DK Metcalf is your 1.01 now.

[Forza_Azzurri]

Mike Evans (a significantly better draft prospect) at his current pace has a reasonable argument to get into the Hall of Fame. He has 5 straight seasons with at least 1000 yards. He's an elite receiver to say the least.

To say someone's floor is Mike Evans is hilarious. If Metcalf ever becomes Mike Evans, I think people would be thanking their lucky stars.

Time will tell.

Evans is an elite WR but he is not the best route runner on that team. He is a big, somewhat lumbering WR with solid hands and a good body.

Evans is a good example of how to use a player’s strengths in the passing game.

Lmao. His floor is 1 of 3 receivers in history to start their careers with 5 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Dude you've jumped the shark. Sit back and be quiet and pray Metcalf doesn't make you look silly.

I don’t agree with Evans being Metcalf’s floor ... however, Evans has been remarkably consistent but never had a “wow” season. I’d argue that is because he’s never had a great QB and supporting cast but neither did Calvin Johnson and he had “wow” seasons.

So IMO, Metcalf’s floor is 10-15% lower than Evans ... I’d set his floor at 75-80 rec, 900 yards & 6-8 TDs. I don’t think any other prospect has that floor in this draft other than Jacobs but his shelf life will be shorter.

AJ Brown is the consensus safe pick ... I think his reception floor is higher, but I don’t think his yards or TD floor are higher. All the while, his ceiling is definitely lower.

For the life of me, I can’t understand why this board is debating who is 1.01 pre-NFL draft when anyone of at least five guys could claim that mantle based landing spot.

[Phaded]

In before it's somebody completely random that no one has mentioned..

[Cameron Giles]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

[tresskid84]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

[Forza_Azzurri]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

If he ends up on Baltimore, Buffalo or Redskins, I think 80 receptions is guaranteed ... who else are they going to throw to?

If he ends up on a more sophisticated passing offense, his reception floor is probably lower but his efficiency will be much higher.

If he ends up of the Titans, his reception floor probably is about 25 ... so maybe 80 is too high.

Point being, he, like everyone else in this class is landing spot dependent.

[FiremanEd]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

I don't think people know what 'floor' actually means. I am now convinced.

[Phaded]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

If he ends up on Baltimore, Buffalo or Redskins, I think 80 receptions is guaranteed ... who else are they going to throw to?

Last year none of these three teams had anyone who really got close to 80 receptions..
So the "who else are they going to throw to" logic is very flawed.

In fact - there were only 14 WRs who had 80 receptions or more last year; which would mean there's not even enough 80-reception receivers for half the teams in the league to have one.

[Ice]

I don’t agree with Evans being Metcalf’s floor ... however, Evans has been remarkably consistent but never had a “wow” season. I’d argue that is because he’s never had a great QB and supporting cast but neither did Calvin Johnson and he had “wow” seasons.

So IMO, Metcalf’s floor is 10-15% lower than Evans ... I’d set his floor at 75-80 rec, 900 yards & 6-8 TDs. I don’t think any other prospect has that floor in this draft other than Jacobs but his shelf life will be shorter.

AJ Brown is the consensus safe pick ... I think his reception floor is higher, but I don’t think his yards or TD floor are higher. All the while, his ceiling is definitely lower.

For the life of me, I can’t understand why this board is debating who is 1.01 pre-NFL draft when anyone of at least five guys could claim that mantle based landing spot.

Agree on Evans consistency but would like to point out:
In 2017 Tampa had the 4th most passing yards in the league. Last Season Tampa ranked 1st in the NFL in passing yards at 320 per week average.

It will be interesting to how Evans fairs in the future if this team brings a more balanced attack to the field.

[Phaded]

Couldn't you argue that part of why Tampa Bay has had so many passing yards is because of Evans?

For example - in Pittsburgh, sure people will talk about Big Ben; but he had AB & JuJu which certainly helped their passing yards.

That said; Evans has also proven he can produce when the team isn't one of the top passing teams.
In 2016 - when he had his best fantasy season to date and his second highest yardage of his career, Tampa Bay was 16th in passing yards per game.
In 2015 - his third highest yardage of his career, Tampa Bay was 17th in passing yards per game.
And just for giggles, in 2014 when he also broke 1000 yards, Tampa Bay was 25th in passing yards per game.

He'll do perfectly fine if the yards per game drops; he has already proven that.

[Ice]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

If he ends up on Baltimore, Buffalo or Redskins, I think 80 receptions is guaranteed ... who else are they going to throw to?

Last year none of these three teams had anyone who really got close to 80 receptions..
So the "who else are they going to throw to" logic is very flawed.

In fact - there were only 14 WRs who had 80 receptions or more last year; which would mean there's not even enough 80-reception receivers for half the teams in the league to have one.

The 14 number is mainly a result of injury. There were 6-7 other WR's that averaged 5 receptions per game but missed 2 -4 games. Odell, Boyd, Hilton, Cooper, Edelman, Sanders, and Tate.

Obviously another 6 or so non WR's will hit 5 receptions per game on average from teams that throw to TE's or RB's like Philly and the Panthers as an example.

[Phaded]

If he ends up on Baltimore, Buffalo or Redskins, I think 80 receptions is guaranteed ... who else are they going to throw to?

Last year none of these three teams had anyone who really got close to 80 receptions..
So the "who else are they going to throw to" logic is very flawed.

In fact - there were only 14 WRs who had 80 receptions or more last year; which would mean there's not even enough 80-reception receivers for half the teams in the league to have one.

That 14 number is do mainly to injury. There were 6-7 others that averaged 5 receptions per game but missed 2 -4 games. Odell, Boyd, Hilton, Cooper, Edelman, Sanders, and Tate.

Okay but he was saying 80 receptions; not 5 receptions per game while healthy. 80 receptions is not the same as averaging 5 per games. Unless you get points based on what your guy averages even if hurt.

You then also have to factor that receivers see more targets while other WRs are out and the formula just gets messy.

[Ice]

Last year none of these three teams had anyone who really got close to 80 receptions..
So the "who else are they going to throw to" logic is very flawed.

In fact - there were only 14 WRs who had 80 receptions or more last year; which would mean there's not even enough 80-reception receivers for half the teams in the league to have one.

That 14 number is do mainly to injury. There were 6-7 others that averaged 5 receptions per game but missed 2 -4 games. Odell, Boyd, Hilton, Cooper, Edelman, Sanders, and Tate.

Okay but he was saying 80 receptions; not 5 receptions per game while healthy. 80 receptions is not the same as averaging 5 per games. Unless you get points based on what your guy averages even if hurt.

You then also have to factor that receivers see more targets while other WRs are out and the formula just gets messy.

I understand but included that some teams also feature non WR's in the passing game like Philly and the Panthers.

Typically between 20 and 30 players annually will hit 80 receptions or more total. It is a moving target which is why I look more to average per game. Some on the edge may miss a game due to rest for the playoffs or injury so it does get messy.

[Cameron Giles]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

If he ends up on Baltimore, Buffalo or Redskins, I think 80 receptions is guaranteed ... who else are they going to throw to?

If he ends up on a more sophisticated passing offense, his reception floor is probably lower but his efficiency will be much higher.

If he ends up of the Titans, his reception floor probably is about 25 ... so maybe 80 is too high.

Point being, he, like everyone else in this class is landing spot dependent.

Just for reference, since the merger only 7 rookie WR's have finished with 80 or more receptions in a season:

Michael Thomas (2016)
Odell Beckham (2014)
Jarvis Landry (2014)
Eddie Royal (2008)
Michael Clayton (2004)
Anquan Boldin (2003)
Terry Glenn (1996)

I'm just going to go out on a limb and say that it's extremely unlikely that Metcalf is going to catch 80 or more passes next season.

[Ice]

Couldn't you argue that part of why Tampa Bay has had so many passing yards is because of Evans?

For example - in Pittsburgh, sure people will talk about Big Ben; but he had AB & JuJu which certainly helped their passing yards.

That said; Evans has also proven he can produce when the team isn't one of the top passing teams.
In 2016 - when he had his best fantasy season to date and his second highest yardage of his career, Tampa Bay was 16th in passing yards per game.
In 2015 - his third highest yardage of his career, Tampa Bay was 17th in passing yards per game.
And just for giggles, in 2014 when he also broke 1000 yards, Tampa Bay was 25th in passing yards per game.

He'll do perfectly fine if the yards per game drops; he has already proven that.

Sure you could. Evans is a very good player. He is a consistent player that hits 80 plus receptions some years with a 15 plus reception average.

[Ice]

I'm surprised that people think Metcalf's floor is an 80-reception receiver.

If he ends up on Baltimore, Buffalo or Redskins, I think 80 receptions is guaranteed ... who else are they going to throw to?

If he ends up on a more sophisticated passing offense, his reception floor is probably lower but his efficiency will be much higher.

If he ends up of the Titans, his reception floor probably is about 25 ... so maybe 80 is too high.

Point being, he, like everyone else in this class is landing spot dependent.

Just for reference, since the merger only 7 rookie WR's have finished with 80 or more receptions in a season:

Michael Thomas (2016)
Odell Beckham (2014)
Jarvis Landry (2014)
Eddie Royal (2008)
Michael Clayton (2004)
Anquan Boldin (2003)
Terry Glenn (1996)

I'm just going to go out on a limb and say that it's extremely unlikely that Metcalf is going to catch 80 or more passes next season.

Good post!

Do you know how many hit 65 plus?

The Titans is the only landing spot I am concerned about for any WR short term in dynasty.