So, we're all assuming that with Brown out JuJu will continue to thrive (and that's fair), but Matt Harmon has some statistics that paint an interesting picture. Harmon always does an excellent job with Reception Perception. This is what he posted on Twitter a while back:
These WRs might as well be playing different positions. From their 2018 #ReceptionPerception samples...
Antonio Brown:
- 76.5% of snaps outside
- 76.3% of snaps on the line
Coverages Faced:
Press %: 47.5
Man %: 70.3
Zone %: 29.7
Double Team: 8.5%
JuJu Smith-Schuster:
- 55.6% of snaps in the slot
- 59.7% of snaps off the line
Coverages Faced:
Press %: 28.3
Man %: 55.1
Zone %: 44.9
Double Team: 0.8
James Washington in College:
- One of the best recorded contested catch rates (87.5%)
- Excellent scores on deep routes
- Cleared the 80th percentile among prospects with 74% success rate vs. man
Basically, AB and JuJu were asked to do completely different things last season. There's a possibility that JuJu will have to take on that role unless the Steelers can find someone to do enough to keep JuJu in the role he's really good at in the slot and lining up off the line of scrimmage with limited press and man coverage. Washington's college success against man would seem to give him a shot, but it's interesting how much JuJu benefitted from playing a specialized role with significantly favorable coverage last season.
Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
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Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
Last edited by Cameron Giles on Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
I’ve had a drink or two, but these numbers look suspect at a glance.
Didn’t brown and juju share a good majority of snaps? How does juju see Zone almost twice as often? Unless it’s a zone base AND a man on AB. I’d qualify that for double team. And 8.5% double team for AB feels a pinch low.
Again, had a drink or two. Could be wrong
Didn’t brown and juju share a good majority of snaps? How does juju see Zone almost twice as often? Unless it’s a zone base AND a man on AB. I’d qualify that for double team. And 8.5% double team for AB feels a pinch low.
Again, had a drink or two. Could be wrong
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start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT
QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
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WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
It makes sense based on what I saw from watching the games/tape.
Juju reminds me a lot of Tyler Boyd's situation.
Juju reminds me a lot of Tyler Boyd's situation.
Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
JuJu is a great WR. AB has been the best WR for a few seasons.
I know at times defenses doubled AB which left JuJu with single coverage. JuJu being great, did well against single coverage. If JuJu is doing well against 1 on 1, then teams probably didn't double AB as much. These 2 wreaked havoc last season...
Now with AB gone I would think teams will double JuJu as they did with AB last season. However, now you don't have a great WR2 on the other side which, to me, would mean they just continually double JuJu now.
That's how I generally think pass coverage will go... However, I do think JuJu will see an uptick in targets and possibly TD. He is the best WR now on that offense, after all. It should be interesting to see if the added coverage and targets will lead to more, less or similar production.
That's my arm chair analysis
I know at times defenses doubled AB which left JuJu with single coverage. JuJu being great, did well against single coverage. If JuJu is doing well against 1 on 1, then teams probably didn't double AB as much. These 2 wreaked havoc last season...
Now with AB gone I would think teams will double JuJu as they did with AB last season. However, now you don't have a great WR2 on the other side which, to me, would mean they just continually double JuJu now.
That's how I generally think pass coverage will go... However, I do think JuJu will see an uptick in targets and possibly TD. He is the best WR now on that offense, after all. It should be interesting to see if the added coverage and targets will lead to more, less or similar production.
That's my arm chair analysis
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
From 166? Maybe, but he was targeted like a number 1 last year.Jigga94 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:23 pm JuJu is a great WR. AB has been the best WR for a few seasons.
I know at times defenses doubled AB which left JuJu with single coverage. JuJu being great, did well against single coverage. If JuJu is doing well against 1 on 1, then teams probably didn't double AB as much. These 2 wreaked havoc last season...
Now with AB gone I would think teams will double JuJu as they did with AB last season. However, now you don't have a great WR2 on the other side which, to me, would mean they just continually double JuJu now.
That's how I generally think pass coverage will go... However, I do think JuJu will see an uptick in targets and possibly TD. He is the best WR now on that offense, after all. It should be interesting to see if the added coverage and targets will lead to more, less or similar production.
That's my arm chair analysis
Last edited by FantasyFreak on Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
Ok maybe not then. Didn't realize he already had 10+ a game. I'd expect him to get that many per game this year as well though still
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
Yeah, and it was 166, sorry. I would too, just not sure if he'll get more.
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
I think JuJu has 3 real outcomes:
1) struggles mightily facing Press and double coverage and falls back to being a mid WR2. 20% chance
2) gets a big target bump and takes his technical game up 2 notches this off season and kills it despite the greater coverage and jumps up to top 3-4 WR. 20% chance
3) gets similar targets, struggles a bit for receptions and yardage due to the coverage, but has a few more TDs than last season, equaling out to about the same number of fantasy points and ends a mid to low end WR1. 60% chance
That’s about my best guess
1) struggles mightily facing Press and double coverage and falls back to being a mid WR2. 20% chance
2) gets a big target bump and takes his technical game up 2 notches this off season and kills it despite the greater coverage and jumps up to top 3-4 WR. 20% chance
3) gets similar targets, struggles a bit for receptions and yardage due to the coverage, but has a few more TDs than last season, equaling out to about the same number of fantasy points and ends a mid to low end WR1. 60% chance
That’s about my best guess
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QB: Brees, Cousins
RB: McCaffery, Guice, D Williams, Breida, Drake, Penny, S Ware, R Jones, J Adams, I Smith
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
My guess is that Juju will see similar targets and perhaps struggle with consistency depending on matchups a bit early on as his team's true #1 wr. But, as he learns and gains more experience with the coverage, he'll improve and the Pitt offense will adjust. I'd imagine they'd like to go run heavy and take pressure off of juju with play action passes. I expect Pittsburgh to draft another wr or te in the first 3 rounds. Anyway, He (Juju), is after all just 21 /22 years old. I'd expect him to be capable of both physical improvement, route running refinement, and the nuances that are part of his craft. He is still learning on how to be a professional. Long story short, I expect his performance to be similar but I expect his craft to improve. Juju is in the conversation as a top 3 dynasty wr for me. Watching him play - he is overflowing with the "it" factor. He isn't just a product of AB receiving double coverage like some hint at.
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
He will do just fine besides when they play the Pats, since Bill B is great at taking away a team's number one offensive player. I would assume at this juncture that is clearly Juju, no offense to Connor.
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Re: Interesting Stats about Juju/AB/Washington
I think he will get a slight uptick in targets, crazy as that sounds, unless they bring in another decent target, AND throw fewer passes. I get JuJu already got a ton of targets, but AB got 168.who do they throw those to?
Also, I don't agree with any attempt to insinuate that JuJu can't produce without AB there. I think there will be more plays designed/called based on what he does best, instead of AB. I think he has already shown he is a quick learner and works hard enough to get better.
People are also talking like defense will focus all the attention that AB used to get on JuJu now. I think a lot of that will get focused on their run game, and that Conner will suffer more than JuJu.
I think JuJu will get 1,000 yds and 10 TDs with his eyes closed even if there is an adjustment period to double coverage. I think it's more likely he gets 1,200+ and 10+ TDs.
Also, I don't agree with any attempt to insinuate that JuJu can't produce without AB there. I think there will be more plays designed/called based on what he does best, instead of AB. I think he has already shown he is a quick learner and works hard enough to get better.
People are also talking like defense will focus all the attention that AB used to get on JuJu now. I think a lot of that will get focused on their run game, and that Conner will suffer more than JuJu.
I think JuJu will get 1,000 yds and 10 TDs with his eyes closed even if there is an adjustment period to double coverage. I think it's more likely he gets 1,200+ and 10+ TDs.
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QB (1): Herbert, Lawrence, Darnold
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Pollard, Singletary, L. Murray
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, J. Smith-Schuster, R Bateman, E. Moore
TE (2): I. Smith Jr, H. Henry, Schultz, Tremble
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DL (1): D. Lawrence
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QB (1): Herbert, Lawrence, Darnold
RB (3): N. Chubb, D. Henry, J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Pollard, Singletary, L. Murray
WR (3): D. Hopkins, D. Adams, M. Evans, D.J. Moore, DJ Chark, B. Aiyuk, J. Smith-Schuster, R Bateman, E. Moore
TE (2): I. Smith Jr, H. Henry, Schultz, Tremble
K (1): M. Crosby
DB (1): J. Adams
LB (1): F. Warner
DL (1): D. Lawrence
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