freeman. So, that's an easy decline to me. Freeman is only guaranteed one more year in ATL, so his situation could get worse next year. He's a guy I could see declining if he leaves ATL for a less ideal situation.

[cvbuc]

Howard is in a pretty horrible situation.

I keep seeing this sentiment over and over again on these forums but no one ever explains why they think that... His situation hasn't changed from a year ago unless people seem to think that the loss of Alshon Jeffery has completely overhauled the entire offense.

I've expressed my thoughts on this numerous times. Two main reasons:

1. Howard is at peak value and when you consider the historical comps of those with his NFL and rookie draft statuses... he would by far be the exception and not the rule if he sustained this success. Most guys with Howard's draft stock end up falling short after breakout years. There are always exceptions, ALWAYS - and Howard could be that exception - but he's already being valued as high as the #5 or #6 dynasty RB by some people. That's a crazy ceiling for him considering where he was a year ago - selling him now is ensuring a great profit on him.

2. I'm a die-hard Bucs fans. Watched every game for longer than I care to mention. Glennon is NOT a good QB for RB's and had a markedly negative effect on the running game in games he started for TB over his career. In Tampa he is referred to as Captain Checkdown - ranking near dead last in the league in both YPA and YPC throughout his career. He is also as immobile as a QB can get. He doesn't throw deep. He doesn't run. Combine those two factors and you get seriously stacked boxes against the run. Bucs RBs suffered at least a 0.5 yds per carry less average with him at QB than without. They also did not increase in target share despite the Captain Checkdown tendencies.

I've delved deeper into this in previous posts. Nothing is a given - but combining the two factors above screams sell to me.

This is NOT me saying that Howard is not talented. I simply think his value is inflated/peaked and the odds of him increasing or maintaining that status are very low. I like to sell for profits in situations like this.

[RightlegTucker]

Freeman is only guaranteed one more year in ATL, so his situation could get worse next year. He's a guy I could see declining if he leaves ATL for a less ideal situation.

True but they sound committed to keeping him.

http://thefalconswire.usatoday.com/2017 ... -thursday/

Nothing's for certain but I'd err on the side of him being back in Atlanta unless something changes.

[skip]

Howard is in a pretty horrible situation.

I keep seeing this sentiment over and over again on these forums but no one ever explains why they think that... His situation hasn't changed from a year ago unless people seem to think that the loss of Alshon Jeffery has completely overhauled the entire offense.

I've expressed my thoughts on this numerous times. Two main reasons:

1. Howard is at peak value and when you consider the historical comps of those with his NFL and rookie draft statuses... he would by far be the exception and not the rule if he sustained this success. Most guys with Howard's draft stock end up falling short after breakout years. There are always exceptions, ALWAYS - and Howard could be that exception - but he's already being valued as high as the #5 or #6 dynasty RB by some people. That's a crazy ceiling for him considering where he was a year ago - selling him now is ensuring a great profit on him.

2. I'm a die-hard Bucs fans. Watched every game for longer than I care to mention. Glennon is NOT a good QB for RB's and had a markedly negative effect on the running game in games he started for TB over his career. In Tampa he is referred to as Captain Checkdown - ranking near dead last in the league in both YPA and YPC throughout his career. He is also as immobile as a QB can get. He doesn't throw deep. He doesn't run. Combine those two factors and you get seriously stacked boxes against the run. Bucs RBs suffered at least a 0.5 yds per carry less average with him at QB than without. They also did not increase in target share despite the Captain Checkdown tendencies.

I've delved deeper into this in previous posts. Nothing is a given - but combining the two factors above screams sell to me.

This is NOT me saying that Howard is not talented. I simply think his value is inflated/peaked and the odds of him increasing or maintaining that status are very low. I like to sell for profits in situations like this.

Point #1 is about draft pedigree, something that is often over-used to ignore every later round player. I understand that perspective and I'm an advocate of selling over-valued assets. But my question relates to this "horrible situation" that I keep seeing referenced here and I'm looking for something to substantiate why it is viewed that way as I see nothing that's changed from last season that will hurt Howard.

Point #2 assumes that Glennon is the starter but I don't think that is Chicago's intention. He may be a (very) temporary placeholder but there is a reason they drafted Trubisky. Either way, are we suggesting they are worse off than they were a year ago with Barkley/Hoyer? The QB situation in Chicago was a mess last season, I don't see how this year is any worse. Trubisky is likely an upgrade to everyone (including Cutler).

[smallxl]

No way Freeman is that much of an upgrade on howard...personally I prefer to take a chance on Howard..or seek another trade partner perhaps if someone values Howard more