value of offseason deals

[hamburglar]

help me by weighing in on a debate i'm having with my thick headed friend/dynasty commissioner.

he thinks people would be stupid to make a deal now as opposed to waiting until august because you cant know a players value or that the player may have an uncertain future.

to help put this in perspective i am offering my IR QB Matt Cassell to the new owner of our first orphaned team with a terrible roster and two AARP eligible QB's in matt hassleback (36) and peyton manning (36) for a late round draft pick... we will have 19 rounds in 2012 draft and i'm thinking a 14-19th round pick for him... best i can negotiate for him. cause im not gonna keep him so why not get something?

anyway he says "My criticism of your offer lies only in the fact that ANYONE OF US would be a fool to trade for players, today, whose futures are entirely uncertain. I can't think of any deal that I would attempt to make, today, that could not be made in August. I am of the opinion that more information is better than less, hence I consider anyone who would make an off-season trade with you, today, to be dumb."

i think he's insane... forget the value of cassell or say matt flynn who i also think would be a candidate to want to deal for now BEFORE his value goes us... are there not players who's value will go UP as well as DOWN? why not make a deal NOW where both teams have some unknowns if you trust you instincts?

[voiceofunreason]

Is this the same league you got vetoed in the other thread? It's not worth arging with him, in honesty.

[henry1jg]

lol. Thats just silly, but everyone has their own style of play.

I still can't get over the 19 round draft. Is this a keeper league?

[hamburglar]

lol. Thats just silly, but everyone has their own style of play.

I still can't get over the 19 round draft. Is this a keeper league?

well there wont be 19 rounds anymore... rosters are going up to 19 this year... everyone needs to keep at least 9 players (one complete starting roster) each team keeps as many players as they want but surrender a draft choice at top of draft for every player they keep over the required 9.

so at most 10 rounds but i find it easy to refer to rounds as their actual round number so 10th round pick is actually a first round pick.

[skip]

anyway he says "My criticism of your offer lies only in the fact that ANYONE OF US would be a fool to trade for players, today, whose futures are entirely uncertain. I can't think of any deal that I would attempt to make, today, that could not be made in August. I am of the opinion that more information is better than less, hence I consider anyone who would make an off-season trade with you, today, to be dumb."

He isn't making these comments about any trade, just players with an uncertain future... However this perspective is commonplace among bottom feeders and I assume your commish counts himself among them.

Just because a player's future is uncertain that doesn't mean you can't trade for them...but you need to do so with the mindframe that there is more at stake in doing so now rather than later. Generally speaking those players should all come at low price tags simply because the future isn't known.

[hamburglar]

what about the case of someone like a matt flynn? or last year a kevin kolb? now granted kevin kolb didnt exactly light the league on fire in 2011 but i still think he will be a very good QB in Arizona. But those players if traded for in December would be much cheaper than they would the following September. so obviously making a deal now could either increase or decrease the value of a player. i would venture a guess that it's safe to assume matt flynn will be a starting QB in 2012 for a team NOT named the packers. now if that team is say the browns maybe not as valuable... but if he was on say miami or san francisco or seattle or even denver then he's a lot more valuable...

whatever the case i think that the concept of dealing in december before the offseason as opposed to waiting until August or September has merit regardless of the individual player because even 8 months from now what do we really know? what was the perception of chris johnson in august? what was it in october? how about peyton manning? jamaal charles? rob gronkowski? victor cruz? etc etc.

[bigcsr67]

I am not sure I am getting this straight or not, but is your commish buddy not allowing trades until later, or does he just hold the view that he doesnt think trades should be done now for value purposes? If he has his own opinion that trades should only be done when situations are more appearant, then fine, let him run his team the way he wants. But if he is not allowing year round trading becuase he is the commish and doesnt like it, then that is whack.

[tidewaterjc]

He isn't making these comments about any trade, just players with an uncertain future... However this perspective is commonplace among bottom feeders and I assume your commish counts himself among them.

Just because a player's future is uncertain that doesn't mean you can't trade for them...but you need to do so with the mindframe that there is more at stake in doing so now rather than later. Generally speaking those players should all come at low price tags simply because the future isn't known.

Agree completely. It depends on your risk tolerance level. Obviously, it is less risky to make roster moves 1 week before the season starts as opposed to say February. It is these same February trades that allow you to buy low on a players you feel will break out. It doesn't always work out as planned - "Sometimes you get the elevator and sometimes you get the shaft"

[MR ROURKE]

Isn't every players future entirely uncertain. We know the now, but anything can happen and if every players future was certain in August, then everyone's rankings would match, but they don't because that's just stupid.

[tidewaterjc]

Take a look at Reggie Bush's value over the past year:

Guestimates:
Jan11 - late 2.r or early 3.r due to injuries and a frustrated owner
Apr11 - 3.r due to drafting of Ingram and resigning of PT
Aug11 - late 2.r traded to MIA, but looming DT
Dec11 - talk on the boards of a solid RB2 and worthy of a late 1.r

The opposite can be said of Jahvid Best.... look at his value Jan-Dec11

[hamburglar]

I am not sure I am getting this straight or not, but is your commish buddy not allowing trades until later, or does he just hold the view that he doesnt think trades should be done now for value purposes? If he has his own opinion that trades should only be done when situations are more appearant, then fine, let him run his team the way he wants. But if he is not allowing year round trading becuase he is the commish and doesnt like it, then that is whack.

ok trading is allowed right now... he's just saying it's stupid to do so. i agree he's entitled to his opinion and to run his team as he sees fit... but i just think he's being thick skulled and douchey and wanted some outside perspectives.

[Guppy CEO]

i would say that trading right now is highly risky, but i dont know if i would call it stupid. cassel/orton is a prime example. one of them is likely to be the starter in kc next season, but which one? it would be foolhardy to give up much for either at this point, but if you could get them cheap, it might be worth the risk.

[henry1jg]

i would say that trading right now is highly risky, but i dont know if i would call it stupid. cassel/orton is a prime example. one of them is likely to be the starter in kc next season, but which one? it would be foolhardy to give up much for either at this point, but if you could get them cheap, it might be worth the risk.

Or the flip side of that, if I had Orton or Cassell, I would be trying to get what I could for them.

[hamburglar]

exactly my point... it all came up because i offered a guy with a terrible roster and AARP eligible QB's Peyton Manning and Matt Hassleback my IR QB Matt Cassell for a "late round draft pick." no big sell or pitch just thought it might be worth it for him under the circumstances. i think its hard to imagine cassel not starting SOMEWHERE in 2012 be it KC or elsewhere... and i think it's KC... they invested too much $$$ in him and he hasn't been terrible when he was healthy.

[knuckles50]

I find it difficult to imagine how an IR Cassel could have any value at all in a keep 9 format. However, if you can recoup anything at all it should be your right and duty to do so.