2019 Rookie RB Review By dlf_mikeh / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby murphysxm » Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:36 pm

Posts like this are what make forums like this a fantastic resource. Many thanks MEuRaH
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby ninotoreS » Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:06 pm

I appreciate your posts MEuRaH, but it irrationally rankles me when anyone self-proclaims to be a guru.
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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby Ice » Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:41 pm

ninotoreS wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:06 pm I appreciate your posts MEuRaH, but it irrationally rankles me when anyone self-proclaims to be a guru.
Don't know MEuRaH from a hole in the wall but if that was directed at him, I will just say I have read his scouting reports in detail and from my perspective he knows exactly what to look for in RB's. That doesn't mean I agree with him on every player as there traits in certain player I or others may weigh a bit differently.
Last edited by Ice on Sat Mar 16, 2019 5:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby Patsfan86 » Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:41 pm

The posts are amazing, I just want to know what Meurah doesn’t see in Jacobs that seemingly every other “expert” at this does see? Jacobs seems to be the consensus 1.01 RB, yet Meurah has him as a maybe? I love this thread but I also have 1.01 and I’m drafting an RB. Consensus is saying Jacobs but this is really throwing me off. I trust this because he seems to know what he is talking about but again the consensus is all Josh Jacobs and he doesn’t see it.

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby MEuRaH » Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:37 am

ninotoreS wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 3:06 pmI appreciate your posts MEuRaH, but it irrationally rankles me when anyone self-proclaims to be a guru.
I'm just goofing around. I love self-riotousness as much as I love self-deprivation. I find it funny either way.
Weknownothing86 wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:41 pmThe posts are amazing, I just want to know what Meurah doesn’t see in Jacobs that seemingly every other “expert” at this does see? Jacobs seems to be the consensus 1.01 RB, yet Meurah has him as a maybe? I love this thread but I also have 1.01 and I’m drafting an RB. Consensus is saying Jacobs but this is really throwing me off. I trust this because he seems to know what he is talking about but again the consensus is all Josh Jacobs and he doesn’t see it.
I loved the consensus top RBs the last 3 years in a row. I hated Trent Richardson, who was also the consensus. There are far too many imperfections to overlook. Even in his highlights, there are consistent miss-reading of holes in the offensive line. This was the problem with T-Rich. Great highlights... can't read the blocking. Jacobs is more athletic so he'll do better than TRich did, but for how long? Will he get coached up?

I'd rather not deal with it.
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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:04 pm

Weknownothing86 wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:41 pm I just want to know what Meurah doesn’t see in Jacobs that seemingly every other “expert” at this does see?
They may be "experts" but they ain't "gurus."

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby tresskid84 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:36 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote: Sat Mar 16, 2019 4:04 pm
Weknownothing86 wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2019 8:41 pm I just want to know what Meurah doesn’t see in Jacobs that seemingly every other “expert” at this does see?
They may be "experts" but they ain't "gurus."
What about "sages" or "savants" or maybe "virtuoso"
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby Titans95 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:48 am

Hey MEuRaH have you had a chance to go back and reevaluate Holyfield? I liked him going into the combine as well and I typically try my best to avoid overreactions to the combine but wow he's really slow...does that concern you at all to maybe take him down from your #2 overall?

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby MEuRaH » Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:21 am

Titans95 wrote: Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:48 amHey MEuRaH have you had a chance to go back and reevaluate Holyfield? I liked him going into the combine as well and I typically try my best to avoid overreactions to the combine but wow he's really slow...does that concern you at all to maybe take him down from your #2 overall?
This review was round 1. I won't do round 2 until April. That way I'm to forget all my original rankings and start over from scratch.

The combine isn't important unless a player projected highly performs poorly. So short answer: yes it's a concern. Rarely does a highly ranked player perform poorly at the combine, and then follow it up with a high ranking. I can't even come up with 1 example of it happening. Gonna let it simmer until April though.
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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby Factory of Sadness » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:46 am

Contrasting thoughts here.
The speed with which the forum has gobbled up this analysis based upon Meurah's expertise as a HS RB coach makes the general distaste for NFL decision makers several rungs above that quite amusing. The willingness to unironically- in some cases- bestow guru status whilst simultaneously believing NFL scouts and GMs to be knuckle draggers yet to see the light of 2x 3cone over college production at 18 times 10 yard split is- interesting...
Separately from this, as no Guru is truly responsible for those who follow, I'd like to add my thanks to those of others for the thoughtful, considered posts from Meurah here.

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby tresskid84 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:30 pm

Have you done any research on Darwin Thompson? Had a fantastic pro day today, only one year of action at Utah State, but had a tremendous season . . . I admittingly have not watched any of his tape yet, but I was wondering if anyone else had
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby ArrylT » Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:39 pm

tresskid84 wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:30 pm Have you done any research on Darwin Thompson? Had a fantastic pro day today, only one year of action at Utah State, but had a tremendous season . . . I admittingly have not watched any of his tape yet, but I was wondering if anyone else had
https://www.stampedeblue.com/2019/3/6/1 ... n-thompson

I think some of the Colts fans may have. 8-)
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby briank » Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:59 am

dlf_mikeh wrote: Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:18 pm I might as well put my money where my mouth is. I've been outspoken several times here before, but I've never given my RB analysis until AFTER the draft because owners in my league would otherwise steal my players. Well, I've decided that I'm just going to deal with that this year, and give you my 2019 review right now.

For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.

What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.

So without further ado, here are my rankings. I'm going to give 5 tiers: Must have's, Should be's, Could be's, Probably not's, and Definitely not's. The tiers aren't ranked in order. I'm not calling Holyfield better than Jacobs, for example. They are just in the same tier as of right now.

========================================================
MUST HAVE'S (Success No Matter Where He's Drafted)

Miles Sanders - He's my highest ranked RB so far and it's not even close. He's a good 20% better than any other RB I ranked in this class. He has amazing body control, is shifty, can make defenders miss (and by this, I mean make them mess when they are right next to him, which is rare), is patient with his blocks, and has great vision. What gives me some concern is that his run to catch ratio is 10-1. Ideally you'd want a back who has a 4-1 ratio because they would be able to be on the field for all 3 downs. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though, it just wasn't a positive. He's also only touched the ball around 350 times total. There's a ton of tread on those tires, so I expect him to have a long and great career. He's my 1 and only sure-thing in this draft, so far. In comparison to last year, he would have been my 2nd highest rated RB. Sanders is primarily a zone runner in college but I believe he can succeed in any scheme.

I gotta post a video. Just WOW on this kid. You can literally take ANY game film and watch it and Sanders will do something amazing at some point. In the following video, Sanders will make amazing plays vs Wisconsin at 1:02, 2:44, and 5:20.

1:02 - He is running zone read from inside out. The inside A & B gaps are not there. He waits for blocking to occur outside instead of pushing for yards on a crucial down. He avoids 2 tackles and then hurdles a defender to make sure he secures a 1st down. Wow. This was only a 7 yard gain but it kept the offense on the field for another set of downs. It's plays like this that NFL teams need to improve their defense (yes, improve the defense by keeping the offense on the field).

2:44 - Inside zone. His incredible vision sees an opening about to occur and he makes the cut as it's happening. He finds himself surrounded by 3 defenders (pause it at 3:02) and makes a second cut to the outside to avoid everyone, outrunning defenders to the edge to make a great gain.

5:20 - This is more of a showcase of his vision than anything else. Another zone play, and a lot of RBs would take the easy way by running to the edge which is free and clear of defenders. Sanders is patient and waits for that extra split second for the hole to open up and he hits it hard. Makes another bonus move later on to gain an extra 15 yards after a forced miss tackle. God this guy is good.



==========================================================================

SHOULD BE'S (Success In Any System & Good Coaching)

Elijah Holyfield - This is the only other runner in the entire draft who can sink his hips like Sanders can, though not as well. He is a great zone RB and I also believe he can succeed in any scheme he's draft into. However, I don't think he avoids contact nearly enough, which may make him more prone to injury. He also DOESN'T CATCH THE BALL EVER, which means he might not be a reliable every-down back. He might find himself in a timeshare as a result, maybe 2-1 at best. RBs who don't catch the ball as a collegiate usually don't do so well at the next level. It'll depend how hard of a worker he is. He would be my #6 or #7 guy if he was in last years draft. He's worth a mid-to-late 1st, given the right location.

==========================================================================

COULD BE'S (Has To Be Drafted To The Right Blocking Scheme)

Josh Jacobs - I love his power and quickness in short space. This is a power runner with great hands out of the backfield (my highest rated in this category). He can take contact very well, but seems to initiate it a bit much for my liking. A RBs ability to stay healthy and extend their career is a big deal, so Jacobs will need to learn how to avoid contact when necessary rather than plow through guys when given the chance. Maybe his vision is suspect. If that's the case, he'll have greater success if he's drafted to a power-scheme, like with Baltimore, Tampa Bay, & Seattle. I'd take him in the late 1st if this happened. Otherwise, I don't really want anything to do with him.

2:07 - Here is a video that makes me doubt him as a runner a little bit. 3rd & 3, this is a straight zone run play. Auburn has 7 in the box vs 6 blockers for 'bama, but the point of the play is to block the guy ahead of you and let the RB pick his spot and outrun to the corner. The WRs are purposely running go routes outside of the DBs to clear the outside. All Jacobs has to do is a pick a side and go, left or right. Inexplicably Jacobs chooses to run INSIDE........ INSIDE!!!!!!!!........ IN-F*&#*NG-SIDE........ and ends up running into his own guys and a pile of others, and fails to convert.

Don't see it? Pause the video at 2:07 and hold down the . key. . is slow motion forward, , is slow motion reverse. If you watch, it seems like he starts to go to the right, like he's made his decision already, but then notices the safety coming down so he decided the best course of action is to cut up the middle..... on a 6v7.... I don't get it.

He made several run plays like this. Dude has skills, which is why I believe he'd be great in a power system because he doesn't have to think, all he has to do is run where the play is designed for him to run. Cleveland switched to that mid-season, which is why Chubb did so well in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes the RB is a product of the system, and sometimes the system is the product of the RB. Jacobs would thrive if he were a product of the system.

SKIP TO 2:07


Myles Gaskin - I know. You might be thinking "WHO THE HELL IS MYLES GASKIN!?". Well lemme tell you what, this is the kind of guy you can draft in the 2nd or 3rd round and get yourself a starter almost immediately given the right system. We're had Tarik Cohen last year and James Conner the year before that. This years late-round pick is easily Myles Gaskins. He is a power runner with good quickness. He also has great hands and has been utilized somewhat to catch out the backfield. HOWEVER, he's touched the ball over 1000 times already, so his career may not last as long as others, but it does speak to his ability to stay healthy. You might be lucky enough to get him as late as the 3rd round. EDIT: I've researched a lot more of this guy and had over an hour to watch slow-motion film. I've cooled down a bit as I noticed his vision isn't as great as I once thought. There are times he made suspect decisions and gave up on plays before they developed. His greatest success came on power plays. I still think he can play in any system and is still a good bargain for a late rounder, but he won't be a stud. He's the kind of guy you draft late and then flip for a 1st later on.

Devin Singletary - This rating is probably the one that makes me the most nervous. He's a zone runner with great hips & his ability to avoid contact, but he's also played against smaller conferences his entire career, so some of the things he's done on tape just looks better as a result. However, I said the same about David Johnson, and Devin should be given credit for performing well at his level. He doesn't catch a lot out of the backfield, which will limit his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs. He could be good/useful in a timeshare on a zone-blocking scheme. If he goes to a power-team, he's going to be useless and I would avoid him at all costs. Otherwise, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round. EDIT: Above is the original comment. I've had a chance to look at some more stuff closer up and... ok this guy is impressive. Quick feet, makes people miss, doesn't give up on plays (FAU was down to OU 59-0 and he was still playing hard) good vision, I only saw 1 mistake and that's probably due to the poor blocking he's had to deal with on that team, so when good blocking actually happened, it caught him off guard. He might be my #2 or #3 guy right now.

Alex Barnes (added 3/2) - One of the better receiving backs in the draft, maybe even the best. Good speed, good quickness, patient when he needs to be, explosive when he can be. Knows how to follow his blocks. The issue is that he doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing, but he's also not really bad at any one thing either. He takes what's given to him. His highlights show a lot of long runs where he's untouched, so that's a bad sign. I didn't find any spots in his film where he made people miss at the line of scrimmage, or make small moves to gain an extra 2-3 yards when guys are draped all over him. Kind of a red flag, but a good starting point so far.

Ryquell Armstead (added 3/2) - Powerful downhill runner. Really high motor guy who is good at protecting the ball, has quick feet. Doesn't catch the ball very well, so right now he's only good as the kind of guy who could spell a starter. If a team wants to carry the ball 25-30 times a game, Ryquell could be someone to get the ball for 5-10 of those touches. Maybe even the goal line back?

Jordan Scarlett (added 3/2) - Another back who is good-not-great in any one area. Great feet and good vision, gives him a chance to make the roster and even share some carries with the 1st team offense. Zone runner who is great at protecting the ball. Would fit well in a zone blocking scheme.

LJ Scott (added 3/2) - This might be one of the more intriguing players in the bunch. He lowers his hips very well (hard to find) and has some nifty moves in space. He also follows his blocks very well. I absolutely loved what I saw out of this guy..... HOWEVER...... he had poor vision. Several times in the zone blocking schemes he either wasn't patient enough, or didn't see the interior hole, or exterior lanes, etc. He needs to be coached up in a big way. I wouldn't expect him to be a starter in 2019. He NEEDS to go to a good situation, or he'll fade in irrelevancy.

James Williams (added 3/2) - Great hands out of the backfield, 3:2 ratio on runs to catches. He has great quickness and good vision, didn't sink his hips very well. I didn't like his ability as a between-the-tackles runner, but I very much liked what I saw for his ability to catch out of the backfield. This is a promising 3rd down back who could be a James White type guy. Really depends where he ends up.

==========================================================================

PROBABLY NOT'S (Has Some Talent, Missing Too Many Pieces)

Darrell Henderson - I watched this beast of a RB play on a few Saturdays by accident. When he did, I thought to myself "wow, he's like a smaller Fournette". Guy has size and speed. But then watching the tape I noticed a few things; He doesn't make people miss right next to him, only in open space. He always carries the ball in 1 hand, never switching it around and keeping it away from defenders. He's really good in certain situations, but never great. I think his performance isn't being dissected enough. His stats came on big runs, but when the blocking wasn't there he wasn't able to make people miss and get the necessary 3-4 yards on crucial downs. Once again, I think we have a power runner who NEED to go to a power system or else he won't be able to produce. He's worth a late 1st to some, but really he's a mid 2nd at best, and that's if he's in the right system. This is the kind of guy who would start off the year looking like a stud (TRich), only to disappear by the end of this or next season. EDIT: Just watched more. I saw him get DESTROYED by a cornerback in open space... that's not good. His big runs are where he's untouched. I watched him run a sweep that's supposed to go outside, but he chose to cut back inside for ??? reason and he got clobbered by 2 defenders. Oh god, it's so bad. It's all so bad. This guy is fools gold. Yeah, I'm moving him down to the "Probabaly Not" section.

Benny Snell - I wanted to like this guy. I came into the tape rooting for him, and just came away unimpressed. He's a zone runner with good hips, but he doesn't yet have the quickness to make people miss consistently. With good coaching, this guy could be a really good RB in 1-2 years. He's a project pick at best, and he HAS to be picked to a zone running team. He can't catch out of the backfield... so that's bad... he's touched the ball 800 times but only 29 catches.... yikes.

Damien Harris (added 2/27) - I forgot this guy. I had him in my list and glossed over it. Here's what I like: He runs the play that's called and gets what's available to him. Here's what I don't like about Harris: He gets what's available to him. In all his success, the blocking allowed for him to shine. He didn't have to worry much about linemen making a play or linebackers filling a hole. He was able to make some nice moves and nice cuts in open space, but that's not even 5% of a RBs success over time in the NFL. There's more to be desired, so for now he sits in this group. EDIT: Watched more... not impressed. Most of his highlights are untouched runs with great blocking. I watched several game tapes where he simply cannot create space, makes a bad read, looks helpless if the blocking isn't there. This is the kind of guy that could win the starting role in the NFL and has a few good games because of blocking. Everyone loves him and calls me a dope (a-la Jordan Howard, who I warned about several times). This is that guy.

David Montgomery - I've said it before and I'll say it again; This is the most over-rated RB in the last 5 years. He isn't special. He's a power runner with great hands out of the backfield, so that's nice. He doesn't sink his hips, he runs upright, he carries the ball in the same arm no matter which side of the field he's on (so it's always in harms way, but also gives a clue that he's uncoachable). If he's draft to the Ravens and is only asked to run straight forward, yeah he's worth a 1st round pick to some people. Not me, but some people. EDIT: I have no idea why people like him. I just watched more of his film and I can't figure it out. He's slow behind the line, he can't create space, he's so upright.... ugh. When he catches the ball at full speed in open space, yeah he looks pretty good, and that's probably the part people are looking at. But that's not what a RB does. I moved him down to my "Probably Not" category. He's just so bad.

Travis Homer, Qadree Ollison (added 3/2) - Ollison (Not bad, not great. Looked like a product of the system.) Homer (Nice moves here and there, looks good in open space, but god-awful vision. If you're a zone runner and you can't see the holes in the line, then you won't last long)

==========================================================================

DEFINITELY NOT'S (Won't Succeed, No Matter What)

Tony Pollard - He's listed as a RB and showed some great zone skills, but mostly played in the slot or out wide, a-la Nyhiem Hines. I don't know what to make of him yet. He could be good if he went to the right system, but it's too hard to tell atm. I want no part as of now. EDIT: He's not a RB. Gimmicky player. No thanks.

Justice Hill, Bryce Love, Dexter Williams - No. No to all these guys. They are zone runners without the tools necessary to be zone runners. Dexter Williams in particular I think is the worst of this group. He has no skills, just runs fast, then brags like he's the greatest to ever play the game. He's going to get a wake up call. Bryce Love is also a speed guy and nothing more. Speed guys can be successful at the college level, but are almost never successful at the NFL level.

Rodney Anderson - I have to give this guy his own segment since so many people are clamoring for him. I don't get it, either. He's had 3 season-ending injuries in 4 years as a college athlete. He follows his blocks and gets what is given to him. He doesn't create space. He sometimes carries the ball in the wrong hand. Did I mention that he gets hurt all the time? He runs like he has popsicle sticks for legs. What is there to like?

Trayveon Williams - The only power runner at the bottom of this list. He could be something like a Jeremy Langford. He'll show a spark and be worth a 1st rounder real quick, but then fizzle out and disappear. Worth a late flyer just for the sake of trading him later.

Mike Weber, Nick Brossette, Alex Mattison, Karan Higdon, Jalin Moore (added 3/2) - Moore (terrible decisions, bad vision, can't catch) Higdon (Can't catch, played in a well-coached system to make him look better than he is) Mattison (Probably should have stayed in college 1 more year. Very raw, won't excel in the NFL unless he's coached up a TON, I don't see it) Brossette (Powerful runner but only gets what's given to him. Not a starter) Mike Weber (Gets what is given to him and nothing more, product of a system)

===============================================

And that does it for now. If you look at the history of RBs Pre-draft and then 2-3 years later, you'll notice a pattern that 1-2 guys near the top succeeded, most are still milling around, 1 guy out-performs out of nowhere, and the rest disappear. I think my rankings are similar to that. Post your feedback, I'm always up for conversation.
When will we get the 2nd installment?
12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 9
QB Allen/Tubisky/Lock
RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

12 tm PPR 1.5 for TE Superflex start 2 TE start 12
QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02

Life of Pablo
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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby Life of Pablo » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:14 am

briank wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:59 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:18 pm I might as well put my money where my mouth is. I've been outspoken several times here before, but I've never given my RB analysis until AFTER the draft because owners in my league would otherwise steal my players. Well, I've decided that I'm just going to deal with that this year, and give you my 2019 review right now.

For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.

What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.

So without further ado, here are my rankings. I'm going to give 5 tiers: Must have's, Should be's, Could be's, Probably not's, and Definitely not's. The tiers aren't ranked in order. I'm not calling Holyfield better than Jacobs, for example. They are just in the same tier as of right now.

========================================================
MUST HAVE'S (Success No Matter Where He's Drafted)

Miles Sanders - He's my highest ranked RB so far and it's not even close. He's a good 20% better than any other RB I ranked in this class. He has amazing body control, is shifty, can make defenders miss (and by this, I mean make them mess when they are right next to him, which is rare), is patient with his blocks, and has great vision. What gives me some concern is that his run to catch ratio is 10-1. Ideally you'd want a back who has a 4-1 ratio because they would be able to be on the field for all 3 downs. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though, it just wasn't a positive. He's also only touched the ball around 350 times total. There's a ton of tread on those tires, so I expect him to have a long and great career. He's my 1 and only sure-thing in this draft, so far. In comparison to last year, he would have been my 2nd highest rated RB. Sanders is primarily a zone runner in college but I believe he can succeed in any scheme.

I gotta post a video. Just WOW on this kid. You can literally take ANY game film and watch it and Sanders will do something amazing at some point. In the following video, Sanders will make amazing plays vs Wisconsin at 1:02, 2:44, and 5:20.

1:02 - He is running zone read from inside out. The inside A & B gaps are not there. He waits for blocking to occur outside instead of pushing for yards on a crucial down. He avoids 2 tackles and then hurdles a defender to make sure he secures a 1st down. Wow. This was only a 7 yard gain but it kept the offense on the field for another set of downs. It's plays like this that NFL teams need to improve their defense (yes, improve the defense by keeping the offense on the field).

2:44 - Inside zone. His incredible vision sees an opening about to occur and he makes the cut as it's happening. He finds himself surrounded by 3 defenders (pause it at 3:02) and makes a second cut to the outside to avoid everyone, outrunning defenders to the edge to make a great gain.

5:20 - This is more of a showcase of his vision than anything else. Another zone play, and a lot of RBs would take the easy way by running to the edge which is free and clear of defenders. Sanders is patient and waits for that extra split second for the hole to open up and he hits it hard. Makes another bonus move later on to gain an extra 15 yards after a forced miss tackle. God this guy is good.



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SHOULD BE'S (Success In Any System & Good Coaching)

Elijah Holyfield - This is the only other runner in the entire draft who can sink his hips like Sanders can, though not as well. He is a great zone RB and I also believe he can succeed in any scheme he's draft into. However, I don't think he avoids contact nearly enough, which may make him more prone to injury. He also DOESN'T CATCH THE BALL EVER, which means he might not be a reliable every-down back. He might find himself in a timeshare as a result, maybe 2-1 at best. RBs who don't catch the ball as a collegiate usually don't do so well at the next level. It'll depend how hard of a worker he is. He would be my #6 or #7 guy if he was in last years draft. He's worth a mid-to-late 1st, given the right location.

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COULD BE'S (Has To Be Drafted To The Right Blocking Scheme)

Josh Jacobs - I love his power and quickness in short space. This is a power runner with great hands out of the backfield (my highest rated in this category). He can take contact very well, but seems to initiate it a bit much for my liking. A RBs ability to stay healthy and extend their career is a big deal, so Jacobs will need to learn how to avoid contact when necessary rather than plow through guys when given the chance. Maybe his vision is suspect. If that's the case, he'll have greater success if he's drafted to a power-scheme, like with Baltimore, Tampa Bay, & Seattle. I'd take him in the late 1st if this happened. Otherwise, I don't really want anything to do with him.

2:07 - Here is a video that makes me doubt him as a runner a little bit. 3rd & 3, this is a straight zone run play. Auburn has 7 in the box vs 6 blockers for 'bama, but the point of the play is to block the guy ahead of you and let the RB pick his spot and outrun to the corner. The WRs are purposely running go routes outside of the DBs to clear the outside. All Jacobs has to do is a pick a side and go, left or right. Inexplicably Jacobs chooses to run INSIDE........ INSIDE!!!!!!!!........ IN-F*&#*NG-SIDE........ and ends up running into his own guys and a pile of others, and fails to convert.

Don't see it? Pause the video at 2:07 and hold down the . key. . is slow motion forward, , is slow motion reverse. If you watch, it seems like he starts to go to the right, like he's made his decision already, but then notices the safety coming down so he decided the best course of action is to cut up the middle..... on a 6v7.... I don't get it.

He made several run plays like this. Dude has skills, which is why I believe he'd be great in a power system because he doesn't have to think, all he has to do is run where the play is designed for him to run. Cleveland switched to that mid-season, which is why Chubb did so well in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes the RB is a product of the system, and sometimes the system is the product of the RB. Jacobs would thrive if he were a product of the system.

SKIP TO 2:07


Myles Gaskin - I know. You might be thinking "WHO THE HELL IS MYLES GASKIN!?". Well lemme tell you what, this is the kind of guy you can draft in the 2nd or 3rd round and get yourself a starter almost immediately given the right system. We're had Tarik Cohen last year and James Conner the year before that. This years late-round pick is easily Myles Gaskins. He is a power runner with good quickness. He also has great hands and has been utilized somewhat to catch out the backfield. HOWEVER, he's touched the ball over 1000 times already, so his career may not last as long as others, but it does speak to his ability to stay healthy. You might be lucky enough to get him as late as the 3rd round. EDIT: I've researched a lot more of this guy and had over an hour to watch slow-motion film. I've cooled down a bit as I noticed his vision isn't as great as I once thought. There are times he made suspect decisions and gave up on plays before they developed. His greatest success came on power plays. I still think he can play in any system and is still a good bargain for a late rounder, but he won't be a stud. He's the kind of guy you draft late and then flip for a 1st later on.

Devin Singletary - This rating is probably the one that makes me the most nervous. He's a zone runner with great hips & his ability to avoid contact, but he's also played against smaller conferences his entire career, so some of the things he's done on tape just looks better as a result. However, I said the same about David Johnson, and Devin should be given credit for performing well at his level. He doesn't catch a lot out of the backfield, which will limit his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs. He could be good/useful in a timeshare on a zone-blocking scheme. If he goes to a power-team, he's going to be useless and I would avoid him at all costs. Otherwise, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round. EDIT: Above is the original comment. I've had a chance to look at some more stuff closer up and... ok this guy is impressive. Quick feet, makes people miss, doesn't give up on plays (FAU was down to OU 59-0 and he was still playing hard) good vision, I only saw 1 mistake and that's probably due to the poor blocking he's had to deal with on that team, so when good blocking actually happened, it caught him off guard. He might be my #2 or #3 guy right now.

Alex Barnes (added 3/2) - One of the better receiving backs in the draft, maybe even the best. Good speed, good quickness, patient when he needs to be, explosive when he can be. Knows how to follow his blocks. The issue is that he doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing, but he's also not really bad at any one thing either. He takes what's given to him. His highlights show a lot of long runs where he's untouched, so that's a bad sign. I didn't find any spots in his film where he made people miss at the line of scrimmage, or make small moves to gain an extra 2-3 yards when guys are draped all over him. Kind of a red flag, but a good starting point so far.

Ryquell Armstead (added 3/2) - Powerful downhill runner. Really high motor guy who is good at protecting the ball, has quick feet. Doesn't catch the ball very well, so right now he's only good as the kind of guy who could spell a starter. If a team wants to carry the ball 25-30 times a game, Ryquell could be someone to get the ball for 5-10 of those touches. Maybe even the goal line back?

Jordan Scarlett (added 3/2) - Another back who is good-not-great in any one area. Great feet and good vision, gives him a chance to make the roster and even share some carries with the 1st team offense. Zone runner who is great at protecting the ball. Would fit well in a zone blocking scheme.

LJ Scott (added 3/2) - This might be one of the more intriguing players in the bunch. He lowers his hips very well (hard to find) and has some nifty moves in space. He also follows his blocks very well. I absolutely loved what I saw out of this guy..... HOWEVER...... he had poor vision. Several times in the zone blocking schemes he either wasn't patient enough, or didn't see the interior hole, or exterior lanes, etc. He needs to be coached up in a big way. I wouldn't expect him to be a starter in 2019. He NEEDS to go to a good situation, or he'll fade in irrelevancy.

James Williams (added 3/2) - Great hands out of the backfield, 3:2 ratio on runs to catches. He has great quickness and good vision, didn't sink his hips very well. I didn't like his ability as a between-the-tackles runner, but I very much liked what I saw for his ability to catch out of the backfield. This is a promising 3rd down back who could be a James White type guy. Really depends where he ends up.

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PROBABLY NOT'S (Has Some Talent, Missing Too Many Pieces)

Darrell Henderson - I watched this beast of a RB play on a few Saturdays by accident. When he did, I thought to myself "wow, he's like a smaller Fournette". Guy has size and speed. But then watching the tape I noticed a few things; He doesn't make people miss right next to him, only in open space. He always carries the ball in 1 hand, never switching it around and keeping it away from defenders. He's really good in certain situations, but never great. I think his performance isn't being dissected enough. His stats came on big runs, but when the blocking wasn't there he wasn't able to make people miss and get the necessary 3-4 yards on crucial downs. Once again, I think we have a power runner who NEED to go to a power system or else he won't be able to produce. He's worth a late 1st to some, but really he's a mid 2nd at best, and that's if he's in the right system. This is the kind of guy who would start off the year looking like a stud (TRich), only to disappear by the end of this or next season. EDIT: Just watched more. I saw him get DESTROYED by a cornerback in open space... that's not good. His big runs are where he's untouched. I watched him run a sweep that's supposed to go outside, but he chose to cut back inside for ??? reason and he got clobbered by 2 defenders. Oh god, it's so bad. It's all so bad. This guy is fools gold. Yeah, I'm moving him down to the "Probabaly Not" section.

Benny Snell - I wanted to like this guy. I came into the tape rooting for him, and just came away unimpressed. He's a zone runner with good hips, but he doesn't yet have the quickness to make people miss consistently. With good coaching, this guy could be a really good RB in 1-2 years. He's a project pick at best, and he HAS to be picked to a zone running team. He can't catch out of the backfield... so that's bad... he's touched the ball 800 times but only 29 catches.... yikes.

Damien Harris (added 2/27) - I forgot this guy. I had him in my list and glossed over it. Here's what I like: He runs the play that's called and gets what's available to him. Here's what I don't like about Harris: He gets what's available to him. In all his success, the blocking allowed for him to shine. He didn't have to worry much about linemen making a play or linebackers filling a hole. He was able to make some nice moves and nice cuts in open space, but that's not even 5% of a RBs success over time in the NFL. There's more to be desired, so for now he sits in this group. EDIT: Watched more... not impressed. Most of his highlights are untouched runs with great blocking. I watched several game tapes where he simply cannot create space, makes a bad read, looks helpless if the blocking isn't there. This is the kind of guy that could win the starting role in the NFL and has a few good games because of blocking. Everyone loves him and calls me a dope (a-la Jordan Howard, who I warned about several times). This is that guy.

David Montgomery - I've said it before and I'll say it again; This is the most over-rated RB in the last 5 years. He isn't special. He's a power runner with great hands out of the backfield, so that's nice. He doesn't sink his hips, he runs upright, he carries the ball in the same arm no matter which side of the field he's on (so it's always in harms way, but also gives a clue that he's uncoachable). If he's draft to the Ravens and is only asked to run straight forward, yeah he's worth a 1st round pick to some people. Not me, but some people. EDIT: I have no idea why people like him. I just watched more of his film and I can't figure it out. He's slow behind the line, he can't create space, he's so upright.... ugh. When he catches the ball at full speed in open space, yeah he looks pretty good, and that's probably the part people are looking at. But that's not what a RB does. I moved him down to my "Probably Not" category. He's just so bad.

Travis Homer, Qadree Ollison (added 3/2) - Ollison (Not bad, not great. Looked like a product of the system.) Homer (Nice moves here and there, looks good in open space, but god-awful vision. If you're a zone runner and you can't see the holes in the line, then you won't last long)

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DEFINITELY NOT'S (Won't Succeed, No Matter What)

Tony Pollard - He's listed as a RB and showed some great zone skills, but mostly played in the slot or out wide, a-la Nyhiem Hines. I don't know what to make of him yet. He could be good if he went to the right system, but it's too hard to tell atm. I want no part as of now. EDIT: He's not a RB. Gimmicky player. No thanks.

Justice Hill, Bryce Love, Dexter Williams - No. No to all these guys. They are zone runners without the tools necessary to be zone runners. Dexter Williams in particular I think is the worst of this group. He has no skills, just runs fast, then brags like he's the greatest to ever play the game. He's going to get a wake up call. Bryce Love is also a speed guy and nothing more. Speed guys can be successful at the college level, but are almost never successful at the NFL level.

Rodney Anderson - I have to give this guy his own segment since so many people are clamoring for him. I don't get it, either. He's had 3 season-ending injuries in 4 years as a college athlete. He follows his blocks and gets what is given to him. He doesn't create space. He sometimes carries the ball in the wrong hand. Did I mention that he gets hurt all the time? He runs like he has popsicle sticks for legs. What is there to like?

Trayveon Williams - The only power runner at the bottom of this list. He could be something like a Jeremy Langford. He'll show a spark and be worth a 1st rounder real quick, but then fizzle out and disappear. Worth a late flyer just for the sake of trading him later.

Mike Weber, Nick Brossette, Alex Mattison, Karan Higdon, Jalin Moore (added 3/2) - Moore (terrible decisions, bad vision, can't catch) Higdon (Can't catch, played in a well-coached system to make him look better than he is) Mattison (Probably should have stayed in college 1 more year. Very raw, won't excel in the NFL unless he's coached up a TON, I don't see it) Brossette (Powerful runner but only gets what's given to him. Not a starter) Mike Weber (Gets what is given to him and nothing more, product of a system)

===============================================

And that does it for now. If you look at the history of RBs Pre-draft and then 2-3 years later, you'll notice a pattern that 1-2 guys near the top succeeded, most are still milling around, 1 guy out-performs out of nowhere, and the rest disappear. I think my rankings are similar to that. Post your feedback, I'm always up for conversation.
When will we get the 2nd installment?
That was a lot of scrolling just to post one sentence. 8-)
10-team standard, 18-man rosters (plus K/D + 1 IR + 2 TAXI)
1QB | 2RB | 2WR | 1TE | 1FLEX
2021: 8-6, 5th (AP: 76-50 / 60.3%, 3rd) ||| Runner-up
2022: 5-1, 2nd (AP: 47-7 / 87.0%, 1st)

QB: Hurts, Russ, Carr
RB: Chubb, Pierce, Swift, JRob, D'Ernest, Ford
WR: Diggs, Evans, GDavis, Nuk, Keenan, Hollywood, Mooney, CSamuel, Doubs
TE: Kelce, Dulcich, Fant
2023 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
2024 Picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th

briank
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Re: 2019 Rookie RB Review By MEuRaH / The Other RB Guru / ...... Updated (3/02)

Postby briank » Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:17 am

Life of Pablo wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:14 am
briank wrote: Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:59 am
dlf_mikeh wrote: Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:18 pm I might as well put my money where my mouth is. I've been outspoken several times here before, but I've never given my RB analysis until AFTER the draft because owners in my league would otherwise steal my players. Well, I've decided that I'm just going to deal with that this year, and give you my 2019 review right now.

For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.

What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.

So without further ado, here are my rankings. I'm going to give 5 tiers: Must have's, Should be's, Could be's, Probably not's, and Definitely not's. The tiers aren't ranked in order. I'm not calling Holyfield better than Jacobs, for example. They are just in the same tier as of right now.

========================================================
MUST HAVE'S (Success No Matter Where He's Drafted)

Miles Sanders - He's my highest ranked RB so far and it's not even close. He's a good 20% better than any other RB I ranked in this class. He has amazing body control, is shifty, can make defenders miss (and by this, I mean make them mess when they are right next to him, which is rare), is patient with his blocks, and has great vision. What gives me some concern is that his run to catch ratio is 10-1. Ideally you'd want a back who has a 4-1 ratio because they would be able to be on the field for all 3 downs. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though, it just wasn't a positive. He's also only touched the ball around 350 times total. There's a ton of tread on those tires, so I expect him to have a long and great career. He's my 1 and only sure-thing in this draft, so far. In comparison to last year, he would have been my 2nd highest rated RB. Sanders is primarily a zone runner in college but I believe he can succeed in any scheme.

I gotta post a video. Just WOW on this kid. You can literally take ANY game film and watch it and Sanders will do something amazing at some point. In the following video, Sanders will make amazing plays vs Wisconsin at 1:02, 2:44, and 5:20.

1:02 - He is running zone read from inside out. The inside A & B gaps are not there. He waits for blocking to occur outside instead of pushing for yards on a crucial down. He avoids 2 tackles and then hurdles a defender to make sure he secures a 1st down. Wow. This was only a 7 yard gain but it kept the offense on the field for another set of downs. It's plays like this that NFL teams need to improve their defense (yes, improve the defense by keeping the offense on the field).

2:44 - Inside zone. His incredible vision sees an opening about to occur and he makes the cut as it's happening. He finds himself surrounded by 3 defenders (pause it at 3:02) and makes a second cut to the outside to avoid everyone, outrunning defenders to the edge to make a great gain.

5:20 - This is more of a showcase of his vision than anything else. Another zone play, and a lot of RBs would take the easy way by running to the edge which is free and clear of defenders. Sanders is patient and waits for that extra split second for the hole to open up and he hits it hard. Makes another bonus move later on to gain an extra 15 yards after a forced miss tackle. God this guy is good.



==========================================================================

SHOULD BE'S (Success In Any System & Good Coaching)

Elijah Holyfield - This is the only other runner in the entire draft who can sink his hips like Sanders can, though not as well. He is a great zone RB and I also believe he can succeed in any scheme he's draft into. However, I don't think he avoids contact nearly enough, which may make him more prone to injury. He also DOESN'T CATCH THE BALL EVER, which means he might not be a reliable every-down back. He might find himself in a timeshare as a result, maybe 2-1 at best. RBs who don't catch the ball as a collegiate usually don't do so well at the next level. It'll depend how hard of a worker he is. He would be my #6 or #7 guy if he was in last years draft. He's worth a mid-to-late 1st, given the right location.

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COULD BE'S (Has To Be Drafted To The Right Blocking Scheme)

Josh Jacobs - I love his power and quickness in short space. This is a power runner with great hands out of the backfield (my highest rated in this category). He can take contact very well, but seems to initiate it a bit much for my liking. A RBs ability to stay healthy and extend their career is a big deal, so Jacobs will need to learn how to avoid contact when necessary rather than plow through guys when given the chance. Maybe his vision is suspect. If that's the case, he'll have greater success if he's drafted to a power-scheme, like with Baltimore, Tampa Bay, & Seattle. I'd take him in the late 1st if this happened. Otherwise, I don't really want anything to do with him.

2:07 - Here is a video that makes me doubt him as a runner a little bit. 3rd & 3, this is a straight zone run play. Auburn has 7 in the box vs 6 blockers for 'bama, but the point of the play is to block the guy ahead of you and let the RB pick his spot and outrun to the corner. The WRs are purposely running go routes outside of the DBs to clear the outside. All Jacobs has to do is a pick a side and go, left or right. Inexplicably Jacobs chooses to run INSIDE........ INSIDE!!!!!!!!........ IN-F*&#*NG-SIDE........ and ends up running into his own guys and a pile of others, and fails to convert.

Don't see it? Pause the video at 2:07 and hold down the . key. . is slow motion forward, , is slow motion reverse. If you watch, it seems like he starts to go to the right, like he's made his decision already, but then notices the safety coming down so he decided the best course of action is to cut up the middle..... on a 6v7.... I don't get it.

He made several run plays like this. Dude has skills, which is why I believe he'd be great in a power system because he doesn't have to think, all he has to do is run where the play is designed for him to run. Cleveland switched to that mid-season, which is why Chubb did so well in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes the RB is a product of the system, and sometimes the system is the product of the RB. Jacobs would thrive if he were a product of the system.

SKIP TO 2:07


Myles Gaskin - I know. You might be thinking "WHO THE HELL IS MYLES GASKIN!?". Well lemme tell you what, this is the kind of guy you can draft in the 2nd or 3rd round and get yourself a starter almost immediately given the right system. We're had Tarik Cohen last year and James Conner the year before that. This years late-round pick is easily Myles Gaskins. He is a power runner with good quickness. He also has great hands and has been utilized somewhat to catch out the backfield. HOWEVER, he's touched the ball over 1000 times already, so his career may not last as long as others, but it does speak to his ability to stay healthy. You might be lucky enough to get him as late as the 3rd round. EDIT: I've researched a lot more of this guy and had over an hour to watch slow-motion film. I've cooled down a bit as I noticed his vision isn't as great as I once thought. There are times he made suspect decisions and gave up on plays before they developed. His greatest success came on power plays. I still think he can play in any system and is still a good bargain for a late rounder, but he won't be a stud. He's the kind of guy you draft late and then flip for a 1st later on.

Devin Singletary - This rating is probably the one that makes me the most nervous. He's a zone runner with great hips & his ability to avoid contact, but he's also played against smaller conferences his entire career, so some of the things he's done on tape just looks better as a result. However, I said the same about David Johnson, and Devin should be given credit for performing well at his level. He doesn't catch a lot out of the backfield, which will limit his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs. He could be good/useful in a timeshare on a zone-blocking scheme. If he goes to a power-team, he's going to be useless and I would avoid him at all costs. Otherwise, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round. EDIT: Above is the original comment. I've had a chance to look at some more stuff closer up and... ok this guy is impressive. Quick feet, makes people miss, doesn't give up on plays (FAU was down to OU 59-0 and he was still playing hard) good vision, I only saw 1 mistake and that's probably due to the poor blocking he's had to deal with on that team, so when good blocking actually happened, it caught him off guard. He might be my #2 or #3 guy right now.

Alex Barnes (added 3/2) - One of the better receiving backs in the draft, maybe even the best. Good speed, good quickness, patient when he needs to be, explosive when he can be. Knows how to follow his blocks. The issue is that he doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing, but he's also not really bad at any one thing either. He takes what's given to him. His highlights show a lot of long runs where he's untouched, so that's a bad sign. I didn't find any spots in his film where he made people miss at the line of scrimmage, or make small moves to gain an extra 2-3 yards when guys are draped all over him. Kind of a red flag, but a good starting point so far.

Ryquell Armstead (added 3/2) - Powerful downhill runner. Really high motor guy who is good at protecting the ball, has quick feet. Doesn't catch the ball very well, so right now he's only good as the kind of guy who could spell a starter. If a team wants to carry the ball 25-30 times a game, Ryquell could be someone to get the ball for 5-10 of those touches. Maybe even the goal line back?

Jordan Scarlett (added 3/2) - Another back who is good-not-great in any one area. Great feet and good vision, gives him a chance to make the roster and even share some carries with the 1st team offense. Zone runner who is great at protecting the ball. Would fit well in a zone blocking scheme.

LJ Scott (added 3/2) - This might be one of the more intriguing players in the bunch. He lowers his hips very well (hard to find) and has some nifty moves in space. He also follows his blocks very well. I absolutely loved what I saw out of this guy..... HOWEVER...... he had poor vision. Several times in the zone blocking schemes he either wasn't patient enough, or didn't see the interior hole, or exterior lanes, etc. He needs to be coached up in a big way. I wouldn't expect him to be a starter in 2019. He NEEDS to go to a good situation, or he'll fade in irrelevancy.

James Williams (added 3/2) - Great hands out of the backfield, 3:2 ratio on runs to catches. He has great quickness and good vision, didn't sink his hips very well. I didn't like his ability as a between-the-tackles runner, but I very much liked what I saw for his ability to catch out of the backfield. This is a promising 3rd down back who could be a James White type guy. Really depends where he ends up.

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PROBABLY NOT'S (Has Some Talent, Missing Too Many Pieces)

Darrell Henderson - I watched this beast of a RB play on a few Saturdays by accident. When he did, I thought to myself "wow, he's like a smaller Fournette". Guy has size and speed. But then watching the tape I noticed a few things; He doesn't make people miss right next to him, only in open space. He always carries the ball in 1 hand, never switching it around and keeping it away from defenders. He's really good in certain situations, but never great. I think his performance isn't being dissected enough. His stats came on big runs, but when the blocking wasn't there he wasn't able to make people miss and get the necessary 3-4 yards on crucial downs. Once again, I think we have a power runner who NEED to go to a power system or else he won't be able to produce. He's worth a late 1st to some, but really he's a mid 2nd at best, and that's if he's in the right system. This is the kind of guy who would start off the year looking like a stud (TRich), only to disappear by the end of this or next season. EDIT: Just watched more. I saw him get DESTROYED by a cornerback in open space... that's not good. His big runs are where he's untouched. I watched him run a sweep that's supposed to go outside, but he chose to cut back inside for ??? reason and he got clobbered by 2 defenders. Oh god, it's so bad. It's all so bad. This guy is fools gold. Yeah, I'm moving him down to the "Probabaly Not" section.

Benny Snell - I wanted to like this guy. I came into the tape rooting for him, and just came away unimpressed. He's a zone runner with good hips, but he doesn't yet have the quickness to make people miss consistently. With good coaching, this guy could be a really good RB in 1-2 years. He's a project pick at best, and he HAS to be picked to a zone running team. He can't catch out of the backfield... so that's bad... he's touched the ball 800 times but only 29 catches.... yikes.

Damien Harris (added 2/27) - I forgot this guy. I had him in my list and glossed over it. Here's what I like: He runs the play that's called and gets what's available to him. Here's what I don't like about Harris: He gets what's available to him. In all his success, the blocking allowed for him to shine. He didn't have to worry much about linemen making a play or linebackers filling a hole. He was able to make some nice moves and nice cuts in open space, but that's not even 5% of a RBs success over time in the NFL. There's more to be desired, so for now he sits in this group. EDIT: Watched more... not impressed. Most of his highlights are untouched runs with great blocking. I watched several game tapes where he simply cannot create space, makes a bad read, looks helpless if the blocking isn't there. This is the kind of guy that could win the starting role in the NFL and has a few good games because of blocking. Everyone loves him and calls me a dope (a-la Jordan Howard, who I warned about several times). This is that guy.

David Montgomery - I've said it before and I'll say it again; This is the most over-rated RB in the last 5 years. He isn't special. He's a power runner with great hands out of the backfield, so that's nice. He doesn't sink his hips, he runs upright, he carries the ball in the same arm no matter which side of the field he's on (so it's always in harms way, but also gives a clue that he's uncoachable). If he's draft to the Ravens and is only asked to run straight forward, yeah he's worth a 1st round pick to some people. Not me, but some people. EDIT: I have no idea why people like him. I just watched more of his film and I can't figure it out. He's slow behind the line, he can't create space, he's so upright.... ugh. When he catches the ball at full speed in open space, yeah he looks pretty good, and that's probably the part people are looking at. But that's not what a RB does. I moved him down to my "Probably Not" category. He's just so bad.

Travis Homer, Qadree Ollison (added 3/2) - Ollison (Not bad, not great. Looked like a product of the system.) Homer (Nice moves here and there, looks good in open space, but god-awful vision. If you're a zone runner and you can't see the holes in the line, then you won't last long)

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DEFINITELY NOT'S (Won't Succeed, No Matter What)

Tony Pollard - He's listed as a RB and showed some great zone skills, but mostly played in the slot or out wide, a-la Nyhiem Hines. I don't know what to make of him yet. He could be good if he went to the right system, but it's too hard to tell atm. I want no part as of now. EDIT: He's not a RB. Gimmicky player. No thanks.

Justice Hill, Bryce Love, Dexter Williams - No. No to all these guys. They are zone runners without the tools necessary to be zone runners. Dexter Williams in particular I think is the worst of this group. He has no skills, just runs fast, then brags like he's the greatest to ever play the game. He's going to get a wake up call. Bryce Love is also a speed guy and nothing more. Speed guys can be successful at the college level, but are almost never successful at the NFL level.

Rodney Anderson - I have to give this guy his own segment since so many people are clamoring for him. I don't get it, either. He's had 3 season-ending injuries in 4 years as a college athlete. He follows his blocks and gets what is given to him. He doesn't create space. He sometimes carries the ball in the wrong hand. Did I mention that he gets hurt all the time? He runs like he has popsicle sticks for legs. What is there to like?

Trayveon Williams - The only power runner at the bottom of this list. He could be something like a Jeremy Langford. He'll show a spark and be worth a 1st rounder real quick, but then fizzle out and disappear. Worth a late flyer just for the sake of trading him later.

Mike Weber, Nick Brossette, Alex Mattison, Karan Higdon, Jalin Moore (added 3/2) - Moore (terrible decisions, bad vision, can't catch) Higdon (Can't catch, played in a well-coached system to make him look better than he is) Mattison (Probably should have stayed in college 1 more year. Very raw, won't excel in the NFL unless he's coached up a TON, I don't see it) Brossette (Powerful runner but only gets what's given to him. Not a starter) Mike Weber (Gets what is given to him and nothing more, product of a system)

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And that does it for now. If you look at the history of RBs Pre-draft and then 2-3 years later, you'll notice a pattern that 1-2 guys near the top succeeded, most are still milling around, 1 guy out-performs out of nowhere, and the rest disappear. I think my rankings are similar to that. Post your feedback, I'm always up for conversation.
When will we get the 2nd installment?
That was a lot of scrolling just to post one sentence. 8-)
Ditto.
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RB Mixon/Harris/Etienne
WR DJ Moore
TE Kelce/Irv
2022 1.06/1.09
2023 3x 1st

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Watson/Ryan
RB CMC/Zeke/Mixon/Sanders
WR Evans/Godwin/Robinson/Golladay/Thielen/Lockett/Fuller
TE Kittle/Waller/L. Thomas

12 tm tiered PPR Superflex start 10
QB Mahomes/Murray/Brady
RB CMC
WR Adams/Hill/Diggs/AJ Brown/Aiyuk/Woods/R. Moore
TE Kelce/Kittle/Njoku
2x 2023 1sts

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QB Herbert/Tua/Lawrence/Fields
RB Harris/Etienne
WR Jefferson/Deebo/Lamb/DSmith/Sutton/Juedy/Kirk/E. Moore/R. Moore
TE Kittle/Pitts/Waller/Fant/Njoku
2022 1.01/1.12/2.02


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