Valuing Players and/or picks

[FF_Magz]

In Dynasty Leagues, what are some of your tips and/or strategies in valuing players and picks.

Or maybe some reading material that may have helped you in the past.

For example I heard one piece of information that Rookie WRs usually take three years to develop.
I kind of came up with my own strategy on when to start/sit players but I think its weak.

A major problem I am having is that I undervalue or flat out don't know a players worth. I understand all leagues are different, but I made some trades that could've set me back some more time.

[Water Buffalo]

In Dynasty Leagues, what are some of your tips and/or strategies in valuing players and picks.

Or maybe some reading material that may have helped you in the past.

For example I heard one piece of information that Rookie WRs usually take three years to develop.

The problem I am having is that I undervalue or flat out don't know a players worth. I understand all leagues are different, but I made some trades that could've set me back some more time.

The bolded part is straight hogwash, and people really need to abandon it. Players develop at their own speed completely dependent on their skills, situation, injuries etc. There isn't some magical time frame where we can say, "Oh look, 2 years have passed... NOW he can be useful this year finally!" Some WRs break out in year 3, sure, but that's just to be expected just like some WRs break out year 1, 2, and 4.... The past 2 years we've now had 4 very useful fantasy wideouts already, both in years 1 and 2. Dez, TBMW, Green, and Julio. Anyone relying on generalizations like the above to make decisions in their dynasty league is setting them self up for failure.

Back more on topic, as with anything in life the only way you're going to get better at player valuation is practice. If you've got free time, lurk around these forums and absorb the info that you can. You'll get better over time, after realizing what sort of trades have worked out for you and which ones haven't. And in the mean time, you can always make a post here about a trade before offering/accepting it to get some opinions first.

[ConnSKINS26]

I think one thing that's important, just to give you something specific, is that when you draft a rookie in the rookie draft, RIGHT THEN set your expectations for that guy. For example, if you take Greg Little 5th overall at the end of preseason (late rookie draft), its with the knowledge that he's a raw WR. He's got tons of potential, but he also hasn't played for over a year, and even then only had a single year at WR, after transitioning from RB. So don't go and trade him for much less than the price YOU paid not long ago for him.

If you believed enough in a guy that you drafted him, you should know all about him. Don't dump him for cheap early just because you get caught up in the "win now" mania and become disappointed with his production early in his career--because you're out-thinking yourself. Or under-thinking, most likely. Even after his rookie season, even if its disappointing, nothing about that prospect that you believed in has changed (unless you can accurately judge that you over-valued his talent), so don't sell early unless you get good value.

Think about guys who break out years into their NFL/fantasy career. How many of them do it for the owner that actually drafted him in the annual rookie draft? And how many of them were traded for less than they were worth after half a season, a season, or even two seasons? Especially WR's. Hell, maybe they've been traded around the league more than once, even. When Jamaal Charles became a fantasy star, what was the percentage of owners benefiting, who had held him since his rookie year? Mike Wallace? These are just random examples, but you get the idea. Don't be that guy who sells Ryan Matthews for a 2012 2nd and Marshawn Lynch after a disappointing (to some) rookie season, unless you really have lost faith in his talent level.

Have patience with rookies. If you draft a guy, it should be because you are enamored with his talent. Remember that when you're looking to plug that RB2 hole in your starting lineup, and a guy like Ingram hasn't proven himself yet. Don't make the panic trade and give up on the talent you believed in.

[FF_Magz]

I appreciate the feedback... How do you interpret pick values? Is it safe to say that pick values deteriorate during the season and are sometimes/often overvalued before the league draft?

Seems that its easier to toss in a pick to finalize a deal off season more so than during the season.

[rangerdave]

The best thing to do is to look back at your league's history. Look at both previous drafts and trades involving draft picks. You will see that there are owners who put no value in draft picks, while others will hoard draft picks. Patterns as to when players should be picked will become clear.