Nuk vs 1.01

[CharlieKelly]

My apologies, I thought I made it quite clear that I was only comparing each year's 1.01 to DH's season for that year, not their dynasty value moving forward? Even so, pretty much all of the players I mentioned currently have higher dyno values except Watkins and maybe Gurley, so I'm not sure what you're getting at?

You're a Nuk truther (read: homer), that's fine. It's not my job to convince you of his worth (or lack there of) moving forward. The OP asked a question and I answered it. You can and will do what you want, so do that.

Jah bless mon.

Why compare the 1.01's rookie seasons to Nuk if not to compare dynasty value? What's the point of trying to argue that point then?

I'm not sure why you bother calling someone a "truther". If making a valid argument based on relevant statistics as a rebuttal for a dumb, cherry picked, irrelevant argument, then sure, i'll be a "truther".

[Black Adam]

Hopkins is currently the 40th ranked WR in standard, and something like 33rd in PPR. -_-

OP, if you think his situation/inefficiency/Os' QB play/whatever will increase/improve, then by all means, take him.

If not, roll with the 1.01, take the consensus #1 or 2 and you'll probably enjoy similar if not greater fantasy production, at least in 2017.

[Payton34]

hold 1.1 in a league. i would take very little time to hit accept if i was offered nuk for it. in fact in that league i own 1.1 and another later 1st that will be like 1.10 (14 team league) and i wouldnt think twice to give both picks for nuk. the ppl saying 1.1 thats fine if its close and you would rather have fournette thats their prerogative if they wanna lose value. but the ppl saying 1.1 easily just amuse me greatly

And I'd gladly give you Nuk for that. Lose value? As I see it, the ones maintaining Nuk's value are folks who still, after 12 weeks, think that something is just going to click and Hopkins will become '15 Nuk again.

Do you recall the going rate for 1.1 last Summer? You don't think a Cook, Fournette or Williams drafted to a favorable situation will have value at least as great as Nuk?

Further more you don't believe that said pick can/will maintain that value?

I'm not here saying Hopkins is garbage. Just saying that 1.1 is going to be a player with equal talent to him at the given position, and yes, will likely hold value for more than a year.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

[Black Adam]

hold 1.1 in a league. i would take very little time to hit accept if i was offered nuk for it. in fact in that league i own 1.1 and another later 1st that will be like 1.10 (14 team league) and i wouldnt think twice to give both picks for nuk. the ppl saying 1.1 thats fine if its close and you would rather have fournette thats their prerogative if they wanna lose value. but the ppl saying 1.1 easily just amuse me greatly

And I'd gladly give you Nuk for that. Lose value? As I see it, the ones maintaining Nuk's value are folks who still, after 12 weeks, think that something is just going to click and Hopkins will become '15 Nuk again.

Do you recall the going rate for 1.1 last Summer? You don't think a Cook, Fournette or Williams drafted to a favorable situation will have value at least as great as Nuk?

Further more you don't believe that said pick can/will maintain that value?

I'm not here saying Hopkins is garbage. Just saying that 1.1 is going to be a player with equal talent to him at the given position, and yes, will likely hold value for more than a year.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

Completely agree, except that player taken 1.01 is probably a far greater athlete.

I know a lot of ppl forget (or ignore) that Hopkins has a below-average SPARQ score and was a Combine dud. Yes, we've seen what he can do at the NFL level, but his production was undoubtedly helped by the lack of receivers to compete for targets. All other factors being equal, I like to take the better athlete when it comes to long-term value.

[CharlieKelly]

There are some really, really dumb things being said about Nuk in this thread.

It's pretty incredible that people will argue that 2015 was a fluke because it was one season, but will then go on to argue that 2016 is what we should expect from Nuk from here on out even though it's...one season.

I get a strong feeling that those who would rather have 1.01 have never actually bothered watching a real football game and would rather base an argument solely on recency bias.

Seeing someone argue that 1.01 will be better because they will be "a far greater athlete than Nuk" might be one of the dumbest things i've ever read on this board.

[derekhiny]

There are some really, really dumb things being said about Nuk in this thread.

It's pretty incredible that people will argue that 2015 was a fluke because it was one season, but will then go on to argue that 2016 is what we should expect from Nuk from here on out even though it's...one season.

I get a strong feeling that those who would rather have 1.01 have never actually bothered watching a real football game and would rather base an argument solely on recency bias.

Seeing someone argue that 1.01 will be better because they will be "a far greater athlete than Nuk" might be one of the dumbest things i've ever read on this board.

As well as needing to forget about all the "sparq score" darlings who never amounted to jack bleep in the NFL. Being a good NFL player is about so much more than simple athleticism.

[BuckeyeNation]

There are some really, really dumb things being said about Nuk in this thread.

It's pretty incredible that people will argue that 2015 was a fluke because it was one season, but will then go on to argue that 2016 is what we should expect from Nuk from here on out even though it's...one season.

I get a strong feeling that those who would rather have 1.01 have never actually bothered watching a real football game and would rather base an argument solely on recency bias.

Seeing someone argue that 1.01 will be better because they will be "a far greater athlete than Nuk" might be one of the dumbest things i've ever read on this board.

Calling people out as dumb and questioning people's intelligence because they don't agree with you serves no purpose and there's really no need for it.

We're discussing a pure matter of opinion here. If you believe Hopkins is an elite WR who's down year is a fluke, and you have no worries about how his situation has changed, then there's no issue with it. It's your opinion and you're entitled to it. There's just no reason to belittle others for essentially making the same argument, only in reverse, believing that his big '15 campaign will go down as his outlier season.

Assigning value to a dynasty player isn't about the past, it's about projecting forward. Some project Hopkins to regain elite WR1 status next season, and some project him to be more of a WR2 going forward. There's nothing wrong with either stance, as we're all just trying to predict the future.

[RolandsTower]

1.1, and it's not close.

[CharlieKelly]

Calling people out as dumb and questioning people's intelligence because they don't agree with you serves no purpose and there's really no need for it.

We're discussing a pure matter of opinion here. If you believe Hopkins is an elite WR who's down year is a fluke, and you have no worries about how his situation has changed, then there's no issue with it. It's your opinion and you're entitled to it. There's just no reason to belittle others for essentially making the same argument, only in reverse, believing that his big '15 campaign will go down as his outlier season.

Assigning value to a dynasty player isn't about the past, it's about projecting forward. Some project Hopkins to regain elite WR1 status next season, and some project him to be more of a WR2 going forward. There's nothing wrong with either stance, as we're all just trying to predict the future.

I really don't mean to be a jerk about it, but it's difficult to find a better word for the basis of some of these arguing points. "Silly" maybe?

It's difficult to have a coherent argument about it when all I read are incoherent, incorrect statistics and silly, irrelevant points, like "1.01 will definitely be a much better than Nuk for sure because 1.01 will be a better athlete", while I back up my arguments with accurate statistics and relevant information.

If someone is going to argue that 1.01 is more valuable than Nuk because 1.01 is going to be a better athlete, i'm going to voice my opinion and call that dumb, because it's a reasonable response for a ridiculous statement. I really don't see why that's such a big issue.

[wildabeast49]

recently sold him straight up for Sammy in a .5

[Payton34]

Calling people out as dumb and questioning people's intelligence because they don't agree with you serves no purpose and there's really no need for it.

We're discussing a pure matter of opinion here. If you believe Hopkins is an elite WR who's down year is a fluke, and you have no worries about how his situation has changed, then there's no issue with it. It's your opinion and you're entitled to it. There's just no reason to belittle others for essentially making the same argument, only in reverse, believing that his big '15 campaign will go down as his outlier season.

Assigning value to a dynasty player isn't about the past, it's about projecting forward. Some project Hopkins to regain elite WR1 status next season, and some project him to be more of a WR2 going forward. There's nothing wrong with either stance, as we're all just trying to predict the future.

I really don't mean to be a jerk about it, but it's difficult to find a better word for the basis of some of these arguing points. "Silly" maybe?

It's difficult to have a coherent argument about it when all I read are incoherent, incorrect statistics and silly, irrelevant points, like "1.01 will definitely be a much better than Nuk for sure because 1.01 will be a better athlete", while I back up my arguments with accurate statistics and relevant information.

If someone is going to argue that 1.01 is more valuable than Nuk because 1.01 is going to be a better athlete, i'm going to voice my opinion and call that dumb, because it's a reasonable response for a ridiculous statement. I really don't see why that's such a big issue.

I don't think you're backing your argument with anything more "concrete" than anyone else. While I myself didn't say that the 1.1 would be a "better" athlete, I personsally did go so far as to say that we can assume the 1.1 will at least be on par talent-wise... Let us not pretend like Nuk has some unique skill-set here that cannot be eclipsed, lest we forget that he wasn't even the #1 WR on his own college team... Looking at statistics for Hopkins' three seasons, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle of this season and last which does NOT put him in the AJG, Julio, OBJ realm... THAT is the absurd argument IMO.

-You cite his 2014 season which he produced well with less targets, but let's remember that he effectively functioned as a #2 WR that season as it was Andre Johnson's swan song in Houston and was not the focus of the defense...

-In 2015 there was certainly inconsistency at the QB position, Nuk was the #1 WR and received about 1/3 of the total targets (about 12 per game)...

-In 2016 he's down to a little over 1/4 of his team's targets and is certainly suffering from some poor QB play.

The thing is that we can be fairly certain that things aren't going to get WAY better for Hopkins next season, as Osweiler will be back, etc... So we're going to bank on his UFA status and him going to a better situation the following year? Fine...

OR

We can draft a player that has outstanding talent and already WILL BE in a good situation.

Let's not pretend like all the question marks lie with the 1.1. If anything, the pick provides more flexibility than just sticking with Hopkins, and there is certainly no shortage of talent coming out in this year's class... This isn't a "Bird in the hand" situation here, as the point that someone was making earlier about the players selected at 1.1 (Which you belittled and ignored, though it was valid) that each consensus player selected with that pick over the last 5 years has produced AND maintained a high value. I think Watkins is a fantastic example because his value is STILL largely based on perceived talent, and yet people will still pay a premium for him... Gurley is another like that even though, like Nuk, he is struggling mightily this year...

So let us not pretend like the 1.1 won't hold a similar value to Hopkins over the next two or three seasons... And maybe some of us don't want to sit and wait another year for Hopkins to get his "Get out of jail free card" and hope that he goes to a better situation that suits him and it all works out for him... He's a talented WR, but he is not some rare freakish size/speed talent. This is the NFL and talented players are drafted into the league EVERY year. 2017 is slated to be above average in that respect from a skill player perspective...

We'll see... Would love to re-address this thread in June 2017 and maybe again this time next season. Definitely a polarizing topic.

[Johnny Canuck]

Ha! what a great thread and fun read (some great pissing contests in here). I think I got called out for not referencing Nuks 2014 season, so here's my thoughts on that.

I project nuks future outlook to be much like his 2014 season. I believe I stated that he's still a good WR and should be somewhere in the WR8-WR16 range. Well looking back, in 2014 Nuk was the WR14 in total pts, WR21 in targets, and WR18 in points per game.

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstat ... order=DESC

That's about what I see for him moving fwd based on all the previous arguments made here (market share, targets, internal competition, poor qb play). Don't take it personally and get venomous in an attempt to prove he should be a elite top 5 WR. He simply isn't, he's good but not elite, and his 2015 production was a huge outlier propped up by target volume.

In the past 25 years only 10 players have received more targets then him in a single season (re: Nuks 2015 target totals). That kind of volume just doesn't happen, it was a perfect storm. So don't hitch your wagon to 2015 because it likely won't happen again. Lucky for you Dhop owners that repeats of 2014 could, and prob will happen...eventually. Just be happy that you'll still likely have a great WR8-WR16 level guy.

Also, the entire "he could leave in FA" argument wouldn't be the hill I die on. Routinely offensive players that change teams in FA are often not the bill of goods that they are made out to be. It's usually almost always due to a ton of puff pieces that get everyone all riled up in the offseason when we are starved for football and anything will satisfy our hunger for the game. We think they'll be great, and that "this will be the year, now that they have an opportunity on team x" blah blah blah. Almost never pans out, although there's an exception to every rule so I guess I should say 3/4 never work out the way we anticipate them to. If you wanna believe Dhop will be the exception that's your prerogative, I'd rather play the odds myself on that one.

I personally don't wanna just sit and wait for Dhop to get in a better situation so I'd make that trade. That said, because it's quite obvious that the dynasty community still is clinging to that 2015 season, I'd ask for the 1.01++.

Even if you don't think that the 1.01 will be a better player then Dhop (I personally think they will but that doesn't matter for this argument), the 1.01 will be "worth" quite a bit more than Dhop when the draft rolls around and everyone gets infected with rookie fever.

So I say make the trade, get 1.01+, then trade the 1.01 at draft time if you don't want it for a kings ransom. I would estimate that with your tidy return on investment you could prob get Nuk back for less than you originally paid, and gain some dynasty assets for free essentially. NTM trading is fun, basically the best part of dynasty. I mean, that's why we all prob started posting on these boards in the first place right.

I take it as a good sign that most think the ppl favoring the 1.01 side are off base. It means that there's still deals to be made and value to obtain. Lots of times in my leagues, ppl will scratch their heads at my trades and call me out, only to kick themselves a few months later for not seeing what "could" be. Do they all work out, no, but most of the time we regret the risks we didn't take. I'm sure we all have a few trades, we declined at one time and regret not making now.

Take a risk and make a trade. It's not like owning Dhop is fun or helping you win, at least this way your offseason will be a blast

If you don't wanna take my word for it, here's another person that thinks the 1.01 will worth more than Nuk. Have a read.

http://rotoviz.com/2016/11/where-will-t ... vid=4lgrLV