Rookie Rankings

[MR ROURKE]

3) Gonna be a good race in NY. Two things I see holding Wilson back to start. He has to correct his fumbling issue, which I have faith he will. But he also has to learn an enormous and in depth playbook. Most rookies don't jump right in there. For that reason I see Ware, Brown or Scott winning the battle off the bat, with Wilson earning time as the year goes on.

Plus, Wilson tries to break everything to the outside. He'll have to become a RB who has the fortitude to run up the middle in the NFL to make it.

[jthirteentimes]

3) Gonna be a good race in NY. Two things I see holding Wilson back to start. He has to correct his fumbling issue, which I have faith he will. But he also has to learn an enormous and in depth playbook. Most rookies don't jump right in there. For that reason I see Ware, Brown or Scott winning the battle off the bat, with Wilson earning time as the year goes on.

Plus, Wilson tries to break everything to the outside. He'll have to become a RB who has the fortitude to run up the middle in the NFL to make it.

I'm really confused because I have read so many comments like this about Wilson, yet I just don't understand where it's coming from. I actually overlooked him for a long time because of the things I read on this forum. But, once I watched him with an open mind, I have to say that I'm seeing a much different player than I'm reading about.

He actually runs with a TON of toughness, and doesn't shy away from running between the tackles. In fact, I would say he's fairly effective at it. There are plenty of plays where he grinds out tough yards up the middle. Plus, he is extremely fast and quick and from all accounts has a strong character. Not to mention that he landed in a fantastic situation, if you ask me.

From what I can tell his two biggest weaknesses are his vision/decision making and his ball security. Both of these are extremely coachable. I just don't understand why people are so adamant that he bounces everything to the outside when the tape suggests otherwise. People are describing CJ Spiller in college; a guy who bounced everything to the corner and shied away from contact. But, Wilson doesn't seem to emulate Spiller in either case.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXCcr6FN-SM

I'm actually starting to wonder why Martin is ranked so far ahead of Wilson.

[Amoo]

Maybe he doesn't shy away from contact, but he does bounce A LOT of runs outside. I would say most of his better runs. That's great in college, but it won't work in the NFL. Even guys with world class speed (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles) do most of their work running between the tackles. He may be tough enough to run the ball inside, he just needs the willingness to get the 4 yard run instead of losing 2 tryin to hit the home run.

[Amoo]

And I don't know if you and I watched the same clip... 80% of the runs were were either designed outside runs, or runs he bounced outside. The inside runs I saw were about 2 successful and a fumble. The first 2 runs are what we need to see more of. But they just don't come consistantly.

[jthirteentimes]

And I don't know if you and I watched the same clip... 80% of the runs were were either designed outside runs, or runs he bounced outside. The inside runs I saw were about 2 successful and a fumble. The first 2 runs are what we need to see more of. But they just don't come consistantly.

We must not be watching the same tape, or we have different definitions of what it means to bounce a run to the outside. I'm just not seeing it.

[lukeb]

From what I can tell his two biggest weaknesses are his vision/decision making and his ball security. Both of these are extremely coachable. I just don't understand why people are so adamant that he bounces everything to the outside when the tape suggests otherwise. People are describing CJ Spiller in college; a guy who bounced everything to the corner and shied away from contact. But, Wilson doesn't seem to emulate Spiller in either case.

Ball security is definitely coachable. But I'm not so sure about vision. Vision seems more like an innate, you have it or you don't. You can most likely improve it over time, but the best backs are a cut above that I'm not sure can be taught

[Lumps]

I've loved all the Wilson hate, it has allowed me to get him in both my leagues.

I really don't know what people are watching that think he can't power through contact or can't run inside.

Good job, though. I LOVE this kid. His enthusiasm, balance, and freakish measurables are off the charts.

[jthirteentimes]

From what I can tell his two biggest weaknesses are his vision/decision making and his ball security. Both of these are extremely coachable. I just don't understand why people are so adamant that he bounces everything to the outside when the tape suggests otherwise. People are describing CJ Spiller in college; a guy who bounced everything to the corner and shied away from contact. But, Wilson doesn't seem to emulate Spiller in either case.

Ball security is definitely coachable. But I'm not so sure about vision. Vision seems more like an innate, you have it or you don't. You can most likely improve it over time, but the best backs are a cut above that I'm not sure can be taught

That's a fair point, but I'd say it's debatable whether he lacks vision or if he lacks decision making. The latter is certainly coachable, and that's what I'd argue he needs to improve on. He seems to be able to find the lanes (vision) but sometimes takes takes the wrong one or goes for the riskier option (decision making). I'm really surprised to find myself saying this right now, but I'm actually leaning towards Wilson as the #2 RB in this class. Martin seems like the safer, more well-rounded pick, but Wilson definitely has more upside. Also, I'd argue that Wilson's situation is as good - if not better - than Martin's. A lot of Martin's situation is tied to Schiano's scheme, but who knows how he will pan out.

[holy_stromboli]

I've longed all the Wilson hate, it has allowed me to get him in both my leagues.

I really don't know what people are watching that think he can't power through contact or can't run inside.

Good job, though. I LOVE this kid. His enthusiasm, balance, and freakish measurables are off the charts.

Not so loud......

[MR ROURKE]

I like Wilson, but he has to learn to take what the defense gives him and not dance behind the line in hopes of trying to get a home run all the time. The word I heard from Giants camp is that they have liked what they've seen, but Wilson is trying to bounce things to the outside there as well. He won't be productive dancing behing the line in the NFL, so he needs to learn to hit the hole and take what he can.

[Cw4499]

I'm at 1.05 and will probably have to choose beween Blackmon, Floyd and Wilson. I already own Fitzgerald so I dont really want Floyd, and now that Blackmon has gotten himself in trouble so I may want to go with Wilson and pick up a WR at 1.11. I am not sure if Wilson is worth passing on Blackmon.

As much as you study these players, it comes down to who's left when your turn comes up. But my worst drafts have been because I strayed fom my plan because of what I thought was an unexpected opportunity.

I passed on McCoy a few years ago and went with Harvin because I thought Vick would vulture all the TD's
in Philadelphia. You can overthink this stuff to death.

[Lumps]

I've had great success with people wanting to move up for Blackmon or Floyd. Talk to other teams, trade back a spot or two, pick up a late second or such, take Wilson.

[Raven_Lunatics]

I have a late rookie draft coming up and sitting at 1.06 in a 14 team league.

If Just 'Got Blasted' Blackmon is there...what do you do?

[Barian Fostate]

I wait until after the draft, an then visit every SB nation blog to get their reactions and analysis on the picks I'm interested in. Generally I only trust those sites because they know their own teams better than any actual fantasy site. They can tell me how a back up guard will affect Roy Helu's performance, whereas a fantasy "guru" cannot.

Once I collect their analyses I make a pro and con list for every player, look at his schedule and figure out how consistent he is likely to be, guestimate season totals and progression to becoming a starter, an then rank him on a big bleep excel sheet.

[Barian Fostate]

I have a late rookie draft coming up and sitting at 1.06 in a 14 team league.

If Just 'Got Blasted' Blackmon is there...what do you do?

Take Floyd.