Peterson / Guice in DC

[Jfever]

I don't understand how everyone can be so certain of a guy who missed a full year, had injury complications, and hasn't played an NFL snap. It just boggles my mind. We don't even know what he looks like in an NFL game yet.

Well this guy was seen as the consensus 1.02 rookie pick in a loaded RB class and over the past four years, highly drafted rookie RBs who have been given the opportunity have generally shined very early in the career, except for RoJo (who everyone and their mother knew was a bust) and a few others. However, given that Guice’s competition is a 34 year old guy and arguably the most injury-prone scatback in the league I like his situation better than most “rookie” RBs.

And I know it’s a small sample size, but Melvin Gordon’s bad rookie season could’ve been foreshadowed if you paid attention to his rookie preseason. In that one carry that Guice injured himself, he showed what he’s truly capable of and it was way better than any of MGIII’s preseason carries as a rookie.

Now.... this isn't something I'd even have included. I thought we were on the same page till you take meaning toward an opinion from ONE carry. All NFL players have ability, ALL are athletes. EVERY Rb in the NFL was likely a stud somewhere before he found himself on an NFL team. You said it is a small sample size but... then you said but. statistics, trends, and data sample sizes of a large size are required / needed in order to make correlations. 1 bounce it outside carry in an NFL preseason game and MGIII's ability / lack of ability etc. Bottom line is - there is just no correlation to be found in this above bolded statement.

Guice may be a stud, and I genuinely hope he finds success. But, I wouldn't base that off of the one carry he had in a preseason game. Simple as that.

[FantasyFreak]

I don't understand how everyone can be so certain of a guy who missed a full year, had injury complications, and hasn't played an NFL snap. It just boggles my mind. We don't even know what he looks like in an NFL game yet.

Well this guy was seen as the consensus 1.02 rookie pick in a loaded RB class and over the past four years, highly drafted rookie RBs who have been given the opportunity have generally shined very early in the career, except for RoJo (who everyone and their mother knew was a bust) and a few others. However, given that Guice’s competition is a 34 year old guy and arguably the most injury-prone scatback in the league I like his situation better than most “rookie” RBs.

And I know it’s a small sample size, but Melvin Gordon’s bad rookie season could’ve been foreshadowed if you paid attention to his rookie preseason. In that one carry that Guice injured himself, he showed what he’s truly capable of and it was way better than any of MGIII’s preseason carries as a rookie.

Now.... this isn't something I'd even have included. I thought we were on the same page till you take meaning toward an opinion from ONE carry. All NFL players have ability, ALL are athletes. EVERY Rb in the NFL was likely a stud somewhere before he found himself on an NFL team. You said it is a small sample size but... then you said but. statistics, trends, and data sample sizes of a large size are required / needed in order to make correlations. 1 bounce it outside carry in an NFL preseason game and MGIII's ability / lack of ability etc. Bottom line is - there is just no correlation to be found in this above bolded statement.

Guice may be a stud, and I genuinely hope he finds success. But, I wouldn't base that off of the one carry he had in a preseason game. Simple as that.

You mean that one carry where the play was created because of A HOLDING PENALTY!?? LOL. I think Guice is a good back, but that play didn't even count. He did some nice work against a smaller player in the open field after that hold, but that one run didn't even count. We just don't have enough to work on with Guice. That run only showed he was capable of beating a DB in the open field, which countless RB's at the NFL level can do. It did not showcase any vision or anything at the line of scrimmage, other than he has the ability to run through a massive hole, which again, countless RB's can do.

[Jigga94]

If we judged every back on their best run, they would all be the greatest... Except RoJo

[ajf235]

I don't understand how everyone can be so certain of a guy who missed a full year, had injury complications, and hasn't played an NFL snap. It just boggles my mind. We don't even know what he looks like in an NFL game yet.

Well this guy was seen as the consensus 1.02 rookie pick in a loaded RB class and over the past four years, highly drafted rookie RBs who have been given the opportunity have generally shined very early in the career, except for RoJo (who everyone and their mother knew was a bust) and a few others. However, given that Guice’s competition is a 34 year old guy and arguably the most injury-prone scatback in the league I like his situation better than most “rookie” RBs.

And I know it’s a small sample size, but Melvin Gordon’s bad rookie season could’ve been foreshadowed if you paid attention to his rookie preseason. In that one carry that Guice injured himself, he showed what he’s truly capable of and it was way better than any of MGIII’s preseason carries as a rookie.

Now.... this isn't something I'd even have included. I thought we were on the same page till you take meaning toward an opinion from ONE carry. All NFL players have ability, ALL are athletes. EVERY Rb in the NFL was likely a stud somewhere before he found himself on an NFL team. You said it is a small sample size but... then you said but. statistics, trends, and data sample sizes of a large size are required / needed in order to make correlations. 1 bounce it outside carry in an NFL preseason game and MGIII's ability / lack of ability etc. Bottom line is - there is just no correlation to be found in this above bolded statement.

Guice may be a stud, and I genuinely hope he finds success. But, I wouldn't base that off of the one carry he had in a preseason game. Simple as that.

Yeah I realized it was a pretty bold assertion right after I said it. I agree with you that it’s way too small of a sample size. I do think that preseason is a very good indicator of how good a first-year RB could be in the NFL though.

Those paying close attention to Kamara and Gordon in their rookie preseasons could have foreseen Kamara’s upside and Gordon’s lack of upside in their rookie years. This is why I was especially shocked that Royce was a bust in fantasy this year. Kerryon crushed it the preseason too which would’ve foreshadowed his upside this past year.

You’re right that we can’t give much weight to Guice’s one carry from 2018 preseason to project his upside. But I think how he performs in the 2019 preseason (if he plays) will be very informative of what his upside is at the next level in the NFL.

[Jfever]

Yes, the 2019 preseason will be helpful for Guice, that is for sure. Typically though, I'd caution someone when taking too much from preseason. Remember, most defenses are a bit vanilla, there are more generic plays called, all in all, it isn't the same. For Guice though, he is coming off of an ACL and for us to be able to see him run, cut, get hit, get back up, etc, will be helpful. Other than that, I don't or wouldn't take a lot of worth from a handful of snaps in a next to meaningless matchup in August. If you would have dug your heals on on taking meaning from MGIII's first few preseason games and thus passed hard on him, well, now, you'd be pissed because he is a top 5 dynasty rb. Sometimes one must execute some patience and one has to know how to weigh the value of information / where / when it comes from.

[ajf235]

Yes, the 2019 preseason will be helpful for Guice, that is for sure. Typically though, I'd caution someone when taking too much from preseason. Remember, most defenses are a bit vanilla, there are more generic plays called, all in all, it isn't the same. For Guice though, he is coming off of an ACL and for us to be able to see him run, cut, get hit, get back up, etc, will be helpful. Other than that, I don't or wouldn't take a lot of worth from a handful of snaps in a next to meaningless matchup in August. If you would have dug your heals on on taking meaning from MGIII's first few preseason games and thus passed hard on him, well, now, you'd be pissed because he is a top 5 dynasty rb. Sometimes one must execute some patience and one has to know how to weigh the value of information / where / when it comes from.

Haha I didn’t draft MG as a rookie and then drafted him in all keeper and redraft leagues his second year. Got Kamara as a rookie in my redraft leagues but I’m still kicking myself for not drafting him for $3 in my keeper league. After that preseason and given his skill set I thought he’d be a Sproles/bush type player in that offense but had Cook/DJ/MGIII already so I didn’t draft him. I never could’ve imagined he would’ve been as good as he was even though I thought 1200 scrimmage yards, 5-7 TDs and 60-70 receptions was a reasonable projection for him as a rookie.

[Patsfan86]

The injury news always scares me, as do RBs in general unless they are drafted in the first round (even then Penny). We have seen it over and over where an RB has one shot, misses it and never gets playing time, this season could have been his one shot and he missed it. With that and the injury issue in mind I sold Guice for Kerryon and im happier since I feel I wont have to worry. I understand at this time last year and up until the season Guice was looked at as a far better prospect than Kerryon but I have been burned by RBs numerous times (I hate the position soooo much) and I decided Kerryon was a better option. With that said and with my luck I fully expect the Lions to sign Bell in the offseason

[ninotoreS]

If we judged every back on their best run, they would all be the greatest... Except RoJo

Hey man, he had a 7-yard carry Week 4!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Jigga94]

If we judged every back on their best run, they would all be the greatest... Except RoJo

Hey man, he had a 7-yard carry Week 4!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He also had a TD one week that was called back by holding man!

[ajf235]

The injury news always scares me, as do RBs in general unless they are drafted in the first round (even then Penny). We have seen it over and over where an RB has one shot, misses it and never gets playing time, this season could have been his one shot and he missed it. With that and the injury issue in mind I sold Guice for Kerryon and im happier since I feel I wont have to worry. I understand at this time last year and up until the season Guice was looked at as a far better prospect than Kerryon but I have been burned by RBs numerous times (I hate the position soooo much) and I decided Kerryon was a better option. With that said and with my luck I fully expect the Lions to sign Bell in the offseason

You make a fair point, and if the Redskins had Chris Carson or Marlon Mack waiting in the wings, I’d say Guice may never get his shot. But that’s not the case. He should be fully healthy by preseason and I HIGHLY doubt the redskins draft another RB in the first two rounds. They’re not gonna ride AP forever and Chris Thompson will never be the lead guy. Guice has Cook/Mixon-level talent, they’re 100% gonna see what they have in him next year. If he has an awful season, yeah, it might be over for him, but unless that happens, I see no reason to think Guice won’t get his shot to prove himself.

Ameer Abdullah had similar draft pedigree to Guice and even after two injury-plagued seasons, he still got his shot at a starter’s workload in year 3.

Same thing with Tevin Coleman, who was drafted in the third round. He got overtaken by a 22-year old guy who was arguably considered the best RB in the league after Coleman’s injury-plagued rookie season, yet they still gave Coleman a sizeable workload and the following two years. Yeah, he never overtook Freeman but Freeman was a stud on his rookie contract. Totally different scenario from Guice vs AP.

[Patsfan86]

The injury news always scares me, as do RBs in general unless they are drafted in the first round (even then Penny). We have seen it over and over where an RB has one shot, misses it and never gets playing time, this season could have been his one shot and he missed it. With that and the injury issue in mind I sold Guice for Kerryon and im happier since I feel I wont have to worry. I understand at this time last year and up until the season Guice was looked at as a far better prospect than Kerryon but I have been burned by RBs numerous times (I hate the position soooo much) and I decided Kerryon was a better option. With that said and with my luck I fully expect the Lions to sign Bell in the offseason

You make a fair point, and if the Redskins had Chris Carson or Marlon Mack waiting in the wings, I’d say Guice may never get his shot. But that’s not the case. He should be fully healthy by preseason and I HIGHLY doubt the redskins draft another RB in the first two rounds. They’re not gonna ride AP forever and Chris Thompson will never be the lead guy. Guice has Cook/Mixon-level talent, they’re 100% gonna see what they have in him next year. If he has an awful season, yeah, it might be over for him, but unless that happens, I see no reason to think Guice won’t get his shot to prove himself.

Ameer Abdullah had similar draft pedigree to Guice and even after two injury-plagued seasons, he still got his shot at a starter’s workload in year 3.

Same thing with Tevin Coleman, who was drafted in the third round. He got overtaken by a 22-year old guy who was arguably considered the best RB in the league after Coleman’s injury-plagued rookie season, yet they still gave Coleman a sizeable workload and the following two years. Yeah, he never overtook Freeman but Freeman was a stud on his rookie contract. Totally different scenario from Guice vs AP.

For the most part im sure you are correct. I am just very paranoid about the RB position because I have been burned on it sooooo many times and I cant get it right. My RBs now are not powerhouses (Michel and Kerryon) but they are far better than years past (Crowell, Miller) (Collins, Ap). Ive just learned you have to be EXTREMELY careful with RBs and the injury news like this concerned me immediately. We all have different thoughts and experiences though. Guice probably will end up the stud many expect but its very hard for me at least to be so certain about it at this point.

[ajf235]

The injury news always scares me, as do RBs in general unless they are drafted in the first round (even then Penny). We have seen it over and over where an RB has one shot, misses it and never gets playing time, this season could have been his one shot and he missed it. With that and the injury issue in mind I sold Guice for Kerryon and im happier since I feel I wont have to worry. I understand at this time last year and up until the season Guice was looked at as a far better prospect than Kerryon but I have been burned by RBs numerous times (I hate the position soooo much) and I decided Kerryon was a better option. With that said and with my luck I fully expect the Lions to sign Bell in the offseason

You make a fair point, and if the Redskins had Chris Carson or Marlon Mack waiting in the wings, I’d say Guice may never get his shot. But that’s not the case. He should be fully healthy by preseason and I HIGHLY doubt the redskins draft another RB in the first two rounds. They’re not gonna ride AP forever and Chris Thompson will never be the lead guy. Guice has Cook/Mixon-level talent, they’re 100% gonna see what they have in him next year. If he has an awful season, yeah, it might be over for him, but unless that happens, I see no reason to think Guice won’t get his shot to prove himself.

Ameer Abdullah had similar draft pedigree to Guice and even after two injury-plagued seasons, he still got his shot at a starter’s workload in year 3.

Same thing with Tevin Coleman, who was drafted in the third round. He got overtaken by a 22-year old guy who was arguably considered the best RB in the league after Coleman’s injury-plagued rookie season, yet they still gave Coleman a sizeable workload and the following two years. Yeah, he never overtook Freeman but Freeman was a stud on his rookie contract. Totally different scenario from Guice vs AP.

For the most part im sure you are correct. I am just very paranoid about the RB position because I have been burned on it sooooo many times and I cant get it right. My RBs now are not powerhouses (Michel and Kerryon) but they are far better than years past (Crowell, Miller) (Collins, Ap). Ive just learned you have to be EXTREMELY careful with RBs and the injury news like this concerned me immediately. We all have different thoughts and experiences though. Guice probably will end up the stud many expect but its very hard for me at least to be so certain about it at this point.

Haha i get your perspective. I’m the opposite. I’m always making bold plays for RBs that often pay out but seem to have much less success with WRs. In the past few years, I’ve paid $20 in draft capital for Kenneth Dixon (after his rookie year) and traded MGIII (couldn’t keep) for Guice ($6) and Christian Kirk ($1) in week 6 of this year. The first was an obvious bust but I have yet to see if the latter works out (although I only lost 4 games of Melvin Gordon production and still made the playoffs so I don’t think it was a big loss).

On the other end, I’ve hit on Melvin Gordon (year 2), DJ (not that I predicted his breakout but I paid $60 for him in 2016 and everyone criticized me for it and I was right), Kamara (in some leagues), Dalvin Cook, Mixon, Mack, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Sony Michel and I traded Mahomes for Chubb and Goff literally a day before the Carlos Hyde trade, so I’m a lot more prone to take big risks or overdraft RBs given my track record.

[gogobradyarm]

On the other end, I’ve hit on Melvin Gordon (year 2), DJ (not that I predicted his breakout but I paid $60 for him in 2016 and everyone criticized me for it and I was right), Kamara (in some leagues), Dalvin Cook, Mixon, Mack, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Sony Michel and I traded Mahomes for Chubb and Goff literally a day before the Carlos Hyde trade, so I’m a lot more prone to take big risks or overdraft RBs given my track record.

You have good taste in RBs! In regards to Guice, I think the most likely scenario is that he struggles with his health in 2019, as most players take a couple years to get fully recovered due to overcompensation injuries to soft tissue. Hopefully i'm wrong, and AP can coach him through recovery a bit and teach him a thing or two about the RB position.

I also think Guice will struggles as the offense flutters and the box gets stacked with no competency at QB. The situation here is that the Redskins have a VERY bad contract in place with Alex Smith, who's career is most likely over. If they cut Smith in 2019, they'll take a whopping $42 million in dead cap! They're going to have a hard time bringing in any quality FA QB to open things up for the offense. Most likely scenario, the Skins tank for a QB in the 2020 draft, Guice has a down season but shows hope for the future.

If the skins draft a good qb in 2020, Guice will be an RB1, mark those words down.

/CrystalBall

[ajf235]

On the other end, I’ve hit on Melvin Gordon (year 2), DJ (not that I predicted his breakout but I paid $60 for him in 2016 and everyone criticized me for it and I was right), Kamara (in some leagues), Dalvin Cook, Mixon, Mack, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Sony Michel and I traded Mahomes for Chubb and Goff literally a day before the Carlos Hyde trade, so I’m a lot more prone to take big risks or overdraft RBs given my track record.

You have good taste in RBs! In regards to Guice, I think the most likely scenario is that he struggles with his health in 2019, as most players take a couple years to get fully recovered due to overcompensation injuries to soft tissue. Hopefully i'm wrong, and AP can coach him through recovery a bit and teach him a thing or two about the RB position.

I also think Guice will struggles as the offense flutters and the box gets stacked with no competency at QB. The situation here is that the Redskins have a VERY bad contract in place with Alex Smith, who's career is most likely over. If they cut Smith in 2019, they'll take a whopping $42 million in dead cap! They're going to have a hard time bringing in any quality FA QB to open things up for the offense. Most likely scenario, the Skins tank for a QB in the 2020 draft, Guice has a down season but shows hope for the future.

If the skins draft a good qb in 2020, Guice will be an RB1, mark those words down.

/CrystalBall

You make very solid points. Guice definitely is no lock to be a trustworthy fantasy asset in Washington in 2019 if they end up playing like the Cardinals did in 2018. Their o-line seems to be pretty strong if healthy but there’s a whole offseason ahead to see what kind of moves they make, so that’s no lock until we see what happens this offseason.

I’m probably more excited about Guice than most as I own for $7 on a $200 budget in 2019, and most likely $18 from 2020-2022. If I were doing a startup keeper league, I’d be very wary about paying $20-30 on Guice to be my RB2 in 2019. I probably still would in reality because I love Guice, but it could not fully pay off until 2020 regardless.

[jetsfan5757]

AP officially resigned with Washington. 2 years, 8 million with incentives. Doesn't say what the base or guarantees are. I don't know if this means that he will be extra upset if he doesn't play (making him unlikely to hit incentives) and force a trade, or if he realizes that there isn't a big market for him anymore and will therefore be a team guy and well behaved no matter what.

He actually ran pretty well last year. As a Guice owner I guess the good news is:
1. Even more unlikely they draft anyone at the position before the last few rounds
2. Good mentor: all time great RB, and someone who has had to come back from an ACL
3. Guice can be eased in the 1st half of the year if necessary
4. Not a threat to pass catching role until Thompson comes back, so we should see how Guice does with that...