Damien Williams - convince me

[BradyT]

I just sold Williams for a 2020 1st in a league where I have the following roster:

Mariota,Car
Saquon,Gurley,Fournette,Carson,Foreman
Odell,Evans,AJ Green, Landry,Kirk,Shepard(NYG)
Ertz

other team has

Mahomes
Fournette(its a league with multiple leagues and copies within),Drake,DWilliams
Thomas(NO),CDavis(TEN),Kirk,Woods

With a bit of luck this could really be a good pick.

[boots]

Is he going to be worth the 6th pick this year? He was somehow still on waivers when the season ended so he can be drafted. Rebuild team fwiw.

[Huh]

Is he going to be worth the 6th pick this year? He was somehow still on waivers when the season ended so he can be drafted. Rebuild team fwiw.

Well know post draft. If I was a contender and somehow had a high pick I would draft him very high. Short sighted some would say but nobody in this draft will produce more than him this year if he is the starter. Not even close most likely. Actually I think he’s the starter regardless, so draft away.

[thebeast]

OMG, this is de ja vu. West,Ware, Rawls, Collins... Even if the Chiefs don't spend a pick on a rb Williams isn't a safe bet.

[Huh]

OMG, this is de ja vu. West,Ware, Rawls, Collins... Even if the Chiefs don't spend a pick on a rb Williams isn't a safe bet.

Dude if they don’t spend a pick, the only danger of him not being productive is injury and that’s the same as any player. And you just listed off a bunch players that are sub level receivers. Williams is not that.

[thebeast]

OMG, this is de ja vu. West,Ware, Rawls, Collins... Even if the Chiefs don't spend a pick on a rb Williams isn't a safe bet.

Dude if they don’t spend a pick, the only danger of him not being productive is injury and that’s the same as any player. And you just listed off a bunch players that are sub level receivers. Williams is not that.

William is a sub level rb. You are again projecting what you want to happen and hope will happen, but not what will probably happen. What will probably happen is his value will plummet back into obscurity at some point next season as another RB from inside or outside the organization out performs him.

[Huh]

OMG, this is de ja vu. West,Ware, Rawls, Collins... Even if the Chiefs don't spend a pick on a rb Williams isn't a safe bet.

Dude if they don’t spend a pick, the only danger of him not being productive is injury and that’s the same as any player. And you just listed off a bunch players that are sub level receivers. Williams is not that.

William is a sub level rb. You are again projecting what you want to happen and hope will happen, but not what will probably happen. What will probably happen is his value will plummet back into obscurity at some point next season as another RB from inside or outside the organization out performs him.

All we do is project outcomes. It’s the game. I was listening to a pod cast (from this site I believe) and I heard somebody say that the bengals would be a good spot for leveon bell (what?). If that were to happen mixon would be ruined. There are only a few backs that are true number ones so should we be running away from every other one. If it works out for Williams he’s in one the top situations. That’s huge. Don’t pay huge prices and sell if you can get them but a mid/late first has less than a 50% chance of hitting. Is Williams chance of hitting worse than that?

[Cameron Giles]

OMG, this is de ja vu. West,Ware, Rawls, Collins... Even if the Chiefs don't spend a pick on a rb Williams isn't a safe bet.

This isn't flowing. If Williams is healthy and enters Week 1 as the clear cut RB1 on the team, how can anyone say that he isn't a safe bet?

Week 12 - 5 car, 38 yards, 2 rec, 7 yards (5.8 PPR)
Week 13 - 8 car, 14 yards, 4 rec, 16 yards, 2 TD (19 PPR)
Week 14 - 10 car, 49 yards, 6 rec, 74 yards, 2 TD (30.3 PPR)
Week 15 - 13 car, 103 yards, 7 rec, 37 yards, 1 TD (27 PPR)
Week 16 - 11 car, 51 yards, 1 rec, 8 yards, 1 TD (12.9 PPR)
Playoffs G1 - 25 car, 129 yards, 5 rec, 25 yards, 1 TD (26.4 PPR)
Playoffs G2 - 10 car, 30 yards, 5 rec, 66 yards, 3 TD (32.6 PPR)

If we're strictly talking the best case scenario, I don't see how he isn't one of the easiest starts in fantasy. His floor is high because of his receiving ability in a pass-heavy offense.

He's definitely not the RB of the future, which is important to understand for dynasty purposes. But, if you're a contender, he's worth losing out on a potential first round pick for because of the ceiling involved.

[thebeast]

Ground hog day. Stop me if you’ve heard this one, career journey man backup blows up for a few games and everyone goes crazy and over values him (and dlf writer pronounce him overall RB9 or something) and then reality sets in....

[Cameron Giles]

Ground hog day. Stop me if you’ve heard this one, career journey man backup blows up for a few games and everyone goes crazy and over values him (and dlf writer pronounce him overall RB9 or something) and then reality sets in....

You're 100% right. Outside of the elite RB's, it's a carousel of talent flashing here and there and fading into obscurity. RB is the most expendable position in the league and has constant turnover.

However, if your goal is to win next season, then why are you trading a player that potentially could help win you a lot of weeks? Yes, the bottom could drop out, but that can happen for any RB because of injury or poor performance. It's worth remembering that Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and Leonard Fournette were all non-factors in the fantasy playoffs at various points last season.

So, Damien Williams eventually fades back. What did you miss out on? It's not like a lot of people are buying right now anyway.

[thebeast]

Ground hog day. Stop me if you’ve heard this one, career journey man backup blows up for a few games and everyone goes crazy and over values him (and dlf writer pronounce him overall RB9 or something) and then reality sets in....

You're 100% right. Outside of the elite RB's, it's a carousel of talent flashing here and there and fading into obscurity. RB is the most expendable position in the league and has constant turnover.

However, if your goal is to win next season, then why are you trading a player that potentially could help win you a lot of weeks? Yes, the bottom could drop out, but that can happen for any RB because of injury or poor performance. It's worth remembering that Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and Leonard Fournette were all non-factors in the fantasy playoffs at various points last season.

So, Damien Williams eventually fades back. What did you miss out on? It's not like a lot of people are buying right now anyway.

If you have an opportunity to sell now and ‘throw a dart’ at a first round talent you should do it. Because you have a better chance at hitting the next late pick like OBj, Kamara, Hunt than you do hoping a guy like Williams becomes a long term thing. Sell high, right?

[FiremanEd]

You mention long-term, while Giles mentions win-now. You can both be right, and I think both are. Either can be a burn. Sometimes you lose out rolling the dice. Sometimes you whiff on a draft pick. Sure you have more insulation with the draft selection, but you may miss out on a championship just for an extended opportunity to sell your Laquon Treadwell.

I personally am torn. I like to win. Got to pick your spots.

[Huh]

Ground hog day. Stop me if you’ve heard this one, career journey man backup blows up for a few games and everyone goes crazy and over values him (and dlf writer pronounce him overall RB9 or something) and then reality sets in....

You're 100% right. Outside of the elite RB's, it's a carousel of talent flashing here and there and fading into obscurity. RB is the most expendable position in the league and has constant turnover.

However, if your goal is to win next season, then why are you trading a player that potentially could help win you a lot of weeks? Yes, the bottom could drop out, but that can happen for any RB because of injury or poor performance. It's worth remembering that Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman and Leonard Fournette were all non-factors in the fantasy playoffs at various points last season.

So, Damien Williams eventually fades back. What did you miss out on? It's not like a lot of people are buying right now anyway.

If you have an opportunity to sell now and ‘throw a dart’ at a first round talent you should do it. Because you have a better chance at hitting the next late pick like OBj, Kamara, Hunt than you do hoping a guy like Williams becomes a long term thing. Sell high, right?

Of course sell high. A guy in that league said he wanted Williams but wouldn’t give up his first and discussions broke down quickly after. So in that scenario, a sell high scenario doesn’t exist, or at least hasn’t presented itself yet. We all say sell sell sell but dynasty has no secrets anymore. We all have access to the same info so the concerns you have are shared by millions. You just have to be lucky enough to have the right guy in that league. That’s why trading for someone in order to flip them is a dangerous practice. There’s no guarantee that that flip exists in that particular leagues reality.

[thebeast]

I guess arguing concepts is stupid. I say sell him for top 18ish pick and buy for 19 and beyond if you think he can help you contend. Don’t buy for a first and don’t miss an opportunity to sell for a first.

If you own him and can’t get more than a random 2nd then I have no problem with you holding and hoping.

[ArrylT]

I guess arguing concepts is stupid. I say sell him for top 18ish pick and buy for 19 and beyond if you think he can help you contend. Don’t buy for a first and don’t miss an opportunity to sell for a first.

If you own him and can’t get more than a random 2nd then I have no problem with you holding and hoping.

I cannot even get that in DLF HOF.