Overthinking a Kicker??? UPDATE DEAL DONE

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AllGravy76
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Overthinking a Kicker??? UPDATE DEAL DONE

Postby AllGravy76 » Sun Jul 09, 2017 6:32 pm

I know a bit pathetic to ask, but when it comes to budget I overthink...

I do not have my kicker yet for this season and in this 24 team league, team in SIG, there are 9 teams without a kicker and even teams with kickers will be bidding on the Free Agents due to the fact most will trade a 3rd round pick if they need a kicker during the season. I have been offered...

Ryan Succop 17:$2.6m and Vincent Jackson 17:$4m

for

James O'Shaughnessy - 17:$615k, 18:$705k


He is giving me Succop for the price of dropping Jackson for him. Dropping Jackson will cost me $2m this year only. Succop is a bit pricey for a kicker and with the drop it will cost me $4.6m this year. James O is just a casualty of war and someone to send back in the deal. As of right now I have just shy of $29m available for me to use in FA. This deal would leave me just over $24m which should be plenty to fill whatever holes I need to.

The top FA kickers available that scored more than Succop last year are Vinny, Hopkins, Prater, Novak, Gano, and Myers. Vinny scored 135 points while Succop scored 107 last year. I only ask as I was pushing for a 3rd round pick to be added to the deal since I will be paying what I am but I think that might be pushing it and with the money I have available to me it is probably worth it to just get my kicker and not have to worry about winning one in FA. Average price for a kicker is about a $1.8m average per year. I also asked for the 3rd due to the lack of chances the Titans give Succop. Though they should be better this year...

Should I just stop overthinking this and go and get my kicker and stop being greedy for the 3rd. I think $24m should be plenty for me to fill whatever holes my team needs in FA. Yes i am overthinking on a kicker but there ya go. Would you do this deal? Thanks
Last edited by AllGravy76 on Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby Goddard » Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:37 pm

Just pick up whoever is on waivers.

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby The.Big.Spank » Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:41 pm

Goddard wrote: Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:37 pm Just pick up whoever is on waivers.
That was my answer before I read the post
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QB's: Fields, Wentz,
RB: D. Harris, D. Montgomery, Kendre M.
WR: Chase, AJ Brown, Aiyuk, Bateman
TE: Waller, J. Woods, Dulich, Mayer

Team 2: 12 Team SF 1ppr, Start 10
QB: Mahomes, Burrow, Watson
RB: Hall, Walker, Javonte, Pacheco, K Mitchell, Dobbins
WR: Godwin, JSN, Pittman, Pickens, Toney, DP Jones, S Moore
TE: Andrews, Fant, Likely
(2024) 1.03, 2.03, 3.03
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TE: Schultz, I Smith, Bellinger, Parham, Fant, Likely, Granson,

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby AllGravy76 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:55 am

The.Big.Spank wrote: Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:41 pm
Goddard wrote: Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:37 pm Just pick up whoever is on waivers.
That was my answer before I read the post
Well, as it is a dynasty league we do not have waivers. Free Agency happens once a week and we have to bid on kickers and when the week to bid on them comes they will all be gone and there will be no one to pick up. If it were that easy to pick one up on waivers I would not ask at all but it is a dynasty. So it is a bit more complex than picking up and streaming kickers week to week. I explain in the post which kickers are available, how many teams will be bidding and why I am even asking a question about a kicker.
Last edited by AllGravy76 on Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby pierson242 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:57 am

AllGravy76 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:55 am
The.Big.Spank wrote: Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:41 pm
Goddard wrote: Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:37 pm Just pick up whoever is on waivers.
That was my answer before I read the post
Well, as it is a dynasty league we do not have waivers. Free Agency happens once a week and we have to bid on kickers and when the week to bid on them comes they will all be gone and there will be no one to pick up. If it were that easy to pick one up on waivers I would not ask at all but it is a dynasty. So it is a bit more complex than picking up and streaming kickers week to week.
That's waivers is it not? I read the post and you said "The top FA kickers available are" so just grab one of those guys, most of them are better than anyone in this deal
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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby AllGravy76 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:02 am

pierson242 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:57 am
AllGravy76 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:55 am
The.Big.Spank wrote: Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:41 pm

That was my answer before I read the post
Well, as it is a dynasty league we do not have waivers. Free Agency happens once a week and we have to bid on kickers and when the week to bid on them comes they will all be gone and there will be no one to pick up. If it were that easy to pick one up on waivers I would not ask at all but it is a dynasty. So it is a bit more complex than picking up and streaming kickers week to week.
That's waivers is it not? I read the post and you said "The top FA kickers available are" so just grab one of those guys, most of them are better than anyone in this deal
And I explained why it is not as easy as just picking one of them up as I may not even get one of them,,, there will be no kickers available after the kicker week comes along before the season.
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby AllGravy76 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:05 am

It is a matter of money, how many teams need kickers, who is available. The reason those ones are there is because we have no had or kicker free agent week yet. They will all be gone. Which is why the trade is a safe play, or if hoping I win one in the bidding war that will ensure is worth the risk
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby pierson242 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:15 am

For 6.4 million I think you could snag a pretty go FA kicker but if your not into that then this isn't a terrible deal. Just an expenisve one
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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby AllGravy76 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:25 am

pierson242 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:15 am For 6.4 million I think you could snag a pretty go FA kicker but if your not into that then this isn't a terrible deal. Just an expenisve one
Well it would only be $4.4m after I drop Jackson. That too is still a bit expensive. Just wondering if the Titans offense will be better and good enough to warrant that. The top kicker available, Vinny, scored 135 last year while Succop 107. There are only 6 kickers available to be bid on that are ahead of Succop and with 9 teams need them I think the avg price for a kicker will go up this year. I think this trade is the safeplay..

My main concern was as said the Titans offense and whether I should push for the 3rd to be added because of the money or since I got about 29m on hand just stop being greedy and take out pick. They added Decker so they have to be somewhat better you would hope
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby AllGravy76 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:25 am

AllGravy76 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:25 am
pierson242 wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:15 am For 6.4 million I think you could snag a pretty go FA kicker but if your not into that then this isn't a terrible deal. Just an expenisve one
Well it would only be $4.4m after I drop Jackson. That too is still a bit expensive. Just wondering if the Titans offense will be better and good enough to warrant that. The top kicker available, Vinny, scored 135 last year while Succop 107. There are only 6 kickers available to be bid on that are ahead of Succop and with 9 teams need them I think the avg price for a kicker will go up this year. I think this trade is the safeplay.. Supply and Demand is more of a thing this year with them...

My main concern was as said the Titans offense and whether I should push for the 3rd to be added because of the money or since I got about 29m on hand just stop being greedy and take out pick. They added Decker so they have to be somewhat better you would hope
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby jeffster » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:57 am

This is confusing because you have a very unusual league format, and are misusing a common term.

A 24-team single-copy league is definitely a rare thing. I can see how that's going to drive QB and kicker prices through the roof, because every NFL team starts 1 at most, and therefore even if all 32 are rostered that leaves a whole lot of teams unable to cover their bye weeks.

Also, as pierson242 pointed out, you're saying you don't have waivers, but what you're describing is, exactly, waivers. Being a dynasty has nothing to do with it.

On top of that, auction and salary cap leagues are are far less common than the alternatives. It's hard to really have a feel for what the numbers you're throwing out there mean - it might help to give the values as a % of your budget.

A few questions I had - what happened to your kicker from last year, if you knew getting a kicker would be so tight in FA? If the average price for a kicker is $1.8m, how is getting a mediocre kicker for $4.4m even in consideration? The average price could double this year and you would still be overpaying. From what you've said so far, I would just bid in FA or hold out for a better deal from this guy for Succop.

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby AllGravy76 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:18 am

jeffster wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:57 am This is confusing because you have a very unusual league format, and are misusing a common term.

A 24-team single-copy league is definitely a rare thing. I can see how that's going to drive QB and kicker prices through the roof, because every NFL team starts 1 at most, and therefore even if all 32 are rostered that leaves a whole lot of teams unable to cover their bye weeks.

Also, as pierson242 pointed out, you're saying you don't have waivers, but what you're describing is, exactly, waivers. Being a dynasty has nothing to do with it.

On top of that, auction and salary cap leagues are are far less common than the alternatives. It's hard to really have a feel for what the numbers you're throwing out there mean - it might help to give the values as a % of your budget.

A few questions I had - what happened to your kicker from last year, if you knew getting a kicker would be so tight in FA? If the average price for a kicker is $1.8m, how is getting a mediocre kicker for $4.4m even in consideration? The average price could double this year and you would still be overpaying. From what you've said so far, I would just bid in FA or hold out for a better deal from this guy for Succop.
They are the same thing. I was just looking at it in the sense with waivers you can just go to the wire an grab someone without having to bid where as in our league you have to bid. So maybe it is semantics but that is how I was viewing it as different whether wrong or right. While I may have confused that was not my intention. I pointed out dynasty because I was thinking of the ESPN type of waivers.

My kicker from last years contract ran out and at the time I did not realize how many teams would need kickers this year. The numbers I threw out were just what it would cost me and I know it is hard for an outsider to know if that money is going to serve my purpose in FA.

I could easily bid that much and win any kicker on the board which is what I told the guy I was dealing with and why I was pushing for a 3rd to be put in the deal. The reason these talks came into existence is he wants me to drop Jackson for him. I told him I needed a kicker but Succop is as you said mediocre and expensive. I just started to think maybe this was the safe play to make sure I get a kicker because while I know I could bid that much and win anyone I would not bid that much on a kicker. The $4.4m this deal would cost me, and I just realized I never pointed out our budget is $85m, my bad... I had all ready told him no before I even posted, but started thinking if I was writing off the Titans offense when maybe I should not. The top kicker available scored just under 30 points more than Succop last year but I know this is a whole new year and that avg price of 1.8 can always change...

Thank you
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby jeffster » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:35 am

I can see the dilemma, since you can pay more for a sure thing now, or risk paying who knows what for a better thing later. It seems to me the only way to really get at this is to examine the other owners that need kickers. Are they all really active, or are some of them less so? How much cap space do they have? Does one of them desperately need a QB that will cost them a fortune? You may be able to refine the picture of the kicker competition a bit better.

If not, it really comes down to risk tolerance. Kickers aren't valuable in normal leagues because they're replaceable; they pretty much all score high. The risk of actually not having one to start, however, is a pretty bad cliff. What if you just bid $3.4m on one of the better guys on waivers? If you would be pretty assured of landing him then you improve your kicker and save a $1m in cap relative to the deal.

Oh, and for future reference the style of waivers commonly used in redraft is called "waiver priority". Another common one is FCFS (first come first serve), and then there's the style that most dynasty leagues use, where you have a budget you have to bid on FAs for, which is called FAB (free agent budget) or BBD (blind bid dollars) or FAAB (free agent auction budget).

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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby ckrumm24 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:46 am

I think I can help here as I can relate to salary dumps etc. Do NOT do this deal unless he gives you the 3rd (at least) for two reasons. 1) you said people already trade 3rd rounders in season for kickers so why would this be different.. you're already taking on salary too so you're already setting for below "market value" for the ease of budget management during FA period. 2) you will pay (salary dump equivalent) about the same for a kicker during your FA period for a better kicker.. if you aren't getting anything in return it doesn't make sense to take on the salary.

This of course is assuming I read the format correctly.
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Re: Overthinking a Kicker???

Postby AllGravy76 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 5:05 am

jeffster wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2017 4:35 am I can see the dilemma, since you can pay more for a sure thing now, or risk paying who knows what for a better thing later. It seems to me the only way to really get at this is to examine the other owners that need kickers. Are they all really active, or are some of them less so? How much cap space do they have? Does one of them desperately need a QB that will cost them a fortune? You may be able to refine the picture of the kicker competition a bit better.

If not, it really comes down to risk tolerance. Kickers aren't valuable in normal leagues because they're replaceable; they pretty much all score high. The risk of actually not having one to start, however, is a pretty bad cliff. What if you just bid $3.4m on one of the better guys on waivers? If you would be pretty assured of landing him then you improve your kicker and save a $1m in cap relative to the deal.

Oh, and for future reference the style of waivers commonly used in redraft is called "waiver priority". Another common one is FCFS (first come first serve), and then there's the style that most dynasty leagues use, where you have a budget you have to bid on FAs for, which is called FAB (free agent budget) or BBD (blind bid dollars) or FAAB (free agent auction budget).
That pretty much made my mind up there unless he throws the pick in, though out of no where another option I like better just came into play. Brandon McManus has just come available and he has a 3yr contract of 2m,3m and 3m. He is a Bronco and I am a Bronco fan so fandom is coming into play. I traded Pharoh Cooper for pick 3.27 in our rookie draft which just finished. With that pick I took Jordan Willis.

Willis has a great Rookie contract of 17:$691k 18:$781k, 19:$871k, 20:$961k but he is just a DL which I can replace easier in FA and he will not be starting right away. I would also have a kicker locked up for 3yrs in Denver for cheaper than Succop would cost...

So this would be

Jordan Willis 17:$691k 18:$781k, 19:$871k, 20:$961k

for

Brandon McManus 17:$2m, 18-19:$3m


I also should have been more clear on the way I described waivers and thank you for pointing that out.... Maybe if it were not for the broken ribs and pain pills along with being stuck on the couch I would not be overthinking kickers lol, that or I need the season to get here...

Thanks
24 Team Dynasty Non PPR
O-(KRFL -2 / 0.4 per PY / PRFL -2 / TD's 6 / 0.1 per RY / 0.1 per RY / TO -2 / 2PC 2 / 1 per 30 RTY)
D -(FF 3 / FR 5 / INT 5 / KRF -2 / PD 2 / PRFL -2 / Sack 5 / SFT 5 / TkA 0.5 / TK Solo 1 / TD's 6 / 1 per 30 RtY)
K - XP-1, FG-3, FG 50+ 2, XPM (-1), FGM 1-19 yrds (-2)

Start - QB, RB, 2WR, TE plus 1 RB/WR/TE
QB - R.Wilson, Bryce Petty
RB - L.Fournette, I.Crowell, K.Farrow, D.Washington
WR- G.Tate, W.Snead, JuJu,
TE - M.Bennett, OJ.Howard, J.O'Shaugnessy, W.Tye
Start a 3-4 or 4-3 always with 4 DB
DL - D.Jones, D.Hunter, J.Bullard, J Willis
LB - J.Perry, P.Posluszny, D.Perryman, P.Worrilow, ZCunningham
DB - A.Colvin, B.Browner, T.Boston, M.Jenkins


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