Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby ajf235 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:19 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:10 pm
ajf235 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:24 am
Jigga94 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:15 am QB - NYG
RB - KC, BAL
WR - CLE, IND, OAK
TE - NE

I like the call someone made with TE to NE. If Gronk is done, I could see everyone viewing a NE drafted TE on day 1 or 2 as the next Gronk
I’ve seen mocks with Noah Fant going to Green Bay. That sounds like a potential top 5 Pick to me. Way better than NE imo. As good as Brady’s playing, Rodgers has way more juice left.
We've been saying that for years, and yet Brady has still played better than him. Rodgers keeps getting hurt and underperforming, Brady keeps staying healthy and playing at a high level. Brady says he plans to stay until he's 45 and shows zero sign of slowing down yet. That will make Rodgers around 40 at that point, and you don't tend to get healthier/less injury prone as you age. I expect them to ultimately play for about the same number of years, with Brady still playing at a high level when he calls it quits and for Rodgers to be obviously done when he retires.
At Brady’s age, the drop off will be very fast when he starts to fall off. Look at Favre and Manning’s final seasons, it wasn’t a gradual process. They were top 5 QBs one year and the next year they were bottom 3 QBs. Yeah Brady’s in amazing shape now, but all it takes is a small injury like turf toe and his career could be over. That’s basically what happened with Manning.

It’s like breaking a hip. If you’re 40 and do it, it’s a pain but you’ll recover but if you’re 85 and do it it’s practically a death sentence. Same thing with regards to injuries into your 40s in the NFL.

Also, the logic that Brady likes TEs and Rodgers doesn’t is way overblown imo. Jermichael Finley was producing like a top 5 TE before he got hurt and Jimmy Graham is not the elite talent he was a few years ago. Brady has has stud TEs to work with the past 8 years. Prior to Gronk/that other criminal TE being drafted in like 2010, people would’ve said Brady doesn’t like his TEs because he only threw to Welker and Moss.

These guys make do with the talent that’s available to them and Rodgers hasn’t had an elite TE for any significant duration of time.

It’s like saying that Kurt Warner loved throwing to RBs when in reality he just had an all-time great pass catching back in Marshall Faulk.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:34 pm

Used to be that at Rodgers age players began to drop off, then Brady broke that barrier and still going. And turf toe isn't what got Manning, he had a MAJOR neck injury (remember his last year in Indy) that caused issues with his shoulder at the end of his career. Favre started physically deteriorating due to his playing style, the same way Rodgers has and will continue to do. Brady keeps on redefining physical conditioning at the position and breaking through the ceiling everyone tries to put on him. Keep doubting him though...

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby ajf235 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:07 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:34 pm Used to be that at Rodgers age players began to drop off, then Brady broke that barrier and still going. And turf toe isn't what got Manning, he had a MAJOR neck injury (remember his last year in Indy) that caused issues with his shoulder at the end of his career. Favre started physically deteriorating due to his playing style, the same way Rodgers has and will continue to do. Brady keeps on redefining physical conditioning at the position and breaking through the ceiling everyone tries to put on him. Keep doubting him though...
That’s not true. Arguably Manning’s three best seasons came AFTER his major neck and shoulder surgeries. In the final four games of 2014 and all of 2015, when he really started to fall off, he had a mix of lower body injuries including a thigh injury and plantar fasciitis (I thought this was another word for turf toe but maybe I’m incorrect there).

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:10 pm

All of that stemmed from his neck injury. The surgery wasn't a permanent fix it just allowed him more time, but it was inevitable that it would cause issues down the road.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby ajf235 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:12 pm

Was gonna say Metcalf to Oakland but then I remembered that Carr doesn’t like throwing to WRs anymore, as Jared Cook led the team in receiving yards this past year and I don’t think a single WR had over 600 yards.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:19 pm

I'm not going to say I like anyone to Oakland until I see Gruden actually draft and develop a good player for once. All his success came with veteran players he inherited with the job. The Mayock hire does give me some hope for them being able to identify good prospects though.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby Space Cowboy » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:21 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:19 pm I'm not going to say I like anyone to Oakland until I see Gruden actually draft and develop a good player for once. All his success came with veteran players he inherited with the job. The Mayock hire does give me some hope for them being able to identify good prospects though.
Mayock called Bradford one of the best QB prospects he had ever seen. We all have our misses, but yikes......

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:22 pm

Ya no one is perfect certainly, and it's a tough job, but he has a better track record than most.

Bradford also was constantly injured and going through new systems. There were several times he flashed his potential and played very well, but then just got hurt. There's no way to really predict an injury history like that.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby Space Cowboy » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:31 pm

bjd5211 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:22 pm Ya no one is perfect certainly, and it's a tough job, but he has a better track record than most.

Bradford also was constantly injured and going through new systems. There were several times he flashed his potential and played very well, but then just got hurt. There's no way to really predict an injury history like that.
Rams dumped him. Eagles dumped him. Vikings dumped him. Cardinals dumped him. He was always banged up but aside from Minnesota it was his play that sent him packing in all his spots. Even that year in Minnesota was overrated with his high completion % and non existent YPA.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:36 pm

I'm well aware of his career and not arguing he's a Hall of Famer....

He got cut because he didn't perform, and he didn't perform largely because he couldn't stay healthy. It happens. He's far from the worst QB bust of all-time.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby Vcize » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:44 pm

ajf235 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:19 pm Also, the logic that Brady likes TEs and Rodgers doesn’t is way overblown imo. Jermichael Finley was producing like a top 5 TE before he got hurt and Jimmy Graham is not the elite talent he was a few years ago. Brady has has stud TEs to work with the past 8 years. Prior to Gronk/that other criminal TE being drafted in like 2010, people would’ve said Brady doesn’t like his TEs because he only threw to Welker and Moss.

These guys make do with the talent that’s available to them and Rodgers hasn’t had an elite TE for any significant duration of time.

It’s like saying that Kurt Warner loved throwing to RBs when in reality he just had an all-time great pass catching back in Marshall Faulk.
This is oversimplified.

People have been speculating that GB is a great landing spot for all these TEs for the better part of a decade now, and every one of them disappoints. Every time it's "they haven't had a TE like this guy before". Then that guy stinks, and goes somewhere else where he magically plays better, and everyone moves on to the next TE that is so lucky to land in the TE goldmine of GB.

Jimmy Graham wasn't notably worse as a player in 2018 than he was in 2017, but he had 2 TDs with GB after putting up 10 TDs in Seattle on an offense that threw 70% as often. Jared Cook has played for some miserable teams outside of GB, yet his per game numbers were better with the Rams (before they moved to LA and got good) and Raiders than they were with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.

Martellus Bennett didn't have many healthy games in GB but again, his per game numbers in GB were worse than his per game numbers elsewhere.

Yes, Jermichael Finley did manage to pull off one magical Kyle Rudolph-esque season in Green Bay. Whoopdee doo da.

We don't really need to speculate on this because we've seen most of GBs TEs from the last 10 years play elsewhere. And not only was playing in GB not a significant boost to their numbers, in almost all cases it resulted in a decrease in their per game numbers, albeit usually with small sample sizes because the guy who "THIS TIME IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT!!!!", simply wasn't.
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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby ajf235 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:10 pm

Vcize wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:44 pm
ajf235 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 2:19 pm Also, the logic that Brady likes TEs and Rodgers doesn’t is way overblown imo. Jermichael Finley was producing like a top 5 TE before he got hurt and Jimmy Graham is not the elite talent he was a few years ago. Brady has has stud TEs to work with the past 8 years. Prior to Gronk/that other criminal TE being drafted in like 2010, people would’ve said Brady doesn’t like his TEs because he only threw to Welker and Moss.

These guys make do with the talent that’s available to them and Rodgers hasn’t had an elite TE for any significant duration of time.

It’s like saying that Kurt Warner loved throwing to RBs when in reality he just had an all-time great pass catching back in Marshall Faulk.
This is oversimplified.

People have been speculating that GB is a great landing spot for all these TEs for the better part of a decade now, and every one of them disappoints. Every time it's "they haven't had a TE like this guy before". Then that guy stinks, and goes somewhere else where he magically plays better, and everyone moves on to the next TE that is so lucky to land in the TE goldmine of GB.

Jimmy Graham wasn't notably worse as a player in 2018 than he was in 2017, but he had 2 TDs with GB after putting up 10 TDs in Seattle on an offense that threw 70% as often. Jared Cook has played for some miserable teams outside of GB, yet his per game numbers were better with the Rams (before they moved to LA and got good) and Raiders than they were with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay.

Martellus Bennett didn't have many healthy games in GB but again, his per game numbers in GB were worse than his per game numbers elsewhere.

Yes, Jermichael Finley did manage to pull off one magical Kyle Rudolph-esque season in Green Bay. Whoopdee doo da.

We don't really need to speculate on this because we've seen most of GBs TEs from the last 10 years play elsewhere. And not only was playing in GB not a significant boost to their numbers, in almost all cases it resulted in a decrease in their per game numbers, albeit usually with small sample sizes because the guy who "THIS TIME IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT!!!!", simply wasn't.
You make a good argument. I’ll give you that. But all of the guys you mention were in the fading parts of their careers when they came to GB. There hasn’t been an instance in Rodger’s tenure where Green Bay drafted a TE in the first two rounds and that TE played out the prime of his career with Rodgers. So if GB did decide to draft someone like Noah Fant then there’s no good example we can compare it to and thus we can’t write them off as a bad or overrated fantasy asset solely based on the fact that they’re in Green Bay.

In fact, the closest comparable to that scenario is Jermichael Finlay, who suffered a lot of injuries throughout his career but nonetheless was averaging 51.3 ypg, 3.9 rpc, and 0.41 TDs per game from 2009-2011. When those figures are expanded to a full 16-game season (which he would’ve played if not for injury), he would’ve seen an average of seasonal finish of 62-821-7 during that three year period, good for 9.5 half PPR points per game, which would make him a top 5-7 TE in most years.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby darewood11 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:02 pm

I don't think any wr in Oakland is good as long as Carr is the QB. I was thinking Oakland had found a qb but I have serious doubts now.

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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby flyersfan1981 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:16 pm

Jigga94 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:15 am QB - NYG
RB - KC, BAL
WR - CLE, IND, OAK
TE - NE

I like the call someone made with TE to NE. If Gronk is done, I could see everyone viewing a NE drafted TE on day 1 or 2 as the next Gronk
Then all New England needs is the next Tom Brady...
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Re: Top ‘19 Rookie Scenarios (talent + situation)

Postby flyersfan1981 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:36 pm

ajf235 wrote: Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:12 pm Was gonna say Metcalf to Oakland but then I remembered that Carr doesn’t like throwing to WRs anymore, as Jared Cook led the team in receiving yards this past year and I don’t think a single WR had over 600 yards.
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