Why do we value in draft picks?

[Elroypedro]

Simple question: why do we value dynasty players in terms of draft picks? Like “Lamar Miller is worth a mid 2nd.”

My proposal: just value dynasty assets(players and picks) in terms of startup rankings. Like “Lamar Miller is worth the 95th pick in a startup.”

At the same time, we could also say “the 2019 2.04 is worth the 95th pick in a startup.”[obviously not accurate but just an example] So anybody interested in valuing their players in terms of draft picks could easily do so.


This makes sense right?

[GridironGuerilla]

I think it's simply the fact that draft picks are the currency we work with as dynasty owners, and the farther away you get form your initial startup, the more abstract it becomes as a barometer of player value. I will often refer to a leagues startup when analyzing a players value, but as the years pass, I begin to think of it in terms of "would I rather have player X? Or a range of rookies that might be available in the incoming class at pick Y?" Sure, you could break it down based on startup ADP for any given year, I just think picks are a simpler value gauge.

[Elroypedro]

I think it's simply the fact that draft picks are the currency we work with as dynasty owners, and the farther away you get form your initial startup, the more abstract it becomes as a barometer of player value. I will often refer to a leagues startup when analyzing a players value, but as the years pass, I begin to think of it in terms of "would I rather have player X? Or a range of rookies that might be available in the incoming class at pick Y?" Sure, you could break it down based on startup ADP for any given year, I just think picks are a simpler value gauge.

See I think they are much more vague and complicated in that sense. Take any current ADP rankings and I wonder how two guys ranked directly next to each other can be quoted as one worth a late 1st and one a late 2nd? That seems completely arbitrary and stupid while just looking at(and debating and having slightly different) current startup ADP rankings tells a much better story and is a better indicator of relative value imo.

And, just also add in where this year’s and say next year’s rookie draft picks would be valued in that Startup ADP and voila, you could simply use that as value for draft picks much more easily and accessibly and accurately than everyone’s random subjective valuation in draft picks of each individual player.

[Elroypedro]

Example rankings:


Player A
Player B
Player C
Player D
Player E
Pick 1
Player F
Player G
Player H
Pick 2
Player I
Player J
Player K
Player L
Player M
Player N
Pick 3
Pick 4
Player O
Player P
Pick 5
Player Q
Player R
Player S
Player T

So Player H is the 8th ranked player and is worth somewhere between Pick 1 and Pick 2.

Just much, much better than random subjective guesses all over the map about value in draft picks

[Pac_Eddy]

That is a good way to communicate player values but good luck changing how crowds of people act.

I think GG is correct - rookie draft picks is the most common currency when trading players, so it's natural to use them as the value equivalent to veteran players.

[jenkins.math]

See I think they are much more vague and complicated in that sense. Take any current ADP rankings and I wonder how two guys ranked directly next to each other can be quoted as one worth a late 1st and one a late 2nd? That seems completely arbitrary and stupid while just looking at(and debating and having slightly different) current startup ADP rankings tells a much better story and is a better indicator of relative value imo.

And, just also add in where this year’s and say next year’s rookie draft picks would be valued in that Startup ADP and voila, you could simply use that as value for draft picks much more easily and accessibly and accurately than everyone’s random subjective valuation in draft picks of each individual player.

The problem I see with your thinking is that you can get everyone on the same page in terms of rankings. That's absolutely impossible and will never be done. People won't ever rank players the same and some are completely high on players while others think that player is terrible. Just go back to the James Conner threads of this year and you can see the wildly different values from person to person.

And that isn't even taking into consideration the way some view draft picks. While I think draft picks are obviously important in dynasty, I let mine go a lot easier than most in my league because I can guarantee the player I'm buying is an NFL contributor. Can't do that with picks.

It's just so much easier to say player x is worth a (insert pick here). Why? Because that's all that really matters when you're making a trade.

[moishetreats]

Your way, @Elroypedro, is twice as hard, IMO.

It's hard enough agreeing that Player X is worth Draft Pick Y.

For your conversion to work, we would need to agree that Player X is worth ADP Value A (which may or may not be the opinion of Player X's current owner) AND we would need to agree that Draft Pick Y is worth ADP Value B (which may or may not be the opinion of Draft Pick Y's current owner). And THEN we need to see if ADP Values A and B are even close to each other.

In other words, if I have a dime and you have two nickels, we would be foolish to convert both of them to Euros (where we might have different conversion rates) in order to make the exchange.

[moishetreats]

Another separate point: ADP can never account for the uniqueness of each league. It is simply an aggregate. That makes it inapplicable to a specific situation -- only a general guideline.

[Elroypedro]

See I think they are much more vague and complicated in that sense. Take any current ADP rankings and I wonder how two guys ranked directly next to each other can be quoted as one worth a late 1st and one a late 2nd? That seems completely arbitrary and stupid while just looking at(and debating and having slightly different) current startup ADP rankings tells a much better story and is a better indicator of relative value imo.

And, just also add in where this year’s and say next year’s rookie draft picks would be valued in that Startup ADP and voila, you could simply use that as value for draft picks much more easily and accessibly and accurately than everyone’s random subjective valuation in draft picks of each individual player.

The problem I see with your thinking is that you can get everyone on the same page in terms of rankings. That's absolutely impossible and will never be done. People won't ever rank players the same and some are completely high on players while others think that player is terrible. Just go back to the James Conner threads of this year and you can see the wildly different values from person to person.

And that isn't even taking into consideration the way some view draft picks. While I think draft picks are obviously important in dynasty, I let mine go a lot easier than most in my league because I can guarantee the player I'm buying is an NFL contributor. Can't do that with picks.

It's just so much easier to say player x is worth a (insert pick here). Why? Because that's all that really matters when you're making a trade.

Of course not everyone will agree and rankings are still subjective. But take this as an example:

James Washington has been quoted recently as being worth as much as a mid 1st and as late as a late 2nd. That could easily be 100-150 spots difference in overall startup rankings. Now, the range for those taking him in startups is probably more like 25-50 spots.

Why the huge difference and massive vagueness and range of the first method compared to the second?

I think because valuing players based on rookie picks is inherently lazy, sloppy, and inaccurate, whereas valuing players based on startup rankings is much more specific, granular, and accurate. Not perfect, still subjective, but imo MUCH better and more useful. As you say, valuing based on picks is easier, but it is also way worse and less accurate.

[Elroypedro]

Your way, @Elroypedro, is twice as hard, IMO.

It's hard enough agreeing that Player X is worth Draft Pick Y.

For your conversion to work, we would need to agree that Player X is worth ADP Value A (which may or may not be the opinion of Player X's current owner) AND we would need to agree that Draft Pick Y is worth ADP Value B (which may or may not be the opinion of Draft Pick Y's current owner). And THEN we need to see if ADP Values A and B are even close to each other.

In other words, if I have a dime and you have two nickels, we would be foolish to convert both of them to Euros (where we might have different conversion rates) in order to make the exchange.

Yes but your way you are happy to say your dime is worth somewhere between $0.00 and $0.25 because it’s “easier” than being specific, while my way spends an extra step and says your dime is worth more like between $0.05 and $0.15, so do you want to trade it for 2 nickels?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Startup drafts are completely different than existing leagues, so that's your first mistake. The majority of people trying to gauge value are probably not in a startup. Secondly, as everyone else is saying, you are completely over-complicating it. Also, in theory, you could have a player ranked 100 in a startup that the consensus has worth a early-2nd lets say and there could be a big dropoff to the next player at 101, maybe people would say he's worth a 3rd or something. So is a ranking of 100 to 101 really a fair comparison of the two? Of course not.

[Elroypedro]

That is a good way to communicate player values but good luck changing how crowds of people act.

I think GG is correct - rookie draft picks is the most common currency when trading players, so it's natural to use them as the value equivalent to veteran players.

It is hard to get a large group of people to change from a lazy and inaccurate valuation method. For sure. Maybe start it on this board and be the most accurate evaluators and have a big leg up on our competition. Like a huge leg up.

To your point about picks being the common currency... Another way to frame my argument is that that currency(picks) is very poorly valued itself, and one way to better value the currency(picks), is to place it into an ADP rankings format, which is more granular and accurate, and subjectivity exerted on that data as a variable would have much less effect than on a smaller and less granular data set like rookie picks. In other words, what’s the difference between an early 2nd and mid 2nd? Very hard to say, and if we were just spitballing players out there like has been the way of doing things we might end up with a whole set of wildly different and substantially out of proportion differences in value between players valued at those spots. Whereas if we valued them based on ADP rankings we would have more of a narrow, specific, accurate range of value of players between those two picks, and get a much, much more accurate and narrow idea of the actual value of those two picks in the process.

Hopefully stubborn and lazy owners would come around to valuing players like this in a group setting like this, as the data would be stronger with more people contributing together in this better method.

[Elroypedro]

Startup drafts are completely different than existing leagues, so that's your first mistake. Secondly, as everyone else is saying, you are completely over-complicating it.

No, they are not different for valuing players here. Startup ADP is the best evaluator of a player’s current value, bar none. You can take into account your own league’s rules etc but this argument is ridiculous on its face because what you are saying, if true, is even more true for valuing players in terms of a league’s rookie draft picks. Valuing that way is worse no matter what.

This is not complicated at all. It isnt lazy and inaccurate like valuing players in terms of rookie draft picks is, so there is a tiny modicum of work to be done in comparison, but the value in doing it this way seems like it would be very substantial, and worth the small shift in the way of doing things, and the small effort it would take to do things better in order to reap the reward of a more specific and much, MUCH more accurate player valuation process.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Any linear ranking system as you are proposing is terrible for a global method of valuing players because there could be a gigantic gap in value between two players ranked directly next to each other. Conversely, you could have 2 players separated by 10 or 20 spots that are virtually identical in value.

It's like the whole world uses money and you want to use candy corns as currency instead. Money is better in more scenarios than candy corn.

[Elroypedro]

Any linear ranking system as you are proposing is terrible for a global method of valuing players because there could be a gigantic gap in value between two players ranked directly next to each other. Conversely, you could have 2 players separated by 10 or 20 spots that are virtually identical in value.

You aren’t understanding. This method(Startup ADP ranking) is still SUBSTANTIALLY more granular, specific, and accurate than valuing players based on rookie picks. It is also less subject to the effect of subjectivity on the data. The only argument against it so far in this thread is that it’s just easier to be less accurate, and more subjective in our player valuation. To be lazy. That is a bad argument