Redraft Ideas

[hudini33]

My team in a PPR redraft league:

Rivers
D Freeman, Miller, Hyde, Coleman, Barber, Jones
Nuk, ARob, Hurns, Kupp, Amendola
Ertz, Kittle

I don't love my team, thinking about going after a better RB to pair with Freeman. I think I can trade Ertz for Melvin Gordon, but would that be a good move?

I appreciate any thoughts and comments about my squad

[moishetreats]

Gordon >>> Ertz

[hudini33]

Gordon >>> Ertz

It would have been a package of Ertz and Hyde for Gordon, but he turned it down.

[M-Dub]

You should be happy it got turned down. While MG might score more raw points than Ertz this year, the positional advantage you gain from having Ertz is far more significant on a week-to-week basis.

FWIW, I think your RBs will be fine. Miller isn’t sexy, but he should see plenty of volume this year while Foreman recovers from his injury. Barber is a great late-round selection who could be a league winner. I also expect Hyde to hold off Chubb for at least the first half of the year.

I think you should just stand pat for now and see how things develop. Either way, you should be able to get a much better return for Ertz.

[moishetreats]

I'm so confused... In what one-TE redraft league is Ertz worth more than Gordon??

[M-Dub]

I'm so confused... In what one-TE redraft league is Ertz worth more than Gordon??

Two words: positional advantage.

Last year, Melvin Gordon was the overall RB5 and averaged 18.006 PPG. The average PPG of the 12 highest scoring RBs was 17.76. So Gordon gave you an average weekly advantage of roughly .25 points.

Zach Ertz was the overall TE3 and averaged 14.457 PPG. The average PPG of the 12 highest scoring TEs was 11.299. So Ertz gave you an average weekly advantage of more than 3 points.

Here’s another interesting stat from last season: the gap in PPG between Ertz and Delanie Walker (the overall TE4 last year) was larger than the gap between any two consecutively ranked players at ANY position. So essentially, having one of Ertz, Gronk or Kelce last year gave you a better positional advantage than any other players in fantasy football (outside of the weeks where you played one of the other two, obviously).

Unless you play in a league that requires zero TEs and just lumps them in with WRs, or you just think that last year was an outlier season for Ertz (despite the fact that he’s gone for 70+/800+ the past three years), there’s really no reason to think Ertz isn’t worth more than Gordon, ADP be damned.

[moishetreats]

I'm so confused... In what one-TE redraft league is Ertz worth more than Gordon??

Two words: positional advantage.

Last year, Melvin Gordon was the overall RB5 and averaged 18.006 PPG. The average PPG of the 12 highest scoring RBs was 17.76. So Gordon gave you an average weekly advantage of roughly .25 points.

Zach Ertz was the overall TE3 and averaged 14.457 PPG. The average PPG of the 12 highest scoring TEs was 11.299. So Ertz gave you an average weekly advantage of more than 3 points.

You're running the wrong numbers. In typical 12-team leagues, you get 24 RBs starting each week in a league with no flex and around 30RBs starting each week in a league with a flex. Only 12 TEs are likely to start even with a flex... maybe up to 13 or 14.

So, you need to compare Gordon to the top 24 and Kelce to the top 12 or Gordon to the top 30 and Kelce to the top 13 or 14. Those are the important numbers, not Gordon to the top 12.

In addition, when you talk about positional advantage, it's not just relative to the other starters. It's relative to the likely available replacement players. The waiver wire TE pool is usually faaaaar deeper than waiver wire RB pool for viable fill-ins. That puts more of a premium on the RB position, as well.

Still, let's focus first on the numbers. Re-run your stats for RBs in the top-24/30 relative to TEs in the top 12/13-14, and then we can continue our debate.

Great post, by the way!!

[M-Dub]

You make a valid point. I guess I figured that since Gordon is widely regarded as an RB1, he should only be compared against other RB1s, but that obviously doesn’t account for the advantage the OP would gain by replacing Miller with Freeman as his RB2. You’d probably need to run the numbers on Freeman, Gordon and Miller against the top 24 RBs, as well as Ertz and Kittle against the top 12 TEs, in order to determine the actual gain/loss in overall production. Unfortunately, I’m at work and don’t have time to do all that right now, but I will certainly acknowledge that there’s more to it than I originally posited.

There’s also the fact that we’d just be using last year’s stats, and while all five players are in essentially the same situation, it’s admittedly not as simple as just copying and pasting last year’s stats into this year’s production. All we’re really determining is how much of an advantage/disadvantage this trade would’ve been last year. You’d probably want to use your most trusted set of projections to determine the value this year.

It’s an interesting conversation regardless. Thanks for keeping me honest.

[moishetreats]

You make a valid point. I guess I figured that since Gordon is widely regarded as an RB1, he should only be compared against other RB1s, but that obviously doesn’t account for the advantage the OP would gain by replacing Miller with Freeman as his RB2. You’d probably need to run the numbers on Freeman, Gordon and Miller against the top 24 RBs, as well as Ertz and Kittle against the top 12 TEs, in order to determine the actual gain/loss in overall production. Unfortunately, I’m at work and don’t have time to do all that right now, but I will certainly acknowledge that there’s more to it than I originally posited.

There’s also the fact that we’d just be using last year’s stats, and while all five players are in essentially the same situation, it’s admittedly not as simple as just copying and pasting last year’s stats into this year’s production. All we’re really determining is how much of an advantage/disadvantage this trade would’ve been last year. You’d probably want to use your most trusted set of projections to determine the value this year.

It’s an interesting conversation regardless. Thanks for keeping me honest.

Love the reply! Thanks for giving me more to think about, too!!