Investing in 1.01 for the draft run up

[Elroypedro]

Consensus seems to be the 1.01(this could also apply to other high 1sts) will sharply increase in value leading towards the draft. I agree.

So once our seasons end in December and the draft order is set, is it a prudent move to buy the 1.01(and other high 1sts) for their then-current value and then hold to sell them for a profit as the draft approaches?

Does this make sense and should we all be attempting this value move basically every off season or is there risk to doing this?

TL;DR
Buy 1.01 in January to sell for a profit in July/August?

[Dynasty DeLorean]

all depends where the supposed tiers drop off. if there is no consensus 1.01 you may have a really hard time selling.

In general yes the prices of picks goes up but that's only for the average price and not necessarily true for any one particular pick.

[Orenthal Shames]

In theory, sure. Always aim to buy low and sell high. I tend to agree with DD on this though. I'm not sure people are going to give a massive discount on 1.01, even in a perceived down class.

[moishetreats]

I'd put it this way: if you could make a fair value offer centered on a piece or on pieces that are non-essential to you (i.e., a player whom you think is overrated or from a place of unique positional depth), then go for it.

If you have to give up things that really hurt to give up to chance the potential market increase on 1.01, then I'd pass: you'd likely just be chasing whatever you gave up in the first place.

[bjd5211]

You can try, but I don't know how much of a "discount" you are going to get. I hold the #1 pick in several of my leagues and I'm very open to moving it, but I also know its value will be highest right before the draft. So I have no incentive to trade it right now unless it's a deal I just can't refuse, and a deal like that doesn't exactly scream "buying low" for the guy acquiring the pick.

[sugbear65]

I bought the 1.01 in a league because the owner was feeling the weak class/no elites narrative of this years draft. Im not saying it was cheap, I paid 1.04, 1.07 and D. Pettis. But it feels like the first time in years you can buy the 1.01 without giving up an Uber stud in the process.

[IBall2]

You can try, but I don't know how much of a "discount" you are going to get. I hold the #1 pick in several of my leagues and I'm very open to moving it, but I also know its value will be highest right before the draft. So I have no incentive to trade it right now unless it's a deal I just can't refuse, and a deal like that doesn't exactly scream "buying low" for the guy acquiring the pick.

This is what I see in my leagues every year as well. People wont just sell at a discount. Everybody that has been in dynasty leagues for a year or 2 knows the price increases as we get closer to draft time. I've made a few offers to teams in the 1.04 to 1.08 range and nobody has accepted my trades and they all give me the same boiler plate response "I can get more in return when we get closer to the draft".

[Elroypedro]

Okay. So the consensus here is actually that the price will not increase as we get closer to the draft, but is maxed out now. Good to know

[Orenthal Shames]

Okay. So the consensus here is actually that the price will not increase as we get closer to the draft, but is maxed out now. Good to know

Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

[Cameron Giles]

Okay. So the consensus here is actually that the price will not increase as we get closer to the draft, but is maxed out now. Good to know

Consensus is that you're not going to get a discount for the 1.01 as owners are not going to sell unless they can get the type of value that comes in March and April... right now.

[bjd5211]

Okay. So the consensus here is actually that the price will not increase as we get closer to the draft, but is maxed out now. Good to know

Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

Trolling is. Just go check out the Lamar Jackson thread.

[Servo]

Unless someone tests off the charts I don't think you're going to see a huge disparity between the first few picks of this class, remember 2016 after most draft Zeke Elliott, it was a toss-up of who goes next:

- Doctson (lol)
- Coleman (lol)
- Treadwell (lol)
- Shepard (better than those listed above but still sad)
- Thomas (diamond)

What does all of this mean? Unless one of your competitors are enamored with a pick, I imagine most saying, "You take whoever, and I'll take the other guy you were torn between"

- Harry
- Harmon
- AJ Brown
- Metcalf
- Marquise Brown

When there's no huge demand = no one is going to pay that premium

[akbfrosty]

I bought the 1.01 in a league because the owner was feeling the weak class/no elites narrative of this years draft. Im not saying it was cheap, I paid 1.04, 1.07 and D. Pettis. But it feels like the first time in years you can buy the 1.01 without giving up an Uber stud in the process.

This feels like a tremendous overpay...I'm honestly not sure if I'd trade 1.04 and Pettis for the 1.01, let alone adding 1.07. That's like 3 firsts of value for a guy that's pretty certainly not going to be in the first round of a startup.

I'd also say that it's possible that 1.01 ends up outside the top 24 in startups this year, too. That prediction has less to do with the rookie getting drafted and more to do with the current state of the RB/WR field in the NFL, lots of young guys scoring tons of points should push down the 1.01 in my opinion. Using mizelle's ADP, I'd have a tough time confidently slotting him in before 30 even if a WR gets drafted in the top 10 or the Chiefs draft an RB in the 1st round.

[Vcize]

Unless someone tests off the charts I don't think you're going to see a huge disparity between the first few picks of this class, remember 2016 after most draft Zeke Elliott, it was a toss-up of who goes next:

- Doctson (lol)
- Coleman (lol)
- Treadwell (lol)
- Shepard (better than those listed above but still sad)
- Thomas (diamond)

What does all of this mean? Unless one of your competitors are enamored with a pick, I imagine most saying, "You take whoever, and I'll take the other guy you were torn between"

- Harry
- Harmon
- AJ Brown
- Metcalf
- Marquise Brown

When there's no huge demand = no one is going to pay that premium

There are 3 things that could give us a very clear 1.01 by the time May rolls around.

1) Great combine from someone
2) Great landing spot for someone
3) Forum hype that builds between now and then

For #3, think Corey Davis a couple of years ago. Around this time of year he was probably less highly thought of than ~3 of this year's WRs and was a toss-up with Mike Williams to most people/mocks. He injured his ankle so he participated in no drills in the offseason, yet he just became such a talking point in the forum that his hype slowly built and built despite him not actually doing anything until his rookie adp was 1.01 despite being in one of the richest RB drafts in a long time.

I think Metcalf is a great candidate for #1 and #3 above. He's the most likely to blow away the combine, and he's also the "sexy" name that people like to name-drop a la Corey Davis a few years ago.

Obviously any of them are candidates for #2. If one of them lands in Indy/Cleveland in the 1st round or a RB lands in KC in the 1st round people will go gaga over them.

[jenkins.math]

There are 3 things that could give us a very clear 1.01 by the time May rolls around.

1) Great combine from someone
2) Great landing spot for someone
3) Forum hype that builds between now and then

For #3, think Corey Davis a couple of years ago. Around this time of year he was probably less highly thought of than ~3 of this year's WRs and was a toss-up with Mike Williams to most people/mocks. He injured his ankle so he participated in no drills in the offseason, yet he just became such a talking point in the forum that his hype slowly built and built despite him not actually doing anything until his rookie adp was 1.01 despite being in one of the richest RB drafts in a long time.

I think Metcalf is a great candidate for #1 and #3 above. He's the most likely to blow away the combine, and he's also the "sexy" name that people like to name-drop a la Corey Davis a few years ago.

Obviously any of them are candidates for #2. If one of them lands in Indy/Cleveland in the 1st round or a RB lands in KC in the 1st round people will go gaga over them.

I disagree with your Corey Davis hype comparison. He ended his career as the NCAA's all time receiving yards leader. Anybody that puts up NCAA career leader numbers will start to get name dropped in a fantasy forum. I agree his hype rose, but I think that was more due to him going to what was then perceived a great situation. Mariota coming off a very good 2nd season (which has been his best of this career) with a clear route to WR1 there from day 1, and a top 5 pick. The hype train really picked up steam when he went top 5 and was paired with a young QB that had shown promise.

Of the top handful of guys, whoever you have up there, I honestly think landing spot will separate them more than anything this year. If one of those WRs goes to the Jets at 3, or Packers at 12, you can pretty much bet the hype train for 1.01 will be there. Along with any RB taken on day 1 or 2 that lands with the Eagles, Chiefs, Colts, Texans, or (insert great RB friendly offense here).

It's just such a sack of potatoes this year at the top that I don't think there is that much of a talent disparity in 1.01 and 1.05. 1.01 always has high value as it's sexy to have the first overall pick. But I don't see much talent disparity at all between those.