It is Mark Ingram Time - Back Home to NO

[tstafford]

All,

Note: I debated whether this should go in the NFL Prospects Forum. Decided it is strategy not player specific. If it needs to be moved, I understand.

Seems that 'tis the season to bash Ingram. I wanted to suggest a counter argument.

For anyone who hasn't read it, this article is a must read. Probably one of the best things I've read in a while when it comes to the numbers. The WR version is terrific as well.
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2011/i ... istory-rbs

It's very hard to argue with history. What the article shows is that NFL teams know how to select the first RB off the board. Maybe that won't be Ingram (that debate might have some merit). But if it is Ingram, there is no doubt that he is worthy of a high (1.01/1.02) pick. It's not to say that he's a surefire stud - it's to say that the odds of that pick delivering fantasy value become very, very high. Said the other way, he's not at all likely to bust.

The article refers to, but doesn't list, the first RB taken in each NFL draft. Here they are:
Spiller, Moreno, DMC, ADP, Bush, R. Brown, S. Jax, McGahee, Green, LT

Give me those odds any day. Note: If Williams or LeShoure is the first RB off the board, then I'd argue in their favor. And yes, this suggests Spiller was a very safe pick last year as well. I doesn't mean that Mathews was a bad pick, it means that Spiller would have been a good one.

I'm now off to buy a fire suit before returning to see what responses this gets!!

Tim

[melish1631]

Great article! I would love to land him...let everyone bash him!!My opinion is it's the pre-draft blues and analysis by paralysis time for scouts and media!!!

[BeRanDone]

I like the bashing. Could help me land him at 1.03 in both of my leagues. He hasn't moved from the #1 RB on my board.

[dlf_ericd]

I like the bashing. Could help me land him at 1.03 in both of my leagues. He hasn't moved from the #1 RB on my board.

I agree...let people bash him & slide down the rankings.

[Al Kohaul]

It's also the season of misinformation and you can't believe everything you hear or read...everybody's working their agenda this time of year...

[Richman]

It's also the season of misinformation and you can't believe everything you hear or read...everybody's working their agenda this time of year...

Agreed!

[kris_kapsner]

Unfortunately, I own the 1.1 and he won't fall to 1.4 for my next pick no matter how much bashing there is out there...unless both Green and Jones go top 10 and Ingram gets drafted behind Leshoure and Williams for some reason. So, I'll be having to draft Ingram #1 overall no matter how much misinformation there is that's flying around.

[Wallace's Warriors]

That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.

[??Droppedballs??]

doesn't really matter, ingram is a stud, even if he gets drafted in the 3rd rd, he won't make it past the 1.2 in my draft. i don't know if i would agree with the e smith comparisions, but i see a frank gore type player, great vision, powers, extemley good burst and who wouldn't want a 21 yr old gore type rb on their team

[Team Canada]

That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.

whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?

[Wallace's Warriors]

That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.

whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?

I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.

[skip]

That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.

whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?

I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.

The only reason he would slide to the 2nd is based on lack of need, nothing more. Had he come out last season, he would have gone in the top 10 instead of Spiller. Also a superior talent to Mathews who was taken at 13. I would comfortably say the chance of him busting regardless of where he is drafted is in the single digits.

[Team Canada]

That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.

whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?

I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.

according to the numbers anyone could be a bust. he also said " It’s quite safe to say that the first RB off the board in the NFL draft is going to be a fine fantasy producer. " Since there has been no situation in the last ten years where no RBs have been taken in the 1st round you really dont have any numbers to show for that. The RBs taken 1st in the 2nd rounds of previous drafts were not considered the best of the draft because other RBs were taken before them. Ingram could very well be the 1st RB taken in the 2nd round and 1st RB taken in the draft all together. Sooo imo the numbers you gave us are irrelevant as Ingram's situation is totally different from other RB's taken 1st in the 2nd round if even Ingram slips to the 2nd.

[Wallace's Warriors]

whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?

I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.

according to the numbers anyone could be a bust. he also said " It’s quite safe to say that the first RB off the board in the NFL draft is going to be a fine fantasy producer. " Since there has been no situation in the last ten years where no RBs have been taken in the 1st round you really dont have any numbers to show for that. The RBs taken 1st in the 2nd rounds of previous drafts were not considered the best of the draft because other RBs were taken before them. Ingram could very well be the 1st RB taken in the 2nd round and 1st RB taken in the draft all together. Sooo imo the numbers you gave us are irrelevant as Ingram's situation is totally different from other RB's taken 1st in the 2nd round if even Ingram slips to the 2nd.

Not only that but there hasn't been a situation where two RBs have not been taken in the first round. This is a different type of RB draft and the case for Ingram can't be made by passed picks of other RBs. Therefor the whole argument that the other RBs are studs should be considered irrelevant. IMO

[ekassor]

That is for RBs first off the board in the first round. If Ingram goes first off the board in the second he has an 80% chance at bust and I don't think he goes in the first. Not enough teams need a RB.

whats ur reason y he will be a bust in NE?

I did not say he would be a bust in NE. I said according to the numbers, which is what this section is about, he could be a bust. The argument was that the first RB taken in the first round had a 90% success rate over the last ten years. However I think that he might go in the second round which is only a 20% success rate over the last ten years. I did not say anything about the Patriots.

The lesson is more about the potential of the first RBs off the board, not where they are taken. I think the league is following Belichick's example of not drafting RBs in the 1st, which will likely become a trend until the next mega prospect comes along.