Any Philip Lindsay Believers Out There?

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MEuRaH
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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby MEuRaH » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:08 am

In my league, he averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game. I think 15 is his ceiling, and 10 is his floor. This is good for 9th & 32nd respectively. He might start sharing more carries with Royce as the team attempts to keep him healthier longer. He's not a big guy as far as RBs go.
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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby trc » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:20 am

ninotoreS wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:56 pm ...And Elway will probably continue pressuring the coaching staff to give too many touches to the other RBs he actually selected in the draft, whether they deserve it or not (e.g. imo it's stupid that Booker had 51 targets last year, why not keep Lindsay on the field and give him those targets? Lindsay wasn't used in space the way he should be because Elway wanted his draft pick to keep a token role on offense).
This relief of work could actually benefit Lindsay down the stretch.

I remember a time, where this forum (myself included) wanted Lamar Miller to get more work than he did in MIA, because he did so good when he was given the ball.
But as history turned out, he was given the excact (more or less) correct amount of carries/touches he could turn in to something.

Same story could be the case here.

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby moishetreats » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:21 am

How many of us really believe that Lindsay has 4+ years of top-end fantasy football production in him? Compare that to the potential of the aforementioned KJ and Chubb, and our confidence in Lindsay pales compared to the possibilities of the other guys. We're simply dubious of the likelihood of him have repeated success and even more dubious of him improving.

So, limited ceiling compared to the others and more likely that his floor drops quite a bit below others'. That's why, IMO.
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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Bot101 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:14 am

Ive been pretty loudly saying to sell Lindsay. But its not because I don't like him as a player.

1: Hes very small

2: Hes undrafted, and sharing the backfield with someone they drafted in the 3rd rnd

3: New coaching staff

4: New scheme is switching from man blocking to zone blocking. Lindsay excels in man, Freeman is a zone runner

5: Hes coming off a serious wrist injury and will likely miss some off season work. Also heard he may never regain full strenin said wrist again.

Again, its nothing to do with not liking him as a player. Just in a dynasty context, looking at all the variables, hes a massive sell where his ADP is.

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:30 am

trc wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:20 am
ninotoreS wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:56 pm ...And Elway will probably continue pressuring the coaching staff to give too many touches to the other RBs he actually selected in the draft, whether they deserve it or not (e.g. imo it's stupid that Booker had 51 targets last year, why not keep Lindsay on the field and give him those targets? Lindsay wasn't used in space the way he should be because Elway wanted his draft pick to keep a token role on offense).
This relief of work could actually benefit Lindsay down the stretch.

I remember a time, where this forum (myself included) wanted Lamar Miller to get more work than he did in MIA, because he did so good when he was given the ball.
But as history turned out, he was given the excact (more or less) correct amount of carries/touches he could turn in to something.

Same story could be the case here.
Yeah. I traded for Miller once he finally got that workhorse role. Wasn't the worst trade I made as volume offset his drop in production, but it's true that for some backs a non-workhorse role is a good thing...
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QB (1): Herbert, Lawrence, Darnold
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Pollard, Singletary, L. Murray
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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby jetsfan5757 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:35 am

Some thing others have mentioned is true for me. Also think he is likely to suffer more in non-PPR leagues than PPR. His size, change in blocking scheme are things that will effect the portion of his production that comes from carrying the ball.
Dynasty League (25 man rosters + 2 IR, non-PPR scoring. QB/3RB/3WR/2TE/K/DB/LB/DL no flex)

QB (1): Herbert, Lawrence, Darnold
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Pollard, Singletary, L. Murray
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, J. Smith-Schuster, R Bateman, E. Moore
TE (2): I. Smith Jr, H. Henry, Schultz, Tremble

K (1): M. Crosby

DB (1): J. Adams
LB (1): F. Warner
DL (1): D. Lawrence

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Ice » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:48 am

I turned down an offer to sell him for 1.7.

He is a very good football player. Not worried about 190lbs; at 5'8" he is well built. 10'lbs an inch at this level is a pretty good marker for RB. The scouts flat out missed on him.

Just in running:
18th in carries, 9th in yards, tied 7th in TD's.

Only Barkley was a better rookie on production. ( Both made Pro Bowl )

Compared to Chubb. Exact same number of carries, 41 more yards, and 2 more rushing TD's. (Chubb 16 games)
Compared to Kamara; 2 less carries, 154 more yards, 4 less TD's. (Both 15 Games)

Not saying I would take Lindsay over them obviously but his comps are very good.
No real concern about his wrist injury at his age. It could bother him some in his 50's.

BTW, Elway wants to win as much as anyone and in the end he is not the coach but knows you put the best players on the field. I also read a quote saying something to the effect he would like 53 Lindsay's. I just don't buy the speculation that GM's make start decisions on Sunday. Draft position arguments also fall flat. Making the roster is ultimately the marker. GM's don't get fired for missing on 3rd round picks especially when they pick up a FA rookie that makes the pro bowl.

Lindsay will do great in either blocking scheme. He has vision, burst, and has excellent one cut ability. Freeman is competition but less than Hunt is to Chubb as an example. Lindsay was much better than Freeman last year, obviously.
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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby ArrylT » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:39 am

Bot101 wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:14 am Again, its nothing to do with not liking him as a player. Just in a dynasty context, looking at all the variables, hes a massive sell where his ADP is.
This is more of a general response, rather than directly to Bot101:

It seems to me that Lindsay like other players, being a controversial value, is not helped by his early off-season ADP. If you're high on him odds are you're likely already an owner - although I am not suggesting all Lindsay fans are owners - just that his ADP from Nov-February and his original cost means that it is suggestive that many are. I am sure there are plenty of owners who like Lindsay and/or his situation at least short-term but do not want to buy based off of current ADP figuring that means his cost is too expensive for them.

His March ADP has seen some regression - thanks to the inclusion of Rookies - and I think is now closer to what you can actually use to buy/sell him - which seems to be a late 1st in typical 12 team ppr leagues. Before his ADP had him above 1.01 - now it is more of a mid first ADP, which is likely still too rich for many, but much more palatable than it was.

In other words, if you're an owner who got Lindsay in an orphan, or some how "lucked" into him, and are trying to sell at his past ADP odds are slim you are having much success. But if you're more open to moving Lindsay for more than his original cost, but less than ADP suggests, you are more likely to have success, league dependent of course.
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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Cameron Giles » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:51 am

He was older for a rookie RB (25 in July gasp) and people think it was a fluke.

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Oddball456 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:51 am

I don't see that many people thinking Lindsey is = to Chubb or KJ; but I was surprised people were favoring the 8 game suspended, production mimicked by Damien Williams, behind a young stud Chubb, K Hunt...

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:50 pm

Lindsay is one of the best receiving RBs in the league, possibly the best. And he was woefully underutilized in that regard last season.

I'd spend a mid 2019 1st on him in an instant. And I sold him, Albert Wilson and a late 2020 1st for 1.01 recently.

I still own him in DLF Premuim League, and I would reject anything less than 1.03 without pause.

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Jason3123 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:28 pm

moishetreats wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:21 am How many of us really believe that Lindsay has 4+ years of top-end fantasy football production in him? Compare that to the potential of the aforementioned KJ and Chubb, and our confidence in Lindsay pales compared to the possibilities of the other guys. We're simply dubious of the likelihood of him have repeated success and even more dubious of him improving.

So, limited ceiling compared to the others and more likely that his floor drops quite a bit below others'. That's why, IMO.
The view of "long-term" fantasy production is one of the biggest weaknesses for dynasty fantasy players, as they often believe a young player has this incredibly long future ahead of them when the fact is a strong majority of players will not be relevant in 4 years. Especially RB's, but it applies to all positions really.

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Jason3123 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:30 pm

M-Dub wrote: Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:26 am in addition to the standard knocks on his size and lack of draft capital, I suspect there might be some recency bias involved as well. Other than the week 3 game where he got ejected early in the 1st quarter, weeks 15 and 16 were Lindsay’s worst two fantasy performances of the year. If owners were relying on him in semifinal and/or championship games, they were likely disappointed with those stat lines. Of course the hand injury has a lot of people worried as well.

One of the more baffling knocks on him that I’ve read is that the new coaching staff won’t have any loyalty to him. I can’t imagine a new coaching staff coming into Denver, looking at game film and box scores from last season and coming away with the conclusion that Lindsay wasn’t the most talented and effective RB on that team last year. If anything, I think a new coaching staff will benefit him moving forward. He was criminally underutilized in the passing game last year, so even if he cedes more carries to Freeman, I expect his targets to increase proportionately.

As the OG Lindsay truther around these parts, I’m probably more than a little biased, but it’s not like Lindsay was just a late-season flash in the pan, like Rawls, CJA or Gus Edwards. He came right out of the gate blazing in week 1 and just continued to produce. If not for the hand injury that cost him the final game of the year, he almost certainly would’ve finished as a back-end RB1. Without knowing any rookie landing spots yet, I wouldn’t sell him for less than the 1.02 straight up.
This is an underrated point. Lindsay balled out from training camp to the end of the season. Unlike so many previous hype pieces like the aforementioned Rawls, who were a flash in the pan. He gave us an entire season for sample size on a pretty awful offense.

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Space Cowboy » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:32 pm

Simple answer --- UDFA.

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Re: Why does it seem people here don't like Philip Lindsay?

Postby Jason3123 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:34 pm

From an ADP sense I guess Lindsay is overvalued because ADP is stupid anyways, but if you want actual fantasy points then you will enjoy having Lindsay on your roster. If you like having a hyped up roster with paper points then you will probably prefer some younger unproven guys who never amount to anything.


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