Marquise Brown is the best value in the draft

[Cameron Giles]

Heard this today, and the same question I was beginning to ask was actually asked, (in regards to Isabella) so I'm going to voice it. Only 1 WR in NFL history has weighed under 170 pounds and averaged more than 40 yards in his career (Anthony Carter). Interesting stat.

Brown is an outlier, plain and simple, so my argument is that if you're betting on the outlier in the first round, especially top half, it's just not good value. Amateur tape analysis aside, there is no quantifiable measurement on Brown's speed. Is he faster than Andy Isabella? I doubt it, we have his 40 time, which was also disputed that it might be in the 4.2's because of a problem with the laser. Hollywood Brown is a better prospect based on tape, but Isabella produced better numbers and is arguably faster, in fact, probably is. If I could get a guy like him in the mid 2nd as apposed to Brown in the early/mid first, I find that much better value.

Marquise Brown may hit in the NFL, but the odds say he won't. I actually hope he does, but I won't be investing an early pick on him.

Brown is an outlier in weight, but not skillset. Considering weight is not a permanent number, it's reasonable to not use it as a threshold for probability at a position where it doesn't matter a ton. If he jumps to 180, then what? Brown clearly shows elite speed on tape by the cushions he's given and the multiple highlights of home run speed. Not knowing the exact number seems like a manufactured reason to avoid him.

He's really, really good at football.

[FantasyFreak]

Heard this today, and the same question I was beginning to ask was actually asked, (in regards to Isabella) so I'm going to voice it. Only 1 WR in NFL history has weighed under 170 pounds and averaged more than 40 yards in his career (Anthony Carter). Interesting stat.

Brown is an outlier, plain and simple, so my argument is that if you're betting on the outlier in the first round, especially top half, it's just not good value. Amateur tape analysis aside, there is no quantifiable measurement on Brown's speed. Is he faster than Andy Isabella? I doubt it, we have his 40 time, which was also disputed that it might be in the 4.2's because of a problem with the laser. Hollywood Brown is a better prospect based on tape, but Isabella produced better numbers and is arguably faster, in fact, probably is. If I could get a guy like him in the mid 2nd as apposed to Brown in the early/mid first, I find that much better value.

Marquise Brown may hit in the NFL, but the odds say he won't. I actually hope he does, but I won't be investing an early pick on him.

Brown is an outlier in weight, but not skillset. Considering weight is not a permanent number, it's reasonable to not use it as a threshold for probability at a position where it doesn't matter a ton. If he jumps to 180, then what? Brown clearly shows elite speed on tape by the cushions he's given and the multiple highlights of home run speed. Not knowing the exact number seems like a manufactured reason to avoid him.

He's really, really good at football.

If he can play that way at 180, it would change things. Can he? Seems like he plays closer to 160 than 180. 166 at the combine means he's playing at less. Again, it's a historical reference. Weight can go both ways. Maybe he's already pretty much maxed out. He's good at football, but so are a lot of smaller players that can't make the leap. He's outlier in weight, but it's a massive body of evidence (get it? LOL),, and I hope he can break that mold, but I don't consider that good "value" in the early to mid first. If I have to draft him and he's weighing 166 pounds in the rookie draft, I'm not doing it that early. Had he come into the combine over 170 pounds, I'd be more optimistic, but the fact he didn't test and came in that light suggests he's not even a legit 166.

If someone takes him in the first and a guy like AJ Brown goes in the 2nd, who is also really good at football (at 226 pounds), and they are both sitting there come rookie draft time, I'm not even hesitating. I just don't see "value" in an outlier if we are talking about an early rookie pick, which is the premise of the thread.

[Cameron Giles]

Heard this today, and the same question I was beginning to ask was actually asked, (in regards to Isabella) so I'm going to voice it. Only 1 WR in NFL history has weighed under 170 pounds and averaged more than 40 yards in his career (Anthony Carter). Interesting stat.

Brown is an outlier, plain and simple, so my argument is that if you're betting on the outlier in the first round, especially top half, it's just not good value. Amateur tape analysis aside, there is no quantifiable measurement on Brown's speed. Is he faster than Andy Isabella? I doubt it, we have his 40 time, which was also disputed that it might be in the 4.2's because of a problem with the laser. Hollywood Brown is a better prospect based on tape, but Isabella produced better numbers and is arguably faster, in fact, probably is. If I could get a guy like him in the mid 2nd as apposed to Brown in the early/mid first, I find that much better value.

Marquise Brown may hit in the NFL, but the odds say he won't. I actually hope he does, but I won't be investing an early pick on him.

Brown is an outlier in weight, but not skillset. Considering weight is not a permanent number, it's reasonable to not use it as a threshold for probability at a position where it doesn't matter a ton. If he jumps to 180, then what? Brown clearly shows elite speed on tape by the cushions he's given and the multiple highlights of home run speed. Not knowing the exact number seems like a manufactured reason to avoid him.

He's really, really good at football.

If he can play that way at 180, it would change things. Can he? Seems like he plays closer to 160 than 180. 166 at the combine means he's playing at less. Again, it's a historical reference. Weight can go both ways. Maybe he's already pretty much maxed out. He's good at football, but so are a lot of smaller players that can't make the leap. He's outlier in weight, but it's a massive body of evidence (get it? LOL),, and I hope he can break that mold, but I don't consider that good "value" in the early to mid first. If I have to draft him and he's weighing 166 pounds in the rookie draft, I'm not doing it that early. Had he come into the combine over 170 pounds, I'd be more optimistic, but the fact he didn't test and came in that light suggests he's not even a legit 166.

If someone takes him in the first and a guy like AJ Brown goes in the 2nd, who is also really good at football (at 226 pounds), and they are both sitting there come rookie draft time, I'm not even hesitating. I just don't see "value" in an outlier if we are talking about an early rookie pick, which is the premise of the thread.

At the time of this thread, Brown was easily the best value. He's likely going to be drafted first round and arguably has the best tape of any receiver in this class. Yet, he was going 2.04 in ADP. But, we can forget value at this point. Brown is one of the top prospects in this class and it's potentially a mistake to not treat him as such. You're focusing too much on a variable that can change very easily. None of us are even remotely educated enough on his body to assume that he's a special case where he can't add weight like a normal human being. So, why is it a factor?

Brown checks an absurd amount of boxes as a receiver to be concerned about a variable that isn't static.

[FantasyFreak]

Brown is an outlier in weight, but not skillset. Considering weight is not a permanent number, it's reasonable to not use it as a threshold for probability at a position where it doesn't matter a ton. If he jumps to 180, then what? Brown clearly shows elite speed on tape by the cushions he's given and the multiple highlights of home run speed. Not knowing the exact number seems like a manufactured reason to avoid him.

He's really, really good at football.

If he can play that way at 180, it would change things. Can he? Seems like he plays closer to 160 than 180. 166 at the combine means he's playing at less. Again, it's a historical reference. Weight can go both ways. Maybe he's already pretty much maxed out. He's good at football, but so are a lot of smaller players that can't make the leap. He's outlier in weight, but it's a massive body of evidence (get it? LOL),, and I hope he can break that mold, but I don't consider that good "value" in the early to mid first. If I have to draft him and he's weighing 166 pounds in the rookie draft, I'm not doing it that early. Had he come into the combine over 170 pounds, I'd be more optimistic, but the fact he didn't test and came in that light suggests he's not even a legit 166.

If someone takes him in the first and a guy like AJ Brown goes in the 2nd, who is also really good at football (at 226 pounds), and they are both sitting there come rookie draft time, I'm not even hesitating. I just don't see "value" in an outlier if we are talking about an early rookie pick, which is the premise of the thread.

At the time of this thread, Brown was easily the best value. He's likely going to be drafted first round and arguably has the best tape of any receiver in this class. Yet, he was going 2.04 in ADP. But, we can forget value at this point. Brown is one of the top prospects in this class. You're focusing too much on a variable that can change very easily. None of us are even remotely educated enough on his body to assume that he's a special case where he can't add weight. So, why is it a factor?

Brown checks an absurd amount of boxes as a receiver to be concerned about a variable that isn't static.

I agree that's better value, but his weight IS static, to a point. He can't put on 30 pounds and play the way he does. His weight is a major issue, for me. Some others may not see it that way, but I feel he's going to have a tougher time playing at that weight in the NFL for a variety of reasons.

[Cameron Giles]

I agree that's better value, but his weight IS static, to a point. He can't put on 30 pounds and play the way he does. His weight is a major issue, for me. Some others may not see it that way, but I feel he's going to have a tougher time playing at that weight in the NFL for a variety of reasons.

It's not static to any point unless a player maintains the same weight for the rest of his career. There is nothing to base an opinion that Brown is some special case of a player who is unable to gain weight throughout his career. It's a hunch with nothing to back up. If that's how we're looking at players, then we could say some wild stuff.

And Brown doesn't need to gain 30 pounds. If Brown was trying to play RB, then this discussion about weight would be a lot more significant. But, how many times have you watched T.Y. Hilton or Brandin Cooks and said "Wow, good thing he's 185 pounds otherwise that play wouldn't be possible." WR is not a physically-demanding position anymore.

So, if we're going back to the first post for the criticism of drafting Brown:

1. The Lisfranc Injury is going to ruin his career: Multiple reports state that his foot is in great condition and it's "not an issue."

2. He's 166 pounds: Again, not a static variable and like all humans, can change very quickly depending on the strength/diet program you get on.

Are people really going to let those two reasons be why they pass on an obviously good WR to draft 4th round RBs and WR's who aren't as good? It's just backwards.

[Phaded]

Metcalf is just as much an outlier as Brown; but in a different way.

Just like Murray is an outlier as well..

Man, it is going to be interesting how this all pans out.

[Cameron Giles]

Daniel Jeremiah's latest first round mock has no RBs, 2 TE's (Hock, Fant) and 1 WR: Marquise Brown.

[FantasyFreak]

Metcalf is just as much an outlier as Brown; but in a different way.

Just like Murray is an outlier as well..

Man, it is going to be interesting how this all pans out.

Yep. I won't be touching any of them early. If they fall sure, but I don't like spending the required capital on players like this, personally.

[FantasyFreak]

I agree that's better value, but his weight IS static, to a point. He can't put on 30 pounds and play the way he does. His weight is a major issue, for me. Some others may not see it that way, but I feel he's going to have a tougher time playing at that weight in the NFL for a variety of reasons.

It's not static to any point unless a player maintains the same weight for the rest of his career. There is nothing to base an opinion that Brown is some special case of a player who is unable to gain weight throughout his career. It's a hunch with nothing to back up. If that's how we're looking at players, then we could say some wild stuff.

And Brown doesn't need to gain 30 pounds. If Brown was trying to play RB, then this discussion about weight would be a lot more significant. But, how many times have you watched T.Y. Hilton or Brandin Cooks and said "Wow, good thing he's 185 pounds otherwise that play wouldn't be possible." WR is not a physically-demanding position anymore.

So, if we're going back to the first post for the criticism of drafting Brown:

1. The Lisfranc Injury is going to ruin his career: Multiple reports state that his foot is in great condition and it's "not an issue."

2. He's 166 pounds: Again, not a static variable and like all humans, can change very quickly depending on the strength/diet program you get on.

Are people really going to let those two reasons be why they pass on an obviously good WR to draft 4th round RBs and WR's who aren't as good? It's just backwards.

Brown arrived as OSU in the 140's, so I don't really know how much more weight his frame can handle. I'm not suggesting taking a 4th round RB over him, but I am suggesting taking a guy like AJ Brown over him. In order to get Marquise, chances are it will take an early first when all is said and done, and there are a few players with good profiles, or better profiles and better size I'd rather take. Again, personal choice, but he is definitely not my WR1.

[jenkins.math]

Metcalf is just as much an outlier as Brown; but in a different way.

Just like Murray is an outlier as well..

Man, it is going to be interesting how this all pans out.

Yep. I won't be touching any of them early. If they fall sure, but I don't like spending the required capital on players like this, personally.

Which is a big reason a lot of people moved off the 2019 draft entirely. So much unknown with the perceived top guys.

The problem now is that if Hollywood is drafted as one of the first 3 WRs, he isn't going in round 2 of the rookie drafts anymore unless he goes to Baltimore or an equally terrible landing spot. Even then I don't think he would last that long.

2019 was the ideal year to move an early pick for a proven guy. You're almost better off picking at 1.08 or so because then you're taking the guy that falls. The decision almost gets made for you.

[ArrylT]

He was not one of the first 3 Rookie WRs off the board in any of my rookie drafts or startups so far.

[Ice]

He was not one of the first 3 Rookie WRs off the board in any of my rookie drafts or startups so far.

That makes sense prior to the NFL Draft.

Regarding his size; He is built almost exactly like his cousin Antonio. Both 5'10. M Brown is about 15 lbs lighter today. Within a few years he should add 10-15 lbs of muscle.

Of course Antonio's head probably weighs a lot more!

[Cameron Giles]

He was not one of the first 3 Rookie WRs off the board in any of my rookie drafts or startups so far.

Still somehow going in the 2nd round of early rookie drafts despite being having more 1st round buzz than any RB or WR.

It's insane.

NFL: Marquise Brown is a 1st round WR.
Fantasy: No he's not, he's 166 pounds.
NFL: He's probably the best WR in this class.
Fantasy: I'm going to take Rodney Anderson ahead of him.
NFL: Bad idea. He runs great routes and gets open better than anyone in this class.
Fantasy: He had LisFranc surgery!!!
NFL: His foot is in great condition and passed our medicals.
Fantasy: He's a 2nd round rookie pick!!!

[Ice]

He was not one of the first 3 Rookie WRs off the board in any of my rookie drafts or startups so far.

Still somehow going in the 2nd round of early rookie drafts despite being having more 1st round buzz than any RB or WR.

It's insane.

NFL: Marquise Brown is a 1st round WR.
Fantasy: No he's not, he's 166 pounds.
NFL: He's probably the best WR in this class.
Fantasy: I'm going to take Rodney Anderson ahead of him.
NFL: Bad idea. He runs great routes and gets open better than anyone in this class.
Fantasy: He had LisFranc surgery!!!
NFL: His foot is in great condition and passed our medicals.
Fantasy: He's a 2nd round rookie pick!!!

[ArrylT]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

What do you feel Marquise Browns floor is? Assuming he is drafted in the first as expected to a location that you feel is beneficial day one.