I think KC trading up for him and taking him in the top 10 ahead of everyone, but Trubisky caused the spike in ADP. On top of that, the QBs this year aren't all that impressive, so I think people are taking the player with the higher perceived ceiling/upside.skip wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:31 pm Patrick Mahomes
I feel like I'm on an island when it comes to Mahomes and I am quite perplexed on exactly how this kid came flying up boards. Somehow from the end of the college season something happened that caused him to move up by leaps and bounds. I find that quite troubling. Either there surfaced a ton of film on this kid that was previously buried or something off the football field caused this to take place. I suspect it is the latter. Maybe the combine, maybe his pro day...whatever the reason, I don't like the idea that rankings get changed so radically after the end of the year. They've changed so much so that he's leapfrogged basically all of the other rookies when at one time all of Trubisky, Watson and Kizer were ranked ahead of him. Looking at their ADP:
February
195 Watson, 227 Kizer, 231 Trubisky, 236 Mahomes
March
185 Watson, 223 Trubisky, 229 Mahomes, 236 Kizer
April
203 Watson, 214 Mahomes, 231 Trubisky, 238 Kizer
May
163 Watson, 169 Mahomes, 207 Kizer, 214 Trubisky
Watson has made a recent push up the boards, though not as radically as Mahomes who has moved up 5-6 full rounds. We've also all seen where these guys are getting selected in our rookie drafts. My suspicion is the moves by both Mahomes and Watson have a lot more to do with perceived situations than anything. It's even more curious how the QB selected first in the NFL draft is being selected last among these four. I don't understand that at all. I know many are concerned with the small number of games that Trubisky played in college but he also was one of the best in the game in 2016, been pretty much a lock as a top pick in the NFL draft since the season, and done nothing to merit somehow falling behind all 3 of the others.
The problem is his mechanics. Footwork can be coached. Improved pocket presence and going thru reads can be coached. But poor delivery is something that is very difficult to coach out of a player. I think too many are seeing repeated visions of Brett Favre working with Reid and thinking Mahomes is going to be able to produce as well. I have a hard time seeing Reid going from a conservative, ball control QB at this stage to one who is as likely to throw a pick as a TD.Goddard wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:41 pm I think KC trading up for him and taking him in the top 10 ahead of everyone, but Trubisky caused the spike in ADP. On top of that, the QBs this year aren't all that impressive, so I think people are taking the player with the higher perceived ceiling/upside.
This might be similar to when Alex Smith got benched for Kaep. Kaep played well initially and was the next best thing, but ended up flaming out (some of it may be due to recent actions by him, but he was already struggling prior to that as well). Not saying Smith should keep that job because he's probably the most overrated starting QB in the league and the Chiefs may have been closer to a superbowl if they actually had someone decent. But this just feels like Mahomes is the next Kaep, except taken a round earlier.skip wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:51 pmThe problem is his mechanics. Footwork can be coached. Improved pocket presence and going thru reads can be coached. But poor delivery is something that is very difficult to coach out of a player. I think too many are seeing repeated visions of Brett Favre working with Reid and thinking Mahomes is going to be able to produce as well. I have a hard time seeing Reid going from a conservative, ball control QB at this stage to one who is as likely to throw a pick as a TD.Goddard wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:41 pm I think KC trading up for him and taking him in the top 10 ahead of everyone, but Trubisky caused the spike in ADP. On top of that, the QBs this year aren't all that impressive, so I think people are taking the player with the higher perceived ceiling/upside.
You're right, of course, that Trubisky was the first QB taking in the NFL draft and I bet most teams had him ranked as the top qb on their boards. It was a weak QB class and we're probably not going to see many HOF's or Fantasy Football studs from it. If I had to guess who will have the most successful career, it might be Trubisky, but as it pertains to fantasy football especially in a weak QB crop, I'd much rather take a chance on a higher ceiling/lower floor kind of guy like Mahomes than I would a safer pick like Trubisky. Maybe Trubisky will prove me wrong, but a lot of the other QB's have more impressive physical tools and higher ceilings. I don't think they'll come close to reaching their ceilings, but again if I had to pick in this crop, it would be a guy like Mahomes.skip wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:31 pm Patrick Mahomes
I feel like I'm on an island when it comes to Mahomes and I am quite perplexed on exactly how this kid came flying up boards. Somehow from the end of the college season something happened that caused him to move up by leaps and bounds. I find that quite troubling. Either there surfaced a ton of film on this kid that was previously buried or something off the football field caused this to take place. I suspect it is the latter. Maybe the combine, maybe his pro day...whatever the reason, I don't like the idea that rankings get changed so radically after the end of the year. They've changed so much so that he's leapfrogged basically all of the other rookies when at one time all of Trubisky, Watson and Kizer were ranked ahead of him. Looking at their ADP:
February
195 Watson, 227 Kizer, 231 Trubisky, 236 Mahomes
March
185 Watson, 223 Trubisky, 229 Mahomes, 236 Kizer
April
203 Watson, 214 Mahomes, 231 Trubisky, 238 Kizer
May
163 Watson, 169 Mahomes, 207 Kizer, 214 Trubisky
Watson has made a recent push up the boards, though not as radically as Mahomes who has moved up 5-6 full rounds. We've also all seen where these guys are getting selected in our rookie drafts. My suspicion is the moves by both Mahomes and Watson have a lot more to do with perceived situations than anything. It's even more curious how the QB selected first in the NFL draft is being selected last among these four. I don't understand that at all. I know many are concerned with the small number of games that Trubisky played in college but he also was one of the best in the game in 2016, been pretty much a lock as a top pick in the NFL draft since the season, and done nothing to merit somehow falling behind all 3 of the others.
I agree here, he's too streaky for me. I'd rather a consistent 10pts/week rather than 2pts one week and 20pts the next (just as an example). But that's just me.
Yeah, I hate streaks where my guy scores like this for the last ten weeks of the fantasy season:Belichickians wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:22 pmI agree here, he's too streaky for me. I'd rather a consistent 10pts/week rather than 2pts one week and 20pts the next (just as an example). But that's just me.
