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First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:22 pm
by Rotolibrarian
What are your thoughts on how to handle first round rookie picks outside of the top six? I have the 1.07, 1.08, and 1.09 in one of my leagues, and I want to deal them because I'm in win-now mode for 2017. I know conventional wisdom is to wait to deal until I'm on the clock, but I wonder if it holds true with these particular picks. I'm thinking they might not be as attractive after the NFL Draft next week. Thoughts?

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:43 pm
by Novacane
I disagree. These are very likely to increase in value, especially because you have multiple consecutive pick. Right now we have a consensus top tier of 6 and it is hard to imagine many landing spots that would cause any of those prospects to drop too signifantly. But someone and prob more than one guy will get drafted in a good situation and start to seperate from the large group of similarly tiered players just after the top 6. Owners whi have been eyeing their "late first/early second" guy are going to want to move up. The fact that you control a run of 3 spots gives you a lot of leverage going into, and during, the rookie draft. Hold them IMO.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:00 pm
by Crwdstunna
Novacane wrote:
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:43 pm
I disagree. These are very likely to increase in value, especially because you have multiple consecutive pick. Right now we have a consensus top tier of 6 and it is hard to imagine many landing spots that would cause any of those prospects to drop too signifantly. But someone and prob more than one guy will get drafted in a good situation and start to seperate from the large group of similarly tiered players just after the top 6. Owners whi have been eyeing their "late first/early second" guy are going to want to move up. The fact that you control a run of 3 spots gives you a lot of leverage going into, and during, the rookie draft. Hold them IMO.
This. You should not be entertaining the thought of trading those picks right now.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:03 pm
by Friction
I agree with Cane. There will be somebody or body's that will jump into that six or seven spot for sure. Most likely it will be a Kamara, Rossi, TE, or maybe even a Godwin/Zayed type. I know those are the prospects being discussed at seven or higher now, but the draft will really solidify it and/or cause an argument for one or more of them to possibly jump into the top six.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:52 pm
by Weeman
I'd wait, you never know what could happen. With rookie fever and people not always doing their homework you could land some major value if one of those top 6 fall or guys within your tier have great landing spots.

I know dynasty guys who would draft Dede Westbrook and even Tarik Cohen way earlier than most. Sometimes you follow a player in college and just want him. Or a guy lands on your favorite team or a destination that you feel is favorable. Plenty of people will overpay with proven players for those later picks and your right to be thinking about it. Just play it cool. You're going to get offers.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:03 pm
by jtd1387
1.07, in particular, is a hold right now. Of all the picks in the draft, it is the most likely to go up in value.
If you look at Arpil ADP, the top 6 rookies are all between picks 24 and 45 overall, and the 7th rookie is at 72 overall. If Kamara, Foreman, etc. go to an awesome spot, I think they will jump to right behind the top 6 there.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:46 am
by clarion contrarion
to echo the herd , keep them and wait until the picks are OTC , one of the top 6 could drop as someone goes full homer when kamara or foreman or ross go to their favorite team . I also as someone mentioned love to control a block of picks as then you can destroy a tier and a manager could freak out and overpay because he has a guy that won't make it out of your block of picks.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:01 am
by Rotolibrarian
clarion contrarion wrote:
Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:46 am
to echo the herd , keep them and wait until the picks are OTC , one of the top 6 could drop as someone goes full homer when kamara or foreman or ross go to their favorite team . I also as someone mentioned love to control a block of picks as then you can destroy a tier and a manager could freak out and overpay because he has a guy that won't make it out of your block of picks.
Thanks for the feedback all. I'll be patient and hold steady! :thumbup:

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:38 am
by GhostOfMasoli
Not only do you have players that may go a leaguemate's favorite team but also you start factoring in the guys that have rock-solid landing spots with great opportunity. Unless an offer blows you away, I wouldn't sell a pick until at least the NFL draft takes place (6 Days)

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:02 am
by Goddard
If you're moving them for players, hold till the draft. If you're looking to move up, do it now because the earlier picks will rise in value even more than yours.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:03 am
by gilbertfl6
Patience is a virtue. Wait for it.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:02 am
by JJDubya
Although I can't disagree with what has been written above (good advice) I did just make a decision to trade my 1.7 for Henry, thinking that he's a much better prospect than what I can get at 1.7. If you can get what you consider to be a better player (who can help your team now) than anyone available at 1.7 then I say go for it. If you're just moving for the sake of moving, not really any urgency one week away from the big day.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:35 am
by Tyrober
I'd hold for now unless its a great offer. Maybe try to see what the 3,4 and 5 guys want and see if they would be interested in going from there to 8+9 and you keep the 7th. Someone should separate themselves in the 2nd tier and theres also a possibility someone from the tier1 six falls to 7. It only takes one guy in the top 6 to reach for someone so the 7 is definitely a hold.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 2:29 pm
by ESKAY
I am also holding onto pick 7 and I saw where JuJu thought the Cowboys have showed the most interest in him. If that's the case he may be pick 7 for me.

Re: First round rookie picks after 1.06: try to sell now or later?

Posted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:34 pm
by gogobradyarm
To me, this is entirely dependent on the offer. While it's true the pick's value will likely rise and peak when you're OTC, you have to consider sometimes people make an offer you can't refuse. I owned 1.07 and 1.08 last night when I was out with some league mates, an owner proposed 1.12 and an 18 1st for 1.07. That was a snap accept for me, its too much value to say no to, and while likely to get an offer of similar value when OTC, sometimes you need to jump when the offer is hot!