Why do we value in draft picks?

[GridironGuerilla]

Hopefully stubborn and lazy owners would come around to valuing players like this in a group setting like this, as the data would be stronger with more people contributing together in this better method.

1. Not sure I'd consider owners who adopt the former method lazy. Your target audience for this "awakening" are in this forum and so would represent the segment of owners who are the opposite of lazy in the context of dynasty. As for changing the minds of owners who are actually lazy? Good luck with that.

2. Your approach to player valuation being a "better method" and be and is being argued right here in this thread by experienced members of the forum dynasty community. Just sayin'.

I think you are over complicating things, but that being said whatever method you adopt to help you determine player value is yours to own. This is an extremely subjective process and finding a universally accepted way to do so is a fools errand imo. That's what trade calculators are for.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Any linear ranking system as you are proposing is terrible for a global method of valuing players because there could be a gigantic gap in value between two players ranked directly next to each other. Conversely, you could have 2 players separated by 10 or 20 spots that are virtually identical in value.

You aren’t understanding. This method(Startup ADP ranking) is still SUBSTANTIALLY more granular, specific, and accurate than valuing players based on rookie picks. It is also less subject to the effect of subjectivity on the data. The only argument against it so far in this thread is that it’s just easier to be less accurate, and more subjective in our player valuation. To be lazy. That is a bad argument

I think you're the one who is not understanding, lol... None of what you wrote has anything to do with what you quoted.

[Elroypedro]

Hopefully stubborn and lazy owners would come around to valuing players like this in a group setting like this, as the data would be stronger with more people contributing together in this better method.

1. Not sure I'd consider owners who adopt the former method lazy. Your target audience for this "awakening" are in this forum and so would represent the segment of owners who are the opposite of lazy in the context of dynasty. As for changing the minds of owners who are actually lazy? Good luck with that.

2. Your approach to player valuation being a "better method" and be and is being argued right here in this thread by experienced members of the forum dynasty community. Just sayin'.

I think you are over complicating things, but that being said whatever method you adopt to help you determine player value is yours to own. This is an extremely subjective process and finding a universally accepted way to do so is a fools errand imo. That's what trade calculators are for.

The only argument against this is that it isn’t as easy. Well it isn’t hard, and it is much, much more accurate and useful. So we should do it

[Elroypedro]

Any linear ranking system as you are proposing is terrible for a global method of valuing players because there could be a gigantic gap in value between two players ranked directly next to each other. Conversely, you could have 2 players separated by 10 or 20 spots that are virtually identical in value.

You aren’t understanding. This method(Startup ADP ranking) is still SUBSTANTIALLY more granular, specific, and accurate than valuing players based on rookie picks. It is also less subject to the effect of subjectivity on the data. The only argument against it so far in this thread is that it’s just easier to be less accurate, and more subjective in our player valuation. To be lazy. That is a bad argument

I think you're the one who is not understanding, lol... None of what you wrote has anything to do with what you quoted.

Yes it 100% does

[Dynasty DeLorean]

You realize you can't trade startup picks for players, right?

[M-Dub]

If I understand correctly, what the OP is suggesting is that everyone meticulously curate a ranked list of 200-300 NFL players (go ahead and double that if you’re one of those IDP weirdos) and keep it continuously updated so that when a stranger on a message board asks about a player’s value, we can all just spit out a number and move on to the next thread.

That sounds like a blast! Where do I sign up?

[Elroypedro]

If I understand correctly, what the OP is suggesting is that everyone meticulously curate a ranked list of 200-300 NFL players (go ahead and double that if you’re one of those IDP weirdos) and keep it continuously updated so that when a stranger on a message board asks about a player’s value, we can all just spit out a number and move on to the next thread.

That sounds like a blast! Where do I sign up?

Go ahead and use DLF rankings. That’ll take you one minute to pull up. Spend a few minutes a day or every few days or week or so moving a few guys around. Literally this is as easy as you coming into this thread and posting here. Maybe an entire time investment of a few hours per year, if that.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

If I understand correctly, what the OP is suggesting is that everyone meticulously curate a ranked list of 200-300 NFL players (go ahead and double that if you’re one of those IDP weirdos) and keep it continuously updated so that when a stranger on a message board asks about a player’s value, we can all just spit out a number and move on to the next thread.

That sounds like a blast! Where do I sign up?

Which you then have to convert to rookie pick value anyway if you want to give any sort of meaningful advice to anyone who is asking.

Go ahead and use DLF rankings. That’ll take you one minute to pull up. Spend a few minutes a day or every few days or week or so moving a few guys around. Literally this is as easy as you coming into this thread and posting here. Maybe an entire time investment of a few hours per year, if that.

Why you gotta be so lazy MDub. Don't forget Superflex and TE premium rankings too, you bum.

[Elroypedro]

There really is a huge backlash to changing the ways of stubborn people, even if it would pay off an incredible amount for the very small effort it would take to do things better.

Anyways, here is another example:

Damien Williams is being drafted in general in the 5-6th round of startups. A few outliers are picking him as high as the 2nd and as late as the 8th from what I’ve seen. His range is mostly about 25-30 spots wide from about pick 45-70, with the outliers ignored. 25-30 spots.

I’ve seen his valuation run from multiple firsts to a mid 3rd, both outliers. Really his range has been from an early 1st to a late 2nd. That range could be 150 spots. Early 1st could easily be round 3-4, and a late 2nd rookie in ADP could easily be round 15+. 150+- spots.

Which is more accurate? Why the hell are we using draft picks to value players when it is such an abysmally inaccurate and broad way of doing so? And yes, I’ve heard the argument over and over and over and over again in this thread that it’s just easier. What a poor excuse, especially when it is just barely marginally easier

[Jigga94]

You realize you can't trade startup picks for players, right?

That's why all my offers have been getting declined

[FiremanEd]

Startup ADP is available for individuals who want to view it, and is a consensus of multiple mock drafts. If that is the optimal method of value for you, then feel free to use it. Outside of a startup, which is when most questions come given a Startup is once and at that point draft capital becomes the common currency by which you can associate all assets, it only makes sense to transition. Whether ADP or draft capital, opinions will vary, and I though it may seem more vague, the overall valuation should be similar. I don't see why you would convert to ADP when it isn't even something applicable to the league going forward...but it can also be done by anyone who prefers.

Keep in mind ADP is based on the highest opinion as well. As soon as a player has him 'top of board' that becomes his value in ADP. The other 11 people could have him 20 spots later for all you know.

[Elroypedro]

Startup ADP is available for individuals who want to view it, and is a consensus of multiple mock drafts. If that is the optimal method of value for you, then feel free to use it. Outside of a startup, which is when most questions come given a Startup is once and at that point draft capital becomes the common currency by which you can associate all assets, it only makes sense to transition. Whether ADP or draft capital, opinions will vary, and I though it may seem more vague, the overall opinions should be similar. I don't see why you would convert to ADP when it isn't even something applicable to the league going forward.

Because it is vastly more accurate, to the point that quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks is so inaccurate, so wildly subjective, that it is not just useless but counter productive in valuing players. It muddies waters and pulls player’s possible values in such extreme directions that just the act of quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks makes one worse at dynasty, period.

[FiremanEd]

Startup ADP is available for individuals who want to view it, and is a consensus of multiple mock drafts. If that is the optimal method of value for you, then feel free to use it. Outside of a startup, which is when most questions come given a Startup is once and at that point draft capital becomes the common currency by which you can associate all assets, it only makes sense to transition. Whether ADP or draft capital, opinions will vary, and I though it may seem more vague, the overall opinions should be similar. I don't see why you would convert to ADP when it isn't even something applicable to the league going forward.

Because it is vastly more accurate, to the point that quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks is so inaccurate, so wildly subjective, that it is not just useless but counter productive in valuing players. It muddies waters and pulls player’s possible values in such extreme directions that just the act of quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks makes one worse at dynasty, period.

How is valuing a players value in terms of rookie picks inaccurate when that is what they are traded for in all leagues? Nobody is trading players for startup picks (outside of during a startup). ADP is wildly subjective, and in fact takes the highest opinion of all drafters participating. If anything, it is less extreme.

I appreciate your passion, but cannot see eye to eye on your opinion here. ADP valuation method is available to you though, and that is what is most important. I do think you will find many who disagree with ADP as your gospel in trade negotiation though.

[Elroypedro]

Startup ADP is available for individuals who want to view it, and is a consensus of multiple mock drafts. If that is the optimal method of value for you, then feel free to use it. Outside of a startup, which is when most questions come given a Startup is once and at that point draft capital becomes the common currency by which you can associate all assets, it only makes sense to transition. Whether ADP or draft capital, opinions will vary, and I though it may seem more vague, the overall opinions should be similar. I don't see why you would convert to ADP when it isn't even something applicable to the league going forward.

Because it is vastly more accurate, to the point that quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks is so inaccurate, so wildly subjective, that it is not just useless but counter productive in valuing players. It muddies waters and pulls player’s possible values in such extreme directions that just the act of quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks makes one worse at dynasty, period.

How is valuing a players value in terms of rookie picks inaccurate when that is what they are traded for in all leagues? Nobody is trading players for startup picks (outside of during a startup). ADP is wildly subjective, and in fact takes the highest opinion of all drafters participating. If anything, it is less extreme.

I appreciate your passion, but cannot see eye to eye on your opinion here. ADP valuation method is available to you though, and that is what is most important. I do think you will find many who disagree with ADP as your gospel in trade negotiation though.

Valuing players in rookie picks is inherently vastly less accurate. There is no question about that. It is a fact

[jenkins.math]

Startup ADP is available for individuals who want to view it, and is a consensus of multiple mock drafts. If that is the optimal method of value for you, then feel free to use it. Outside of a startup, which is when most questions come given a Startup is once and at that point draft capital becomes the common currency by which you can associate all assets, it only makes sense to transition. Whether ADP or draft capital, opinions will vary, and I though it may seem more vague, the overall opinions should be similar. I don't see why you would convert to ADP when it isn't even something applicable to the league going forward.

Because it is vastly more accurate, to the point that quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks is so inaccurate, so wildly subjective, that it is not just useless but counter productive in valuing players. It muddies waters and pulls player’s possible values in such extreme directions that just the act of quoting player’s value in terms of rookie picks makes one worse at dynasty, period.

The old "I'm right and anybody who disagrees with me just isn't as smart as me" take.

You have zero statistical data to back up any argument you are making. It is all your opinion. You have nothing to show that using ADP to value players over any other method leads to greater success. So chill out and do what works for you.