Who do I keep???

General discussion and team advice concerning Redraft & Keeper leagues.
JohnnyHrvat
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Who do I keep???

Postby JohnnyHrvat » Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:48 pm

I'm in a 12 team Standard scoring 4 Keeper League. Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex (RB/WR/TE). All scoring including QB
Pass TDs are worth 6 points.

I'm keeping Hopkins, Allen and Adams, but Im struggling with my 4th is keeper.

I have Watson, Henry, Mixon and Hyde.

I finished 2nd and will be drafting 11th. First two rounds are 1 to 12 then a snake.

Leaning on Watson or Henry if Murray is cut.

Somebody has to drop Jones or Hill and another has to drop a Theilen or Robinson.

Any thoughts on my 4th Keeper??? I don't like keeping a QB, but I like a 1-2 punch with Watson with Hopkins where Watson's a print could make up the difference of a weak RB. Im just not sold on Henry....

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hjernazian
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Re: Who do I keep???

Postby hjernazian » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:36 am

this is as tough as it comes, but question for you. the players you mentioned that have to be dropped on the other teams: how would you add them? do you have FA$ that can be allocated toward it? blind bidding? waiver?

with that said, I think it really is a coin flip between Watson and Henry.

I think value can be had at a single QB league very easily, however, if Watson continue on the tear he was on prior to injury, he could be a difference maker in the position (much like RG3 winning many teams a title several years back).

It is almost certain that TEN cuts loose with Demarco, it's 6 mil in cap space that is much needed, and even if they don't I think he'll surely back up Henry and be less of a 1-2 punch. Additionally, they moved on from Mularky (thank god) and think that offense really kills it next year.

I know I'm not making your decision easy, but it is a coin-flip.. and with the possibility of landing A. Rob as a flex I'd likely roll with Watson and gamble to win the position handedly weekly.
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

JohnnyHrvat
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Re: Who do I keep???

Postby JohnnyHrvat » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:24 am

Thanks for your reply. Simple FF league. Keep 4 players, no drafting penalty or FAB. Players just go back in the draft

I'm certain that at my 11th spot in the draft, I won't be able to snag a Jones / Hill from the owner who will likely expose one as his other likely keepers are Hunt, Kamara, and DJ . Another is in a similar position who has to expose Robinson or Thielen.

The reason why I mentioned of the above players is that if they will be available in the first, other teams with some RBs will be grabbing WRs in the first where some will be drafting rookie RBs who are part of the main draft.

That will give me a chance to grab a good RB2 as my RB1 late in the first if I don't keep Henry. Or maybe draft Watson if I keep Henry, but I can see them both gone before my draft spot if I keep the other..

I think Watson could be a difference maker, too, if he continues to score even close to last year. That's why I'm struggling with this. I don't like keeping QBs. Lol he could make up for weak scoring RB1.

I will be in a tough drafting decision if I don't keep a RB and Robinson is available at my 11th spot.... (he was available 9 or 10th last year after the four keeper) 'd likely take him as my Flex if he lands on a team with a better QB and then start drafting RBs like crazy after that and work the waivers. (Forgot to mention the bench is short with only 5 slots plus IR so there's plenty of waiver activity). I think I'd pass on Theilen (assuming the owner keeps Robinson instead) late in the first if I don't keep a RB and draft a RB there. Not sold on him just yet and especially with a RB hole in my lineup.

My thoughts coming into last years draft was to keep Hopkins, Allen, Henry and Mixon. Then Mixon or Henry didn't play well for various reasons, somebody dropped Adams after his first concussion and I picked Watson off waivers just as he exploded. (That's how I got Allen....He was out for the year and somebody dropped him instead of using their IR spot. He's a Keeper quality for any team and nobody grabbed him)

RBs are valued quite a bit in this league, especially top RBs. Some keep QBs.

But you're right. Right now, it's a coin flip between Watson and Henry.
Last edited by JohnnyHrvat on Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:02 am, edited 2 times in total.

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hjernazian
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Re: Who do I keep???

Postby hjernazian » Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:50 am

great point. and one thing that stands out is you only have 5 bench spots - meaning, most will not be able to roster another QB, meaning, there will be top 10 talent there for the picking at QB. with that said, you take Henry, and hope that Watson, A Rob or a slew of others drop to you at 11. The bench spots is the deciding factor for me. But man, is that shallow!!!!
Team 1

Superflex, 1.0 point PPR

QB: P. Mahomes $5, C. Newton $20, B. Mayfield $2, D. Brees
RB: D. Johnson $54, N. Chubb $4, T. Coleman $4, D. Henry $14, I. Crowell $3, J. Richard $9, J. Adams $3
WR: A. Robinson $41, T.Y. Hilton $24, J. Landry $25, C. Davis $4, C. Godwin $4, D. Hamilton $3, K. Cole, S. Shephard $10
TE: E. Engram $4, D. Njoku $2, K. Rudolph $3, V. McDonald $4
K/DEF: Irrelevant

2019: 2.04, 2.05, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06

Team 2

Start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE - 25 man roster + 4 TAXI

QB: T. Brady, M. Ryan, N. Foles
RB: K. Hunt, C. McCaffrey, D. Johnson, T. Coleman, S. Ware, D. Williams, Ito Smith, D. Sproles
WR: AJ Green, A. Robinson, A. Thielen, E. Sanders, G. Tate, S. Roberts
TE: J. Reed, J. Butt, M. Roberts, V. Davis, M. Williams
TAXI: S. Darnold, D. Fountain, D. Cain, Jaleel Scott

JohnnyHrvat
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Re: Who do I keep???

Postby JohnnyHrvat » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:14 am

I've modified some of my response above.
Yes, shallow bench but many members roster two QBs still. Mainly for bye weeks but possible to block others from having a good QB option. Could be also to see which QB is in the dumps by week 5 to 8 and then drop the weaker QB.

QBs score 6 pts for a TD so those that score more than the average should hold more value.

One member has Brady and Wentz and will keep one. Traded for Brady and Cooks for the same 1-2 punch, but Cooks is boom or bust. Time to cash out and drop Brady for Wentz if I'm keeping a QB long-term.

If Watson, Brady / Wentz, Brees, Luck (not stashed on team) are gone in the first, I'll just wait on a QB. Could still be plenty of solid QBs

Ill have to see how the off-season plays out but thanks again for the reply

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Blackout
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Re: Who do I keep???

Postby Blackout » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:33 am

Hopkins, Allen, Adams and Watson for me.

It's possible Henry and Mixon won't break out in 2018.

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Re: Who do I keep???

Postby Mustachio » Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:55 pm

I have a similar league. Watch for who is keeping QBs. If most of the teams around 5-10 are keeping a QB or need help elsewhere, it's very unlikely that Watson gets picked and you can grab him again if you really want him.

If you don't think he'll be there, the alternative is to trade, which could work out well here. My strategy is to have balance, and I don't see how you can maintain balance here without selling a WR. I'd try shop Allen for a mid-first and swap seconds. All that said, the sample size on Watson (while out of this world) is low. Then you could keep Henry or Hyde depending on situation. I don't trust Bengals RBs at all.

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Jimi Hendrix
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Re: Who do I keep???

Postby Jimi Hendrix » Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:35 pm

Watson :thumbup:
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