Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
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Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
As we get closer to the NFL Draft, I've heard more and more chatter about how this year's draft class is "underrated", "really deep", and "actually good!" As somebody who owns lots of picks in this class, largely because they've come at a discount, I didn't believe any of it. This draft seemed like crap compared to the last few. As the voices defending this class grew louder, I wanted to look to see if there was something to it. Obviously, we can't evaluate this draft class for several years (2012 seemed like a stellar class even AFTER year one, RIP T-Rich), but what we can do is look at how the community at large is actually valuing these players compared to how they've valued rookies at this time of year in previous classes. I plotted each player's Pre-Draft April Rookie ADP on the X-axis and compared it to their Pre-Draft April Startup ADP on the Y axis. Here's what it looks like:
The second round is more interesting. The early part of the second round is nearly identical for all three classes, but the back half of the second round this year is much stronger than in years past.
However, the 3rd round tells a different story. In the early part of the 3rd, 2019 is a hair behind the other classes, but that quickly opens up, with the 3rd round this year being viewed as substantially weaker than in years past. Here's a representation of this by bar graph: As you can see, overall rounds 1 and 3 are considered weaker this year by a margin greater than a full startup round, while round 2 is valued at about 5 picks better than the last two years, on average.
So to answer the questions:
Is it actually a deep class? Kind of, but not really. Right now, the back half of the 2nd is viewed as strong, but the 3rd round is viewed as weak. If anything, at best it's similarly deep to the past two years, but not deeper than anything we've seen recently.
Is this class as good as recent classes? By almost any reasonable assessment, the answer right now is no. You can argue that the depth of this class is similar, but the top end talent is not nearly as highly regarded as in recent years.
What do I do with this info? Hard to say. I wouldn't necessarily buy mid-late 2nds, as there's no guarantee that this is how ADP is going to stay after the draft, but it's at least worth considering.
If anybody felt like this was helpful, I can do it again after the draft, when it'll probably be more useful.
The most obvious difference is in the first round. Keep in mind that the lower the line, the more highly valued the class is at that pick. This class is nowhere near as strong in the top half of the first as in previous years. The back half of the first is viewed similarly to 2017, but worse than last year. The second round is more interesting. The early part of the second round is nearly identical for all three classes, but the back half of the second round this year is much stronger than in years past.
However, the 3rd round tells a different story. In the early part of the 3rd, 2019 is a hair behind the other classes, but that quickly opens up, with the 3rd round this year being viewed as substantially weaker than in years past. Here's a representation of this by bar graph: As you can see, overall rounds 1 and 3 are considered weaker this year by a margin greater than a full startup round, while round 2 is valued at about 5 picks better than the last two years, on average.
So to answer the questions:
Is it actually a deep class? Kind of, but not really. Right now, the back half of the 2nd is viewed as strong, but the 3rd round is viewed as weak. If anything, at best it's similarly deep to the past two years, but not deeper than anything we've seen recently.
Is this class as good as recent classes? By almost any reasonable assessment, the answer right now is no. You can argue that the depth of this class is similar, but the top end talent is not nearly as highly regarded as in recent years.
What do I do with this info? Hard to say. I wouldn't necessarily buy mid-late 2nds, as there's no guarantee that this is how ADP is going to stay after the draft, but it's at least worth considering.
If anybody felt like this was helpful, I can do it again after the draft, when it'll probably be more useful.
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF
Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
This post was a lot more informative than I expected when clicking on the subject line.
Kudos.
Kudos.
Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
I think it's got loads of WR talent, but fairly average every where else. Great post!
Watson Goff Purdy
Pierce Swift Robinson Conner Patterson
Hill Lamb Pittman Williams Renfrow Samuel
Hockenson Knox Kmet Schultz
Pierce Swift Robinson Conner Patterson
Hill Lamb Pittman Williams Renfrow Samuel
Hockenson Knox Kmet Schultz
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
I DESPERATELY want to flip your numbers on the y-axis, lol.
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex
QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)
QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15
2 SF, 8 Flex
QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)
QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Ha, I thought about it, and I thought about changing them to 220-x as well.tresskid84 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:38 pm I DESPERATELY want to flip your numbers on the y-axis, lol.
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
It's April, everyone relax.
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Counter-point: It's April, this is the last week before your whole league is really paying attention to how much their picks are worth.
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
The draft is next Thursday. April is usally the time where picks start heating up in value, but as he's showing with his research...that's not really happening.
Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Nice work. Confirms my intuition whereby I feel better having four 2nd round picks in one of my leagues than the 1.01 in another one of my leagues.
1. 12 team 1pt PPR. Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB, 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE. Yr 7
QB: Murray, Stafford
RB: Dobbins, Sanders, Pearce
WR: Jefferson, Burks, JuJu
TE: Goedert, Everett
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
2. 12 team 1pt PPR. Start 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE. Yr 6.
QB: Jackson, Allen
RB: Akers, CEH
WR: Chase, M Brown, Pittman, M Williams
TE: Tonyan, Hooper
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
3. 12 team superflex, PPR (WR/RB/TE 1/1.25/1.5). Start 1-2 QB, 1-7 RB, WR, TE. Yr 5.
QB: Jackson, Prescott, Brady
RB: Singletary, Harris
WR: Jefferson, Adams, Burks, Evans, Lockett
TE: Hockenson
2023: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
QB: Murray, Stafford
RB: Dobbins, Sanders, Pearce
WR: Jefferson, Burks, JuJu
TE: Goedert, Everett
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
2. 12 team 1pt PPR. Start 1 QB, 2-4 RB, 3-5 WR, 1-3 TE. Yr 6.
QB: Jackson, Allen
RB: Akers, CEH
WR: Chase, M Brown, Pittman, M Williams
TE: Tonyan, Hooper
2023: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
3. 12 team superflex, PPR (WR/RB/TE 1/1.25/1.5). Start 1-2 QB, 1-7 RB, WR, TE. Yr 5.
QB: Jackson, Prescott, Brady
RB: Singletary, Harris
WR: Jefferson, Adams, Burks, Evans, Lockett
TE: Hockenson
2023: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Beautiful. This is the stuff I come here for!
12 Team Dynasty League - .25 PPR
25 player roster - Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE 1 D, 1 K
QB - Roethlisberger, Jones, Carr
RB - Mixon, Cook, Robinson, Gordon, Lindsay, Michel, Darrynton Evans, Deejay Dallas
WR - Hopkins, Boyd, Lockett, Slayton, Shepard, Cooks, Harry, Hightower, Sutton - IR
TE - Kittle, Goedert, Herndon
25 player roster - Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2-3 WR, 1-2 TE 1 D, 1 K
QB - Roethlisberger, Jones, Carr
RB - Mixon, Cook, Robinson, Gordon, Lindsay, Michel, Darrynton Evans, Deejay Dallas
WR - Hopkins, Boyd, Lockett, Slayton, Shepard, Cooks, Harry, Hightower, Sutton - IR
TE - Kittle, Goedert, Herndon
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Interesting, thanks.
Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Great post, im not into graphs and stuff like that at all, but this is just simple and informative enough for my simple mind to understand. Im feeling better about my 2.04 pick than i am about 1.03.
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Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Happy you enjoyed it.Weknownothing86 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:47 pm Great post, im not into graphs and stuff like that at all, but this is just simple and informative enough for my simple mind to understand. Im feeling better about my 2.04 pick than i am about 1.03.
COOGAN IS A CHEATER AND A THIEF
Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Nice work,
Hope to see this updated after the draft.
Hope to see this updated after the draft.
The Clock is Running and there are no Timeouts
Re: Comparing 2019's Pre-Draft Rookie Class to 2018 and 2017
Really well done, thanks for the time and effort you spent putting this together. Definitely something to keep in mind when making and receiving trade offers.
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