My top-10 WRs in the 2019 class (pre-combine)

[Orenthal Shames]

Brown comps more to Tavon Austin than Hilton, Lockett or DJax

[Ice]

Finally made it through this entire thread. Interesting takes on several players.

While I am still in evaluation mode, today I see 2 WR's in tier 1 that look to have the game to translate at the NFL level above the others. My top 2 could be studs by year 3.

My top 3.
1) D.K. Metcalf: While he has a bit of injury history, he is an athletic freak. Shows Incredible burst and footwork. Great catch radius and the strength to dominate press corners. Looks like an Ideal X WR. Reminds me of T.O. from yesteryear on film. By year 3 he has the look of a top 5 NFL WR. Location will not matter much given his game. He also comes from a solid NFL background. Father played 9 seasons in the NFL and is a coach. Cousin is Eric Metcalf. D.K. Comes into the league already with a network of what it takes to succeed. He is a better athlete than his father and Cousin. UPSIDE is off the charts rare.

2) Marquise Brown: While a very different type player than D.K. Brown's athletic ability and route running jumps off the page. He has great vision and his start stop ability and gear changes in route running looks elite. While he gets video game open much like Tyreek Hill his route running reminds me a lot of his Antonio. Looks NFL ready out of the gate and while he needs to add a bit of bulk in his lower body I have no concerns about his size given the schemes being run in today's NFL. On a side note, when evaluating him I went back and read the scouting reports on his cousin Antonio and the same things being said about Marquise were being said about Antonio. Not a player to sleep on. In one league I hold the top 2 picks and he is in play with Jacobs at 1.2 for me. I could see moving him to my top WR in fantasy based on location. O coordinators are going love this guy due to versatility out wide and in the slot.

3) N'Keal Harry: Harry is another ideal X type WR that shows very good awareness. I see him as a mid range possession type. He does have some suddenness to him which is good for a player his size. His short area quickness is really good. I have some concerns with him getting open deep but as his route running improves he translates to NFL WR1. I have seen a few AJ Green comparisons, NOT BUYING that at all but he does compare a bit to Alshon. Harry plays hard and his catch point is above average. Think the risk with him is separation which could improve with learning the nuances of route running. His upper body moves off the line are good but route footwork needs improvement.
No red flags I see with this player. Plays with desire which is an underrated trait. Has the skills to get much better as he learns the game.

[Cameron Giles]

Brown comps more to Tavon Austin than Hilton, Lockett or DJax

Tavon couldn't run a route, create separation or beat press to save his life. Brown is arguably the best route runner and separator in this class. The injury puts a damper on his outlook, but the comparisons to gadget players don't make any sense. He's closer to a Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs type of player.

[Cameron Giles]

Seems like a late 2nd round rookie pick now. Wasn't a fan of how small he was to start with, now we wont have any measurables to compare him with.

He has tons of tape. Marquise Brown looks like a cross between Brandon Cooks and a lighter version of Tyreek Hill on film. Brown plays outside a ton. Probably close to 70% of the time. It is pipe dream thinking he will be a late 2nd round pick IMO.

I think he is a lock 1st round fantasy pick and could go in the 1st round of the draft. Can't see him slipping too late in the 2nd. His injury isn't that big of deal. I am sure teams will do their due diligence on surgery follow up but the tape doesn't lie. He has a lot of polish and can play outside and inside at the NFL level.

I Hold the 2.1 in a draft and would love to see him fall that far but I don't see it.

Per Mizelle's rankings which are pulled from MLF mock drafts, he was going #14 overall in this class before the news of his injury.

Also, it's foolish to think his injury isn't a big deal. There are numerous examples of NFL WRs with the lisfranc injury that had to have 1-2 cleanup surgeries after the original surgery and most of them took over a year to get back to full production from a fantasy football perspective.

Plus he'll be entering his rookie season with less practice reps and less conditioning than his teammates. Increased risk of a new injury, I could go on and on. A great example could be Corey Davis, his injury was far less severe entering the draft and he still didn't look great his rookie season. You could blame it on lack of practice or conditioning or something else, but he was in a similar situation as Brown is right now and it hasn't worked out for him very well.

I would much rather pass on him in this draft class and buy him at a discount next offseason.

I'd question how many people have watched Brown if he was going #14 in rookie drafts before the injury. A bunch of draft experts had him as the first or 2nd WR off the board.

[Ice]

Brown comps more to Tavon Austin than Hilton, Lockett or DJax

I would be interested to hear your take on comping him to Tavon Austin?

I don't see that as a remotely close comparison. Tavon was/is arguably a better RB than WR. He only has 202 career receptions and 190 rushing attempts.

In Austin, I don't see a player that runs effective routes especially on deep routes. In college he averaged less than 12 yards per reception, in the pros that dropped to 9.1. Between college and pros Tavon ran the ball 300 times. Brown on the other hand has averaged 18.3 yards on his 132 receptions in college with 3 career rushing attempts in college.

Austin is 5'8" Brown is 5'10"
They both do run really fast.

What am I missing?

[Orenthal Shames]

Brown comps more to Tavon Austin than Hilton, Lockett or DJax

Tavon couldn't run a route, create separation or beat press to save his life. Brown is arguably the best route runner and separator in this class. The injury puts a damper on his outlook, but the comparisons to gadget players don't make any sense. He's closer to a Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs type of player.

Cooks/Diggs weigh 20+ lbs more, were nearly 1.5x as productive in terms of market share/dominator, and both had excellent BA's.

[Orenthal Shames]

Brown comps more to Tavon Austin than Hilton, Lockett or DJax

I would be interested to hear your take on comping him to Tavon Austin?

I don't see that as a remotely close comparison. Tavon was/is arguably a better RB than WR. He only has 202 career receptions and 190 rushing attempts.

In Austin, I don't see a player that runs effective routes especially on deep routes. In college he averaged less than 12 yards per reception, in the pros that dropped to 9.1. Between college and pros Tavon ran the ball 300 times. Brown on the other hand has averaged 18.3 yards on his 132 receptions in college with 3 career rushing attempts in college.

Austin is 5'8" Brown is 5'10"
They both do run really fast.

What am I missing?

Pro stats aren't involved in the comp. They're based on height, weight, age, market share/dominator rating and breakout age.

His closest comps were Tavon, Titus Young, Tevin Reese and JJ Nelson.

[Ice]

Brown comps more to Tavon Austin than Hilton, Lockett or DJax

Tavon couldn't run a route, create separation or beat press to save his life. Brown is arguably the best route runner and separator in this class. The injury puts a damper on his outlook, but the comparisons to gadget players don't make any sense. He's closer to a Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs type of player.

Cooks/Diggs weigh 20+ lbs more, were nearly 1.5x as productive in college in terms of market share/dominator, and both had excellent BA's.

My 4 closest comps were Austin, Titus Young, JJ Nelson and Tevin Reese.

Market Share Dominator? Lots of holes in that IMO.

The Sooners had 2 1000 yard WR's last year. Brown ranked 8th in the NCAA in Yards (1318) and his counter part Lamb, ranked 18th. Cooks had a great last year but nothing really on the other side I suspect. The Sooners have one of the most diverse passing attacks in college football and Brown didn't even break out until he was inserted in the starting line up a few games in with Mayfield in 2017

Brown's 2017 year compared to player X best college year
Brown 57 Receptions 1095 7 TD's 19.2
Player X 58 Receptions 1152 8 TD's 19.5

Player x is 1 inch taller, older, and was just under 200 entering the league. Market share didn't mean much to him either.


Player X is Odell Beckham.

[Cameron Giles]

Brown comps more to Tavon Austin than Hilton, Lockett or DJax

Tavon couldn't run a route, create separation or beat press to save his life. Brown is arguably the best route runner and separator in this class. The injury puts a damper on his outlook, but the comparisons to gadget players don't make any sense. He's closer to a Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs type of player.

Cooks/Diggs weigh 20+ lbs more, were nearly 1.5x as productive in terms of market share/dominator, and both had excellent BA's.

Put down the numbers and watch the games. Brown plays nothing like Tavon Austin. Market share is useful, but it's an uncontrollable stat by receivers. Too much goes into the WR position for that number to be the be-all.

And Brown's breakout age is irrelevant considering he didn't start playing D1 until he was 20. Brown can run every route in the book, is arguably the best separator in this class, has better play strength than advertised, gets great releases off the line and wins at all three levels of the field. Tavon was a gimmick player who needed touches manufactured for him.

[Orenthal Shames]

Tavon couldn't run a route, create separation or beat press to save his life. Brown is arguably the best route runner and separator in this class. The injury puts a damper on his outlook, but the comparisons to gadget players don't make any sense. He's closer to a Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs type of player.

Cooks/Diggs weigh 20+ lbs more, were nearly 1.5x as productive in college in terms of market share/dominator, and both had excellent BA's.

My 4 closest comps were Austin, Titus Young, JJ Nelson and Tevin Reese.

Market Share Dominator? Lots of holes in that IMO.

The Sooners had 2 1000 yard WR's last year. Brown ranked 8th in the NCAA in Yards (1318) and his counter part Lamb, ranked 18th. Cooks had a great last year but nothing really on the other side I suspect. The Sooners have one of the most diverse passing attacks in college football and Brown didn't even break out until he was inserted in the starting line up a few games in with Mayfield in 2017

Brown's 2017 year compared to player X best college year
Brown 57 Receptions 1095 7 TD's 19.2
Player X 58 Receptions 1152 8 TD's 19.5

Player x is 1 inch taller, older, and was just under 200 entering the league. Market share didn't mean much to him either.


Player X is Odell Beckham.

There's holes in every aspect of rookie analysis. We've had another version of this debate before. It basically boils down to tape vs analytics.

College WR is particularly tough because there isn't a defensive talent baseline like there is in the NFL.

I'm not a scout, so I can't differentiate or quantify the difference in a player running routes against CBs from Alabama vs Virginia vs South East Missouri State.

[Orenthal Shames]

Tavon couldn't run a route, create separation or beat press to save his life. Brown is arguably the best route runner and separator in this class. The injury puts a damper on his outlook, but the comparisons to gadget players don't make any sense. He's closer to a Brandin Cooks/Stefon Diggs type of player.

Cooks/Diggs weigh 20+ lbs more, were nearly 1.5x as productive in terms of market share/dominator, and both had excellent BA's.

Put down the numbers and watch the games. Brown plays nothing like Tavon Austin. Market share is useful, but it's an uncontrollable stat by receivers. Too much goes into the WR position for that number to be the be-all.

And Brown's breakout age is irrelevant considering he didn't start playing D1 until he was 20. Brown can run every route in the book, is arguably the best separator in this class, has better play strength than advertised, gets great releases off the line and wins at all three levels of the field. Tavon was a gimmick player who needed touches manufactured for him.

Ain't nobody got time for that

In all honesty, I haven't sat and watched a whole football game in probably 5 years.

[Farley]

Finally made it through this entire thread. Interesting takes on several players.

While I am still in evaluation mode, today I see 2 WR's in tier 1 that look to have the game to translate at the NFL level above the others. My top 2 could be studs by year 3.

My top 3.
1) D.K. Metcalf: While he has a bit of injury history, he is an athletic freak. Shows Incredible burst and footwork. Great catch radius and the strength to dominate press corners. Looks like an Ideal X WR. Reminds me of T.O. from yesteryear on film. By year 3 he has the look of a top 5 NFL WR. Location will not matter much given his game. He also comes from a solid NFL background. Father played 9 seasons in the NFL and is a coach. Cousin is Eric Metcalf. D.K. Comes into the league already with a network of what it takes to succeed. He is a better athlete than his father and Cousin. UPSIDE is off the charts rare.

2) Marquise Brown: While a very different type player than D.K. Brown's athletic ability and route running jumps off the page. He has great vision and his start stop ability and gear changes in route running looks elite. While he gets video game open much like Tyreek Hill his route running reminds me a lot of his Antonio. Looks NFL ready out of the gate and while he needs to add a bit of bulk in his lower body I have no concerns about his size given the schemes being run in today's NFL. On a side note, when evaluating him I went back and read the scouting reports on his cousin Antonio and the same things being said about Marquise were being said about Antonio. Not a player to sleep on. In one league I hold the top 2 picks and he is in play with Jacobs at 1.2 for me. I could see moving him to my top WR in fantasy based on location. O coordinators are going love this guy due to versatility out wide and in the slot.

3) N'Keal Harry: Harry is another ideal X type WR that shows very good awareness. I see him as a mid range possession type. He does have some suddenness to him which is good for a player his size. His short area quickness is really good. I have some concerns with him getting open deep but as his route running improves he translates to NFL WR1. I have seen a few AJ Green comparisons, NOT BUYING that at all but he does compare a bit to Alshon. Harry plays hard and his catch point is above average. Think the risk with him is separation which could improve with learning the nuances of route running. His upper body moves off the line are good but route footwork needs improvement.
No red flags I see with this player. Plays with desire which is an underrated trait. Has the skills to get much better as he learns the game.

Is there any Anquon Boldin in N'Keal's game?

[Ice]

Is there any Anquon Boldin in N'Keal's game?

Not a comp I would use. Boldin had a wild man intensity to his game and his lower body strength was incredibly impressive. Boldin IMO was a much better route runner that accelerated out of breaks. Harry seems to slow down out of breaks. They play a pretty different game IMO.

The one thing they both do well is fight for the ball in traffic which is similar but that's about it. Doubt his career will match Boldin's. Boldin is one of the toughest players to ever play the position IMO.

[Huh]

I just noticed something. There are 162 comments in this thread. Hollywood weighs 162. What does this mean?

[mild]

I just noticed something. There are 162 comments in this thread. Hollywood weighs 162. What does this mean?

162 lbs = 1x6/2 = 3
3 + 16.2 = 19.2 yards average target
3 / 16.2 / 19.2 = 3/6/9
3+6+9 = 6x3
6x3 = 666

ILLUMINATI CONFIRMED