Update on Keenan Allen & Tyrell Williams

[skip]

Skip...I respect you a lot as one of the best forum posters...but I literally just can't wait to read how you rip Keenan anytime I see a Keenan thread pop up...it makes me laugh.

Admittedly I've probably taken my disdain for him a bit "over the top" at this point but I just don't like his game at all. For a player of his size, I want to see someone who aggressively goes after the football, makes big plays, is an end zone threat, etc. What I see is someone who plays more like a 5'10"-5'11" possession WR. His target volume took a massive spike in 2015 and yes my primary argument has been that it is an unsustainable pace. Even your projection ( 9 per game ) puts him in the 140-150 range. In each of the last 2 years there have only been a dozen WRs to have reached this number - will Keenan be one of those WRs in the future? Over this past off season I discussed at length why I believed that there was this massive spike and why I expected it to drop back down. Maybe he catches 70% of his targets, maybe not. He did in 2013* and 2015 but not in 2014 (63%). I believe his 2015 may turn out to be the anomaly of his career and his peak. And maybe I'm wrong.

The thing about this game is that no one is ever 100% correct. We all have players we like who fail and players we don't who succeed. I don't think there is anything wrong with having big misses. I need to believe in my own views of talent first (as we all should) and then couple in the views from the community. Most of the time they mesh but sometimes they don't.

I'll try to tone down my "anti-Keenan" posts over the next year just for you.

[flyersfan1981]

Skip...I respect you a lot as one of the best forum posters...but I literally just can't wait to read how you rip Keenan anytime I see a Keenan thread pop up...it makes me laugh.

Admittedly I've probably taken my disdain for him a bit "over the top" at this point but I just don't like his game at all. For a player of his size, I want to see someone who aggressively goes after the football, makes big plays, is an end zone threat, etc. What I see is someone who plays more like a 5'10"-5'11" possession WR. His target volume took a massive spike in 2015 and yes my primary argument has been that it is an unsustainable pace. Even your projection ( 9 per game ) puts him in the 140-150 range. In each of the last 2 years there have only been a dozen WRs to have reached this number - will Keenan be one of those WRs in the future? Over this past off season I discussed at length why I believed that there was this massive spike and why I expected it to drop back down. Maybe he catches 70% of his targets, maybe not. He did in 2013* and 2015 but not in 2014 (63%). I believe his 2015 may turn out to be the anomaly of his career and his peak. And maybe I'm wrong.

The thing about this game is that no one is ever 100% correct. We all have players we like who fail and players we don't who succeed. I don't think there is anything wrong with having big misses. I need to believe in my own views of talent first (as we all should) and then couple in the views from the community. Most of the time they mesh but sometimes they don't.

I'll try to tone down my "anti-Keenan" posts over the next year just for you.

Don't! I love it...just gonna be sweeter when he proves you wrong...haha!

[Draft Master]

This is like comparing a LAMBO with a Rice burner or a Japanese race car, no doubt best bang for the bucks sides with Tyrell, but its really comparing 2 different type of thingsl, KA hands down WR1 without his messy injury history the past 2 years, Tyrell have all the opportunity NOW and if you still need to ask if he can ever be that guy, I think the answer is NO.

[pun]

To the OP..."so many lower body injuries within a short period of time."

Uhhh...what? Maybe I am missing something (I admit I have overlooked or forgotten things in the past), but his most previous lower body injury goes back to college. And that was a PCL sprain, not a tear.

he's been so banged up over the years. hip, groin, multiple ankle injuries, multiple knee injuries (i thought the pcl was a tear, wasn't it?). shoulder injury too at one point, plus the collarbone. maybe i misworded that by saying "within a short period of time," I just meant to say that it's hard for me to not see him as pretty injury prone at this point and factor that into his value. and don't get me wrong, I really like keenan, i had him at the beginning of the year in over half my leagues, but it's kinda difficult for me to see him as a guy who's body will allow him to play at a high level into his 30s like most high end WRs

[flyersfan1981]

To the OP..."so many lower body injuries within a short period of time."

Uhhh...what? Maybe I am missing something (I admit I have overlooked or forgotten things in the past), but his most previous lower body injury goes back to college. And that was a PCL sprain, not a tear.

he's been so banged up over the years. hip, groin, multiple ankle injuries, multiple knee injuries (i thought the pcl was a tear, wasn't it?). shoulder injury too at one point, plus the collarbone. maybe i misworded that by saying "within a short period of time," I just meant to say that it's hard for me to not see him as pretty injury prone at this point and factor that into his value. and don't get me wrong, I really like keenan, i had him at the beginning of the year in over half my leagues, but it's kinda difficult for me to see him as a guy who's body will allow him to play at a high level into his 30s like most high end WRs

He basically has played (and played well) through any minor injuries. I don't recall him ever having ankle issues. I remember small groin/hip stuff, but he has never missed time from them.

He has had a broken collarbone (not an injury prone type injury), a kidney injury (about as fluke as they come), and a torn ACL as the only injuries to cause him to miss any time in the NFL (unless you want to include the college knee injury that kept him to limited snaps early his rookie year).

I worry a lot more about the recurring soft tissue injuries than some of the stuff on Keenan's injury history. That said, I totally understand being skittish about the cumulative effects. But he is still super young and in an explosive offense with a QB who loves him.

[hoos89]

It also took Tyrell 4 more games to get there. The value of Keenan is that he's a reliable volume receiver, so it's kind of silly to compare their numbers given equal targets. It took Tyrell 50% more games to reach that number for a reason.

I think you missed the point a bit. I was not suggesting that Tyrell is going to have the same number of targets. It was just an observation that given the same number of targets, Tyrell had produced better numbers. But given the choice between which is more likely... Tyrell averaging the same number of targets a year from now that is he in 2016 vs. Keenan averaging the same number of targets he had in 2015, I am taking Tyrell every time.

No, I understand your point, and my point is that's kind of sidestepping Keenan's key value: volume. Of course a high volume, low YPC guy is going to tend to look worse if you compare him on a per target basis.

[stoneghost28]

Had Allen on 3 teams, now down to two (traded him and Karlos Williams and a '17 3rd and 18 1st for Lev Bell, Derrick Henry and an '18 4th last July lower my shares in him due to the injury history). I managed to land Tyrell in 2 of my 8 leagues, and I ended up acquiring him as a last piece I demanded be included if I was going to give up a '17 2nd in a package deal back in September. I have tried to acquire him since but his price is simply cost prohibitive at this point, at least in one of the leagues, the guy countered my offer of 2nds in '17 and '18 by asking for a '17 1st that he'd traded away to me in the offseason. No dice, I had specifically targeted his '17 1st because I thought he had a bottom 3 roster (turned out bottom 2 roster). 1.2 for him was just far too much to ask.

I'm curious though, at this point in time what's a reasonable demand for Tyrell? Multiple high 2nd's? A mis '17 first, a random '18 1st? What do you think is reasonable in terms of picks?

[skip]

I'm curious though, at this point in time what's a reasonable demand for Tyrell? Multiple high 2nd's? A mis '17 first, a random '18 1st? What do you think is reasonable in terms of picks?

I would not move him without getting a mid 1st round pick in 2017 OR a 2018 1st+.

[Bo Jackson]

I picked up Keenan for 2 first, 2017 mid and 2018 hopefully late... Might be an over pay, might be an under. Really just wanted more depth for next year than 2 unproven rooks

[stoneghost28]

I picked up Keenan for 2 first, 2017 mid and 2018 hopefully late... Might be an over pay, might be an under. Really just wanted more depth for next year than 2 unproven rooks

Keenan's probably a better prospect than most, and probably all the WR's you'd likely get there, as a Keenan fan though, I've been divesting shares over the past six months. Too many damn injuries. I'm a Cal alum, and have been following him ever since he flipped schools from Alabama to Cal. Made the proverbial Chicken Salad at of Chicken ...emmm.... at QB at Cal for several years before an injury derailed his final season, combine and workouts. He is a stud, but at this point, he's missed a ton of time in 3 of his past five seasons. That's a brutal trend even if the injuries have been seemingly random, rather than of the Arian Foster variety.

Good Luck on the trade. I firmly believe in his talent, but I'm also concerned about his situation. Lots of weapons, bad injury history and Rivers age.

[Payton34]

Not to throw a wrench in2this discussion, but I think it is a somewhat likely scenario that Rivers gets shopped and moved this offseason. The Chargers are in full on upheaval mode, are probably relocating, etc... Not sure what to expect for next season from them...

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[skip]

Not to throw a wrench in2this discussion, but I think it is a somewhat likely scenario that Rivers gets shopped and moved this offseason. The Chargers are in full on upheaval mode, are probably relocating, etc... Not sure what to expect for next season from them...

This sounds highly speculative. Rivers just signed a new contract a little over a year ago at VERY affordable numbers (even with roster bonuses he will be averaging $15 million a year for the next 3 years). He would provide an element of stability to a team very much in need of it with the uncertain future location of the team.

[Payton34]

Not to throw a wrench in2this discussion, but I think it is a somewhat likely scenario that Rivers gets shopped and moved this offseason. The Chargers are in full on upheaval mode, are probably relocating, etc... Not sure what to expect for next season from them...

This sounds highly speculative. Rivers just signed a new contract a little over a year ago at VERY affordable numbers (even with roster bonuses he will be averaging $15 million a year for the next 3 years). He would provide an element of stability to a team very much in need of it with the uncertain future location of the team.

Yeah, I suppose it is. Heard a lot of discussion along those lines, but that may have just been fantasy folks making fantasy trades in their heads...

Never mind me...

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[onetwothree]

I have both. Got them pretty cheap.

Plan is to offer 1.01 around and see if I can get a top WR and make Keenan my WR2. Would feel more comfortable with that. As for Tyrell, I'm not opposed to keeping him since I think he'll be fine even with Keenan back. His targets might drop but his efficiency should increase without having to face the top CB. Think a much more rounded Malcolm Floyd. But will shop Tyrell with a later 1st (8th or 11th) and see if I can get someone on a down year like Alshon.

To summarize, like both. Just not love. Think they'll be fine but will have a wandering eye.