Update on Keenan Allen & Tyrell Williams

[pun]

Hey all. New to the website so apologies if I got something wrong here and this should be in a different forum.

Anyway, I am wondering how people see these two now that tyrell has proven he can be a viable receiver. And wondering if people are trying to buy low on keenan right or not so much. Do people still see him in the WR10-15 range he was valued in before the season?

In my opinion, the chargers are wedded to keenan due to the contract they gave him, but I don't think he's signficantly better than tyrell. As long as they're both healthy and on the team, I think neither will see enough volume to put up the numbers they've put up the past few years.

Additionally, I'm even lower on keenan right now than I was at the beginning of the year because of the injuries. I just have a really difficult time seeing his body hold up for a long, productive career after so many lower body injuries within a short period of time. On the other hand he is under that contract though so the chargers might be determined to have him as a centerpiece of the offense moreso than tyrell.

Wondering what the public opinion on these two is though as I've seen almost nobody talking about keenan's long term prospects now that tyrell is in the picture.

thanks

[lionsfan313]

As an owner of both in one of my leagues I'm really hoping they are both viable options next year. We all know that Rivers likes to sling it around and they essentially play different roles on the team. I see Keenan going back to his possession/slot receiving role where he'll be peppered with targets and I see Williams evolving into that vertical threat on the outside who hooks up for those 40+ yd bombs on a somewhat consistent basis. A better version of Malcom Floyd, who at times was a viable fantasy player. I definitely think we'll see a drop off in Tyrell's production next season but not a huge drop. I think he'll be a less consistent fantasy contributor but could bust off some big fantasy games. I can honestly see Rivers throwing it enough to feed them both. I think the one hurt the most from Keenan's return would be Inman.

[LibertyCountyBrawler]

I'm actually gonna look to offload Keenan Allen after the IR designation is removed from him. I know there are some guys in my league that are hyped about him. Though if healthy I do think he can be a top 15 WR and would look really nice along side Julio Jones and Alshon Jeffery....

I don't think there will be a big enough drop off in volume to be concerned. I think the real concern is for Gordon owners when it comes to the Chargers situation.

[skip]

As the resident Keenan "hater" I would much rather have Tyrell at his price. He is going to catch plenty of passes, have a better ypr, and score as many or more TDs at a fraction of the cost. Keenan is a good WR who had an ideal situation last season. Don't expect that to happen again.

[dblj1199]

If you know nothing of college history, and pedigree and base if solely on NFL production then Tyrell has shown this year to be right there. If Allen can stay healthy next year, and that's a big if, then too me he is the wr1 in SD. Tyrell will still produce but I don't see him getting 12 targets a game. Tyrell biggest bonus is his size making him a better red zone target which can even things out. With Rivers and a heavy passing offense I think both have value but Tyrell will come cheaper.

[Jfever]

based off of cost vs production, I'd lean toward Tyrell. If both are healthy, and I have a game/ matchup/ championship on the line, I'm siding with K.Allen all day.

I've been high on him for quite some time / all the way back to his NCAA days. A few of his injuries have been quite fluky. Which stinks. In ppr leagues, when healthy, He is easily a wr1 for me. I don't have that same confidence in T.Williams.

[skip]

Tyrell will still produce but I don't see him getting 12 targets a game.

He only has 89 targets in 12 games (approx 7.5 per game) so I don't either - but he doesn't need to. Of note, when Keenan got hurt last season he had exactly 89 targets. With those identical number of targets, Tyrell has more yards and more TDs (fewer receptions).

I am not going to try to make the argument that Tyrell is the #1 on that team. I think he is fully capable of the role but I don't expect it. But if I am looking at Tyrell vs. most of the other #2s in the league, I will gladly take him ahead of most of them. I'd value him minimally as high as a Diggs or Moncrief.

[Ryantacular]

I think Allen is the better talent, but I would rather by Tyrell, because of cost. I'm not chasing either though personally. I would rather watch.

[Jfever]

Skip, you at this point in time value T.Williams at the same level as Diggs? You may be a tad higher on him than me. Maybe I'm missing something. I do not have him (Williams) that high. I would not trade Diggs or Moncrief straight up for T.Williams. I also don't value him (in dynasty) as high as some other #2's in the league because I don't think his volume stays where it is, and I think his production likely shows that with a healthy K.Allen, subtle improvement to line and running game, and steps forward for H.Hunter. But, I'm just guessing here, I admit. Just no way I'm jumping on board with T.Williams and valuing him that high that quick. I'll let others take that risk and potentially reap that reward.

As far as what different Wr do with same number of targets, (when you compared K.Allen on 89 targets vs T.Williams and his 89 targets), sure, its something you can compare cuz they are from the same team with the same qb, but, when you look at the result you have to understand that you aren't really comparing apples to apples so to speak. The team is different, the situations are different, they don't run the same routes, aren't asked to do the same thing, have different strengths and weaknesses within their games, etc. So the precise # of yds Williams has with the 89 targets doesn't "prove" anything in regard to the type of or value of player he is in Dynasty vs K.Allen. Not at all.

Again, for cost vs reward, I'd still buy T.Williams, but, like I said, if the game is on the line and I have a choice, between a healthy K.Allen and a healthy T.Williams - this is not a difficult decision to make.

[skip]

Skip, you at this point in time value T.Williams at the same level as Diggs? You may be a tad higher on him than me. Maybe I'm missing something. I do not have him (Williams) that high. I would not trade Diggs or Moncrief straight up for T.Williams. I also don't value him (in dynasty) as high as some other #2's in the league because I don't think his volume stays where it is, and I think his production likely shows that with a healthy K.Allen, subtle improvement to line and running game, and steps forward for H.Hunter. But, I'm just guessing here, I admit. Just no way I'm jumping on board with T.Williams and valuing him that high that quick. I'll let others take that risk and potentially reap that reward.

Well, let me address a couple of things. Will his production change with the return of Keenan? Possible. But this is the argument I used the entire off season to the deaf ears of people here who seemed to think that Keenan could produce to the same level as he did last year... I would argue there is a far better chance of Tyrell maintaining his target volume than Keenan coming close to his. 7-8 targets a game is a reasonable expectation from a quality #2.

In my own rankings, he is definitively ahead of both Diggs and Moncrief. When I watch Tyrell play, I see a lot of comparisons to the way Mike Evans plays and I like his style of game more than Keenan.

[Ryantacular]

Skip, you at this point in time value T.Williams at the same level as Diggs? You may be a tad higher on him than me. Maybe I'm missing something. I do not have him (Williams) that high. I would not trade Diggs or Moncrief straight up for T.Williams. I also don't value him (in dynasty) as high as some other #2's in the league because I don't think his volume stays where it is, and I think his production likely shows that with a healthy K.Allen, subtle improvement to line and running game, and steps forward for H.Hunter. But, I'm just guessing here, I admit. Just no way I'm jumping on board with T.Williams and valuing him that high that quick. I'll let others take that risk and potentially reap that reward.

Well, let me address a couple of things. Will his production change with the return of Keenan? Possible. But this is the argument I used the entire off season to the deaf ears of people here who seemed to think that Keenan could produce to the same level as he did last year... I would argue there is a far better chance of Tyrell maintaining his target volume than Keenan coming close to his. 7-8 targets a game is a reasonable expectation from a quality #2.

In my own rankings, he is definitively ahead of both Diggs and Moncrief. When I watch Tyrell play, I see a lot of comparisons to the way Mike Evans plays and I like his style of game more than Keenan.

he passes the eyeball test nicely, thats a fact. I hope nobody here denies that at least

[pun]

When I watch Tyrell play, I see a lot of comparisons to the way Mike Evans plays and I like his style of game more than Keenan.

I agree 100%, such a great comparison.

I like Keenan a lot too. I think they could both flourish as #1s. It's kind of a shame that they could both dampen each other's value.

[hoos89]

Tyrell will still produce but I don't see him getting 12 targets a game.

He only has 89 targets in 12 games (approx 7.5 per game) so I don't either - but he doesn't need to. Of note, when Keenan got hurt last season he had exactly 89 targets. With those identical number of targets, Tyrell has more yards and more TDs (fewer receptions).

I am not going to try to make the argument that Tyrell is the #1 on that team. I think he is fully capable of the role but I don't expect it. But if I am looking at Tyrell vs. most of the other #2s in the league, I will gladly take him ahead of most of them. I'd value him minimally as high as a Diggs or Moncrief.

It also took Tyrell 4 more games to get there. The value of Keenan is that he's a reliable volume receiver, so it's kind of silly to compare their numbers given equal targets. It took Tyrell 50% more games to reach that number for a reason.

[skip]

It also took Tyrell 4 more games to get there. The value of Keenan is that he's a reliable volume receiver, so it's kind of silly to compare their numbers given equal targets. It took Tyrell 50% more games to reach that number for a reason.

I think you missed the point a bit. I was not suggesting that Tyrell is going to have the same number of targets. It was just an observation that given the same number of targets, Tyrell had produced better numbers. But given the choice between which is more likely... Tyrell averaging the same number of targets a year from now that is he in 2016 vs. Keenan averaging the same number of targets he had in 2015, I am taking Tyrell every time.

[flyersfan1981]

It also took Tyrell 4 more games to get there. The value of Keenan is that he's a reliable volume receiver, so it's kind of silly to compare their numbers given equal targets. It took Tyrell 50% more games to reach that number for a reason.

I think you missed the point a bit. I was not suggesting that Tyrell is going to have the same number of targets. It was just an observation that given the same number of targets, Tyrell had produced better numbers. But given the choice between which is more likely... Tyrell averaging the same number of targets a year from now that is he in 2016 vs. Keenan averaging the same number of targets he had in 2015, I am taking Tyrell every time.

Skip...I respect you a lot as one of the best forum posters...but I literally just can't wait to read how you rip Keenan anytime I see a Keenan thread pop up...it makes me laugh.

Your main argument against him (correct me if I am wrong or misremembering) was that his volume for 2016 wouldn't be sustainable from his 2015 pace. I pointed out that it wouldn't have to be for him to be a WR1 because he catches almost everything. But, he had 7 targets in the first half of Week 1 so it is very reasonable to conservatively peg him for 9 targets/game. Putting him at 144 targets, so let's call it 140, which puts him at about 98 catches (70% catch rate which is fair considering for 2015-16 he is at a 76% rate). Given the improved weapons and a more open field an 11.5 YPC avg seems fair also. Gives him a base of 98/1127/8 or 258 PPR pts. That would have him right around WR10-12 this year, with room to move up a few spots with minor improvements.

To the OP..."so many lower body injuries within a short period of time."

Uhhh...what? Maybe I am missing something (I admit I have overlooked or forgotten things in the past), but his most previous lower body injury goes back to college. And that was a PCL sprain, not a tear.

I don't want to rely on Keenan as my WR1 on a contending squad, but find me a better WR2 as his floor is so high, which is what you want.