Weak rookie draft or does that change

[Pullo Vision]

you guys its January. Fun stuff to talk about but none of this speculation will have any merit by the time April roles around. Prospects will emerge and studs will be declared whether by team situation or by combine results.

That's the danger. You want to evaluate talents independent of testing and situation. If a player rises too much in dynasty rankings due to either the Combine or the NFL's Draft, you should approach cautiously rather than hugely bumping up that player on the rankings.

[Vcize]

you guys its January. Fun stuff to talk about but none of this speculation will have any merit by the time April roles around. Prospects will emerge and studs will be declared whether by team situation or by combine results.

That's the danger. You want to evaluate talents independent of testing and situation. If a player rises too much in dynasty rankings due to either the Combine or the NFL's Draft, you should approach cautiously rather than hugely bumping up that player on the rankings.

It's very common for things to change wildly and guys to gain steam bigtime between December and April. In general if you're going into April with December rankings you're going to be behind more often than not.

Last offseason Chubb and especially Kerryon gained a lot of steam between Dec-Apr, as did DJ Moore. In Dec/Apr Baker and Lamar Jackson were practically off the fantasy radar with Baker a projected 2nd round NFL pick and Lamar Jackson still being told he would have to switch to WR to even be drafted.

The year before that guys like Mixon/McCaffrey made big gains at the top (they weren't even in the discussion with Fournette or Cook in December) and guys like Kamara and Hunt made huge gains at the next level.

Flawed as it may be how the NFL feels about players is still by far the best predictor of fantasy success, and we don't really get a great read on how they feel about a lot of these guys until we progress through the offseason.

[AussieMate]

you guys its January. Fun stuff to talk about but none of this speculation will have any merit by the time April roles around. Prospects will emerge and studs will be declared whether by team situation or by combine results.

That's the danger. You want to evaluate talents independent of testing and situation. If a player rises too much in dynasty rankings due to either the Combine or the NFL's Draft, you should approach cautiously rather than hugely bumping up that player on the rankings.

It's very common for things to change wildly and guys to gain steam bigtime between December and April. In general if you're going into April with December rankings you're going to be behind more often than not.

Last offseason Chubb and especially Kerryon gained a lot of steam between Dec-Apr, as did DJ Moore. In Dec/Apr Baker and Lamar Jackson were practically off the fantasy radar with Baker a projected 2nd round NFL pick and Lamar Jackson still being told he would have to switch to WR to even be drafted.

The year before that guys like Mixon/McCaffrey made big gains at the top (they weren't even in the discussion with Fournette or Cook in December) and guys like Kamara and Hunt made huge gains at the next level.

Flawed as it may be how the NFL feels about players is still by far the best predictor of fantasy success, and we don't really get a great read on how they feel about a lot of these guys until we progress through the offseason.

Some of the names you mentioned were additions to drafts with already talented players making those drafts even better. There isn't a Fournette or Cook, there is no Barkley or Guice, people can keep trying but this draft just isn't as good no matter which way you spin it.

[tresskid84]

It definitely seems on paper that this is not one of the stronger draft classes in recent memory, but the combine has not happened and neither has the draft. Yes, rookie fever will kick in for some and GroupThink has ans will continue for others. When we say 90% of the community is not enamored with this particular class, out of that 90%, at least 50% just heard someone else say it and jumped on the bandwagon. Right or wrong, that is what happens. Same with the 2020 class being so strong. I heard very few in the college football community (experts, fantasy community, etc) say Trevor Lawrence was a superb pro prospect, let alone the best talent they had ever seen. He was on the national stage, which had a lot to do with it, rightfully so, but an announcer said it near the end of the game and a couple blurbs online followed suit. Now, that seems to be everyone's line of thinking. Nobody was saying that when he took over for Bryant, it was actually fairly mixed on who should start even. I did not even hear that after the ND game and there were plenty of murmuring during the season about his skill level. Recency bias, Group Think, et al. will determine how valuable this draft gets. A couple guys will get drafted into valuable draft slots and a couple will tear up the combine, and vice versa. I still think there will be value to be had in the mid to late first when it is all said and done. The rebirth of the RB has also hurt this class, as it is perceived to not be RB strong. Just a few short years ago that would have mattered little to the Dynasty Community and some would be salivating over the ceiling of some of these WR prospects.

I agree with most of what you said EXCEPT FOR ANYTHING YOU SAID ABOUT TREVOR LAWRENCE. Dude was the number 1 recruit in the country, being compared to Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning before he even got on campus. I took him in my devy Superflex this year before the season (and I actually almost took him after his junior year of hs). Hunter Johnson jumped ship to Northwestern because of the guy, lol.

[bjd5211]

Ya I don't follow CFB religiously or HS recruiting, but I still remember Lawrence being billed as maybe the greatest QB prospect ever coming out of HS. I was very skeptical about that, but obviously so far so good.

[Vcize]

That's the danger. You want to evaluate talents independent of testing and situation. If a player rises too much in dynasty rankings due to either the Combine or the NFL's Draft, you should approach cautiously rather than hugely bumping up that player on the rankings.

It's very common for things to change wildly and guys to gain steam bigtime between December and April. In general if you're going into April with December rankings you're going to be behind more often than not.

Last offseason Chubb and especially Kerryon gained a lot of steam between Dec-Apr, as did DJ Moore. In Dec/Apr Baker and Lamar Jackson were practically off the fantasy radar with Baker a projected 2nd round NFL pick and Lamar Jackson still being told he would have to switch to WR to even be drafted.

The year before that guys like Mixon/McCaffrey made big gains at the top (they weren't even in the discussion with Fournette or Cook in December) and guys like Kamara and Hunt made huge gains at the next level.

Flawed as it may be how the NFL feels about players is still by far the best predictor of fantasy success, and we don't really get a great read on how they feel about a lot of these guys until we progress through the offseason.

Some of the names you mentioned were additions to drafts with already talented players making those drafts even better. There isn't a Fournette or Cook, there is no Barkley or Guice, people can keep trying but this draft just isn't as good no matter which way you spin it.

Ok. But none of that has anything to do with the discussion you're quoting.