Tyler Lockett

[stoneghost28]

People overvalued him as a 1st round pick a year ago. There is no way he is worth that. Middle 2nd as a low upside player. His value is in return yardage leagues. Far too many better options out there.

This exactly.

This isn't redraft. It's dynasty. How can the jury be in already on owners who may have traded 1.10 for Lockett last season? We know for a fact that Tyler Boyd's better than Lockett? Leonte Carroo's better?

Lockett went late 4th in a recent industry startup. Boyd and Carroo were drafted MUCH later.

It's pretty ridiculous hyperbole, and the most absurd part is making firm declarations. It's odd especially because I love Tyrell and have tried to pick him up everywhere since last fall immediately after Allen went down. I was too slow to act in the preseason when I'd already heard some people I respect talk him up with convincing arguments, but I was able to acquire him for myself in multiple leagues and via trades in an additional too. With all this being said, I'm a major Lockett fan.

His one healthy NFL season, in '15, in terms of efficiency he was #6 in Kelley's production premium, #34 in target premium, #12 in yards per target, #7 in catch rate, #1 in RZ catch rate, #3 in fantasy points per target. Superb #'s. Now move on to '16, the Seahawks running game implodes, falls apart to an even greater degree than in '15, Wilson spends most of the year hurt and stinking it up, and Lockett's #'s collapse, and this is before you consider that Lockett was seriously injured going into the season and only appeared to be fully back and healthy by December's games and you see the uptick in consistency by that point with him receiving the same # of targets or more in 4 consecutive games before the leg injury that finished his season off. His efficiency #'s not surprising tailed off to #32 production premium, #37 target premium, #14 yards per target, #42 catch rate, and #23 in fantasy points per target. Not goaded but not surprising when you consider that for all but around 4 games of the year he was playing hurt and his QB's production fell off a cliff due to injury as well and the running game got worse, and just as importantly, he was WR27 in August and 3.12 in start up ADP, and now is WR52 in April with a 9.3 start up ADP. Great for start ups in terms of value.Trading is another story.

I just landed Lockett in a deal, based on ADP it was an overpay, but I'm happy with it because I believe a healthy Locket is a low end WR2 with upside, and at worst a high end WR3, but he's a WR5 right now based on ADP. I dealt my 2.5 this year, a 2nd I acquired in 2018 from a title contender (he has A. Brown, Julio Jones, K. Allen, M. Evans, R. Wilson at QB, streamable TE's, his only weakness is RB and he traded up for the 1.2 and still has all those assets to go with Duke, and several other stream worthy satellite pass catching backs) and Stills for him. I still have 5 firsts, and 5 seconds with this orphan rebuild squad, so losing the '17 2.5 isn't going to hurt much (I still have the 2.1, 2.3, 2.7, 2.8 and 2.9) and now after acquiring Meredith, Coleman, Treadwell and Hurns in other trades to go with Dev Parker and M. Lee, I feel like I have a nice blend of upside plays with serviceable bench players at WR, and that's important considering this draft doesn't feature a lot of high upside talent at WR, and next year's draft seems to be similar (and I probably have the ammo to target Sutton if I want instead of a Barkley or Guice or Chubb). I planned to use trades to add WR talent, and the draft to address RB this year and so far it seems to be working.

With regards to Lockett, again, I can understand why people aren't as high as I and some others are on him. He hasn't put together an elite season in terms of production yet, just in efficiency, and he's coming off a disappointing injury riddled season, so if you're betting on him, you're hoping that he's more the '15 Lockett than the '16, and if you're selling, you think situation combined with '15 and '16 suggest he won't be worth more than his current start up ADP perhaps? That's where I think things have truly derailed. Lockett at WR52 just makes zero sense to me. Downgrade him due to a poor '16, fine, but down grading him a full 25 spots? That seems absurd. I also think the mid 2nd talk is a bit silly, mid 2nd's are basically 20-25% chance of doing what Lockett already did as a rookie in terms of efficiency.

We'll see whose right given time, I think there are justifiable reasons for supporting either argument, I just find the pro-Lockett arguments more convincing when you take into account the situation combined with the metrics of the player.

[stoneghost28]

I got an owner in my league to OVERPAY like crazy for him in a 16 teamer.

I Got: D Lewis, TyWill, 2018 2nd
I Gave: Lockett

Very happy with the deal.. Someone reading the forum will look at that and be like, "I would trade that for Lockett." AND you sir are an idiot lol

A RB in a bad situation, a pick in a draft that may or may not have depth, and Ty for Lockett. To me the other owner overpaid, in that it should have been unnecessary to add the 2nd or Lewis. Otoh, that 2nd doesn't promise to be much, Lewis' situation at this point is borderline dire, and Ty and Lockett for me are similar in terms of valuation, though the current ADP charts have Ty going 2 rounds earlier. I have trouble buying that argument as Ty will have to deal with Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, Benjamin and Inman for targets, maybe Gates too and Gordon. I love Williams as a long term investment, but currently his situation is a bit rough, definitely rougher than Lockett's.

I don't see that as an overpay like crazy, and probably the worst aspect of the deal to my mind is that he came away with the best asset, and it's not hard to imagine this being a 2 quarters and a nickel for a dollar deal 2 or 3 years from now. You will need Ty to blow up, or to land a stud with that second to probably win the deal. Are you that confident? I can't see why. I do agree it was an overpay, but I also think he's more likely to come away w/the most valuable asset a year or two from now, and in the short term as well.

[stoneghost28]

People overvalued him as a 1st round pick a year ago. There is no way he is worth that. Middle 2nd as a low upside player. His value is in return yardage leagues. Far too many better options out there.

This makes no sense to me. He was incredibly efficient as a rookie. There's a reason his stock blew through the roof, and Harmon is only part of it, guys like Kelley, and guys at rotoviz and beyond were touting him before the Harmon followers hyped his price up to borderline absurd levels by the end of the summer. The only concerns I have with him in terms of upside reside with the competition for targets, and the seeming interest in running the ball more (but that's a F.O. issue-they seem to think running the ball more will keep Wilson healthier, I'd suggest not spending the league least, by a substantial margin, on the OL is good strategy to actually promote Wilson's health) and his health. He got dinged up at the bookends of last season. I don't agree that he's a low upside player, I think he has plenty of upside long term, and I'm not sure how many players are as valuable right now in that WR25-50 zone, especially if you're only willing to part with a pick that busts 75% of the time for him. You're basically betting that he has a substantially less than 50% chance of turning in a single top 24 season the rest of his career with that valuation. I'd take that bet EVERY time w/o a second thought.

Just going over the guys with an ADP in that 26-50 zone here's what I come up with:

Would take over Lockett: Doctson, Tate, J. Brown (if healthy), E. Decker and D. Jack (if making a run at a title)

Similar valuation: Ty Williams, Cam Meredith, Snead (situation), K. White

That's it. So I've got basically about 3 guys I'd take for dynasty purposes over him, 2 if I have legit chance at win now title run, and another 4 or 5 guys I view as relatively similar in valuation and that's about it. What makes me more interested in Lockett than these guys is that he's cheaper than Doctson, and Tate, and to me less risky than Ty, Cam and White, and has more upside than Snead, long term.

[CharlieKelly]

People overvalued him as a 1st round pick a year ago. There is no way he is worth that. Middle 2nd as a low upside player. His value is in return yardage leagues. Far too many better options out there.

This makes no sense to me. He was incredibly efficient as a rookie. There's a reason his stock blew through the roof, and Harmon is only part of it, guys like Kelley, and guys at rotoviz and beyond were touting him before the Harmon followers hyped his price up to borderline absurd levels by the end of the summer. The only concerns I have with him in terms of upside reside with the competition for targets, and the seeming interest in running the ball more (but that's a F.O. issue-they seem to think running the ball more will keep Wilson healthier, I'd suggest not spending the league least, by a substantial margin, on the OL is good strategy to actually promote Wilson's health) and his health. He got dinged up at the bookends of last season. I don't agree that he's a low upside player, I think he has plenty of upside long term, and I'm not sure how many players are as valuable right now in that WR25-50 zone, especially if you're only willing to part with a pick that busts 75% of the time for him. You're basically betting that he has a substantially less than 50% chance of turning in a single top 24 season the rest of his career with that valuation. I'd take that bet EVERY time w/o a second thought.

Just going over the guys with an ADP in that 26-50 zone here's what I come up with:

Would take over Lockett: Doctson, Tate, J. Brown (if healthy), E. Decker and D. Jack (if making a run at a title)

Similar valuation: Ty Williams, Cam Meredith, Snead (situation), K. White

That's it. So I've got basically about 3 guys I'd take for dynasty purposes over him, 2 if I have legit chance at win now title run, and another 4 or 5 guys I view as relatively similar in valuation and that's about it. What makes me more interested in Lockett than these guys is that he's cheaper than Doctson, and Tate, and to me less risky than Ty, Cam and White, and has more upside than Snead, long term.

It's just people overvaluing rookie picks as usual. Let someone else take Paul Perkins or Mike Mitchell in the 2nd. I'll take Lockett every day.

[skip]

It's just people overvaluing rookie picks as usual.

Or it's people recognizing the upside/ceiling of a player.

The really long post in here that highlighted all of the efficiency numbers that makes for a nice write up but is a big red flag for me. I'm not sure about anyone else, but stats are only ever a part of the story. Much like people the love Keenan Allen, where is the skill set argument? Completely absent. Instead we see a long argument pointing out why statistically a guy like Lockett should be absolutely amazing.

So the next discussion moves to all of the outside factors as to why production dropped considerably the next year. Excuses about injuries, QB play, RB play, offensive line, etc. The entire thing reads very much like all of the support for Moncrief. So then the simple question... Why do all of these outside factors impact ONE player and not all of them? If the offense was that bad, then why did Baldwin have career high numbers in receptions and yardage? Unless you want to fall back to ONLY injury being a reason then the argument fails.

[CK_]

I wouldn't go over 1.07 for Lockett but this is a return yardage league that gives pretty decent points for return yardage. I love Lockett but wouldn't be willing to spend higher than a earlier second in a regular PPR league. Only reason why I would be willing to give up a 1.07 in return yardage is because he was averaging around 25 p/gm in return yardage when healthy which is lovely.

[CharlieKelly]

Or it's people recognizing the upside/ceiling of a player.

The really long post in here that highlighted all of the efficiency numbers that makes for a nice write up but is a big red flag for me. I'm not sure about anyone else, but stats are only ever a part of the story. Much like people the love Keenan Allen, where is the skill set argument? Completely absent. Instead we see a long argument pointing out why statistically a guy like Lockett should be absolutely amazing.

So the next discussion moves to all of the outside factors as to why production dropped considerably the next year. Excuses about injuries, QB play, RB play, offensive line, etc. The entire thing reads very much like all of the support for Moncrief. So then the simple question... Why do all of these outside factors impact ONE player and not all of them? If the offense was that bad, then why did Baldwin have career high numbers in receptions and yardage? Unless you want to fall back to ONLY injury being a reason then the argument fails.

You should really proofread your own arguments before posting them

[skip]

Or it's people recognizing the upside/ceiling of a player.

The really long post in here that highlighted all of the efficiency numbers that makes for a nice write up but is a big red flag for me. I'm not sure about anyone else, but stats are only ever a part of the story. Much like people the love Keenan Allen, where is the skill set argument? Completely absent. Instead we see a long argument pointing out why statistically a guy like Lockett should be absolutely amazing.

So the next discussion moves to all of the outside factors as to why production dropped considerably the next year. Excuses about injuries, QB play, RB play, offensive line, etc. The entire thing reads very much like all of the support for Moncrief. So then the simple question... Why do all of these outside factors impact ONE player and not all of them? If the offense was that bad, then why did Baldwin have career high numbers in receptions and yardage? Unless you want to fall back to ONLY injury being a reason then the argument fails.

You should really proofread your own arguments before posting them

I'm not sure what the problem is...stats still matter they are just not 100% of the story. Read thru all of the excuses why Lockett didn't produce and explain to me why those factors impacted only his production and not that of Baldwin.

[stoneghost28]

It's just people overvaluing rookie picks as usual.

Or it's people recognizing the upside/ceiling of a player.

The really long post in here that highlighted all of the efficiency numbers that makes for a nice write up but is a big red flag for me. I'm not sure about anyone else, but stats are only ever a part of the story. Much like people the love Keenan Allen, where is the skill set argument? Completely absent. Instead we see a long argument pointing out why statistically a guy like Lockett should be absolutely amazing.

So the next discussion moves to all of the outside factors as to why production dropped considerably the next year. Excuses about injuries, QB play, RB play, offensive line, etc. The entire thing reads very much like all of the support for Moncrief. So then the simple question... Why do all of these outside factors impact ONE player and not all of them? If the offense was that bad, then why did Baldwin have career high numbers in receptions and yardage? Unless you want to fall back to ONLY injury being a reason then the argument fails.

It's funny, this kind of reinforcing why we completely disagree. I also am a big Keenan Allen fan. Been following him ever since he switched off of Alabama and went to my Alma Mater instead to play with his brother. Was considered easily the top WR in the class going into his final season at Cal, then had a debilitating injury in November that took way longer than normal to heal up from and he wasn't able to perform at the combine or pro day effectively, recorded a god awful 40, and plunged from a top 10-15 pick in the summer of '12, to a third rounder in the spring of '13. Absolute steal for the Chargers. The one indictment on Allen I agree w/is the injury prone argument. While there may or may not be statistical validity to the general idea of injury-prone-ness, Allen has missed part, half or all of every single season he's played in since 2012. He hasn't had a single clean season. '13 and '14 were close, 4 total missed games in two years, but then in '15 and '16 he lost 3/4's of the next 32 games. So everybody should be a bit leery of buying high on a prospect with such a checkered injury history, especially considering how eventually these types of injuries can rob a player of their ability to play, period. Allen's closing in on the area where you can start to see that possibility, not there yet, but getting too close for comfort. He's got everything you could possibly want in a receiver, ALL of the skills, save for being a top end burner, and his speed is perfectly adequate regardless. His timed speeds at the combine and pro day were not accurate because he was still recovering from injury. If you don't like his injury red flags, I get that, if you think he lacks necessary skills, I have zero idea what you're talking about. He's a prototype WR who can do everything except for a reasonable impression of John Ross.

I even like Moncrief too, though I think with no major discount in place, I won't be buying. I think philosophically we just look at this quite differently.

As for Lockett, blew up at the combine, hugely efficient as a rookie, when healthy down the stretch in December you started to see his #'s pop up again, 20 targets in his 3 december full games catching 16, an impressive catch rate for 234 yards and a TD, caught 2 of 3 early before going down on Christmas Eve as well. Had that weird 0 for 6 performance after thanksgiving in the 14-5 loss to Tampa, not sure what happened there, but I like what I saw after that. Can be used in a manifold of ways. I don't really understand the skill argument. This guy can be used in a gazillion different roles, and is productive in all of them. Not sure what the problem is with him other than the awful OL, and the fact that you've got Graham, Baldwin, Prosise and Richardson also wanting a piece of the pie which will hurt. Don't think he has the capacity as it's built now to reach WR1 status, think that's a huge reach, but think he can definitely be a mid to low end WR2 when healthy, and that's a highly valuable commodity.

As for injury, I think Baldwin had clearly become Wilson's security blanket in the offense the past three years and he was the only consistently healthy WR on the roster. Other than Baldwin, who did Wilson have game in and game out ready to go? Prosise and Rawls both were sidelined at different points with injury issues, Richardson has nearly lost his career to injuries, Kearse fell out of favor entirely, Graham's injury was so bad many felt he was never coming back and he kind of tip toed into relevance by week 3 when he broke out. Wilson's one reliable target has been Baldwin. Going back to '14 he's been the only player in the offense in there, week in, week out, that he could count on, and the #'s prove it. He's been one of the best buys in fantasy in that sense. Played 47 of 48 games, and Wilson's omnipresent security blanket. Why wouldn't he get all the action, especially considering he's been healthy while Graham, Willson, Lockett, Lynch, Rawls, Prosise, and Richardson haven't been?

[Goddard]

Skip, I agree with your take on Lockett, but don't lump Keenan in there with him.

[CharlieKelly]

You should really proofread your own arguments before posting them

I'm not sure what the problem is...stats still matter they are just not 100% of the story. Read thru all of the excuses why Lockett didn't produce and explain to me why those factors impacted only his production and not that of Baldwin.

Because Lockett and Baldwin are completely different types of players who play different roles in their respective offenses? There is quite a big difference between excuses and examining their situations in context.

Marqise Lee managed a more efficient season than ARob last year, would you say that the regression of Bortles and the other reasons behind ARob's lack of production are just "excuses" or should we examine the bigger picture?

Lockett spent the majority of the season injured and/or playing on an offense that had personnel which played better to Baldwin's strengths than Lockett's. That's not an excuse. That's context.

[Steelersfan]

Late 1st, early 2nd.