Blockbuster Gurley Trade

[stoneghost28]

12 Team PPR, 1 QB, I gave:
Todd Gurley, Breshad Periman, '17 1.12, '17 2.2 and two late '17 and '18 4ths

I Got:
Tyrell Williams, '17 1.8, 2 2018 1sts (I currently project the picks to be 1.1, and 1.4) and Jags Defense

On this team I owned the 1.1-1.4, 1.6, 1.12, 2.1, and 2.2 before the trade. and my roster's core included:
QB: Dalton/Garoppolo
RB: Gurley, Prosise
WR: Allen, Watkins, John Brown, Martavis Bryant, Hogan, M. Lee, DGB
TE: Eifert

A bit of a risky trade, but owning the 1.1, 1.2, and 1.6 allowed me to target RB's, and reduce my exposure to Gurley (I have him in 3 other leagues, and view his situation as ghastly until 2018 or 2019), and the '18 picks belong to rosters I project will stink this season quite badly and my '18 picks before the trade were limited to a 1st, and two 3rds. That first belonged to a playoff team this year, but a team I think has a bottom third roster. Last year I made trades with teams based on my strength projections and got lucky landing the 1.2, and 1.3 as a result. Not sure I'll be that lucky again, but now having 3 2018 firsts, I think I have a good chance at landing at least one, and possibly 2 or even three top 5-7 picks in that draft.

What do you guys think?

I plan on going Cook, Davis, Williams, Fournette, Mixon/McCaffrey at 1.6, and either TE at 1.8, best available player, or a trade out. Of course all subject to change based on landing spots and what happens the next 3+ months.

[thomasscheeks]

Idk I don't like it, you should have been able to get more for Gurley. If the picks end up early and you land some studs, of course you come out ok. But I wouldn't have taken that risk.

[crip7300]

The way I view it

Williams & 1.8 = Perriman & 1.12
Gurley > 2 2018 1st
Other parts of the trade are just fluff

So I think you might have taken a slight hit value wise but I also can't blame anyone for wanting to get out early on Gurley for 2 1sts. If he has another bad year, you will be hard pressed to get 2 1sts for him. Personally I'm still a believer. I think he can be an elite RB in the league for years to come but it can be a risk to hang on to him. That Rams offense was historically bad last year.

I personally would not take a TE at 1.8, you already have Eifert and rookie TE always seem to take 2 or 3 years before they are even remotely productive. Take BPA. If you really want another TE take them at the 2.2.

Good Luck and have fun drafting with all those picks.

[stoneghost28]

At this stage I just view Gurley as a liability going forward, I love his talent, but with the Rams lacking anything in terms of OL, WR's, and QB of note, having no 1st rounder, and the FA crop being pretty weak, I have a hard time seeing things improve much for him in the short term. I have him on several teams, so you know I love his talent, but his situation is so so so bad, I just had felt I had to do something about it, especially knowing I have the picks to draft 3 of the top 4 RB's in this class (owning 1.1-1.4, and 1.6), and I also have Prosise to go with them.

I understand your take, I didn't get much of anything in proven talent, just speculative across the board, so that's an indictment if you prefer to eschew risk, or simply don't value the picks as much.

For me though, I feel having Tyrell allows me to completely solidify my WR corps (now its Allen/Watkins/Tyrell/John Brown/M. Bryant/M. Lee/Hogan, plus I can get Davis and Williams this year), and having Fournette, Cook, Prosise and somebody should bandage over the loss of Gurley.

I really like the idea of having 3 2018 1sts considering the quality in that draft as well and if I'm right in my projections, there is a good chance I'll have two top 5 picks, and probably a pick between 5-7.

But yeah, definitely a role of the dice, and it carries risk, especially if the rams lock up some OL help in FA to patch over issues there, and sign a decent WR as well. Maybe Gurley surprises. Color me skeptical though. I think they have too many needs, and nowhere near enough assets to acquire them, heck Britt and Quick are FA's as well. It's just a dumpster fire there. But then again i could be totally wrong in my team evaluations (I have the 1.4 pick from a team I projected to finish in 4th-6th place this past year).

[stoneghost28]

The way I view it

Williams & 1.8 = Perriman & 1.12
Gurley > 2 2018 1st
Other parts of the trade are just fluff

So I think you might have taken a slight hit value wise but I also can't blame anyone for wanting to get out early on Gurley for 2 1sts. If he has another bad year, you will be hard pressed to get 2 1sts for him. Personally I'm still a believer. I think he can be an elite RB in the league for years to come but it can be a risk to hang on to him. That Rams offense was historically bad last year.

I personally would not take a TE at 1.8, you already have Eifert and rookie TE always seem to take 2 or 3 years before they are even remotely productive. Take BPA. If you really want another TE take them at the 2.2.

Good Luck and have fun drafting with all those picks.

That's my plan in terms of 1.8. I can move down, take best available, or trade out for more '18 assets. I still own the 2.1 and 2.11 after 1.8 both of which could be used on whichever TE's are available at that point too (or trading down).

Definitely like the flexibility it gives me.

I am starting to sour slightly on Perriman, and view Williams production as a potential sign of things to come, so I have Williams and 1.8 as definitely > compared to Perriman, and 1.12, but if you don't see it that way, it being equal would make plenty of sense.

One of the firsts belongs to a team lacking any WR1's or high end WR2's, and which has RB2's but no 1's. I rate his roster basically 9th best. The other pick belongs to a team that has Julio Jones, and Gurley, but other than that not much at WR, or RB (if you count Lacy or Hill, maybe you rate it better than me), and nothing special at QB or TE either. In the former case the owner doesn't pick until 2.3, and in the latter case the owner has the 1.5 and 1.12, both owners have a couple of 2nds to work with.

For me, unless they hit home runs in the draft, it's hard to see either making playoff runs.

Definitely risky though and I own that.

[auggiedoggies]

12 Team PPR, 1 QB, I gave:
Todd Gurley, Breshad Periman, '17 1.12, '17 2.2 and two late '17 and '18 4ths

I Got:
Tyrell Williams, '17 1.8, 2 2018 1sts (I currently project the picks to be 1.1, and 1.4) and Jags Defense

Interesting....it's always dangerous to project picks out a year IMO, you never know what can happen...here's how I view it


Gurley = 2 18 1sts (If both end up early, you win. If both end up mid to late, I don't think you win)

Perriman = Tyrell (I would prefer Perriman though. I think Tyrell is going to take a big hit when Keenan comes back. Perriman should at least get the chance to see a lot of targets in Baltimore)

1.12, 2.2 > 1.8 (With the depth of this class, I'd rather have 12+14 instead of 8)

4ths and the D are a toss up.


Overall, I don't think it was a bad deal, but I would probably prefer to receive the Gurley side.

[Cowboysfan33]

I think you did fine. Maybe on the surface, you might have lost a little value, but with you already having so much exposure to Gurley in other leagues, the Rams putrid offense, etc., I think you come out alright and if you hit on those picks, you will probably win that trade. Admittedly, I'm pretty low on Gurley's situation though, maybe the new coaching staff can turn things around but I think it will be awhile before that happens.

[Ryantacular]

You shouldnt have had to add perriman or the 1.12.

Might have been close to even without you adding those pieces.

[The.Big.Spank]

Because you have the 1.1 and 1.2 this year the trade works for you. I like Perriman a lot better than Williams. I think he is the best buy low candidate for WR right now. He caught about 60-70% of his targets last year and averaged 15 ypc. He has first round skill set and showed his ability to high point and make tough catches last year. Smith is gone, Wallace is old and very average.

You traded a really good candidate to become a WR2 this year with WR1 ceiling capabilities. That is the part of the deal I dont like for you.

[Jason3123]

Selling Gurley and not getting an elite asset back is a loss in my opinion. Unless one of those ends up SaQuon Barkley. Getting 2 random firsts and an undrafted free agent WR is a loss in my opinion. Not sure how you can be so confident those picks are 1.1 and 1.4 considering the insane variance of the NFL from year to year, but if you're that confident then it'll probably work out. Still sold too low on Gurley and should've waited until he rebounds, which he will.

[Favrezilla]

Selling Gurley and not getting an elite asset back is a loss in my opinion.

me too, the only blockbuster here is that Gurley was traded...

this trade may be a huge win for you in 2019/2020, but for now you traded a dollar for nickels and dimes -- im not a fan.

[Dookmarriot]

I think you're fine with the picks you have coming up, but I still think you gave up a bit too much in return, especially since you have 2 years of risk on those 2018 picks.

[oogieboogie]

It appears to be a very even trade, but I don't think thats very good for you.

Todd Gurley is a likely candidate to bounce back in a huge way and probably have real sustainable success. I just think he's a true blue chipper, last year was a down year but I don't think it is the norm.

I would have held Gurley or traded him for another blue chipper (Cooper, Watkins, etc.)