As we near draft time, I have an important reminder..

[ArrylT]

I assume you're referring to the post Kurt Warner period.

[M-Dub]

This is a very tentative opinion, rather than a disagreement. I think I'd see opportunity as more important for RBs and talent as more important for WRs. I suspect the NFL is starting to show through free agency and the draft that it, broadly, feels the same way.

Personally I think a lot of teams make a mistake in seeing RB production as truly replaceable. Yes, you can get a guy who will get you 3.5 yards when the expensive back will get you 4 and that is a saving. Every 3rd down converted is essentially a turnover of possession avoided though. I would pay up for a back who is elite in the passing game and /or a guy who can keep me on the field by making a play that others couldn't.

Because there is a sausage factory at RB though, if you have a good line and a good scheme and you do a good but not great job, no-one is looking to replace you. Conversely, if you fail behind a bad line on your first contract, why would anyone sign you even if you are talented when they can get a rookie in on peanuts?

At WR, though a bad scheme or a bad QB can depress your value in the short-term, I think the All-22 gives a pretty clear view of whether you can beat press, find holes in zones, shake man coverage and catch the ball.

In short, I think because what an RB does - rather than just the success he does or doesn't have - is contextual and what a WR does is easier to observe, that talent is more likely to be observed in the end at WR than RB.

Great post.

I think there are two other factors that make situation more important for RBs: positional scarcity and average career arc.

WRs just naturally get more opportunity than RBs due to there being more of them on the field at any given time. You don’t have to be your team’s established alpha WR in order to get enough snaps/targets to be fantasy relevant. Whatever arbitrary PPG threshold you choose to define fantasy relevance, there will be more WRs that reach it than RBs. Guys like John Kelly and Chase Edmonds could very well be highly talented RBs, but as long as they’re stuck behind Gurley and DJ, they’re gonna need an injury to a stud to even have a chance to prove their talent.

RBs also have earlier and shorter career arcs. A large majority of their fantasy points will be scored while they’re on their rookie contracts, so if there isn’t an immediate and clear path to opportunity, you’re basically betting all your chips on the coaching staff sharing your boundless enthusiasm for that player. This sort of ties in with what FoS was saying about replaceability too. If you don’t at least flash early in your career as an RB, it’s pretty much over. You just don’t see those Julian Edelman/Adam Thielen type of late breakouts at the RB position nearly as often.

[Space Cowboy]

The opposite is true too: Don't overdraft a player based on a perceived good landing situation. See Sankey, Bishop.

In my earlier dynasty days I chased two mediocre RBs who were in line for big time carries - Donald Brown on a loaded offense and Montario Hardesty on a Browns team that was projected to give him 300 carries. YUCK x 2.

CBS lets me go back and check prior year draft results in my league. Checking...
2009: Brown goes at 1.04
2010: Hardesty goes at 1.13

So you are not alone, lol. Just googled them both...Brown stuck around in the NFL for a while but Hardesty fell off after 2 years. You recall what happened to him? Or...was he just not good?

Tore his ACL in training camp and never did much of anything after that.

[ArrylT]

Finals weeks before the NFL Draft and the debate(s) continue to "rage" over many of the prospects. Just bumping this as

(a) a reminder

(b) to include some past thoughts on the last WR class that was as hotly contested as this one (imho) - the 2014 class.

So before you declare that you are 100% against DK Metcalf, or Marquise Brown, or N'Keal Harry or whomever - take a peek at how people felt about some of the current (and still polarizing) studs in the NFL back then - and maybe maybe just keep the door open to admit maybe you can be open to the possibility a player is a potential stud. After all what is more important? Being right or being a dynasty champion?*

Odell Beckham

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=72507&p

Mike Evans

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=67444&p
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=66290&p

Brandin Cooks

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=67804&p
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=70998&p

Davante Adams

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=67916&p
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=71031&p

Jarvis Landry

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=74857&p

Allen Robinson

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=76235&p

Sammy Watkins

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=74705&p

* dont be a smartass and say both. Obviously it is possible to be both. The point is dont sacrifice winning for the other.