Josh Jacobs: Moving On Up

[Valhalla]

That makes no sense ... obviously if you post on this board, then you must know more than GMs in the NFL being paid hundreds of thousands perhaps millions per year to judge talent. Obviously, the public data available is far superior than the data from private workouts. I can’t believe I read what you wrote.

Maybe I am missing something, but didn't he basically say the same thing here? If NFL evaluates him as a first, he will not care about the poor measurables. If he falls in the draft (therefor meaning those people working in the NFL judge his talent as less) he won't touch Jacobs early . . . not sure where I am missing that you disagree, but maybe I completely misread something, haha.

There may have been just a tad bit of sarcasm in my post ...

I was just going to say...the thing being misread is the invisible sarcasm font he’s using

[Valhalla]

That makes no sense ... obviously if you post on this board, then you must know more than GMs in the NFL being paid hundreds of thousands perhaps millions per year to judge talent. Obviously, the public data available is far superior than the data from private workouts. I can’t believe I read what you wrote.

I don’t know why it is assumed that nfl higher ups are actually good at their jobs. It’s the good ol boys club over there and once you’re in you’re in. Look at the never ending Ferris wheel of hacks that keep getting jobs and keep failing and keep getting jobs and keep failing and keep ....

The reality is is all walks of life that the higher up the curve the greater the disparity from one percentile to the next ... for the sake argument let’s say any NFL GM ever is top 10% at talent evaluation ... but a GM that’s in the Top 5% or 1% would make them look like an amateur.

This is true, but I do agree with him. There are some unqualified GMs out there (and coaches) if you ever care to dig into the history. GMs have gotten jobs by being buddies with an owner. Coaches have many many times over gotten jobs through relation. Owners are owners because they are either passionate fans that are super rich, or just super rich and see the franchise as another good investment. They aren’t owners because they are great at evaluating who has a great football mind. Why do you assume they hire the best football minds? Honestly, it’s likely most owners don’t know as much about the game as many of us do...simply because it’s not where their passions/interests lie as strongly. They are usually very wealthy because they have a very strong business drive...not because they spend hours upon hours digesting football stats/articles. They hire GMs based mostly on a golf club mentality.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I don’t know why it is assumed that nfl higher ups are actually good at their jobs. It’s the good ol boys club over there and once you’re in you’re in. Look at the never ending Ferris wheel of hacks that keep getting jobs and keep failing and keep getting jobs and keep failing and keep ....

The reality is is all walks of life that the higher up the curve the greater the disparity from one percentile to the next ... for the sake argument let’s say any NFL GM ever is top 10% at talent evaluation ... but a GM that’s in the Top 5% or 1% would make them look like an amateur.

This is true, but I do agree with him. There are some unqualified GMs out there (and coaches) if you ever care to dig into the history. GMs have gotten jobs by being buddies with an owner. Coaches have many many times over gotten jobs through relation. Owners are owners because they are either passionate fans that are super rich, or just super rich and see the franchise as another good investment. They aren’t owners because they are great at evaluating who has a great football mind. Why do you assume they hire the best football minds? Honestly, it’s likely most owners don’t know as much about the game as many of us do...simply because it’s not where their passions/interests lie as strongly. They are usually very wealthy because they have a very strong business drive...not because they spend hours upon hours digesting football stats/articles. They hire GMs based mostly on a golf club mentality.

That’s fair & I’ll grant emotion often gets in the way of good organizational decisions ... look at the Cowboys, they were horrendous at talent evaluation for so many years, but they’ve changed course & have been remarkably successful at drafting over the past 10 years or so ... too bad Jerry can’t let go of how the team handles veterans.

I think my original point is still valid though that we are limited in all the information available to us to judge talent; so anyone that discounts what professionals are saying is doing so at their own risk ... are there going to be examples when group think among professionals misses big time? Absolutely ... looking at you Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, and Bishop Sankey. But it’s more of an art than a science trying figure out when hype is legit versus group think.

[tresskid84]

Maybe I am missing something, but didn't he basically say the same thing here? If NFL evaluates him as a first, he will not care about the poor measurables. If he falls in the draft (therefor meaning those people working in the NFL judge his talent as less) he won't touch Jacobs early . . . not sure where I am missing that you disagree, but maybe I completely misread something, haha.

There may have been just a tad bit of sarcasm in my post ...

I was just going to say...the thing being misread is the invisible sarcasm font he’s using

Does anyone know a good hole I can crawl into???

[Jason3123]

Nobody hates NFL owners more than me, but draft capital is still king IMO for rookie pick success and if Jacobs goes first round then I am willing to still take him with a high rookie pick (let’s say top 3 for high), because draft capital is still one of the highest indicators of success, especially RB’s. If he falls in the draft well then he would almost be off my board.

[Ice]

K. Johnson didn't run at the combine and ran 4.58 at his pro day and everyone around here loves that guy.

Two points.

- KJ ran a low 4.5 at his Pro Day (I think it was 4.53), but playerprofiler.com adds time to Pro Day 40s. If Jacobs' best time was a 4.63, PP will end up listing him with a 4.68 or something like that.

- KJ had excellent jump scores, indicating (correctly) his elite acceleration/explosiveness. If Jacobs jumped a 112 broad jump then that alone represents a huge difference from KJ's testing numbers profile (and with a broad like that, Jacobs' vert is probably lower 30s). Long-speed isn't the only kind of speed, and arguably isn't the most important gear for an RB anyway.

But, to be fair: jump scores are unreliable for indicating an RB's burst.

A few points,

1) I am certain Scouts that actually watched Jacobs drills today will come away impressed.
2) I am also sure many scouts will come away impressed that Jacobs is a warrior not afraid to put in work with a groin injury.
3) He is one of the most natural pass catchers I have seen in a while. Actually compares favorably to Kamara in that regard.

I get many people love KJ but he doesn't have Jacob's body type or ability to run routes like Jacobs. KJ doesn't have his pad level or burst through the hole. It shows up on tape.

My take is Jacob's will be a far better RB long term. I don't think it will be close. This doesn't mean I don't like KJ, I do, although I think he is closer to a one contact type player. KJ made a grand total of 118 carries in 10 games before breaking. 40% of those games were under 4 YPC. His upright style and lean hips and lower body make him a pretty high injury risk.

I don't see Jacobs getting past the Eagles at 25 in the draft if he lasts that long. Teams are gong to want that 5th year option on this player IMO. Lastly, I am quite surprised how many people put so much stock in the combine.

Doesn't anyone watch tape anymore?

[Jason3123]

I do agree Jacobs looks good on tape. I also like the way he carries himself on the field.

[Cult of Dionysus]

Crazy thing is Jerry Jones was a successful college football player and even won a national championship! Dude was a baller! He has more football experience than all the other owners combined. And he spends more time with and for the team than probably most of the other owners, again combined. There may be a handful of exceptions. Jones, for all his faults, loves and lives the Cowboys! If you've never seen his installment of A Football Life, it worth watching. One of the most illuminating.

[Titans95]

The reality is is all walks of life that the higher up the curve the greater the disparity from one percentile to the next ... for the sake argument let’s say any NFL GM ever is top 10% at talent evaluation ... but a GM that’s in the Top 5% or 1% would make them look like an amateur.

This is true, but I do agree with him. There are some unqualified GMs out there (and coaches) if you ever care to dig into the history. GMs have gotten jobs by being buddies with an owner. Coaches have many many times over gotten jobs through relation. Owners are owners because they are either passionate fans that are super rich, or just super rich and see the franchise as another good investment. They aren’t owners because they are great at evaluating who has a great football mind. Why do you assume they hire the best football minds? Honestly, it’s likely most owners don’t know as much about the game as many of us do...simply because it’s not where their passions/interests lie as strongly. They are usually very wealthy because they have a very strong business drive...not because they spend hours upon hours digesting football stats/articles. They hire GMs based mostly on a golf club mentality.

That’s fair & I’ll grant emotion often gets in the way of good organizational decisions ... look at the Cowboys, they were horrendous at talent evaluation for so many years, but they’ve changed course & have been remarkably successful at drafting over the past 10 years or so ... too bad Jerry can’t let go of how the team handles veterans.

I think my original point is still valid though that we are limited in all the information available to us to judge talent; so anyone that discounts what professionals are saying is doing so at their own risk ... are there going to be examples when group think among professionals misses big time? Absolutely ... looking at you Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, and Bishop Sankey. But it’s more of an art than a science trying figure out when hype is legit versus group think.

I'd also argue that if we saw every single GM's big board predraft there would be a much higher hit rate based on averages. We as fans only really ever see the media's group think from what they claim to here from different sources/analysts for NFL/ESPN. We also judge nfl GM's "hit rate" based on actual draft position, for all we know more GM's than not could've had much lower grades on guys like Treadwell and White but all it takes is for one team to make a selection and that's what we see.

[ninotoreS]

One thing I'll say I like about Jacobs is his age. He turned 21 only a month ago.

There's strong historical correlation for long-term NFL success with RBs picked by Day 2 that were still 20 years old at the time of their NFL draft. Jacobs is missing that window by a few months, but only a few months. Point is, he's young, he'll play his entire rookie year as a 21 y/o. He has lots of tread, and he may not be done developing physically. I've come to believe after some years of doing dynasty that RB rookie age is a bit more important than people appreciate (everyone does focus on WR rookie age -- imo RB rookie age isn't too far behind in significance).

KJ doesn't have his... burst through the hole. It shows up on tape.

Doesn't anyone watch tape anymore?

Do you, though? Burst is all over KJ's rookie tape, practically every inch of it. So is strength (outrageously so) and power (moderate in frequency but memorable when it was evidenced, e.g. RIP Jeff Heath), two more things I've seen you argue he lacks, which he plainly doesn't. I don't want to segue to KJ; he has his own threads. My point here is that I think you study some tape, and I think at other times you claim you have when you haven't. In regard to Jacobs, which is it this time?

I have not studied Jacobs yet. Obviously I don't count a few Bama games I watched last year.

Josh Jacobs certainly has loyal supporters. Saw Daniel Jeremiah getting low-key defensive on twitter about Jacobs' disappointing Pro Day. He mocked him in like the top 10 of the entire draft class, which seems wild to me, but, you know... I haven't studied him yet, so I ain't planting flags until I have.

[Ice]

One thing I'll say I like about Jacobs is his age. He turned 21 only a month ago.

There's strong historical correlation for long-term NFL success with RBs picked by Day 2 that were still 20 years old at the time of their NFL draft. Jacobs is missing that window by a few months, but only a few months. Point is, he's young, he'll play his entire rookie year as a 21 y/o. He has lots of tread, and he may not be done developing physically. I've come to believe after some years of doing dynasty that RB rookie age is a bit more important than people appreciate (everyone does focus on WR rookie age -- imo RB rookie age isn't too far behind in significance).

KJ doesn't have his... burst through the hole. It shows up on tape.

Doesn't anyone watch tape anymore?

Do you, though? Burst is all over KJ's rookie tape, practically every inch of it. So is strength (outrageously so) and power (moderate in frequency but memorable when it was evidenced, e.g. RIP Jeff Heath), two more things I've seen you argue he lacks, which he plainly doesn't. I don't want to segue to KJ; he has his own threads. My point here is that I think you study some tape, and I think at other times you claim you have when you haven't. In regard to Jacobs, which is it this time?

I have not studied Jacobs yet. Obviously I don't count a few Bama games I watched last year.

Josh Jacobs certainly has loyal supporters. Saw Daniel Jeremiah getting low-key defensive on twitter about Jacobs' disappointing Pro Day. He mocked him in like the top 10 of the entire draft class, which seems wild to me, but, you know... I haven't studied him yet, so I ain't planting flags until I have.

I have done hours of in depth study on both of those players.

BTW, I didn't say KJ didn't have burst. As far as strength, KJ has a long way to go; willingness is great with KJ but that is not strength compared to Jacobs. As it relates to 60 - 90 more days of roaming the earth, well I can't respond to that as that seems insignificant and waaaay too much black magic in the grand scheme to me.

Perhaps you should actually study the tape from a comparative perspective and then comment instead of arguing points I didn't even make. I did make a comment comparing Jacobs burst to another good RB.

Jacobs is a nice blend of the Saints 2018 backfield. He looks like a legit 3 down back for years at the NFL level.

[ArrylT]

If people are knocking Jacobs down their board purely because of subpar 40 and a bad broad jump then it's likely the people that that think Metcalf is the next coming of Jesus because of his combine numbers.

You forgot about his 3 Cone though ...

[Cameron Giles]

Ouch.
Getting more and more happy I did not invest in picks this year.

Seriously. This draft looks depressing on paper and on video. I feel for the people who stockpiled picks for this class and have to pretend it wasn't a mistake. Jacobs and Metcalf are not 1.01 or 1.02 type of prospects.

Jacobs will be a solid RB though. He's not so straight line slow that this should take away from what he does. I don't see star potential though.

[Factory of Sadness]

Sigh. A year ago people couldn't wait for N'Keal Harry. Another 1000 yard season, weighs in at more than 225lbs, runs the forty in 4.53 and we're bored of him already and wishing he was Jerry Jeudy. Let's be truthful for a minute. Swift and Ettiene aside, no-one has a clue how next year's class will stack up to this one.
Last year was epic for RBs. This year was never supposed to be. Instead, having happily drafted some good smaller receivers in recent years we were waiting for the big boys to arrive. We worried pre-combine that maybe they weren't big. They are. Maybe they would all be slow. They're fast. It's just so much cooler though to be a cynic. Everyone is dreadful. No-one can play...

[Jason3123]

Sigh. A year ago people couldn't wait for N'Keal Harry. Another 1000 yard season, weighs in at more than 225lbs, runs the forty in 4.53 and we're bored of him already and wishing he was Jerry Jeudy. Let's be truthful for a minute. Swift and Ettiene aside, no-one has a clue how next year's class will stack up to this one.
Last year was epic for RBs. This year was never supposed to be. Instead, having happily drafted some good smaller receivers in recent years we were waiting for the bog boys to arrive. We worried pre-combine that maybe they weren't big. They are. Maybe they would all be slow. They're fast. It's just so much cooler though to be a cynic. Everyone is dreadful. No-one can play...

N’keal is my number 1. I think Brown is my #2.