The Big 5 WR Narrative Is Dead

[deputylefty]

Evans is certainly NOT in the top tier of dynasty WRs right now. The question is: are you willing to trade a WR currently in the top tier who is at or near his peak for a WR who may join the top tier who is just starting his career and who looks the part. It's a gamble I am willing to take.

[ninotoreS]

What's the difference between 2013 Alshon and 2014 Evans?

Evans is bigger, playing with less offensive talent on a team with a terrible line with a worse version of Josh McCown and a mediocre, second year QB. More importantly, he's a rookie with less overall football experience.

One huge factor you're overlooking there in your comparison: Evans isn't competing for targets with another elite fantasy WR1, an elite pass-catching fantasy RB1, and a mid-range fantasy TE1.

We can only imagine what Jeffery would be doing with Evans' opportunity right now. He's competing with a visibly declining Vincent Jackson for targets, and... that's it, really.

[MEuRaH]

I strongly disagree that Evans is in the top tier discussion. I need more than a stretch of a few good games before I crown him as elite. Could he be? Sure, but it is wayyy to early to call him that yet.

I love how you disagree about Evans being on the top tier discussion, then continue on discussing how he doesn't yet belong in the top tier. If it's not worth discussing.... then....... why....................... did you..................... you know....... do it?

[Cameron Giles]

One huge factor you're overlooking there in your comparison: Evans isn't competing for targets with another elite fantasy WR1, an elite pass-catching fantasy RB1, and a mid-range fantasy TE1.

We can only imagine what Jeffery would be doing with Evans' opportunity right now. He's competing with a visibly declining Vincent Jackson for targets, and... that's it, really.

You could easily make the case that playing with Marshall, Forte and Bennett in a pass-happy offense helps Evans case more than it does Alshon's. Evans isn't playing in a good offense and doesn't have nearly as much talent around him to feed off of.

Also, Jackson is still getting the same amount of targets Evans does. Since Evans returned to the lineup, Jackson is out-targeting him 47-44. With Jackson likely gone in the offseason, Evans is going to get a ton of workload unless ASJ steps up or they find another WR.

[dynastyninja]

I strongly disagree that Evans is in the top tier discussion. I need more than a stretch of a few good games before I crown him as elite. Could he be? Sure, but it is wayyy to early to call him that yet.

I love how you disagree about Evans being on the top tier discussion, then continue on discussing how he doesn't yet belong in the top tier. If it's not worth discussing.... then....... why....................... did you..................... you know....... do it?

Is this a serious question right now?

[RGKID144]

For me, the big 5 are just simply the WR's in this league that can plug in to any team, any system, with any personnel around them, and succeed at a high level. This doesn't necessarily mean they have to be a top 5 player every year, but it does mean that you can pencil them in for a finish ranging anywhere from the #1 overall to the #20th overall every year. Every player in the NFL has up and down years, but the big 5 are the guys who have the size, speed, measurables, tangibles, intangibles, and you know that they will remain in the upper echelon of rankings throughout their career no matter what happens. Be it a team change, QB change, injury, suspension, or whatever factor of the laundry list of things that shape fantasy value every year(because there is a long list of things).

Calvin, Dez, Julio, AJG, and DT are the guys who are going to see major changes in their career like most players in the NFL, they may change teams, lose a top QB(peyton manning, anyone?), deal with nagging injuries, run their mouth, but will always be a fantasy factor anywhere from the #1 overall on a good year to #20 overall in a very down year.

Guys like Antonio Brown or TY Hilton are complete monsters. However, they are so locked in with their respective teams QB's and Offensive systems, so much so that I just wouldn't feel comfortable penciling them in were something drastic to change their situation. I would feel comfortable inserting any of the big 5 into any team's system, etc and say they will produce at a very high level.

I'm not bashing Antonio Brown, TY, or any great WR outside of the big 5, but this is IMO the reason why they are considered elite. It's misleading because their stats aren't necessarily the top 5 every year, or ever. It's more like, your in the "big 5" because I can trust you for the next 3-5 years as a fantasy contributor(anywhere in the top 15-20 WR's at the very least with no ceiling), which is something very rare(Michael Floyd, Justin Blackmon?). Longevity is extremely overlooked often in dynasty leagues today. Guys like Flacco, who may not be QB1's every year, are criminally undervalued. There is WAY too much turnover in fantasy to not want to target all the "lock" players. It's all about the "no ceiling" guys today. However, the Flacco's are the guys that are REALLY invaluable IMO.

[schiewerma21]

These rookies definately have changed the look.

Watkins and Evans are already elite and certainly in my top 10.

I also think beckham junior is knocking on the door just below the
"Alshon, Watkins, Evans, jordy, Cobb, Gordon tier.

[ericanadian]

To me, there's still a tier of five at the top: AJG, Dez, Demaryius, Julio, and Antonio Brown. These guys are cornerstones of rebuilds and contenders alike. After that, the next tier depends on whether you're rebuilding or contending.

For a rebuild, I'd argue that Watkins and Evans are in a half-tier of their own, with Calvin, Alshon, Jordy, Beckham, Cobb, and Benjamin following behind.

For a contender, Calvin, Jordy, Evans, and Watkins are close behind the top guys, with Alshon, Beckham, Cobb, and Benjamin a full tier behind.

The biggest wild card in this is Gordon. Without seeing him play this season, I'd put him toward the bottom of the Calvin/Alshon/Jordy/... tier for a rebuilding team and the bottom of the Calvin/Evans/Watkins/Jordy tier for a contender.

That's a very well thought out response - I agree and have thought in the past that rankings for Dynasty should be split for Rebuilding rankings and Contending rankings. This very much takes that into account.

Having said that, I'm higher on Gordon despite the risk, and until we know whether Cobb is back as a Packer or not I'm hesitant to put him with the others mentioned in his tier. I firmly believe he is producing at this level because of the HOF QB effect.

To me, a contender can easily look at redraft rankings for a reference point. I tend to base dynasty rankings slightly weighted towards rebuild.

[deputylefty]

Great stuff so far. So many things to consider: age, talent, situation, QB, consistency, etc. There's no "right answer" on this.

[dynastyninja]

Watkins and Evans are not elite. I can't even believe people are suggesting this right now.

[MEuRaH]

In my opinion, Watkins and Evans are not elite. I can't even believe different people have different view points and opinions.

Fixed that for you.

[terryb24]

Watkins and Evans are not elite. I can't even believe people are suggesting this right now.

They are showing signs of being elite which is making everyone excited. I don't think they are in the top tier yet because I need to see them consistently put up top numbers.

[dynastyninja]

In my opinion, Watkins and Evans are not elite. I can't even believe different people have different view points and opinions.

Fixed that for you.

Having fun?

[ajmyk]

I get considering Evans. He's been as consistant as any top WR for 2 months now. His worst fantasy game since Atlanta in week 3 was a 4/78/0 against the vikings. (and another game he didn't play because of injury)
And this line looks like what Julio is doing every week

Evans looked like a rookie for 3 games and that's it.

But Watkins on the other hand has been vert shaky. Doesn't matter how good he looks when he torches a loose coverage, he can't be considered elite while he's putting up crappy duds every second week.

This season, Watkins had 6 games under 35 yards, 6 !

How many games under 35 yards do you think Evans had ?

ZERO, that's right , zero.

Clearly not the same case.

[Dingram]

there is so much more talent at WR than there has been in years. Someone mentioned the "big 5" as the 1st 5 WR's off the board in drafts. That's is perfectly fine to me, & hope more people have that mentality. If I can get 2/4 of Evans, Watkins, Jeffery, &/or Beckam (yes Beckham), to start a team next season, I'll be estatic.