Rookie Draft Age Factor

[zoster80]

From a future value standpoint I think that guys like DJ and J Doctson make this an easy argument. Both were pretty highly touted guys coming out. DJ lasted in to the 2nd round in some leagues and Doctson was a high first pretty much everywhere. Fast forward a few years and you have DJ on the cusp of 30 supposedly even though he just turned 27 and Doctson has yet to breakout and is 26. They are barely 3/4 years into the league and age is already consideration when people bring them up. Doctson practically has no value so he may not be the best example, but with career revivals of guys like R Woods and Albert Wilson who are the same age (26) but they are on new teams on their 2nd contract this shows how important it is to be young going into that 2nd contract which for many player is their 2nd (last) chance.
In the case of Doctson he won’t be a free agent until age 29 which will servely affect his value, if he has anything left at that point.

[Ice]

A more in depth discussion on age factor IMO should actually be centered on the change in CBA rules. Today, with the rookie wage scale and lack of negotiating power we are seeing the average draft age dropping across the board. The driver behind this is most likely trying to get to a 2nd contract which gives the players leverage.

This scale also aids management in that the maturity risk is mitigated by the lower cost. Getting a younger player into the system to learn does make some sense. My sense is the underclassmen are now declaring at twice the rate since the rookie wage scale. This change is not about age as much as it is about downstream financial opportunity given the rules that are in place.

What is actually quite obvious is that NFL WR's tend to excel in the mid 20's once they master their craft regardless of when they enter the league. Of the top 15 fantasy WR's this past season 9 were 26 plus, 3 were 25, 3 were 24 or less.

JuJu youngest at 22, Brown oldest at 30.

Of the top 15; 4 were 1st round draft picks, 6 were drafted in the 3rd round or later with 1 of those not drafted. (#5 Thielen )

[Orenthal Shames]

To all that really buy into the correlation of an age metric and success, which I do disagree with, go back and study the 2015 draft. Many of you are spinning the successes of this metric without giving any credence to the actual failures which counters the metric.

The NFL is riddled with WR's and x WR's that were great in college but made zero impact in the NFL or limited success. Age may be important to some but the point remains it is talent not the age factor they actually flashed elite traits.

Once one fairly applies both sides without cherry picking age factor the results will surprise.

2015 Draft
15 C. Coleman
21 W. Fuller
22. J Doctson
23. L Treadwell
40. S Shepard
47. M Thomas (Stud at this level)
55. T Boyd
85. B Miller
86. L Carroo
107. C Moore
114. R Louis
117. P Cooper
126. D. Robinson
140. T Sharpe
154. J Payton
163. T Davis
165. Tyreek Hill ( Stud Jr. College Transfer)

Picks 47 and 165 are obviously the best in class. but using the age metric; What happened to the other 14 in this sample size.

Pro scouts don't really look at break out games or age. All of them are young. While break out games may get them noticed, Scouts are looking at talent metrics starting with the feet up.

Good Luck with your research attempting to prove the relevancy of break out age from this entire draft class.

So.... becoming a successful nfl receiver requires talent? Solid analysis. I'll be sure to put that to use going forward.

Breakout age is a talent metric. We can agree to disagree on it's relevance personally, but that doesn't change the fact.

Nfl success is multifactorial. Analytics were made to help add more pieces to the puzzle.

[Vcize]

What is actually quite obvious is that NFL WR's tend to excel in the mid 20's once they master their craft regardless of when they enter the league. Of the top 15 fantasy WR's this past season 9 were 26 plus, 3 were 25, 3 were 24 or less.

Is the bolded really true though?

Hint: All of the data points to no.

[Orenthal Shames]

What is actually quite obvious is that NFL WR's tend to excel in the mid 20's once they master their craft regardless of when they enter the league. Of the top 15 fantasy WR's this past season 9 were 26 plus, 3 were 25, 3 were 24 or less.

JuJu youngest at 22, Brown oldest at 30.

Of the top 15; 4 were 1st round draft picks, 6 were drafted in the 3rd round or later with 1 of those not drafted. (#5 Thielen )

I honestly am not sure you're comprehending the topic. Nobody is saying WRs can't be productive late into their careers, or that you should just take younger players in drafts. We are trying to predict which ones will be able to reach those feats.

The correlation is that players who achieve a certain threshold of success in college early have a better chance of becomimg productive nfl receivers.

There are 2 players in the NFL that have had multiple productive seasons in the NFL that couldn't reach these collegiate thresholds until they were 21 or older. Two. I'm no Jenkins.Math, but I don't think those are good odds

Trends and statistics help us make more informed decisions. Obviously, there are no absolutes.

[Ice]

So.... becoming a successful nfl receiver requires talent? Solid analysis. I'll be sure to put that to use going forward.

That's the best you Got?

I didn't analyze the 2015 draft. I simple asked to apply that metric to the 2015 draft. Don't really have the time to deal with you if your only goal to feebly prove a point is with snarky attacks.

No disputing the fact that younger players are entering the draft across the board; That had nothing to do with my posts on the subject.

I get the topic BTW, it is just a weak metric once one understands why athletes declare early. Regardless of how anyone looks at age, the failure rate regardless of age is high. It is obvious at the top end of the talent spectrum, the odds improve to succeed but it is not age that pro scouts look at. Scouts look at potential of players weighed against the mental makeup of those players and how they fit in their scheme.

Going back to the 2014 draft; Did anyone really look at age factor?

Watkins, Evans, Odell, Cooks, Adams Landry to name of a few of the first 12 WR's drafted in the top 2 rounds, all of which are still in the league.

This draft was all about talent regardless of age especially compared to the 2015 draft. The 2014 draft was one of the better drafts ever in the NFL with 23 pro bowlers in the first 2 rounds. ( Interesting side note; zero RB's in that group)

One could argue Age factor in the 2014 draft but no way one can defend the metric in 2015.

The point is there are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

[Ice]

What is actually quite obvious is that NFL WR's tend to excel in the mid 20's once they master their craft regardless of when they enter the league. Of the top 15 fantasy WR's this past season 9 were 26 plus, 3 were 25, 3 were 24 or less.

Is the bolded really true though?

Hint: All of the data points to no.

"ALL DATA"

You can say it but you sure can't prove it. Players get better especially in their mid 20's overall at the WR position. If you have data contrary, better to actually share that data than claim you may know through your hint comment.

PFF Article from 2012
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/age-of-decline-wr

2015 article
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/462 ... eir-primes

2017 article on the topic of peak performance.
http://apexfantasyleagues.com/2017/02/t ... receiver/#

[tresskid84]

I feel like there are 4 different arguments going on right now, lol

[Orenthal Shames]

So.... becoming a successful nfl receiver requires talent? Solid analysis. I'll be sure to put that to use going forward.

That's the best you Got?

I didn't analyze the 2015 draft. I simple asked to apply that metric to the 2015 draft. Don't really have the time to deal with you if your only goal to feebly prove a point is with snarky attacks.

No disputing the fact that younger players are entering the draft across the board; That had nothing to do with my posts on the subject.

I get the topic BTW, it is just a weak metric once one understands why athletes declare early. Regardless of how anyone looks at age, the failure rate regardless of age is high. It is obvious at the top end of the talent spectrum, the odds improve to succeed but it is not age that pro scouts look at. Scouts look at potential of players weighed against the mental makeup of those players and how they fit in their scheme.

Going back to the 2014 draft; Did anyone really look at age factor?

Watkins, Evans, Odell, Cooks, Adams Landry to name of a few of the first 12 WR's drafted in the top 2 rounds, all of which are still in the league.

This draft was all about talent regardless of age especially compared to the 2015 draft. The 2014 draft was one of the better drafts ever in the NFL with 23 pro bowlers in the first 2 rounds. ( Interesting side note; zero RB's in that group)

One could argue Age factor in the 2014 draft but no way one can defend the metric in 2015.

The point is there are Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

Your posts are all over the place. It's a flight of ideas. Going from how long players play; how/why they stay in school or declare; rookie wage scales; looking at certain drafts, etc. None of it adds to or really even relates to the conversation at hand.

The only recurring counter is "yeah but talent".

I agree failure rates of receivers are high, even top prospects. That's why looking at trends, especially ones that show overwhelming likelihood for said failure (i.e. late breakout age correlation) helps us further differentiate prospects, many of whom are seperated by the thinnest margins to begin with.

If you see no value in that, then we disagree fundamentally and Saul Goodman (It's all good man). Have fun grinding tape.

[GridironGuerilla]

I feel like there are 4 different arguments going on right now, lol

Was just thinking that! lol

[Jigga94]

I feel like there are 4 different arguments going on right now, lol

Most arguments are fun to watch, but this one's painful.

[Jigga94]

I think Ice wants the breakout age for every player lined up from that draft. You gave him the general %s over a period of time which are obviously in favor of early breakout age = higher rate of NFL success. It made sense to me and I plan on looking at BA in the future. Thanks for putting me on

[Vcize]

What is actually quite obvious is that NFL WR's tend to excel in the mid 20's once they master their craft regardless of when they enter the league. Of the top 15 fantasy WR's this past season 9 were 26 plus, 3 were 25, 3 were 24 or less.

Is the bolded really true though?

Hint: All of the data points to no.

"ALL DATA"

You can say it but you sure can't prove it. Players get better especially in their mid 20's overall at the WR position. If you have data contrary, better to actually share that data than claim you may know through your hint comment.

PFF Article from 2012
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/age-of-decline-wr

2015 article
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/462 ... eir-primes

2017 article on the topic of peak performance.
http://apexfantasyleagues.com/2017/02/t ... receiver/#

I bolded the important part, guy. I'm not disputing that WRs break out in their mid 20's. I'm disputing your claim that it is "regardless of what age they came into the league". The data suggests that the age they come into the league does matter. As others have stated (since I can already foresee your oft repeated simplistic response), this is obviously not absolute.

[Orenthal Shames]

I think Ice wants the breakout age for every player lined up from that draft. You gave him the general %s over a period of time which are obviously in favor of early breakout age = higher rate of NFL success. It made sense to me and I plan on looking at BA in the future. Thanks for putting me on

The BA data I threw out looked at 160 active, dynasty ranked wrs. Looking at one particular class, especially one that was considered poor overall and contained one of the two extreme BA outliers is too small a sample size to make overarching assumptions from.

No metric or methodology is perfect.

Glad i could actually offer up some useful content for once

[Ice]

My take is using " Break out Age " is fine for some but the fact remains it is not the age a player breaks out given there are actually far more examples of players that did break out at an early age that never make it. Age is a number. It is all about the talent of the player.

Drafts are littered with early breakout stats of players that couldn't handle the NFL. Young talent matters which I agree with 100%

Study the the back to back drafts of 2014 and 2015. One is loaded with talent that made it and did break out early. The other is loaded with early break out players that didn't. Doesn't seem most of you see that which is a bit surprising. Two sides to that coin.

Age is not a reason a player can run sub 4.5, can cut on a dime, has great hands, or a catch radius that is elite. These players had those skills back in High School thru College and some grow into elite players. Others were overlooked by scouts and developed in the NFL.

In fairness, it was pretty common knowledge the 2014 class was absolutely loaded with talent and many of us were quite skeptical of the 2015 class from a talent perspective especially compared to 2014.