Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

This is the place for team advice - should I make this trade, should I draft that player, etc.
AndrewS
Starter
Starter
Posts: 504
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:29 am

Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby AndrewS » Thu May 18, 2017 1:51 pm

I'm new to this but own Doug Baldwin. Several inquiries have been made but i still don't know how to equate rookie picks with current players. In the current draft what pick (or picks) would DB be worth? Is he worth 2 seconds? Thanks for your help!!!
Team 1 - 12 Team Half PPR
Start 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, 1 D/ST
Total Starters = 10
Russel Wilson, Eli Manning
Bell, Howard, Hyde, J Williams, Smallwood, A Jones, J Allen, D Washington
M Thomas, B Cooks, D Hopkins, A Jeffery, Meredith, Boyd, Caroo, Smelter, T Benjamin, C Hansen
Ebron, Butt, V McDonald, G Kittle
2018 1, 1, 3, 4 2019 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4

Team 2 - 12 Team Half PPR
Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K
Total Starters = 10
Brees, Bortles, Goff, Fitzpatrick
D Freeman, L Miller, JStew, CJ Anderson, J Hill, J Williams
TY Hilton, K Allen, A Thielen, Tate, Stills, Hogan, Wheaton, Hansen
Graham, Walker, Z Miller

Team 3 - 12 Team Full PPR
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 4 FLEX (RB/WR/TE)
Total Starters = 8
A Rodgers
Ingram, Ware, Martin, L Murray, AP, Artis-Payne, Quizz Rodgers, D Lewis, R Jennings, Josh Ferguson
AJ Green, J Landry, D Baldwin, E Decker, J Brown, R Cobb, J Janis, T Smith
J Reed, E Ebron, E Swoope, J Heuerman

tannert21
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 189
Joined: Mon May 19, 2014 7:51 pm

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby tannert21 » Thu May 18, 2017 1:54 pm

Baldwin is easily worth a 1st. I've seen him dealt from anywhere between 1.03- to bottom 1sts. But I'd want at least a top 6 pick on this rookie draft and if it's 1.05--1.06 I'd want a 2nd tossed possibly, but wouldn't be a deal breaker. Also depends if you're competing or not. If you're not then he could go for cheaper, if you are then I'd still stick to top 6.

User avatar
JwazTheGreat
Practice Squad
Practice Squad
Posts: 179
Joined: Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:36 pm

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby JwazTheGreat » Thu May 18, 2017 1:59 pm

I'm currently targeting Baldwin myself. I don't have a 1st so I offered 2 2nds (12th & 14th overall) and though it came close wasn't enough. Baldwin is tough because he's better than most ppl think. I'd need an early first as well.
10-Team 2QB
1/2PPR Starters= 2QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX (Pass 4pt, Run 6pt)

QBs: A. Rodgers, R. Wilson, Tua
RBs: S. Barkley, K. Hunt, D. Henderson, C. Hubbard, JD McKisssic, Devonta Freeman, Duke Johnson
WRs:K. Allen, A. Robinson, C. Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster, E. Moore, S. Shepard, K. Golladay, Antonio Brown, K. Bourne, J. Reynolds, J. Guyton
TEs: D. Waller, Z. Ertz, H. Henry

AndrewS
Starter
Starter
Posts: 504
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 7:29 am

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby AndrewS » Thu May 18, 2017 2:10 pm

i picked him up in a 6 team dispersal draft as my 3rd pick (16 overall) after i netted AJ Green and Landry. It's a full PPR and i can start 1-5 WR so i tried to build a strong core of youngish receivers. Thanks for your advice!
Team 1 - 12 Team Half PPR
Start 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE, 1 D/ST
Total Starters = 10
Russel Wilson, Eli Manning
Bell, Howard, Hyde, J Williams, Smallwood, A Jones, J Allen, D Washington
M Thomas, B Cooks, D Hopkins, A Jeffery, Meredith, Boyd, Caroo, Smelter, T Benjamin, C Hansen
Ebron, Butt, V McDonald, G Kittle
2018 1, 1, 3, 4 2019 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4

Team 2 - 12 Team Half PPR
Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K
Total Starters = 10
Brees, Bortles, Goff, Fitzpatrick
D Freeman, L Miller, JStew, CJ Anderson, J Hill, J Williams
TY Hilton, K Allen, A Thielen, Tate, Stills, Hogan, Wheaton, Hansen
Graham, Walker, Z Miller

Team 3 - 12 Team Full PPR
Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 4 FLEX (RB/WR/TE)
Total Starters = 8
A Rodgers
Ingram, Ware, Martin, L Murray, AP, Artis-Payne, Quizz Rodgers, D Lewis, R Jennings, Josh Ferguson
AJ Green, J Landry, D Baldwin, E Decker, J Brown, R Cobb, J Janis, T Smith
J Reed, E Ebron, E Swoope, J Heuerman

User avatar
Goddard
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 27771
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:21 am

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby Goddard » Thu May 18, 2017 2:14 pm

Definitely a 1st, but probably mid to late-ish.

User avatar
slacker
Role Player
Role Player
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Feb 11, 2014 8:44 pm

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby slacker » Thu May 18, 2017 2:36 pm

Andrew, a good way to see how a player correlates to draft picks is to use ADP data. Find out where your player is then compare it to the nearest draft pick. It's not foolproof but gives you a good ballpark as to player values while you are adjusting to dynasty.
12 team PPR, 22 Roster, QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 FLEX, K, DEF
Rivers, Eli
Watkins, Evans, Keenan, Hopkins, Pryor, R. Matthews, Marshall, P. Richardson, CPatt
McCoy, Zeke, Rawls, Ware
Gronk, Njoku, Butt, Everette, Higbee

User avatar
Goddard
GOAT
GOAT
Posts: 27771
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:21 am

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby Goddard » Thu May 18, 2017 2:40 pm

slacker wrote: Thu May 18, 2017 2:36 pm Andrew, a good way to see how a player correlates to draft picks is to use ADP data. Find out where your player is then compare it to the nearest draft pick. It's not foolproof but gives you a good ballpark as to player values while you are adjusting to dynasty.
This isn't bad advice, but I'd be careful with ADP when it comes to rookies. For some reason they go much later than they should.

joshuawrobbins
Starter
Starter
Posts: 532
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:29 pm

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby joshuawrobbins » Thu May 18, 2017 7:49 pm

I think Baldwin is worth around the 1.04-1.06 range. Actually pretty cheap for a WR1, very underrated WR

ESKAY
Captain
Captain
Posts: 946
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 9:41 am

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby ESKAY » Thu May 18, 2017 7:54 pm

I would love to acquire DB myself, and if you wanted two seconds I would give that in a heartbeat! I agree with all the guys here he is worth a mid first. Very underrated.

stoneghost28
Pro Bowler
Pro Bowler
Posts: 1080
Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:17 pm

Re: Doug Baldwin fantasy value in picks

Postby stoneghost28 » Thu May 18, 2017 10:07 pm

joshuawrobbins wrote: Thu May 18, 2017 7:49 pm I think Baldwin is worth around the 1.04-1.06 range. Actually pretty cheap for a WR1, very underrated WR
Here's two examples that happened today:

I offered the 1.8, an '18 3rd and JJ Nelson for Baldwin and an '18 5th

Rejected

Counter was the same deal, but I give up my 1.6. after some debate (and throwing up the trade on here), I agreed to the deal (it helped that I already owned Keenan Allen AND Tyrell Williams, and if Mike Williams and not Dalvin Cook was the guy remaining at 1.6, I'd be totally <word I can't say> although that was only a secondary motivation>.

Later on I offered the 1.6 and an '18 3rd for Baldwin.

The owner (who has rejected every single offer I've made in the past year w/no comments, and no counters) finally responded for the first time, countering with:

I give up the 1.6, and 1.10 and I get Baldwin and the 2.10

Kinda wished he'd kept his vow of silence. Hell no do I do that deal.

Anyway I view him as an extreme value buy low. He's been a WR1 in back to back years including a bottom of the barrel horror show year for Wilson in 2016. I think it's reasonable to argue that the current two year version of Baldwin is a top 15-18 WR in the league with top 10 upside and around 20th-25th floor. That's valuable. I love rookie picks but 50% of firsts flop, and what, 72 or 73% of seconds flop. Additionally this is a bad WR crop in terms of guys with high floors, most of the crop seems to have a combo of low floor, low ceiling, or low floor, moderately high ceiling, and that is super risky. I'd rather buy Baldwin at that 1.6 valuation and a toss in, and deal him when he's 29 or 30 for picks/or prospects.

Oh btw, a #Dynastytrades Twitter poll from right after Valentines day asked this very question and the answer was:

Baldwin's value in '17 pick:
Mid First-28%
Low First-39%
High-Mid Second-38%
Other: 5%

That got more than 200 votes overall so a pretty good sampling of the obsessive portion of the Dynasty Football contingent.


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Mtt33 and 18 guests