Ajayi as 2nd or Fat Rob as 10th

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Slackalacker
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Ajayi as 2nd or Fat Rob as 10th

Postby Slackalacker » Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:04 pm

I'm in a 12 team 2 man Keeper league, where your keeper takes the place of their ADP.

Of the two keepers I have to keep, they cannot be two of the same position. I'm already keeping AB as a no brainer for my first rounder which is Pick 9

Keeping Ajayi would be my 2nd round pick, at 16 ovr (smack dab on fantasy pros ppr adp) or Fat Rob would net me my 10th round pick.

My question to you is who is the better pick for the value? Due to other keepers there is a possibility of having one of players such as Jordy/J Howard/M Thomas/ TY fall to me (but I cannot be sure of this)

I should also note it's a 3WR and 1 WR/TE flex (no TE premium) and 1ppr. This leads me to think I'd be better off getting two top tier WRs in the first and second and keeping fat rob, maybe getting Perine in the late rounds too. But it could also backfire and I could end up with an injury prone WR such as Sammy or Alshon (injuries are killer because we only have a 5 man bench and no IR) plus no bellcow.
TEAM 1 - 10 team SF 1PPR | 2017 & 2019 League Champ
1QB/1SF/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX
QB: Dak - Hurts - DangeRuss - Tua - Z Wilson - Mills
RB: Barkley - Zeke - Sanders - Pollard - Patterson - D’Ernest - Jermar - Evans - Jones
WR: Hill - JJeff - Higgins - Hollywood - MThom(IR) - Godwin(IR) - E Moore - Marshall Jr - Calloway - Palmer - D Brown
TE: Hock - Moreau

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Re: Ajayi as 2nd or Fat Rob as 10th

Postby moishetreats » Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:19 am

Can you keep neither? That would be my recommendation.

Otherwise, a 2nd is too premium of a pick to use to keep Ajayi. By default, that means Kelley is your keeper.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: Ajayi as 2nd or Fat Rob as 10th

Postby Slackalacker » Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:55 am

I'm required to have 2 Keepers and cannot have multiples at one position so WR is out, leaving me to decide at RB/TE/QB

My other options are

Luck 6th
AP 6th
Eifert 7th
Cousins 7th
Rawls 10th

But since there is no Dedicated TE slot that seems to diminish the value of eifert since TEs are almost completely forgotten in this league (most people start 4 WRs)

Scoring is standard for QBs meaning it's much too early to take one there.
TEAM 1 - 10 team SF 1PPR | 2017 & 2019 League Champ
1QB/1SF/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX
QB: Dak - Hurts - DangeRuss - Tua - Z Wilson - Mills
RB: Barkley - Zeke - Sanders - Pollard - Patterson - D’Ernest - Jermar - Evans - Jones
WR: Hill - JJeff - Higgins - Hollywood - MThom(IR) - Godwin(IR) - E Moore - Marshall Jr - Calloway - Palmer - D Brown
TE: Hock - Moreau

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Re: Ajayi as 2nd or Fat Rob as 10th

Postby moishetreats » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:11 am

Slackalacker wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:55 am I'm required to have 2 Keepers and cannot have multiples at one position so WR is out, leaving me to decide at RB/TE/QB

My other options are

Luck 6th
AP 6th
Eifert 7th
Cousins 7th
Rawls 10th

But since there is no Dedicated TE slot that seems to diminish the value of eifert since TEs are almost completely forgotten in this league (most people start 4 WRs)

Scoring is standard for QBs meaning it's much too early to take one there.

It's really a question of return on investment. Ajayi -- at best!! -- will return a second-round investment. But, that's a gamble that I'm not willing to take with such a premium pick. Kelley will almost probably not return a tenth-round investment, but I'd rather "lose" the tenth-round pick than gamble with the second-round pick.

Similarly, AP and Eifert have no chance of returning their investment. Luck and Cousins, on the other hand, have a so-so chance of returning that investment. Since they are far later picks than Ajayi, I would keep either one of the QBs over him. Also, since Kelley is likely a lost pick, I would keep either one of the QBs over Kelley.

Finally, I'm not a Rawls fan. But, if he hits, then he will return an investment far greater than the tenth-round pick that it costs you to keep him. Given that his is the lowest cost by pick of any player but also has the highest ROI, I'd keep him.

I'm only using the ROI thought because there isn't really a player with keeping at this cost. If, say, Cousins were a 14th, then you'd just keep him. Absent that, I'll use the ROI model to make the decision... and Rawls is the clear winner for me.
10 tms 27 plrs PPR
Start: 2QB 2RB 3WR 2TE 2Flex / best ball

QB: Herbert, Love, Rodgers, G Smith, Stidham, T Taylor, Hall
RB: McCaffrey, Mixon, Pacheco, Montgomery, Z White, Allgeier, Dillon
WR: Hill, St. Brown, Kupp, Allen, Lockett, B Johnson
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Kraft, Okonkwo, Dulcich, Tremble

2024: 2.09, 3.07, 3.08, 3.10, 4.08
2025: 2nd (x2), 4th, 5th (x2)
2026: 1st, 2nd (x2), 3rd, 4th, 5th



12 tms 22 active plyrs. Salary Cap $300 PPR
Start: 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1SF 1Flex / best ball

QB: Lawrence (contract through 2026), Love ('24), Rodgers ('24), Stidham ('25), Lock ('25)
RB: Bijan Robinson ('25), Pollard ('27), Dillon ('24), Rodriguez ('24), Spiller ('24)
WR: G Wilson ('26), AJ Brown ('26), DJ Montgomery ('25)
TE: --
2024 Cap Spent: $186

IR: --
TAXI SQUAD (4 max): --

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Re: Ajayi as 2nd or Fat Rob as 10th

Postby Slackalacker » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:54 am

moishetreats wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:11 am
Slackalacker wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:55 am I'm required to have 2 Keepers and cannot have multiples at one position so WR is out, leaving me to decide at RB/TE/QB

My other options are

Luck 6th
AP 6th
Eifert 7th
Cousins 7th
Rawls 10th

But since there is no Dedicated TE slot that seems to diminish the value of eifert since TEs are almost completely forgotten in this league (most people start 4 WRs)

Scoring is standard for QBs meaning it's much too early to take one there.

It's really a question of return on investment. Ajayi -- at best!! -- will return a second-round investment. But, that's a gamble that I'm not willing to take with such a premium pick. Kelley will almost probably not return a tenth-round investment, but I'd rather "lose" the tenth-round pick than gamble with the second-round pick.

Similarly, AP and Eifert have no chance of returning their investment. Luck and Cousins, on the other hand, have a so-so chance of returning that investment. Since they are far later picks than Ajayi, I would keep either one of the QBs over him. Also, since Kelley is likely a lost pick, I would keep either one of the QBs over Kelley.

Finally, I'm not a Rawls fan. But, if he hits, then he will return an investment far greater than the tenth-round pick that it costs you to keep him. Given that his is the lowest cost by pick of any player but also has the highest ROI, I'd keep him.

I'm only using the ROI thought because there isn't really a player with keeping at this cost. If, say, Cousins were a 14th, then you'd just keep him. Absent that, I'll use the ROI model to make the decision... and Rawls is the clear winner for me.
I'm with you on ROI. It really is a bummer I don't have better valued options, the keeper based on ADP makes it more difficult unless you have two obvi first round picks. I may just roll with Rawls (I'm a Hawks fan and love Rawls but I know that backfield is a disaster for fantasy implications) and roll the dice on maybe snagging Michael Thomas or TY in the 2nd round.
TEAM 1 - 10 team SF 1PPR | 2017 & 2019 League Champ
1QB/1SF/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX
QB: Dak - Hurts - DangeRuss - Tua - Z Wilson - Mills
RB: Barkley - Zeke - Sanders - Pollard - Patterson - D’Ernest - Jermar - Evans - Jones
WR: Hill - JJeff - Higgins - Hollywood - MThom(IR) - Godwin(IR) - E Moore - Marshall Jr - Calloway - Palmer - D Brown
TE: Hock - Moreau

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Re: Ajayi as 2nd or Fat Rob as 10th

Postby hockeyBjj » Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:00 pm

Really shitty keeper league settings. Should at least be keep the guy for the round that you drafted him, not where his adp falls this year

I'd rather have a second over Ajayi, and if other goodies get gobbled up you can always just take him back with your pick

I'd go Rawls in the 10th. He could really outperform his 10th round adp if he wins his job back from Cheesebburger Eddie, which camp rumors are hinting to
Team 1- 10 team ppr, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flx, 1D, 1K
2022: 1-8
Finishes: 6th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th
QB: Lamar Jackson, Purdy
RB: Bijan, Dobbins, Achane, Charbonnet, Algier, McBride, waiver trash
WR: JSN, QJ, Addison, Dotson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Hyatt, T Dell, Boutte, Skowronek, Quez Watkins, Greg Dortch, waiver trash
TE: Hockenson, F Monroe, Juwan, Musgrave
D/K: Patriots, Vikings, Saints, Dicker

picks-
2024- 1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,5,5
2025 1,1,1,2,3,4,5

team 2- 12 team SF, .5PPR, .5TE boost, 1QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2Flex
2022: 8-1
Finishes: 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd :wall:
QB: Ljax, GenoD Jones, Minshew, Dobbs
RB: CMC, Stevenson, A Jones, Chubb, A Mattison, D cook, Perine, Mckinnon,
WR:Tyreek, Diggs, C Kupp, D Adams, Keenan Allen, Lockett, Gallup, A Lazard, Hodgins
TE: Kelce, LaPorta, Irv Smith,
No picks until 2026 5th rounder lol


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