Blackmon vs. Dez

[skip]

This site has massive Dez love, but I see him as a career WR2. He disappears too often for my taste even though he doesn't draw the defensive top corner (at least with Austin around he doesn't). I cannot honestly think of a game where Dez took over, I don't see elite from him.

Definitely agree that there is an incredible amount of Dez love on this site...lets just hope blackmon isn't as overrated as dez is once he enters the league. Just like Dez I'm gunna want to see blackmon produce at a high level before I rank him as a top 7 dynasty WR.

Agree here as well. I do not see elite in Dez but I do see productive where he is going to find himself somewhere in the 10-20 range for WRs. But just because he isn't elite or even top 10 that doesn't mean he isn't plenty valuable. I haven't seen enough yet of Blackmon to make a good valuation of his skills and how it will translate to the NFL so I would hang onto Dez right now given the choice between the pair.

[Chris_R]

There's alot of love here for Hakeem Nicks too. He's actually in his 3rd season, but he's only got 6 TD's with a ton more targets, and has had some crucial drops all season long. Yardage wise he's only 200 or so ahead, and really that has more to do with targets then anything. People get too carried away with trying to gauge a player early in his career and act as if that's all he'll amount too. Alot of people are excited about Dez because he's showed all the potential you need to see, some people reach it at different times.


All the guys that it took 3 years, like Roddy White, Stevie Johnson, & Sidney Rice to name a few, rarely produced in their first 2 seasons. Dez has at least showed he's a monster in the end zone and it's fairly obvious to see he's nowhere near at his peak yet. So yea, regardless of who it is, I would be excited about a guy who has shown he can score at the rate Dez can and ultimately know he's going to be alot better.


To answer the question, you take the proven talented guy in these cases most of the time if you think the proven guy can be a WR1 eventually. Otherwise you are just delaying the production in the short term and increasing your risk. If there's some injury risk, or he's a WR2/3 type that you think you can upgrade with the prospect I'd take that gamble. Here, just give me Dez.


You have a really good sense of the numbers Dez will likely do next year. Low end, 70 catches, 1000 yards, 11 TD's? I'd say that's relatively conservative, and he's about to hit his peak. Why start over with the lumps of a rookie and purely hope Blackmon not only can equal that but not be a bust as well.

[49ersFaithful80]

There's alot of love here for Hakeem Nicks too. He's actually in his 3rd season, but he's only got 6 TD's with a ton more targets, and has had some crucial drops all season long. Yardage wise he's only 200 or so ahead, and really that has more to do with targets then anything. People get too carried away with trying to gauge a player early in his career and act as if that's all he'll amount too. Alot of people are excited about Dez because he's showed all the potential you need to see, some people reach it at different times.


All the guys that it took 3 years, like Roddy White, Stevie Johnson, & Sidney Rice to name a few, rarely produced in their first 2 seasons. Dez has at least showed he's a monster in the end zone and it's fairly obvious to see he's nowhere near at his peak yet. So yea, regardless of who it is, I would be excited about a guy who has shown he can score at the rate Dez can and ultimately know he's going to be alot better.


To answer the question, you take the proven talented guy in these cases most of the time if you think the proven guy can be a WR1 eventually. Otherwise you are just delaying the production in the short term and increasing your risk. If there's some injury risk, or he's a WR2/3 type that you think you can upgrade with the prospect I'd take that gamble. Here, just give me Dez.


You have a really good sense of the numbers Dez will likely do next year. Low end, 70 catches, 1000 yards, 11 TD's? I'd say that's relatively conservative, and he's about to hit his peak. Why start over with the lumps of a rookie and purely hope Blackmon not only can equal that but not be a bust as well.

Ok well I agree that Dez has displayed the kind of abilities to get people excited, has he excited me enough to rank him in the 6-8 range like many sites have? No way. There have been countless receivers that are very talented who never translate it to production.

As far as your "conservative" projection I don't consider 1000 yards and 11 TD's as conservative what so ever. So your saying in the worst case scenario barring injury he'll be in the 5-8 range among WR's?? I don't care how much of a monster he is in the redzone, 11 TD's is a lot for anyone and it definitely isn't his low end.

[Chris_R]

There's alot of love here for Hakeem Nicks too. He's actually in his 3rd season, but he's only got 6 TD's with a ton more targets, and has had some crucial drops all season long. Yardage wise he's only 200 or so ahead, and really that has more to do with targets then anything. People get too carried away with trying to gauge a player early in his career and act as if that's all he'll amount too. Alot of people are excited about Dez because he's showed all the potential you need to see, some people reach it at different times.


All the guys that it took 3 years, like Roddy White, Stevie Johnson, & Sidney Rice to name a few, rarely produced in their first 2 seasons. Dez has at least showed he's a monster in the end zone and it's fairly obvious to see he's nowhere near at his peak yet. So yea, regardless of who it is, I would be excited about a guy who has shown he can score at the rate Dez can and ultimately know he's going to be alot better.


To answer the question, you take the proven talented guy in these cases most of the time if you think the proven guy can be a WR1 eventually. Otherwise you are just delaying the production in the short term and increasing your risk. If there's some injury risk, or he's a WR2/3 type that you think you can upgrade with the prospect I'd take that gamble. Here, just give me Dez.


You have a really good sense of the numbers Dez will likely do next year. Low end, 70 catches, 1000 yards, 11 TD's? I'd say that's relatively conservative, and he's about to hit his peak. Why start over with the lumps of a rookie and purely hope Blackmon not only can equal that but not be a bust as well.

Ok well I agree that Dez has displayed the kind of abilities to get people excited, has he excited me enough to rank him in the 6-8 range like many sites have? No way. There have been countless receivers that are very talented who never translate it to production.

As far as your "conservative" projection I don't consider 1000 yards and 11 TD's as conservative what so ever. So your saying in the worst case scenario barring injury he'll be in the 5-8 range among WR's?? I don't care how much of a monster he is in the redzone, 11 TD's is a lot for anyone and it definitely isn't his low end.

He's about to finish with 900 yards and 10 TD's this year, in his 2nd season. Why should I project him to be even worse? Going into his 3rd season/breakout season for a young WR? Besides he's ranked 20th in my ppr league, not sure how you see those numbers making him top 5-8 range.


Your saying "no way" as if he has zero production this year, none.

There have been countless receivers that are very talented who never translate it to production.

Yea, there have. Too bad Dez has already had his talent translate to production though. Look, I'm not gonna act like it's set in stone that a 2nd year WR jumps up automatically in his 3rd season, I mean just look at Jeremy Maclin whose 2nd season was eerily similiar to Dez in terms of production, and this year he dropped down some.


All that said, you've lost me. If Dez finishes this season with 900 yards and 10 TD's which he's right underneath in the first place, I really don't get how it's a big deal to project him at 1000 yards and 11 TD's in his 3rd season. He was playing with an injured quad for about a month this year where he was virtually useless.

[49ersFaithful80]

right now jordy nelson has 986 yards and 10 TD's and he's the 5th ranked WR in standard scoring leagues. So if Dez we're to put up 1000 and 11 TD's he'd likely be a top 5 fantasy WR or just outside of the it. I just don't think such a highly productive season is his "low end", people seem to forget how very good a 1000 yard 10 td season is.


While I wouldn't just assume he will put up 50 yards and a TD in week 17 he has been more productive than I previously realized. But what about the fact that Miles Austin will actually play next year? With Miles back at full strength and stealing some of his targets I see 1000 yards and 11TD's as an optimistic projection at the least

[ascherb]

I would love to have either one on my team. Dez is the odds on favorite to emerge over the next few years as Dallas' true #1.

Blackmon, if he goes to Minnesota, Carolina or Cleveland, would also be in immediate position to take on that role with those teams. And I'm not concerned about Blackmon adjusting to the NFL.

[tra151]

I couldn't read all the post, so I apologize if I repeat on anyone. Can we please just get real for a second. If you devalue Blackmon, because he hasn't done it at the nfl level, then your ridiculous, and he probably won't be on your team. The guys that will be drafted in his range will be starters days one, and that includes cbs.

Justin Blackmon is every bit the prospect that dez was, plus he is approx 1000% the man. If you want to wait to see "if Blackmon can do it at the nfl level" then you are gonna be too late.

My deal is that dez is nowhere near Blackmon. Dez flashes, then disappears in games. Probably because he is incapable of staying with the game mentally. Dez will never be the wr1 in Dallas unless Austin and Robinson leave.
Blackmon will be the 1 somewhere, we just don't know where

[joeday]

right now jordy nelson has 986 yards and 10 TD's and he's the 5th ranked WR in standard scoring leagues. So if Dez we're to put up 1000 and 11 TD's he'd likely be a top 5 fantasy WR or just outside of the it. I just don't think such a highly productive season is his "low end", people seem to forget how very good a 1000 yard 10 td season is.


While I wouldn't just assume he will put up 50 yards and a TD in week 17 he has been more productive than I previously realized. But what about the fact that Miles Austin will actually play next year? With Miles back at full strength and stealing some of his targets I see 1000 yards and 11TD's as an optimistic projection at the least

And looking at that comparison don't forget someone like Jordy is in his 4th season. Dez has put up solid numbers and I think he will continue to take upticks in his production for years to come. He needs the structure and studying of a full off season to be honest...