Does Anyone Still Believe: N'Keal Harry Edition

[Vendetta]

I think that Allen Robinson is an overly optimistic comparison; I understand that people want to be optimistic and assume the best but as we all know it often does not work out that way.

Something that really caught my attention was when some NFL scouts comped him to both Laquon Treadwell & Devin Funchess. This caught my eye as I initially thought "no way, he is a much better athlete than these guys". He is a much better athlete, on paper and at the combine. However, now that I have gone and watched some N'Keal Harry tape; I can see how those scouts came up with that comparison. That is a massive red flag. I even went and watched some Laquon Treadwell college tape to compare, the similarities are eerie.

This is also a guy in the pre-draft process; this community is anointing as the 1.01 or a contender for it; much like Laquon Treadwell. If anyone has been here for a while, I was basically arguing to death with people to NOT draft Laquon Treadwell because he would bust. I eventually gave up because people were convinced Treadwell was great and that the Vikings were a great landing spots.

N'Keal Harry plays slower than he tests. When I watch his tape, I do not see a guy who tested the way he did at the combine. He looks very raw, lacks precision and quite frankly is not very fluid. He looks kind of "clunky". Also for me, the biggest potential red flag is the fact that he cannot separate.

Is he great at contested catches at the college level? Sure. However, I think we all know the quality of college defensive coverage in comparison to the NFL. In the NFL, those balls are going to get batted down, picked and even scarier, if he cannot get open in college how is he going to get open in the NFL?

Now; if this was the NFL from 10-15 years ago, I would feel more comfortable with Harry as a prospect. However, the NFL has changed dramatically. There has been a trend toward the guys who can get open and provide a better window for their quarterbacks to throw to. Harry is the type of receiver that is a dying breed in the NFL today.

Now this is not to say that Harry cannot develop; any player can.
Once again, this community likes him for first overall - the NFL community has him around the 6th/7th WR and a late day 2 pick (3rd round).

Harry could get some value IF he lands with a quarterback who is great with tight windows and pinpoint accuracy; but most quarterbacks in the NFL today are not like that.

I'm basically planting my flag at this point.

I don't see a big ceiling here and I also see a terrifyingly low floor.

This also saddens me because he is from Toronto (I am Canadian) and I would love to see him succeed.

I'm not in a position to take Harry in any of my leagues so I haven't spent a great deal of time scouting him but this post basically confirms my initial fears regarding him but is stated much more eloquently than I'd be able to.

[Vcize]

I think that Allen Robinson is an overly optimistic comparison; I understand that people want to be optimistic and assume the best but as we all know it often does not work out that way.

Something that really caught my attention was when some NFL scouts comped him to both Laquon Treadwell & Devin Funchess. This caught my eye as I initially thought "no way, he is a much better athlete than these guys". He is a much better athlete, on paper and at the combine. However, now that I have gone and watched some N'Keal Harry tape; I can see how those scouts came up with that comparison. That is a massive red flag. I even went and watched some Laquon Treadwell college tape to compare, the similarities are eerie.

This is also a guy in the pre-draft process; this community is anointing as the 1.01 or a contender for it; much like Laquon Treadwell. If anyone has been here for a while, I was basically arguing to death with people to NOT draft Laquon Treadwell because he would bust. I eventually gave up because people were convinced Treadwell was great and that the Vikings were a great landing spots.

N'Keal Harry plays slower than he tests. When I watch his tape, I do not see a guy who tested the way he did at the combine. He looks very raw, lacks precision and quite frankly is not very fluid. He looks kind of "clunky". Also for me, the biggest potential red flag is the fact that he cannot separate.

Is he great at contested catches at the college level? Sure. However, I think we all know the quality of college defensive coverage in comparison to the NFL. In the NFL, those balls are going to get batted down, picked and even scarier, if he cannot get open in college how is he going to get open in the NFL?

Now; if this was the NFL from 10-15 years ago, I would feel more comfortable with Harry as a prospect. However, the NFL has changed dramatically. There has been a trend toward the guys who can get open and provide a better window for their quarterbacks to throw to. Harry is the type of receiver that is a dying breed in the NFL today.

Now this is not to say that Harry cannot develop; any player can.
Once again, this community likes him for first overall - the NFL community has him around the 6th/7th WR and a late day 2 pick (3rd round).

Harry could get some value IF he lands with a quarterback who is great with tight windows and pinpoint accuracy; but most quarterbacks in the NFL today are not like that.

I'm basically planting my flag at this point.

I don't see a big ceiling here and I also see a terrifyingly low floor.

This also saddens me because he is from Toronto (I am Canadian) and I would love to see him succeed.

Tape is so subjective though. When I watch plays like this one, it doesn't look "clunky" to me.

[FantasyFreak]

Harry has a very safe profile. It's unlikely he completely busts.

[Jason3123]

Young, athletic, productive, size, the man has it all.

Another interesting thing, unlike fellow classmate DK, Harry lined up all over the field, ran all kinds of routes. He is a weapon. If the tape experts think he’s not good at separation or route running well he put up pretty amazing numbers for not being any good then, so he’ll be even more incredible once he actually figures it out.

[KingsKing]

I think that Allen Robinson is an overly optimistic comparison; I understand that people want to be optimistic and assume the best but as we all know it often does not work out that way.

Something that really caught my attention was when some NFL scouts comped him to both Laquon Treadwell & Devin Funchess. This caught my eye as I initially thought "no way, he is a much better athlete than these guys". He is a much better athlete, on paper and at the combine. However, now that I have gone and watched some N'Keal Harry tape; I can see how those scouts came up with that comparison. That is a massive red flag. I even went and watched some Laquon Treadwell college tape to compare, the similarities are eerie.

This is also a guy in the pre-draft process; this community is anointing as the 1.01 or a contender for it; much like Laquon Treadwell. If anyone has been here for a while, I was basically arguing to death with people to NOT draft Laquon Treadwell because he would bust. I eventually gave up because people were convinced Treadwell was great and that the Vikings were a great landing spots.

N'Keal Harry plays slower than he tests. When I watch his tape, I do not see a guy who tested the way he did at the combine. He looks very raw, lacks precision and quite frankly is not very fluid. He looks kind of "clunky". Also for me, the biggest potential red flag is the fact that he cannot separate.

Is he great at contested catches at the college level? Sure. However, I think we all know the quality of college defensive coverage in comparison to the NFL. In the NFL, those balls are going to get batted down, picked and even scarier, if he cannot get open in college how is he going to get open in the NFL?

Now; if this was the NFL from 10-15 years ago, I would feel more comfortable with Harry as a prospect. However, the NFL has changed dramatically. There has been a trend toward the guys who can get open and provide a better window for their quarterbacks to throw to. Harry is the type of receiver that is a dying breed in the NFL today.

Now this is not to say that Harry cannot develop; any player can.
Once again, this community likes him for first overall - the NFL community has him around the 6th/7th WR and a late day 2 pick (3rd round).

Harry could get some value IF he lands with a quarterback who is great with tight windows and pinpoint accuracy; but most quarterbacks in the NFL today are not like that.

I'm basically planting my flag at this point.

I don't see a big ceiling here and I also see a terrifyingly low floor.

This also saddens me because he is from Toronto (I am Canadian) and I would love to see him succeed.

Tape is so subjective though. When I watch plays like this one, it doesn't look "clunky" to me.

Agreed 100%, its a lazy comparison. Treadwell or Funchess could never do this, looks plenty fast in a real game situation to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFzefPD ... gs=pl%2Cwn

[Factory of Sadness]

Harry is a tricky one. There are so many moments with the ball where you see fluid movement and quick twitch change of direction. Those elements don't seem to show up in his route running though. If he was as twitchy and agile in his routes as he is once he gets the ball on a screen, we'd have our no doubt 1.01. The production is tough to ignore. The early break-out is tough to ignore. I'm leaning towards the idea that the athleticism which was measured at the Combine and shows up repeatedly on tape when he has the ball, will start to emerge in his route running. Watch him return kicks or blaze away from DBs once he has the ball in his hands and it's tough to imagine he won't be able to separate on deeper routes. Everyone is a gamble in the draft- especially at WR. I'm going to happily take Harry early.

[wickerkat1212]

This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.

[Patsfan86]

This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.

Off topic but how did you get Zeke for that? Thats a steal.

[MrUbuto]

This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.

Off topic but how did you get Zeke for that? Thats a steal.

Yea wtf

[stoneghost28]

The problem with film as usual is it’s incredibly subjective. Everyone sees different things. What isn’t subjective is Harry’s dominant college production, elite breakout age, and plus athleticism to go along with it. Something Treadwell didn’t have. Funchess actually did have some strong metrics as well but also ran a 4.7 40 which is atrocious. Harry’s athleticism also shows on the field, go watch his punt return for a TD. Funchess and Treadwell could never do that.

Harry could easily bust as most rookies do, but he is not Treadwell and Funchess. He is much more aligned with ARob, Dez, Juju types.

I think the problem with film is that everyone doesn't understand what they're actually watching and that people just don't watch it. Dominator and Breakout age are notable metrics, but they're not things that can be directly controlled by a WR. It's squarely dependent on what your QB does or the offense the coaching staff builds. Some players build misleading market shares because they're in low volume offenses that target them a lot. Some players don't build good ones because they're in high volume offenses that spread the ball a lot.

As is the case with everything, context is crucial in understanding a prospect.

You know there's like three WR's in the top 40-45 in ADP who have a sub 50th percentile breakout age, and if you look at the bulk of the top 25 or so, nearly all of them have breakout ages in the 70th to 90th+ percentile? Some metrics just seem to have an uncanny connection to future success. Seems like breakout age tied to dominator/market share are damn helpful in finding markers associated w/success. Honestly I trust these kinds of things about 1000x more than tape. That being said, sometimes tape nails a guy, and the combine really misses on a guy (See Kareem Hunt). Wish I could figure out a happy middle ground, but I know which way I prefer to err.

[wickerkat1212]

This is why I traded away my 1.01/1.02 for Zeke. Too much risk at the top with Harry, Metcalf, Jacobs, etc. I'm sure somebody will emerge, but hell, it could be somebody 1.05 or lower. I'll take the proven player.

Off topic but how did you get Zeke for that? Thats a steal.

Was a little more than those picks. Also Trubisky for Mariota, and Hurst for Jonnu. I know Mariota isn't much, but from what I've seen of Trubisky, I don't see him being anything elite, at this point. Hurst is still up in the air, but he's still a bit of flier, low cost IMO. But yeah, I'll pay that. I still have Big Ben and Allen, as well as Burton, so my depth is hurting a bit, but it's hard to get a top five RB. My league thought I got robbed. Guess they like this draft more than I do.

[ehasz15]

Go watch Nkeal Harrys top 10 plays on youtube
some of those plays Treadwell couldn't dream of making....Hes much more athletic and His change of Direction is on point....Treadwell Comp is lazy and awful....not saying Harry is going to be a WR1 in the NFL but he will be a pretty good 2, in a few years
I could be a little biased because i live in AZ and go to every ASU game but.....
i wasn't on the Jalen Strong Hype train i wanted him to succeed, but i knew he wasn't athletic enough and his route running was poor unlike Harry

[Ice]

Go watch Nkeal Harrys top 10 plays on youtube
some of those plays Treadwell couldn't dream of making....Hes much more athletic and His change of Direction is on point....Treadwell Comp is lazy and awful....not saying Harry is going to be a WR1 in the NFL but he will be a pretty good 2, in a few years
I could be a little biased because i live in AZ and go to every ASU game but.....
i wasn't on the Jalen Strong Hype train i wanted him to succeed, but i knew he wasn't athletic enough and his route running was poor unlike Harry

The problem is in round 1 a WR2 projection isn't a good enough expectation. I had the same concerns with Allen Robinson when he came out. Quite a bit to like but extremely tight coverage in college is a concern. Harry will be a decent pro IMO but not on my teams. Speed in pads is highly suspect at this point. He could develop but today he struggles against press coverage.

He does make really good contested catches and is a beast after contact.

[ebsteelers]

looking forward to him going first pick of round 2 to the cardinals... and him and kirk just eating for the next decade once larry legend retires

[Blueboy]

I was a bit too optimistic in my first round of tape review for Harry, this thread inspired me to take pause in my second go around. So thanks Phaded.

It's tough to confidently rank him pre-Draft. As others have said, landing spot will be especially key for Harry... but if he goes to a coaching staff I trust, regardless of QB situation, he'll be the 1.01 on my board.