Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

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tresskid84
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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby tresskid84 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:30 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:12 pm
alewilliam789 wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:02 pm I would never incest in a player who is under 170 pounds
:shock:
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2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Shcritters » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:50 pm

All I have to say is that the back half of this year’s 1st round is one of the best I’ve seen in a while. Usually things fall off around 1.05-1.06, but this year with the 1.10 in a TE premium league is not a bad place to be.
Gopher Two
PPR SF, WR & TE Premium (WR 1.2 PPR , TE 1.5 PPR), 10 total starters, 1 QB, 1SF, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex
QB: Mahomes, Prescott, Mayfield
RB: Hall, Chubb, Connor, Pacheco, Mattison, DCook, Perine
WR: Tyreek, AJ Brown, JJeudy, CSutton, Flowers, MThomas, Slayton, DParker, CDavis, DMims
TE: DSchultz, Musgrave, MGesicki, McBride, Kraft, Dissly
2024: 1.02, 2.02
2022 and 2023 League Champ

SafeLeague #1 (SF, 2.0 PPR TE Prem). 10 total starters 1 QB, 1SF (QB/TE/RB/WR), 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex
QB: Purdy, Levis, DTR
RB: Pacheco + scrubs
WR: Downs, MMims, EMoore, Jeudy, MWilson + scrubs
TE: Hock, Kincaid, Pitts, Mayer + scrubs
2024: 1.01, 1.05, 1.10, 1.12, 2.01, 2.02

SafeLeague #2
QB: Purdy, Richardson, Hooker, Willis
RB: Hull, Jackson, Vaughn, Wilson
WR: Mingo, MMims, Toney, Skyy, Iosivas
TE: LaPorta, Kincaid, McBride, Mayer, Musgrave, Schoonmaker (and a bunch more 2nd stringers)
2024: 1.01, 1.05, 1.06, 1.07, 1.09, 1.10, 1.12, 2.01

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:38 pm

Shcritters wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:50 pm All I have to say is that the back half of this year’s 1st round is one of the best I’ve seen in a while. Usually things fall off around 1.05-1.06, but this year with the 1.10 in a TE premium league is not a bad place to be.
Yup, back half looks more solid than any year that I've seen.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mild » Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:56 pm

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:33 am
mild wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:06 am
Factory of Sadness wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:51 am If Marquise is the first or second WR drafted, isn't the bigger risk in ignoring that?
Potentially, but since when has round selection correlated to success for WR's?
:shock:
Show me the lie, DeLorean... or just post more emojis without engaging the thought. :think:

(Btw I'm a fan of your RB report)

https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2019/ ... sses-2017/

I highly recommend diving in on this series. The crux of it is, though: always believe in the talent evaluation and what the numbers are telling you over the draft position. Just ask people who went Juju over Corey Davis, or Michael Thomas over Corey Coleman.

Tacking on to a previous poster - if it's the difference between Marquise Brown being taken at 17 by the Giants, or AJ Brown or Kelvin Harmon going in the 2nd to, say, the Seahawks or the Steelers... I wouldn't pump Brown up just because his round selection is higher. That just seems sensical to me, no?

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:05 pm

That is one of the silliest posts I have read in a long time and is nothing more than hindsight.

There were plenty of people who thought Davis & Coleman were/are plenty talented.

The fact is - NFL players bust and there is no perfect science; draft position is the single strongest indicator of success odds. Sure, there are exceptions but there are exceptions to every "rule" when it comes to evaluating.

Assuming you understand the concept of odds.
mild wrote:Tacking on to a previous poster - if it's the difference between Marquise Brown being taken at 17 by the Giants, or AJ Brown or Kelvin Harmon going in the 2nd to, say, the Seahawks or the Steelers... I wouldn't pump Brown up just because his round selection is higher. That just seems sensical to me, no?
Then again - you are blatantly confusing talent with situation so who knows.

And since you are not backing it up with any sort of numbers; just two flaky examples.
The wider the sample size, the better. Yes, this is 2005-2014 but it is still very relevant.
Of 317 selected, only 74 have become starters for at least half their careers.
The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.
If you are ranking the rounds by numbers drafted, you would go 7th, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 1st and 5th.
The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%.
On average, four WRs are taken in the first round and then you see an average of five per round for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th rounds.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby mild » Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:01 pm

Phaded wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:05 pm That is one of the silliest posts I have read in a long time and is nothing more than hindsight.
I just disagree with the concept that being selected in the 1st is in any way more of a signifier for success than being selected in the 2nd or 3rd.
All that means to me is that the player carries more "draft capital" to the team that selected them. Still doesn't mean that the team made the correct evaluation, or that the team situation will be good...

With all that said I love Marquise Brown. I just wanted to throw some cold water on the idea that NFL evaluators are necessarily "more right" just because they're the ones sitting in the GM seat. They still make just as many mistakes. That's all. Carry on.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:10 pm

You disagree with facts that have statistical backing?
Well, that is quite a noble concept of you.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby smbkrypt24 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:41 pm

Phaded wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:05 pm That is one of the silliest posts I have read in a long time and is nothing more than hindsight.

There were plenty of people who thought Davis & Coleman were/are plenty talented.

The fact is - NFL players bust and there is no perfect science; draft position is the single strongest indicator of success odds. Sure, there are exceptions but there are exceptions to every "rule" when it comes to evaluating.

Assuming you understand the concept of odds.
mild wrote:Tacking on to a previous poster - if it's the difference between Marquise Brown being taken at 17 by the Giants, or AJ Brown or Kelvin Harmon going in the 2nd to, say, the Seahawks or the Steelers... I wouldn't pump Brown up just because his round selection is higher. That just seems sensical to me, no?
Then again - you are blatantly confusing talent with situation so who knows.

And since you are not backing it up with any sort of numbers; just two flaky examples.
The wider the sample size, the better. Yes, this is 2005-2014 but it is still very relevant.

Of 317 selected, only 74 have become starters for at least half their careers.
The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%.
The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate.
If you are ranking the rounds by numbers drafted, you would go 7th, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 1st and 5th.
The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%.
On average, four WRs are taken in the first round and then you see an average of five per round for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th rounds.
This is awesome information. Is there any research on RBs, TEs, or QBs success rate by rounds?
12 Team PPR Dynasty. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 D, 21 roster spots.

2013 Startup
Team 1- 3rd in 2023
QB: Herbert, B. Purdy, Fields
RB: Bijan, Barkley, Akers, Dobbins
WR: T. Hill, AJB, D. Johnson, JSN, Doubs, Meyers, Thomas, Toney
TE: Andrews, Likely, Dulcich

2024: 1.04, 1.09, 2.02
2025: 1, 2, 3

2019 Startup
Team 2- 4th in 2023
QB: Murray, Cousins, Wilson
RB: Bijan, Kamara, Mixon, Dobbins, Rodriguez
WR: Chase, G. Wilson, D. Adams, Di. Johnson, M. Wilson, W. Robinson, Toney
TE: McBride, Pitts, Kmet, Likely

2024: 1.01, 1.06, 1.08, 1.11, 2.09
2025: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3

2021 Startup
Team 3- 11th in 2023
QB: Goff, Watson, Cousins, Levis, Rodgers, Young
RB: Gibbs, Pacheco, Dobbins
WR: Chase, J. Jefferson, JSN, Palmer, Mooney, Tillman
TE: Schultz, Pitts, Likely, Okonkwo

2024: 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 2.03, 2.06, 2.07, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08
2025: 1, 2, 3

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:49 pm

mild wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:56 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:33 am
mild wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:06 am

Potentially, but since when has round selection correlated to success for WR's?
:shock:
Show me the lie, DeLorean... or just post more emojis without engaging the thought. :think:
I thought everyone knew draft round correlated with NFL success. I've seen varies "studies" over the years that say as much. You're the one with the dissenting opinion. Feel free to post something that shows otherwise.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Phaded » Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:53 pm

smbkrypt24 wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:41 pmThis is awesome information. Is there any research on RBs, TEs, or QBs success rate by rounds?
If you click on the link slightly above it - it actually breaks down numerous positions in the same way: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB.

If you want the full details of the criteria, I suggest going to the link (it is very interesting; regardless if you are interested in it for fantasy or just real life); however to summarize the first four rounds:

QB: 1st - 63%, 2nd - 27%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 8%
RB: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 25%, 3rd - 16%, 4th - 11%
TE: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby smbkrypt24 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:00 pm

Phaded wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:53 pm
smbkrypt24 wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:41 pmThis is awesome information. Is there any research on RBs, TEs, or QBs success rate by rounds?
If you click on the link slightly above it - it actually breaks down numerous positions in the same way: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB.

If you want the full details of the criteria, I suggest going to the link (it is very interesting; regardless if you are interested in it for fantasy or just real life); however to summarize the first four rounds:

QB: 1st - 63%, 2nd - 27%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 8%
RB: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 25%, 3rd - 16%, 4th - 11%
TE: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%
I apologize I didn't know you provided a link to your information. Thank you!
12 Team PPR Dynasty. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 D, 21 roster spots.

2013 Startup
Team 1- 3rd in 2023
QB: Herbert, B. Purdy, Fields
RB: Bijan, Barkley, Akers, Dobbins
WR: T. Hill, AJB, D. Johnson, JSN, Doubs, Meyers, Thomas, Toney
TE: Andrews, Likely, Dulcich

2024: 1.04, 1.09, 2.02
2025: 1, 2, 3

2019 Startup
Team 2- 4th in 2023
QB: Murray, Cousins, Wilson
RB: Bijan, Kamara, Mixon, Dobbins, Rodriguez
WR: Chase, G. Wilson, D. Adams, Di. Johnson, M. Wilson, W. Robinson, Toney
TE: McBride, Pitts, Kmet, Likely

2024: 1.01, 1.06, 1.08, 1.11, 2.09
2025: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3

2021 Startup
Team 3- 11th in 2023
QB: Goff, Watson, Cousins, Levis, Rodgers, Young
RB: Gibbs, Pacheco, Dobbins
WR: Chase, J. Jefferson, JSN, Palmer, Mooney, Tillman
TE: Schultz, Pitts, Likely, Okonkwo

2024: 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 2.03, 2.06, 2.07, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08
2025: 1, 2, 3

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby smbkrypt24 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:05 pm

Phaded wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:53 pm
smbkrypt24 wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:41 pmThis is awesome information. Is there any research on RBs, TEs, or QBs success rate by rounds?
If you click on the link slightly above it - it actually breaks down numerous positions in the same way: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB, DB.

If you want the full details of the criteria, I suggest going to the link (it is very interesting; regardless if you are interested in it for fantasy or just real life); however to summarize the first four rounds:

QB: 1st - 63%, 2nd - 27%, 3rd - 17%, 4th - 8%
RB: 1st - 58%, 2nd - 25%, 3rd - 16%, 4th - 11%
TE: 1st - 67%, 2nd - 50%, 3rd - 39%, 4th - 33%
Two observations I see right off the bat. I constantly see that the RB is devalued in todays NFL. With this data it suggests you need to be first round RB to succeed. The drop-off is significant to 2nd round.
The other thing I was surprised at was the large percentage of QBs successful in first round. There are so many reaches for QBs in first round due to the position being so important I would expect that number to be lower.
12 Team PPR Dynasty. Start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 D, 21 roster spots.

2013 Startup
Team 1- 3rd in 2023
QB: Herbert, B. Purdy, Fields
RB: Bijan, Barkley, Akers, Dobbins
WR: T. Hill, AJB, D. Johnson, JSN, Doubs, Meyers, Thomas, Toney
TE: Andrews, Likely, Dulcich

2024: 1.04, 1.09, 2.02
2025: 1, 2, 3

2019 Startup
Team 2- 4th in 2023
QB: Murray, Cousins, Wilson
RB: Bijan, Kamara, Mixon, Dobbins, Rodriguez
WR: Chase, G. Wilson, D. Adams, Di. Johnson, M. Wilson, W. Robinson, Toney
TE: McBride, Pitts, Kmet, Likely

2024: 1.01, 1.06, 1.08, 1.11, 2.09
2025: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3

2021 Startup
Team 3- 11th in 2023
QB: Goff, Watson, Cousins, Levis, Rodgers, Young
RB: Gibbs, Pacheco, Dobbins
WR: Chase, J. Jefferson, JSN, Palmer, Mooney, Tillman
TE: Schultz, Pitts, Likely, Okonkwo

2024: 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 2.03, 2.06, 2.07, 2.10, 3.03, 3.06, 3.08
2025: 1, 2, 3

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:32 pm

These figures parallel the drop off for dynasty picks, generally speaking. Much higher success rate with early 1st picks compared to mids and late 1sts, and far higher than 2nd round and below.

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Thu Apr 11, 2019 6:36 pm

mild wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:01 pm
Phaded wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:05 pm That is one of the silliest posts I have read in a long time and is nothing more than hindsight.
I just disagree with the concept that being selected in the 1st is in any way more of a signifier for success than being selected in the 2nd or 3rd.
Timing is everything, including in DLF posts. Had you waited just a few more minutes, you'd have seen the data provided on NFL Draft hit rates and you'd probably not have stuck your foot in your mouth the way you did.

Lol

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Re: Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

Postby alewilliam789 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:27 am

tresskid84 wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:30 pm
Dynasty DeLorean wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:12 pm
alewilliam789 wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:02 pm I would never incest in a player who is under 170 pounds
:shock:
Image
:lol: :lol: :lol: Literally didn’t even see that. Sorry y’all I post from an Iphone so sometimes stuff can get jumbled. Just so happens v is next to c on my keyboard :wtf:
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