Weak rookie draft or does that change

[Wizard]

I'm new to dynasty and this year will only be my second rookie draft. I keep hearing/reading that this is not a particular good draft. Is it normal to have a draft to be thought of as weak and after the combines that changes? Or are the dynasty players on this site pretty in-tune with the talent coming in the drafts and this year's is just weak?

[Vcize]

I can only remember one time in recent history where fantasy players stayed uninterested in a draft even in May and that was 2016, and even in that case people were still very interested in the top 4 picks, just not the mid/late 1st and beyond.

Obviously that class had Zeke who was way better than anyone in this class but beyond him I think there are a large handful of guys better than the next guy up in that class. That class had only four RBs picked in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft and I expect nearly double that this year, and the WRs of that class graded lower than I think several guys in this class will and ended up in relatively boring spots, whereas there are some really nice landing spots for WRs this year (lots of mocks have Cleveland or Indy grabbing a WR in the 1st, for instance).

[honcho55]

Interested to see what this community says here. I’d also add a side question or two: is it a perceived weaker class because the talent is lower across the board, or because there’s no clear top dog? Or are we just spoiled by the last couple?

I haven’t done a ton of scouting myself yet but so far I’m agreeing with consensus for the most part: RBs are lackluster compared to 2017-2018, I’m not excited with a single QB this year, and while I like some WRs and TEs, quite a bit, there’s not much separation from the pack

[bjd5211]

Interested to see what this community says here. I’d also add a side question or two: is it a perceived weaker class because the talent is lower across the board, or because there’s no clear top dog? Or are we just spoiled by the last couple?

I haven’t done a ton of scouting myself yet but so far I’m agreeing with consensus for the most part: RBs are lackluster compared to 2017-2018, I’m not excited with a single QB this year, and while I like some WRs and TEs, quite a bit, there’s not much separation from the pack

Yes I think these are the reasons for all the negativity surrounding this draft. Plus the fact that next years draft is being hyped like it's the greatest draft of all-time. Personally I don't think this draft is nearly as bad as public perception, I just have no clue where to rank anybody in the class yet which is a bit different than the last few years, landing spots are going to determine values for this class even more than usual.

[AussieMate]

Remember when the top 3 RBS in a draft were Sankey, Hyde, and Jeremy Hill. That's this draft for rbs, no one I'm really interested in, WRs are better but still no elite talent on the surface. Let's hope a bunch of players surprise like kamara, Hunt, and Michael Thomas.

[AussieMate]

I'll probably take a shot on someone like Anderson, high potential but lots of risk but I like to take risk on talent.

[Jigga94]

It's a mix of a lot of things.

No clear #1
- No Barkley, no Zeke...
Not a strong RB class
- we've also been spoiled the past 2 years
Not a good QB class
- see RB note

However, there are many WR prospects coming out and I expect the value of early 1sts to rise just like always. It's once you get to a late 1st that the pick should probably be looked at as an early to mid 2nd in other drafts. Not saying there won't be diamonds in the rough, it just gets rough a lot faster lol

[dynastyninja]

I think the value in this year's class is going to be at receiver because the talent just isn't there at RB, so from that standpoint it is a weak class.

Doesn't mean there won't be a couple breakout players. It's just a lot harder to spot them this year.

[Cameron Giles]

It's normal for there to be weak classes after a few strong classes. If we look at the last string of drafts:

2014 - Amazing
2015 - Solid
2016 - Weak (I was off on this one)
2017 - Great
2018 - Solid-Good
2019 - ???

I've been saying that this draft doesn't have quality depth, nor does it possess a no-brainer 1.01 or even 1.02 choice. The names are such a mixed bag right now. Situation may end up determining the entire thing.

[Patsfan86]

Ive only been playing dynasty since 2015. I barely followed the 2016 class because I just didn't really know what I was doing and how important it is and was. I made a lot of mistakes early and put myself in a hole im still crawling out of. Anyway I hate group think but ive found that general consensus on drafts and prospects are right for the most part. For instance I doubted Barkely because I wanted to be THAT GUY to go out on a limb but I was very very wrong. I learned a lesson from that, I also learned that general consensus has been right for the most part on drafts (2018 was a little overhyped when you look at past posts on it and what really happened but it was still a good draft). I didn't listen to the 2017 hype in 2016 and made the still newbie mistake of trading many of those picks, a mistake I very much regret. So with all that said I think its very safe to say this draft is just not great, 90 percent of the community does not seem excited about it, and I think in this case its a good way to gauge things.

[tresskid84]

The big problem I am seeing is that most of the top performers in this class just don't appear to great athletes. This year is going to be one of the most interesting combines in recent memory because of this. I actually think there is a decent amount of depth in this class now, with all the early entries, but it is definitely seems to be lacking top end talents of the past few years.

[Friction]

It definitely seems on paper that this is not one of the stronger draft classes in recent memory, but the combine has not happened and neither has the draft. Yes, rookie fever will kick in for some and GroupThink has ans will continue for others. When we say 90% of the community is not enamored with this particular class, out of that 90%, at least 50% just heard someone else say it and jumped on the bandwagon. Right or wrong, that is what happens. Same with the 2020 class being so strong. I heard very few in the college football community (experts, fantasy community, etc) say Trevor Lawrence was a superb pro prospect, let alone the best talent they had ever seen. He was on the national stage, which had a lot to do with it, rightfully so, but an announcer said it near the end of the game and a couple blurbs online followed suit. Now, that seems to be everyone's line of thinking. Nobody was saying that when he took over for Bryant, it was actually fairly mixed on who should start even. I did not even hear that after the ND game and there were plenty of murmuring during the season about his skill level. Recency bias, Group Think, et al. will determine how valuable this draft gets. A couple guys will get drafted into valuable draft slots and a couple will tear up the combine, and vice versa. I still think there will be value to be had in the mid to late first when it is all said and done. The rebirth of the RB has also hurt this class, as it is perceived to not be RB strong. Just a few short years ago that would have mattered little to the Dynasty Community and some would be salivating over the ceiling of some of these WR prospects.

[grandmabetty]

you guys its January. Fun stuff to talk about but none of this speculation will have any merit by the time April roles around. Prospects will emerge and studs will be declared whether by team situation or by combine results.

[Vcize]

Remember when the top 3 RBS in a draft were Sankey, Hyde, and Jeremy Hill. That's this draft for rbs, no one I'm really interested in, WRs are better but still no elite talent on the surface. Let's hope a bunch of players surprise like kamara, Hunt, and Michael Thomas.

Or it could be like the draft where the top 3 RBs were Gio, Lacy, and Bell.

[Vcize]

It definitely seems on paper that this is not one of the stronger draft classes in recent memory, but the combine has not happened and neither has the draft. Yes, rookie fever will kick in for some and GroupThink has ans will continue for others. When we say 90% of the community is not enamored with this particular class, out of that 90%, at least 50% just heard someone else say it and jumped on the bandwagon. Right or wrong, that is what happens. Same with the 2020 class being so strong. I heard very few in the college football community (experts, fantasy community, etc) say Trevor Lawrence was a superb pro prospect, let alone the best talent they had ever seen. He was on the national stage, which had a lot to do with it, rightfully so, but an announcer said it near the end of the game and a couple blurbs online followed suit. Now, that seems to be everyone's line of thinking. Nobody was saying that when he took over for Bryant, it was actually fairly mixed on who should start even. I did not even hear that after the ND game and there were plenty of murmuring during the season about his skill level. Recency bias, Group Think, et al. will determine how valuable this draft gets. A couple guys will get drafted into valuable draft slots and a couple will tear up the combine, and vice versa. I still think there will be value to be had in the mid to late first when it is all said and done. The rebirth of the RB has also hurt this class, as it is perceived to not be RB strong. Just a few short years ago that would have mattered little to the Dynasty Community and some would be salivating over the ceiling of some of these WR prospects.

Great points all around.