Investing in 1.01 for the draft run up

[sloth8u]

Consensus seems to be the 1.01(this could also apply to other high 1sts) will sharply increase in value leading towards the draft. I agree.

So once our seasons end in December and the draft order is set, is it a prudent move to buy the 1.01(and other high 1sts) for their then-current value and then hold to sell them for a profit as the draft approaches?

Does this make sense and should we all be attempting this value move basically every off season or is there risk to doing this?

TL;DR
Buy 1.01 in January to sell for a profit in July/August?

I tend to follow the rule of "not buying" for "future profit" and especially so this time of year. your better bet is to take the assets it would take to get 1.1 and see what other pieces that you may be able to add. possibly more "certain" assets.

[Jigga94]

Okay. So the consensus here is actually that the price will not increase as we get closer to the draft, but is maxed out now. Good to know

Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

Trolling is. Just go check out the Lamar Jackson thread.

Which one?

[ArrylT]

Consensus seems to be the 1.01(this could also apply to other high 1sts) will sharply increase in value leading towards the draft. I agree.

So once our seasons end in December and the draft order is set, is it a prudent move to buy the 1.01(and other high 1sts) for their then-current value and then hold to sell them for a profit as the draft approaches?

Does this make sense and should we all be attempting this value move basically every off season or is there risk to doing this?

TL;DR
Buy 1.01 in January to sell for a profit in July/August?

Was the Too Long Didnt Read abbreviation an accident?

Anyways I think that there is always risk in trying to buy low & sell high, and that it is a league driven determination. In a vacuum & if you feel your leaguemates are either impatient or forgetful, then absolutely, it could be prudent to buy the 1.01 (or other high 1st) now and see if you can sell it for more at draft time. I would not recommend buying it simply for that reason, but as more of an option.

IE you see the cost is reasonable now so you buy it, and then later on you decide whether to use the pick, or sell it. But if you go in with the plan to buy & flip, and your league dynamic does not allow for that to happen, then obviously yeah it is too risky.

[maxhyde]

In general but I would be surprised if that were true any year there is a definitive consensus 1.01 or even a pair of worthy players. Those values typically start high and stay high.

I'd say buy to flip may not be worth it but depends on the league and who ends up at the top of the draft

[jordanzs]

all depends where the supposed tiers drop off. if there is no consensus 1.01 you may have a really hard time selling.

In general yes the prices of picks goes up but that's only for the average price and not necessarily true for any one particular pick.

A few years ago, the 1.1 was a really hard sell. The top 7 players were:

Gio
Lacy
Leveon
Montee Ball
Tavon Austin
Corderrelle
Hopkins

Of course we now know who sank and who swam, but if you pull up 20 rookie drafts from that year, you'll see those players go in any combination. Literally. So yeah nobody wanted to move up to the 1.1, they would rather hang at 1.5 to 1.7, which tended to get them Leveon or Hopkins.

[sugbear65]

all depends where the supposed tiers drop off. if there is no consensus 1.01 you may have a really hard time selling.

In general yes the prices of picks goes up but that's only for the average price and not necessarily true for any one particular pick.

A few years ago, the 1.1 was a really hard sell. The top 7 players were:

Gio
Lacy
Leveon
Montee Ball
Tavon Austin
Corderrelle
Hopkins

Of course we now know who sank and who swam, but if you pull up 20 rookie drafts from that year, you'll see those players go in any combination. Literally. So yeah nobody wanted to move up to the 1.1, they would rather hang at 1.5 to 1.7, which tended to get them Leveon or Hopkins.

And still there was people giving up a ton to move up to 1.01 because they fell in love with Gio or Tavon Awesome. Just like this year there will people falling in love with certain players and going balls out to get “their guy”. There is no cure for rookie fever, it strikes annually.

[Vcize]

all depends where the supposed tiers drop off. if there is no consensus 1.01 you may have a really hard time selling.

In general yes the prices of picks goes up but that's only for the average price and not necessarily true for any one particular pick.

A few years ago, the 1.1 was a really hard sell. The top 7 players were:

Gio
Lacy
Leveon
Montee Ball
Tavon Austin
Corderrelle
Hopkins

Of course we now know who sank and who swam, but if you pull up 20 rookie drafts from that year, you'll see those players go in any combination. Literally. So yeah nobody wanted to move up to the 1.1, they would rather hang at 1.5 to 1.7, which tended to get them Leveon or Hopkins.

I remember that year. Lots of people trying to move up to 1.1 for Gio or Lacy in my non-ppr league.

I remember I gave up a future pick to move from 1.4 to 1.3 to grab Le'Veon over Ball and everyone called me crazy.

[BigBawseRoss]

Unless someone tests off the charts I don't think you're going to see a huge disparity between the first few picks of this class, remember 2016 after most draft Zeke Elliott, it was a toss-up of who goes next:

- Doctson (lol)
- Coleman (lol)
- Treadwell (lol)
- Shepard (better than those listed above but still sad)
- Thomas (diamond)

What does all of this mean? Unless one of your competitors are enamored with a pick, I imagine most saying, "You take whoever, and I'll take the other guy you were torn between"

- Harry
- Harmon
- AJ Brown
- Metcalf
- Marquise Brown

When there's no huge demand = no one is going to pay that premium

There are 3 things that could give us a very clear 1.01 by the time May rolls around.

1) Great combine from someone
2) Great landing spot for someone
3) Forum hype that builds between now and then

For #3, think Corey Davis a couple of years ago. Around this time of year he was probably less highly thought of than ~3 of this year's WRs and was a toss-up with Mike Williams to most people/mocks. He injured his ankle so he participated in no drills in the offseason, yet he just became such a talking point in the forum that his hype slowly built and built despite him not actually doing anything until his rookie adp was 1.01 despite being in one of the richest RB drafts in a long time.

I think Metcalf is a great candidate for #1 and #3 above. He's the most likely to blow away the combine, and he's also the "sexy" name that people like to name-drop a la Corey Davis a few years ago.

Obviously any of them are candidates for #2. If one of them lands in Indy/Cleveland in the 1st round or a RB lands in KC in the 1st round people will go gaga over them.

i like this take. i also cannot understand the metcalf hype so i agree fully he will be the guy the forum falls in love with haha