Patrick Mahomes: The Best QB in the NFL & for Dynasty

[Huh]

And as usual this all is dependent on the state of your team. If you are a contender the availability of Mahomes should be different than if you have a rotten team and need assets. The team I have Mahomes on is just coming off a championship and it is deep. Mahomes took that high caliber team to another level that only a few others can. I’m in no hurry to give away this advantage.

[Jfever]

I don’t know if he’ll throw fifty next year but i bet he’ll be a top five qb. And decent bet that he’ll be top five the year after. And the year after. His value is that I see his floor as top five qb. As has been said qb production fluctuates so being able to plug and play someone with a high floor and a unbelievable ceiling is just so niiice. Like I said I do believe he is a goat candidate and that prior to this I have traded every qb I’ve ever owned high. If someone is paying luck and Chubb or an equivalent rb/we, then by all means do it. But if you are offering russel Wilson and Doug Baldwin I’m passing. Are people actually trading luck and Chubb for Mahomes? I don’t think they are so why bother trading?

Rose colored glasses. This take ^ shows a subtle lack of complete understanding of the complexities that contribute to the production that was there for KC. All it would take to drop Mahomes down from top 3-5 to top 8-10 is the loss of T.Hill and or T.Kelce. This is always possible. Heck, if their defense improves a little, it'd put less pressure on the offense and therefore the playcalling alone could provide the regression for Mahomes to regress from the top 5. It is much more possible in 2-3 years when the entire salary cap issue eats into that roster. A decent bet to be top 5 next year - sure, I can follow that. The year after - it is a 50/50% coin flip on that far out as there are just way too many things (variables) that have a heavy influence that have little to do with ability / talent.

[JoshGordonsDealer]

And as usual this all is dependent on the state of your team. If you are a contender the availability of Mahomes should be different than if you have a rotten team and need assets. The team I have Mahomes on is just coming off a championship and it is deep. Mahomes took that high caliber team to another level that only a few others can. I’m in no hurry to give away this advantage.

And this is why he's a sell high, imo. Because people think like this so often.

1. A lot of people on that offense are going to get paid, Mahomes included. He won't always throw to Kelce, Hill, and Sammy.
2. Injuries to any of the aforementioned players.
3. Defense is going to get better -- what happens when they're not throwing on 61+% of their offensive plays?

[Patsfan86]

Glad to see some sanity on Mahomes. He had ONE good season with an HOF TE and a great WR. Alex Smith had his best season ever on this roster, its a very good roster with a very good coach. Mahomes does not suck but people need to chill on this guy. He is by no means a top 5 dynasty asset like some are saying and you just CANNOT call a guy the GOAT after one season or even say you think he is one. We have a 19 game sample size, way to small to declare him anything.

[Jigga94]

I don't get why people make injuries part of their argument. They are a freak thing that can happen to anyone. Should be a constant for anyone in the league and not an argument for someone's regression. To me it just sounds like a distant reason...

Is Mahomes likely to regress? Duh.
Is Mahomes going to hit 50 or 5000 again? If someone does, he'd be my bet.
Is he going to to be top 5 next year? Maybe... I'd put a higher bet on him being top 5 than the aforementioned Wentz and Watson after their 1st big year. But I wouldn't use injury as my supporting argument...

KC Defense not being so bad could be one. Whether that means not having to catch up in games or being able to gain leads and run some more. Maybe defenses shut down KCs big plays. Mahomes is going to regress. Every MVP is a likely bet, I mean they just had the best year of anyone in football...

Selling him is a different story. No one is giving you Hopkins or MT. No one is selling for Russel and Baldwin. There's middle ground there that makes sense for both owners... Baker and DJ Moore (and pick) for a rebuilder would make sense to cash out on this big season while also betting on Baker's future.

[Jigga94]

Glad to see some sanity on Mahomes. He had ONE good season with an HOF TE and a great WR. Alex Smith had his best season ever on this roster, its a very good roster with a very good coach. Mahomes does not suck but people need to chill on this guy. He is by no means a top 5 dynasty asset like some are saying and you just CANNOT call a guy the GOAT after one season or even say you think he is one.

Not even top 20 in 1 QB formats, but SF or 2QB? Hes my 1.01

[clarion contrarion]

It would take a home run no brainer type deal to trade him for me . I do not draft qbs in rookie drafts for any reason although that may change going forward ( attn league mates that have figured this out) So I only own 1 share . People counting on that defense getting appreciably better should understand the player is a free agent and the other best players are getting older . He may need to continue to throw it a ton out of necessity or andy reids desire to throw it around . All the stars he has are what a 3rd round TE a 5th round wr a now deposed 3rd round rb a former failed 1st round wr and a bunch of UDFA's . They will get paid true but andy reid makes stars out of JAGS always has and what mahomes did was incredible for anyone let alone a guy with 1 start entering the season . Call me delusional if you wish but he MAY NOT have reached his ceiling yet .
He drug a mediocre team of mine to a title and I would rather have him than face him going forward .
If you sold dan marino after his 2nd season how did that turn out for you ? I read all the time - qbs are a dime a dozen in 1 qb leagues perhaps true if you stream with skill but I would rather pencil big time qbs # year over year than chase the next qb breakout or hope some guy who has an improved situation will take off . You have to do what makes you feel the most competitive and for me that is locking in the ( potential) best at the highest scoring position. I do it by having a premium qb if possible and as my rather humble sig shows that seems to work for me .

I do realize scoring system matters but in most of the leagues I play in mahomes was the top scorer by a solid margin and damned consistent as well. Having him was like streaming against the bucs pass defense every week pretty much.

If I own him I would rather go down in flames if he tails off than trade him away and have him string together another ten seasons avg - 45 TD 4500 yards.

[Patsfan86]

Glad to see some sanity on Mahomes. He had ONE good season with an HOF TE and a great WR. Alex Smith had his best season ever on this roster, its a very good roster with a very good coach. Mahomes does not suck but people need to chill on this guy. He is by no means a top 5 dynasty asset like some are saying and you just CANNOT call a guy the GOAT after one season or even say you think he is one.

Not even top 20 in 1 QB formats, but SF or 2QB? Hes my 1.01

This is a different argument, and Id be more on board with that, but doubt id take him over Barkley even in a 2 qb league. I will clarify next time that my argument comes from that of a 1 Qb perspective. I don't know if it was this or another Thread where I read someone saying Mahomes is a top 5 dynasty asset. And calling him a possible GOAT already is definitely jumping the gun.

[Jigga94]

Glad to see some sanity on Mahomes. He had ONE good season with an HOF TE and a great WR. Alex Smith had his best season ever on this roster, its a very good roster with a very good coach. Mahomes does not suck but people need to chill on this guy. He is by no means a top 5 dynasty asset like some are saying and you just CANNOT call a guy the GOAT after one season or even say you think he is one.

Not even top 20 in 1 QB formats, but SF or 2QB? Hes my 1.01

This is a different argument, and Id be more on board with that, but doubt id take him over Barkley even in a 2 qb league. I will clarify next time that my argument comes from that of a 1 Qb perspective. I don't know if it was this or another Thread where I read someone saying Mahomes is a top 5 dynasty asset. And calling him a possible GOAT already is definitely jumping the gun.

Haha no it's in this thread and it's too much... Just wanted to make the case for other leagues, because he technically is worth that in other leagues.

[Huh]

I don't get why people make injuries part of their argument. They are a freak thing that can happen to anyone. Should be a constant for anyone in the league and not an argument for someone's regression. To me it just sounds like a distant reason...

Is Mahomes likely to regress? Duh.
Is Mahomes going to hit 50 or 5000 again? If someone does, he'd be my bet.
Is he going to to be top 5 next year? Maybe... I'd put a higher bet on him being top 5 than the aforementioned Wentz and Watson after their 1st big year. But I wouldn't use injury as my supporting argument...

KC Defense not being so bad could be one. Whether that means not having to catch up in games or being able to gain leads and run some more. Maybe defenses shut down KCs big plays. Mahomes is going to regress. Every MVP is a likely bet, I mean they just had the best year of anyone in football...

Selling him is a different story. No one is giving you Hopkins or MT. No one is selling for Russel and Baldwin. There's middle ground there that makes sense for both owners... Baker and DJ Moore (and pick) for a rebuilder would make sense to cash out on this big season while also betting on Baker's future.

This is a response I can get behind. The thing I can contest is how having a good d matters one or the other. They were winning some games by 20 some points in the forth quarter and they were still airing.

Even when hunt was there he only had one 100 yard rushing game. This is a modified air raid (air Reid) offense and based on analytics. Reid’s dream offense. They run on short yardage but other than that it was lightly used. Pass pass pass. They did run more when the weather went south but that’s to be expected.

They want to extend reek so the Kelce Watkins hill core will be around for several years. Talk to me in three or four years about massive regression.

[Phaded]

I think the single biggest thing that Mahomes owners need to think about is if the Chiefs team is going to be built in the same way for years to come.

Look at a guy like Drew Brees - for an excessively long time, he had to throw a lot because the team could not run the ball or play defense. In the last two years, in each season, Brees has made the least attempts per game during his entire career as a Saint. In fact, this was the first year that Drew Brees has thrown less than 500 attempts as a Saint. Part of the reason Brees was so valuable in fantasy is because he had to throw it 650 times per year. Do I think Brees is incapable of playing like that? No, but now the team can run the ball, can play defense and has a different identity.

As long as the identity of the Chiefs does not change, Mahomes will be a high end fantasy producer. One of the biggest problems with young quarterbacks and seeking high-end consistency out of them is that most of them have not had a constant coach, they are constantly needing to re-learn. Luckily for Mahomes, Andy Reid is probably one of the safest coaches in the NFL.

[ninotoreS]

In 1 QB... If I could get another QB I view in the top 5 range AND a guy like Kittle or Kerryon, I'd be selling.

In 2 QB... I'm holding pretty much no matter what. I doubt someone is willing to overpay to make it worth it

Quoted for 100% truth.

[mild]

I don't get why there's nobody saying this yet, so I just will: why are we all acting like Mahomes is at his ceiling right now? Everyone here is saying "regression"... and I just don't see it. What if it's realistic to think that with a year under his belt at his new job, he could get even better as he learns the nuances of the systems and the game?

I mean...

*deep breath*

- He just put on one of the most ridiculous displays of arm talent we've ever seen - that's not going away anytime soon.
- He retains everyone (bar Hunt) on offense from this season, and he will presumably receive 2-3 rookie/fa reinforcements of some sort.
- He just took the GOAT all the way to the hilt, and missed a tonne of throws he knows he can make... perhaps the perfect motivator to come back and play angry next season? (I know how I'd feel)
- He retains Andy goddamn Reid, the king of the regular season (for better, for worse)

Why can't he mature and get better, like so many QB's do?

If I told you to place a bet on who the first QB to break 6000 yards will be, who would be your first bet?

#Patrick6000
/performance art over

[thebeast]

I don't get why there's nobody saying this yet, so I just will: why are we all acting like Mahomes is at his ceiling right now? Everyone here is saying "regression"... and I just don't see it. What if it's realistic to think that with a year under his belt at his new job, he could get even better as he learns the nuances of the systems and the game?

I mean...

*deep breath*

- He just put on one of the most ridiculous displays of arm talent we've ever seen - that's not going away anytime soon.
- He retains everyone (bar Hunt) on offense from this season, and he will presumably receive 2-3 rookie/fa reinforcements of some sort.
- He just took the GOAT all the way to the hilt, and missed a tonne of throws he knows he can make... perhaps the perfect motivator to come back and play angry next season? (I know how I'd feel)
- He retains Andy goddamn Reid, the king of the regular season (for better, for worse)

Why can't he mature and get better, like so many QB's do?

If I told you to place a bet on who the first QB to break 6000 yards will be, who would be your first bet?

#Patrick6000
/performance art over

Are you new? The “what if” you talk about would be the exception, not one of a few exceptions, but the exception. Sure it could happen, but it’s highly unlikely. The overwhelming probability is that while he will probably still have a very good season next year that it will be disappointing to his owners. PFM had 1 year of 55 tds, one year at 49 tds and no other years in his hall of fame generational talent career above 40 tds (and those two years were quite spread out). Brees has two years above 40, which were 43 and 46. Brady the GOAT had exactly 1 year with kore than 40 tds, the year he hit 50. To believe Mahonmes is going to keep up at this level or get better is, I’m sorry, completely asinine, which to your point is why nobody is saying it.

I will even reduce my side action requirements, I’m happy to take the position he won’t even hit 45 tds next year.

[Huh]

The only 22 year olds to throw for more than 30 tds are Marino, luck, and Mahomes. The only players to thrown for fifty are Peyton (37 years old), Brady (30), and Mahomes (22). The rarified air he is in can not be understated. The notion that his trajectory is unsustainable is the wrong side of the room to be on.