Michael Thomas vs. Allen Robinson

[alphaxray]

I prefer Robinson.

[theone]

Thomas. Better route runner, more separation, far better hands, just the better overall receiver. ARob is a more explosive jump ball artist but struggles at times with the catch and getting separation. We don't know JAX or NO long-term QB plans but NO obviously is better, safer in short term. Age difference is minimal.

[RolandsTower]

Thomas easily for me, it ain't close. Thomas looked elite last year as a rookie, and now is going to have his looks increase with NO dealing Cooks.

ARob looked brutally bad for most of last season, his value lies somewhere between last year's and 2015, which easily puts him behind Thomas for me. Hell, last year Marqise Lee was the WR to own in Jax.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Thomas. Better route runner, more separation, far better hands, just the better overall receiver. ARob is a more explosive jump ball artist but struggles at times with the catch and getting separation. We don't know JAX or NO long-term QB plans but NO obviously is better, safer in short term. Age difference is minimal.

IMO, it doesn't seem like you have watched much of Robinson. He is a very good route runner. He just looks like a jump-ball specialist when Bortles throws jump balls. As for hands, I have seen Thomas make amazing catches and drop some balls, I have seen Robinson make amazing catches and drop some balls. As for separation, who was guarding Thomas vs. who was guarding Robinson?

I have Thomas in 1 league and Robinson in 1 league. I am happy to have both, but I am not giving up an elite level player for a pretty good player in an elite situation. Brees is in the last year of his contract, and the Saints have a terrible cap situation. They are probably 1 more 7-9, 8-8 season from blowing it up, and then you will need at least a premium pick to close the gap between the 2.

[smmcfarl]

Right now I like ARob a little more than Thomas but not by much. We've seen what ARob can do with Bortles at QB but what will Thomas do with a lesser QB when Brees is gone.

[Steelersfan]

ARob should still be in a tier above Thomas and I prefer ARob.

[Vcize]

Man is Robinson ever a sell right now.

Can someone cite me one example of a guy that broke out, then had a perfectly healthy season as bad as ARob's, and then bounced back to become a top 10 dynasty valued player again?

When young guys have healthy really really bad seasons post-breakout, it's usually a sign that the breakout was the fluke, not the bad season.

There are just way too many parallels to Braylon Edwards with ARob. Poor play blamed solely on the QB. Poor efficiency numbers even as teammates with that same terrible QB put up better efficiency numbers. Both their breakout and bust seasons were nearly identical numbers wise. Heck, they're even the same exact size (not that this part really matters).

Breakout year:
Robinson: 80-1400-14, 304 FPts
Edwards: 80-1300-16, 306 FPts

Bust season:
Robinson: 73-883-6, 197 FPts
Edwards: 55-873-3, 161 FPts

Just way, way too much risk there that this guy will buck all the odds and bounce back from this. I mean Bortles sucks but there was still 4000 yards and 23 TDs to go around last year. Are we really expecting much more than that out of the Jags going forward?

[Kleva1]

I was hoping to find stats/charts on the amount of times Thomas drew CB1 coverage. I'm sure with some of Cooks stinkers and Brees'chemistry with Thomas defenses may have started putting CB1 on Thomas and kept the safety over the top of Cooks. It's definitely going to be tougher without a weapon like Cooks.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Man is Robinson ever a sell right now.

Can someone cite me one example of a guy that broke out, then had a perfectly healthy season as bad as ARob's, and then bounced back to become a top 10 dynasty valued player again?

When young guys have healthy really really bad seasons post-breakout, it's usually a sign that the breakout was the fluke, not the bad season.

There are just way too many parallels to Braylon Edwards with ARob. Poor play blamed solely on the QB. Poor efficiency numbers even as teammates with that same terrible QB put up better efficiency numbers. Both their breakout and bust seasons were nearly identical numbers wise. Heck, they're even the same exact size (not that this part really matters).

Breakout year:
Robinson: 80-1400-14, 304 FPts
Edwards: 80-1300-16, 306 FPts

Bust season:
Robinson: 73-883-6, 197 FPts
Edwards: 55-873-3, 161 FPts

Just way, way too much risk there that this guy will buck all the odds and bounce back from this. I mean Bortles sucks but there was still 4000 yards and 23 TDs to go around last year. Are we really expecting much more than that out of the Jags going forward?

All the odds of your sample size of 1? Seems a little dramatic. A sample size of 1 is as useful as a sample size of 0.

No 2 situations are ever the same, and you aren't going to find many players that did what Robinson did at such a young age, so finding really good comparables becomes even more difficult. That said, there are some positive examples of players breaking out, having bad seasons, and then bouncing back. A few off the top of my head:
Larry Fitzgerald in 2012
Randy Moss from 2004-2006 (last year with Vikings and 2 with Raiders)
Calvin Johnson 3rd year (missed 2 games, but y/c, y/tgt, catch rate, TD rate all dropped after his breakout year 2. It was talked about a lot that offseason on Detroit radio.)

I am sure there are plenty more examples of players never coming back after their bust, and players bouncing back.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

I was hoping to find stats/charts on the amount of times Thomas drew CB1 coverage. I'm sure with some of Cooks stinkers and Brees'chemistry with Thomas defenses may have started putting CB1 on Thomas and kept the safety over the top of Cooks. It's definitely going to be tougher without a weapon like Cooks.

I would love to see this data as well.

The only Saints game where I watched the coverage closely was the Arizona game, particularly because A) Peterson shadowed Cooks the previous year when they played, and B) Peterson said leading up to the game that Cooks was the top priority. For the most part, Peterson stayed on one side during the first half when Cooks went off, and neither Cooks or Thomas had a catch against him in the first. Cooks' 4 first half catches were against Mathieu and Cooper, with a TD on each. The 2nd half Peterson followed Cooks more.

Too small a sample size to say anything, but at least the Cards original game plan was different than the year before against the Saints, probably due to Thomas coming on.

[cp3]

Man is Robinson ever a sell right now.

Can someone cite me one example of a guy that broke out, then had a perfectly healthy season as bad as ARob's, and then bounced back to become a top 10 dynasty valued player again?

When young guys have healthy really really bad seasons post-breakout, it's usually a sign that the breakout was the fluke, not the bad season.

There are just way too many parallels to Braylon Edwards with ARob. Poor play blamed solely on the QB. Poor efficiency numbers even as teammates with that same terrible QB put up better efficiency numbers. Both their breakout and bust seasons were nearly identical numbers wise. Heck, they're even the same exact size (not that this part really matters).

Breakout year:
Robinson: 80-1400-14, 304 FPts
Edwards: 80-1300-16, 306 FPts

Bust season:
Robinson: 73-883-6, 197 FPts
Edwards: 55-873-3, 161 FPts

Just way, way too much risk there that this guy will buck all the odds and bounce back from this. I mean Bortles sucks but there was still 4000 yards and 23 TDs to go around last year. Are we really expecting much more than that out of the Jags going forward?

Breakout year:
Calvin Johnson (2008): 78/1331/12
AROB (2015): 80/1400/14

Bust year:
Calvin Johnson (2009): 67/984/5
AROB (2016): 73/883/6

So there's 1 example.

[pierson242]

Man is Robinson ever a sell right now.

Can someone cite me one example of a guy that broke out, then had a perfectly healthy season as bad as ARob's, and then bounced back to become a top 10 dynasty valued player again?

When young guys have healthy really really bad seasons post-breakout, it's usually a sign that the breakout was the fluke, not the bad season.

There are just way too many parallels to Braylon Edwards with ARob. Poor play blamed solely on the QB. Poor efficiency numbers even as teammates with that same terrible QB put up better efficiency numbers. Both their breakout and bust seasons were nearly identical numbers wise. Heck, they're even the same exact size (not that this part really matters).

Breakout year:
Robinson: 80-1400-14, 304 FPts
Edwards: 80-1300-16, 306 FPts

Bust season:
Robinson: 73-883-6, 197 FPts
Edwards: 55-873-3, 161 FPts

Just way, way too much risk there that this guy will buck all the odds and bounce back from this. I mean Bortles sucks but there was still 4000 yards and 23 TDs to go around last year. Are we really expecting much more than that out of the Jags going forward?

Breakout year:
Calvin Johnson (2008): 78/1331/12
AROB (2015): 80/1400/14

Bust year:
Calvin Johnson (2009): 67/984/5
AROB (2016): 73/883/6

So there's 1 example.

Thank you! Everyone is to blinded by Thomas year he had when he was drawing single coverage from the CB2 where Arob was drawing CB1 coverage and sometimes double covered. But Arob but up his breakout year with CB1 coverage so we know he can do it! As for Thomas your all assuming he can maintain his numbers being double covered until we see more it's obviously Arob we've seen him do it

[MEuRaH]

I'll take Thomas.

I think they're close enough to equal to let QB be the deciding factor.

[mabeibefunny]

Everyone pretty much covered both sides, but I'm going to take Arob, and not for any of the other reasons.... I hate having WRs on NO, they spread the ball around too much and even though there are big stat years for people in there, week to week could go from boom-to-bust.... maybe it is just me being still scarred from M. Colson, but one week would be 3 for 40, the next 12 for 130 and 2 TDs.... Just too much volatility for my liking.

Not taking Arob because I have him, but if two players are pretty much split down the middle IMO, I take the one that is the go-to target and I can reasonably expect to get looks every week.

[thomasscheeks]

Thank you! Everyone is to blinded by Thomas year he had when he was drawing single coverage from the CB2 where Arob was drawing CB1 coverage and sometimes double covered. But Arob but up his breakout year with CB1 coverage so we know he can do it! As for Thomas your all assuming he can maintain his numbers being double covered until we see more it's obviously Arob we've seen him do it

I don't see anyone double covering Thomas with Snead and Ginn in the mix. Thomas will be fine except for the fact that the CB1 will pay more attention to him, which I think he will handle. He looked really good, he'll be alright.