Was offered the 1.14...

[Fins3]

Was just offered the 1.14 for Gillislee and my 2018 1st. I don't have a 1st or 2nd this year but have thought about trying to make a move to get in on what looks to be a decent class. Made the playoffs in this 16 team league last year and I'm looking to contend this season. Should I make this move or use the 2018 1st to pursue someone thats proven?

16 team 1 PPR
QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex/Flex

QB:Manning, Foles
RB:Demarco Murray, CJA, Gillislee, Barner, Collins, McFadden
WR: AJG, Landry, Fitz, Cobb, John Brown, R Matthews, Richardson, Aiken
TE: Fleener, D Allen

[cvbuc]

No way you should give up a first in addition for Gillislee in that deal for such a late pick. Move on. You can do better.

[Coogan Football]

I would offer Gilli + your 2018 2nd and see where that gets you

[Goddard]

Wouldn't give up your 18 1st. Agree with offering the 18 2nd instead.

[SpartacusPTech]

People are overvaluing Gillislee. He is worth maybe a mid 2nd round pick at best. To move from a current years late first round pick to the next years for a random 1st usually takes at least a 2nd. The value is right and it's a good starting offer, unless you think you can get a first for Gillislee this is a fair trade.

[M-Dub]

People are overvaluing Gillislee. He is worth maybe a mid 2nd round pick at best. To move from a current years late first round pick to the next years for a random 1st usually takes at least a 2nd. The value is right and it's a good starting offer, unless you think you can get a first for Gillislee this is a fair trade.

I've never understood this logic. In a 16-team league, the likelihood of a truly random 2018 1st being as good or better than the 1.14 is 87.5%. I think those odds more than make up for the inconvenience of having to wait another year to cash it in. Unless the OP is absolutely convinced he's going to be playing in the championship game, that's just bad value, regardless of how you feel about Gillislee.

[onetwothree]

Won't consider the deal until 1.14 on the clock.

If it's someone you want, it'll be easier to pull the trigger. I still don't think it's a good deal before or during but it takes some risk out.

I'd target something between 10-12 if you were going to do that.

[Fins3]

People are overvaluing Gillislee. He is worth maybe a mid 2nd round pick at best. To move from a current years late first round pick to the next years for a random 1st usually takes at least a 2nd. The value is right and it's a good starting offer, unless you think you can get a first for Gillislee this is a fair trade.

I've never understood this logic. In a 16-team league, the likelihood of a truly random 2018 1st being as good or better than the 1.14 is 87.5%. I think those odds more than make up for the inconvenience of having to wait another year to cash it in. Unless the OP is absolutely convinced he's going to be playing in the championship game, that's just bad value, regardless of how you feel about Gillislee.

So you think even if I were to take out Gillislee and make it just my 2018 1st for 1.14 it still wouldn't be worth it? I get the logic of chances are better that the pick won't be 1.15 or 1.16 next year but I feel that the delayed year of production is lost value as well.

[SpartacusPTech]

People are overvaluing Gillislee. He is worth maybe a mid 2nd round pick at best. To move from a current years late first round pick to the next years for a random 1st usually takes at least a 2nd. The value is right and it's a good starting offer, unless you think you can get a first for Gillislee this is a fair trade.

I've never understood this logic. In a 16-team league, the likelihood of a truly random 2018 1st being as good or better than the 1.14 is 87.5%. I think those odds more than make up for the inconvenience of having to wait another year to cash it in. Unless the OP is absolutely convinced he's going to be playing in the championship game, that's just bad value, regardless of how you feel about Gillislee.

If I'm being asked to wait a year to cash in on a first round pick I need some incentive.

[M-Dub]

People are overvaluing Gillislee. He is worth maybe a mid 2nd round pick at best. To move from a current years late first round pick to the next years for a random 1st usually takes at least a 2nd. The value is right and it's a good starting offer, unless you think you can get a first for Gillislee this is a fair trade.

I've never understood this logic. In a 16-team league, the likelihood of a truly random 2018 1st being as good or better than the 1.14 is 87.5%. I think those odds more than make up for the inconvenience of having to wait another year to cash it in. Unless the OP is absolutely convinced he's going to be playing in the championship game, that's just bad value, regardless of how you feel about Gillislee.

So you think even if I were to take out Gillislee and make it just my 2018 1st for 1.14 it still wouldn't be worth it? I get the logic of chances are better that the pick won't be 1.15 or 1.16 next year but I feel that the delayed year of production is lost value as well.

I don't think it's that simple. All things being equal, a pick this year is better/more valuable that the same pick a year from now. But you can still make an educated guess about how good that future pick will be. You would need to make an honest evaluation of your team (assuming this is your '18 1st we're talking about) and try to project where you can reasonably expect that pick to fall. If you think you're a legit contender and it'll be in the 12-16 range, then there is absolutely some value in cashing in a similar pick a year early. In that case, you'd have to decide if Gillislee is worth the instant gratification of making that pick this year. If it projects in the 7-11 range, then I think you're getting closer to even value with the 1.14 this year. If it projects as a top 5-6 pick, then yes, I think you'd be losing value even on a straight-up trade, even when you factor in the one year of whatever production you'd get out of the 14th pick in this year's draft.

If I'm being asked to wait a year to cash in on a first round pick I need some incentive.

I don't disagree. I'm just saying that if the future pick projects to be significantly higher, that should be all the incentive you need.

[Steelersfan]

Pass.

[Coogan Football]

If I'm being asked to wait a year to cash in on a first round pick I need some incentive.

Preach it, buddy

[SpartacusPTech]

I don't disagree. I'm just saying that if the future pick projects to be significantly higher, that should be all the incentive you need.

If the team making the offer is a bottom feeder sure and there is a pretty good chance that it will be top 3 then sure a straight swap makes sense. Outside that there is no guarantee. No one can say for sure where any future pick will land, and anyone who tells you otherwise is fooling themselves. This draft is deep.