Rookie Rankings

[Fishdawg65]

I am trying to determine the best way to rank rookies. I use a formula that I constructed but I'm wonder if it is close to what others are thinking. Each stat is ranked from 1 to 10 where higher is better.

Overall = (Talent * .5) + (Starting points projection * .25) + (Future points projection * .25)

Here is how my initial rankings are:
Ovr Tal Str Dyn Pos Tem Name
10 10 10 10 QB IND Andrew Luck
10 10 10 10 QB WAS Robert Griffin III
10 10 10 10 RB CLE Trent Richardson
9 9 9 9 RB TB Doug Martin
9 9 9 9 WR JAC Justin Blackmon
8.75 9 8 9 WR ARI Michael Floyd
8.75 9 8 9 RB NYG David Wilson


So how do others rank rookies and/or decide who is the BPA?

[invisibulman]

I initially rank players prior to being drafted, so it is purely a talent/nfl skills translation type ranking. That sets the baseline.

At the top of the rankings, I usually bias rankings for team need, but no more than about 2 spots. This bias decreases the deeper you go because anyone outside of round 1 is unlikely to start for you this year.

Following the draft, I adjust players up and down based on what round they were taken and by whom. Someone like Lamar Miller took a big hit this year because he was drafted so late. Clearly the NFL scouts knew something we didn't... and I won't claim to be smarter than they are. As far as landing spot, early action is an advantage insofar as it leads to better future production prospects. David Wilson is a better back than Doug Martin in my opinion. However, if Wilson doesn't get opportunities it limits the likelihood of him reaching his ultimate potential.

[devildog165]

Talent, College Production, Situation, Team.

Pretty much like that I guess.

Talent is the most important, but not the only thing I consider by a long shot. This is just how good do these guys appear. I get leary of the guys that killed it in college because of their speed, because EVERYONE is fast in the NFL (looking at you Reggie Bush and Ted Ginn Jr.).

College Production. This is pretty important. Often times people (NFL scouts included) just fall in love with a guy even though he did nothing in college. Or they will over look a very productive Soph, JR season because the guy had a drop his Sr year or had an injury or switched to a smaller school ect.

Situation. These last two appear the same based on title but aren't. Situation is how the team around them is set up. Rueben Randle, Hill, Blackmon and Floyd all are about as talented as each other. Blackmon and Hill landed in probably the worst possible spots in the NFL. Floyd is in and odd situation. He plays opposite Fitz and will learn from him which is incredibly helpful to him, but Arizona has a lackluster QB and run game. Randle is an odd situation as well. The Giants are a great offense with a great QB. The "problem" is they have Cruz and Nicks cemented in the starting rolls, so Randle will have to beat out a bunch of other WRs to get on the field. That is my WR break down.

Team. As stated NFL scouts and GMs know WAY more than we can possibly know. Seriously, they have access to medical records ect lol. So I look for good GMs and good drafting teams, and if they take a player I bump them up a little bit. Giants (under Reese) and Patriots are two of the best drafting teams in football. If they like a player that weighs heavily in my book.


Never thought of handing out points, maybe I should. That seems like a pretty cool idea.

[TheOracle]

If you look at teams with good draft track records, Baltimore, GB and especially Pittsburgh should be considered.

[devildog165]

If you look at teams with good draft track records, Baltimore, GB and especially Pittsburgh should be considered.

I agree, didn't name all the good teams, just the two I think are the best as an example. Seems like Pittsburgh likes to draft head cases though lol, might just be how I view them though.

[TheOracle]

The thing with Pittsburgh is that they're a top 5 franchise, and their players are almost 100% through the draft. Pittsburgh doesn't sign free agents and they don't make trades. I was down on Chris Rainey, (I still am) but the fact that Pittsburgh drafted him wonder if the Sproles comps are that far off.

[devildog165]

The thing with Pittsburgh is that they're a top 5 franchise, and their players are almost 100% through the draft. Pittsburgh doesn't sign free agents and they don't make trades. I was down on Chris Rainey, (I still am) but the fact that Pittsburgh drafted him wonder if the Sproles comps are that far off.

Funny he is the player I thought of as well. With their RB situation I think Rainey might end up on my roster at some point. The Giants actually said they had David WIlson graded higher than Martin. Didn't seem like they were just saying it to boost his ego either, I think it was legit. Just not sure if he beats out the other RBs Scott and Ware, but he looks to be very solid.

[MR ROURKE]

The thing with Pittsburgh is that they're a top 5 franchise, and their players are almost 100% through the draft. Pittsburgh doesn't sign free agents and they don't make trades. I was down on Chris Rainey, (I still am) but the fact that Pittsburgh drafted him wonder if the Sproles comps are that far off.

Funny he is the player I thought of as well. With their RB situation I think Rainey might end up on my roster at some point. The Giants actually said they had David WIlson graded higher than Martin. Didn't seem like they were just saying it to boost his ego either, I think it was legit. Just not sure if he beats out the other RBs Scott and Ware, but he looks to be very solid.

He'll compete with Scott in the preseason, but Ware sucks as a RB and is more of a special team player. Wilson seems to bounce everything to the outside, so he might have his hands full beating out a RB of Scott's size and speed.

[holy_stromboli]

Color me in the minority, but I actually think Wilson is being underrated a little. For some reason, I am reminded of CJ Spiller when he came out as a prospect. Both quick guys, fairly similar builds, same conference even. Both have good burst through the hole. If you draft Wilson, don't expect more than a flex-value ceiling in year one. However, long term I think he is Bradshaw's replacement and dynamic enough that he could thrive even in a RBBC. Keep in mind he is still only 20 years old. In case it wasn't made aware already, Wilson ran a 4.35 40 at his pro day (had a 4.49 at combine, but was recovering from MRSA), so he is in Spiller's class speed wise.

I agree Ware is a special teamer. Scott to me will never be more than a 3rd down back, and he has been very injury prone since college. That leaves Bradshaw, who has feeble feet. He has already said he is looking forward to mentoring Wilson. I think Wilson has the chance to be considered a steal at 1.7 if we were to look back 3 years from now, but of course time will tell. I certainly see the argument for his rank, though. Matter of opinion.

[devildog165]

He'll compete with Scott in the preseason, but Ware sucks as a RB and is more of a special team player. Wilson seems to bounce everything to the outside, so he might have his hands full beating out a RB of Scott's size and speed.

I would not say Ware sucks at RB, but I think he is the #5 RB on that team lol. Bradshaw, Scott, Wilson, Andre Brown then Ware. But I think Ware makes a fine #3 and can handle what they ask him to do. One of these guys will not make the team, I think it will be Brown unfortunately. Wilson vs Scott should be interesting to see. I actually think that might be the future 1/2 punch if they can keep them for a couple more years until AB is finished.

[Fishdawg65]

I am finding more and more flaws with my ranking system. I seem to be "fudging" the numbers so I can get players I like above other players. This isn't really how it is supposed to work at all. With the addition of college production, the number of stats, videos, and other information has made the information to review grow tremendously.

To counter the flaws above, I am going to take big board rankings(before the NFL draft) from a few different sources and average them out. Then I can put notes next to each player to indicate my assessment of the player.

What do you guys think of this?

The NYG backfield, in my opinion, is going to be split between Bradshaw and Wilson this year. Down the line, there will be another player that will split carries with Wilson. This decreases his value while being a member of the NYG increases his value. He will still be around 6-8 in my rankings while Martin will be 3-6.

[devildog165]

I am finding more and more flaws with my ranking system. I seem to be "fudging" the numbers so I can get players I like above other players. This isn't really how it is supposed to work at all. With the addition of college production, the number of stats, videos, and other information has made the information to review grow tremendously.

To counter the flaws above, I am going to take big board rankings(before the NFL draft) from a few different sources and average them out. Then I can put notes next to each player to indicate my assessment of the player.

What do you guys think of this?

The NYG backfield, in my opinion, is going to be split between Bradshaw and Wilson this year. Down the line, there will be another player that will split carries with Wilson. This decreases his value while being a member of the NYG increases his value. He will still be around 6-8 in my rankings while Martin will be 3-6.

A couple thoughts.
1) While we like to win (to me it is the most important thing about FF) we have to remember this is still fantasy football, and so getting players we like is not a bad thing. Don't feel bad about it.

2) If you mean rankings from places like DLF that is a good idea, just find a few places with good rankings. I don't trust what "draft guru's" like Kiper say though. He actually had DE listed as a need for the NYGs this year. Cause only 3 pro bowl ends is not enough. I don't trust anything he says.

3) Gonna be a good race in NY. Two things I see holding Wilson back to start. He has to correct his fumbling issue, which I have faith he will. But he also has to learn an enormous and in depth playbook. Most rookies don't jump right in there. For that reason I see Ware, Brown or Scott winning the battle off the bat, with Wilson earning time as the year goes on.

[holy_stromboli]

3) Gonna be a good race in NY. Two things I see holding Wilson back to start. He has to correct his fumbling issue, which I have faith he will. But he also has to learn an enormous and in depth playbook. Most rookies don't jump right in there. For that reason I see Ware, Brown or Scott winning the battle off the bat, with Wilson earning time as the year goes on.

Agreed. Heed now drafters. Expect nothing out of your rookies in year 1 and be pleasantly surprised if they give you starters production. Most rookies don't come in and pull a Green, Julio, or Cam.

[devildog165]

Agreed. Heed now drafters. Expect nothing out of your rookies in year 1 and be pleasantly surprised if they give you starters production. Most rookies don't come in and pull a Green, Julio, or Cam.

Especially TEs. The two best in the last decade were Gronk and Shockey who but up 114 and 101; hardly a good year in the realm of things.

[Amoo]

Agreed. Heed now drafters. Expect nothing out of your rookies in year 1 and be pleasantly surprised if they give you starters production. Most rookies don't come in and pull a Green, Julio, or Cam.

Especially TEs. The two best in the last decade were Gronk and Shockey who but up 114 and 101; hardly a good year in the realm of things.

Didn't Gronk put up 10 TDs as a rookie? Hardly bad for a rookie TE.