Where Would You Take Pick 1.01 as a Draftable Asset in a Startup

[ascherb]

Have a startup coming up where rookie picks for the upcoming draft are draftable.

12 man league, Superflex, TE premium.

At what point should I be looking at these selections?

Is the late second round of a startup too early to be taking 1.01?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

That’s probably too early. I’m looking at a superflex te premium draft I did last spring and I probably wouldn’t take the 1.01 before at least 50 or so players are off the board, maybe even more because there is no clear 1.01 stud yet. If it was Zeke, Fournette or Saquon then sure. Unfortunately it’s not.

[lukkynumber13]

Probably late 3rd?

[Mjvb5]

in that kinda league there's about 15 QBs, 35 skills players, and 5 TEs I'd rather have than the 1.1 right now so about mid 5th which I doubt it lasts to

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Probably late 3rd?

Late 3rd would be top 36. Looking at a (probably inaccurate) superflex adp list some players going after 36 would be;

Wentz
Arob
Diggs
Kittle
Mixon
Cam
Dalvin
Woods
Guice
Aaron Jones
Fuller
Henry
Goff
Gronk
Sony
Landry
Baker
Cooper
Matt Ryan
Boyd
Golladay
Stafford
Corey Davis
Kirk Cousins


Hard to imagine you'd take some random rookie over most of those players, especially in a superflex te premium.

[pokerface40]

This is a terrible year if you want to score rookie picks in a startup, as stated in the the above posts. My guess is owners will overdraft the 'allure' of the 1.01, without a clear target in sight as of now.

[MattDeezy]

It went around round 4 in two startups I did in the last month.

[IBall2]

I agree with 4th round. No clear #1 prospect and even 2 years ago when people were taking Fournette/Davis in the 2nd round of start up drafts, hasn't turned out as they had hoped. This year with all the uncertainty around who would be 1.01 makes it worse. You're better off waiting until the 4th or 5th round and taking a rookie pick even if it's 1.05.

Getting a high end player in the 2nd + 1.05 in the 4th seems like a much better option than getting the 1.01 in the 2nd + middle tier player in the 4th.

[hockeyBjj]

Honestly don't care about the round or number. Once you start getting to players you'd ship off for an early 1st without a second thought, then take the 1.01

Odds are, some other leaguemate jumped the gun on that. Rookie picks always go too soon when available in startups imo

[RB6]

Let others reach for the early rookie picks and enjoy landing proven assets that fall to you.

[FantasyFreak]

In a recent 14 team SF/TE premium I did it went @ 4.10, so that would be 5th round in your draft. It was taken before Brandin Cooks, DJ Moore, Golladay, Guice etc.

[Jigga94]

In a recent 14 team SF/TE premium I did it went @ 4.10, so that would be 5th round in your draft. It was taken before Brandin Cooks, DJ Moore, Golladay, Guice etc.

Everyone hates Cooks

[Vcize]

Let others reach for the early rookie picks and enjoy landing proven assets that fall to you.

Once you get beyond the 2nd round the bust rate is very high even when talking about vets. This is always overlooked when talking about the bust rate of rookies.

Check out these guys that all had an ADP in the 3rd-5th round of startup drafts last year.

Freeman
ARob
Gronk
C Davis
McKinnon
J Howard
Landry
Baldwin
Engram
Alshon
Watkins
J Gordon
Tate
Fitz
Demaryius
M Jones
Collins
Fuller
Crowder

Not all outright busts (though plenty of those as well), but all guys whose value has dropped substantially and who owners most likely regret drafting at the spot they did. That list represents 19 of the 29 vets (the other 7 were rookies) taken in those 3 rounds last year, so basically 66% of the vets with ADP in the 3rd-5th round were relative busts.

This is a non-SF list so that will change things, but maybe not for the better as the majority of the 10 vets who were not busts were QBs that would likely not have been available in that range in the draft settings we're talking about here.

[Cameron Giles]

I feel like this is the type of draft where pick value is going to be very similar outside of the opportunity to get "your guy." There's no clear cut jewel, there's no clear cut #2, #3, #4, etc. Plus, the last thing you want to do in a startup is reach on rookie picks.

4th round as many have said sounds about right. I'd personally rather have Golladay, Cooks, and Moore over the 1.01 right now.

[qazxswedcvfrtgbnhyuj]

I just finished a 12 team superflex te premium startup yesterday, and the 1.01 went at 3.10, which I thought was way too early. Plenty of guys like Diggs, Cooper, Golladay, Conner, Cooks etc. available at that point in the draft, and that's not even getting into QBs.

I'm actually glad I read through this post because I was second guessing myself all draft for ending up with almost no rookie picks. Every time I was up however it seemed like the rookie picks had gone at least a full round too early and I ended up with very solid and sometimes still young veterans.

So yeah, I agree with above posters, I'd consider the 1.01 late in the 4th, and probably only there because it's a given that you can get more for it come rookie draft time. But with that mentality I'm also always pretty sure I won't have a shot at getting that pick at all..