Any Philip Lindsay Believers Out There?

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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby XclickX » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:51 pm

The Royce owner offered me the 1.09 for Lindsay but I’m holding to see how 2019 shakes out. So some owners will pay first rd picks for him.

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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Bot101 » Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:53 pm

XclickX wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:51 pm The Royce owner offered me the 1.09 for Lindsay but I’m holding to see how 2019 shakes out. So some owners will pay first rd picks for him.
I would have probably broken my finger hitting that accept button.

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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby ArrylT » Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:04 pm

moishetreats wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:52 pm
darewood11 wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 2:40 pm Never seen an ADP vary so far from actual value
His ADP is in the 40s and I'm not even able to get a high 2nd for him anywhere.
People think hes that much more of a risk over chris Carson and Lamar Miller and that tier of guys? This is crazy
These two aren't really the same thing. For him to have an ADP in the 40s, he needs just one owner to believe. For a trade (after he is drafted in the 40s), he needs TWO owners: the one who drafted and the one who is buying.

Similarly, a buyer in a trade rarely looks to pay peak market price for a high-end unless the buyer has VERY high confidence in future production. Whatever you think of Lindsay, that confidence can't be so high.

Indeed, were you to try to trade, say, James Conner, I think that you'd run into the same wall. His ADP is high -- top 20! -- because there will be one guy who believes in him and/or is willing to gamble on his upside. But, you won't likely get top-20 trade value for him when other top-20 players have more security even if they have a lower ceiling.
Sound advice for any player & their market value and something that needs to be taken into account any time people say "Oh you should buy/sell at Price X".

Some players need to prove it multiple times, especially when they come out of "nowhere". Adam Thielen. Stefon Diggs. Tyreek Hill. Odell Beckham had his non-believers after Year I. Until the majority of owners are, if not believers, at least believing in the price, where a volatile assets ADP is in relation to their trade value can be miles apart.

I will say that I have publicly advertised his price in one league where I own him & have had very little interest. C'est la vie!
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Pet_Smith » Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:42 am

Once Lindsay is back healthy, I think he'll be just fine. The issue is going to be will he play in 2019, and if so when. I mentioned it the other Philip Lindsay post, but there was talk of surgery on ligaments around his scaphoid. If it was a scapho-lunate (sp) ligament rupture then he's looking at 9 months before he's ready for playing again - it's a slower recovery than an ACL, and you take time to trust the wrist again. I think people are aware of the injury, and waiting to see how it shakes out. If he ends up missing time his value is going to drop, so ppl see his ADP as a peak right now, and don't want to buy as it can't go up.

If he comes back faster and starts the season, or can reclaim a significant role once he's healthy, I think he's going to be a good player and I'm not worried about his "lack of size" (I had the same wrist injury playing rugby, and it really is a freak injury. Lack of size had nothing to do with my injury!). But I do think the ADP/value is going to drop as we move towards next season, before (hopefully) rebounding back to where it is now once he's back on the field
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Dynasty DeLorean » Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:13 am

Elroypedro wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:18 pm Here’s an interesting stat:

Royce Freeman faced 8 men in the box an absurd 36% of the time. Philip Lindsay faced 8mitb a very low 14% of the time.

If that were adjusted to be equal by better coaching and scheming how would the two backs look?
I never know which site has the most accuarate stats for this type of stuff. PlayerProfiler has a similar stat but the numbers are not 36% and 14%. If anything Freeman and Lindsay faced about the same men in the box if you go by their stats. Again, Idk how accurate these sites are with these numbers.

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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Servo » Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:30 am

Lindsay was a fantastic player this season, and truly incredible for a guy that came out of nowhere.

Made a ton of huge plays, but Denver was so inept that they kept feeding Booker instead of giving those touches/receptions to Lindsay and Freeman.

Although Lindsay had a great year, there's always that shade of doubt that will he be the same? Will this new OC in Denver continue to use him the same? We don't really have any idea of what Rich Scangarello is, all I know is he's the guy who told Shannahan to sign Nick Mullens.

With the way the RB landscape changes so frequently you might be better off selling Lindsay if you're able to get that 1st or early 2nd+. If I'm not getting that, I'd probably ride Lindsay into the sunset.

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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Ice » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:49 pm

I wouldn't sell Lindsay for 1.4 in this draft. 192 carries 5.4 YPC. 35 receptions and 10 total TD's.

This kid can really play football and is just getting started. Expect a big pick up in receiving going forward. I have seen this surgery many times and he will be 100% by training camp., I have zero concerns with his injury.
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Cult of Dionysus » Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:54 am

Ice wrote: Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:49 pm I have seen this surgery many times and he will be 100% by training camp., I have zero concerns with his injury.
Please elaborate on this, cuz from what some posters and reports indicate, could be a serious rehab...

Not calling u wrong, just want to understand on what basis your statement is based on.

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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:00 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote: Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:54 am
Ice wrote: Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:49 pm I have seen this surgery many times and he will be 100% by training camp., I have zero concerns with his injury.
Please elaborate on this, cuz from what some posters and reports indicate, could be a serious rehab...

Not calling u wrong, just want to understand on what basis your statement is based on.
“It’s a pretty serious injury,” said Dr. Steven Shin, director of hand surgery at Cedars-Sinai’s Kerlan-Jobe Institute in Los Angeles, in a phone interview. “With the right treatment, he should still be able to play effectively. He may never have the same wrist strength as before, but pretty close.”

Shin said the way Lindsay’s wrist bent backward usually occurs when a person uses their hand to brace a fall, but also in a vehicle accident when a driver or passenger’s hand crashes against the dashboard.

“The ligament injury is more serious in my mind because there is no predictable way to fix it,” said Shin, who performed the fracture and ligament surgery last year on an NFL lineman. “We do our best to repair or reconstruct the ligament.

“A running back handling the football, it will be more difficult than if he was a lineman or a linebacker.”

If Lindsay did sustain a fracture, Shin said the surgery would include inserting pins. After eight weeks in a cast, the pins would be removed and then rehabilitation could begin.

Confirming what Broncos coach Vance Joseph said Wednesday, Shin noted the recovery time is expected to be 3-4 months.
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby FantasyFreak » Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:01 am

^^^^^The first paragraph is the one that scares me the most.
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Pet_Smith » Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:01 am

Thanks FF - that sounds similar to the injury I had, though I didn't have any fractures. It's an injury most associated with golfers - probably from the club catching on hard ground and jarring the wrist back.

FWIW I had a SLAM procedure to replace/repair a completely ruptured ligament. Involved removing another tendon from my wrist to use as a graft (palmaris longis), then drilling through the two bones and attaching. Physio and treatment is a lot better these days - literature says to expect a 30% reduction in mobility and strength, which my physio and surgeon warned me about, but typically these days *most* people can back to near enough 100% at both - and that was always my/my physio's aim - which we certainly managed.

I wouldn't have any concerns over Lindsay's injury long term with the type of rehab he'll have access to. But it's the short term that scares me most. *If* he isn't ready for training camp/preseason & *If* someone else (Freeman) looks really good to start the season, will the new coaching regime want to get Lindsay back involved? You'd hope so to some capacity, but I think patience will be the order of the day
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Ruggenater » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:19 am

Lindsay is a sell for me, but I also still like Sammy Watkins, so my opinion may not be worth much :lol:

The wrist injury + UDFA + new coaching staff + not great team around him makes me think 2018 will be the best season of his career.

I got him off waivers at the beginning of the 2018 season and sold for a 2019 1st + 2nd mid-season, which turned into 1.06 + 2.08. I'm still happy with that return.
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby knotts4372 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:30 pm

snaps06 wrote: Wed Feb 06, 2019 9:10 pm Official "plant my flag:" He won't be the starter in week 1.

That's why he's lacking value. Royce Freeman will surpass him and he'll be relegated to change-of-pace duties. Right now, I'd give up more for Freeman (2.1-2.5 range) than Lindsay (2.8-2.12 range).
thats fine. he wasnt the starter early last year either. even if hes not starting early, he'll eventually be and still out touch freeman easily.
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Re: Philip lindsay

Postby Ice » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:16 am

Cult of Dionysus wrote: Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:54 am
Ice wrote: Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:49 pm I have seen this surgery many times and he will be 100% by training camp., I have zero concerns with his injury.
Please elaborate on this, cuz from what some posters and reports indicate, could be a serious rehab...

Not calling u wrong, just want to understand on what basis your statement is based on.
I was in Operating Room Medical Monitoring business for decades. I have sat in on about every surgery known to mankind multiple times. I also ran a PT/OT company for a while. My sister is also an OT (Occupational Therapist) at Tier in Houston which is the best in the country., Kevin Everett the TE for the Bills several years ago was one of her patients in Houston. In other words I deal with Surgeons for a living and have a few I ask a lot of questions. As a general rule Surgery technique and technology doubles around every 7 years and I am confident the NFL spares no expense so his care should certainly be state of the art.

Not Claiming to be an expert by any means but I do run the circles of those in the know when it comes to Surgery and Rehab. Obviously, there are no guarantees but in reality the rehab process for professional athletes will be more progressive than the average citizen. Rehab is serious, it is just that when tied to your living there is nothing else to really concern him with but going after it aggressively.

The above are the reasons I have Zero Concerns. Don't blame anyone if they do but the body part in question is really not that complex in the grand scheme IMO. The Ligament heal is a bit more complicated which would affect the rehab timeline but he is really young and given its typically 3- 4 months it shoiuldn't be an issue even if it takes 5 months or more. Late June will mark 6 months.

I own Lindsay in a lot of leagues so I am tracking him pretty closely. Dr. Shin is a pretty well known Orthopedic Hand Surgeon at one of the more prestigious hospitals in the country.
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