Impact of Arians to the Bucs

[Ice]

Arians is a very good coach but my take is it is a short term solution at best but given its a win now league he should be okay for a few years. He needs to get that defense turned around quickly or he will be doubling his BP medication.

[heyfeefellskee]

Meh. Arians' reputation is greater than his ability. Tampa was #3 in offense last season, so I do not see where there is going to be a great improvement on that side of the ball.

I think you're looking at passing yards, which they were indeed #3 last year.

However... they were also:

#12 in points scored

#29 in rushing yards

#14 in scoring in the red zone

Plenty of room for improvement.

I remember watching the Amazon docu-series the year in which the Cardinals were featured. In one episode, the 2015 darft was featured. It showed the AZ brass and Arians all praying that Ameer Abdullah would fall to them. When Detroit drafted him, they were destroyed and forced themsleves to 'settle' for David Johnson in the next round. It was very revealing.

I would bet you money that if you had switched teams, David Johnson wouldn't have come close to the impact he had, because Detroit has been TERRIBLE with utilizing their skill position players. Did you know that this year was the first time they have had a 100-yard rusher since 2013? It's not because of Ameer Abdullah, I can assure you.

I honestly cannot think of a worse coach for a player like Winston.

I honestly don't think you're trying very hard, then.

[dm1129]

Meh. Arians' reputation is greater than his ability. Tampa was #3 in offense last season, so I do not see where there is going to be a great improvement on that side of the ball.

I think you're looking at passing yards, which they were indeed #3 last year.

However... they were also:

#12 in points scored

#29 in rushing yards

#14 in scoring in the red zone

Plenty of room for improvement.

I remember watching the Amazon docu-series the year in which the Cardinals were featured. In one episode, the 2015 darft was featured. It showed the AZ brass and Arians all praying that Ameer Abdullah would fall to them. When Detroit drafted him, they were destroyed and forced themsleves to 'settle' for David Johnson in the next round. It was very revealing.

I would bet you money that if you had switched teams, David Johnson wouldn't have come close to the impact he had, because Detroit has been TERRIBLE with utilizing their skill position players. Did you know that this year was the first time they have had a 100-yard rusher since 2013? It's not because of Ameer Abdullah, I can assure you.

I honestly cannot think of a worse coach for a player like Winston.

I honestly don't think you're trying very hard, then.

TB was # 3 in offensive yardage last year. This is a fantasy forum, numbers are what matter, not efficiency.

If you are trying to compare Abdullah to David Johnson, you need a new hobby...haha. OMG..seriously not worth my time.

[pvillebiker]

If Fournette is actually available, I could see the Bucs knocking.

Exactly what I was going to say. Fournette is still on his rookie contract for a few more years, has to be hungry to prove the doubters (just about everybody at this point) wrong. Would have to be preferable to the big name (i.e. high $$) free agent RB's. Pure speculation, but I'd love to see it.

[Johnny Canuck]

If you are trying to compare Abdullah to David Johnson, you need a new hobby...haha. OMG..seriously not worth my time.

I've made this comp before but only with Abdullah and Zeke, and got criticized pretty bad, but it's not really as far fetched as you're making it seem. Yes DJ is a great talent, and obvs better than Abdullah. But Abdullah was also a better player than ppl make it seem, just put in a bad situation.

You can put makeup on a pig pretty easily regarding the RB position.

Take a modest RB talent, put them in a good offense, or with a great o-line, and give one guy a massive workload, including all GL work and passing game work (if they're at least okay in that respect). There is examples of this every year, look at Damien Williams this season.

Situation Matters, esp with RBs.

I still don't understand how this is a difficult concept for some dynasty players to grasp. I assume it's because they don't want to admit to themselves that their "studs" might be products of a system rather than the talent variable portion of the equation.

Don't get me wrong, sometimes it simply is pure talent driving the bus (example: Barkley). And when you get great talents in great situations then you get your Zeke, etc. But sometimes modest talents put in great situations can perform like studs, otherwise players like D Williams wouldn't be able to produce like Bell, or Damien Williams wouldn't be able to produce like Kareem Hunt.

Situation matters, and while DJ/Abdullah have differences in their talent, they also were in drastically different situations, which only further exaggerated this talent differential.

[Cameron Giles]

Wouldn't be surprised either if TB makes a move for a RB. Seems like they're looking to make splash moves to sell fans.

[murphysxm]

For me, Chris Godwin went from a boom or bust WR3 with upside, to an asset I want in all places.

[Pullo Vision]

I think you're looking at passing yards, which they were indeed #3 last year.

However... they were also:

#12 in points scored

#29 in rushing yards

#14 in scoring in the red zone

Plenty of room for improvement.

TB was # 3 in offensive yardage last year. This is a fantasy forum, numbers are what matter, not efficiency.

If you are trying to compare Abdullah to David Johnson, you need a new hobby...haha. OMG..seriously not worth my time.

Of course efficiency matters. #3 in yardage shows they could get down the field but 14th in redzone scoring shows they struggled to punch it in. Touchdowns would help fantasy players more than field goals.

The DJ/Abdullah discussion was simply to point out the importance of situation, not comparing the players talent wise. It's similar to the talk of Pittsburgh's RBs. How productive would Bell be in a lesser offense, and how much of Conner's production was driven by his own talent and how much his situation.

It'd be interesting to see Abdullah sign with Tampa, since Arians wanted him so bad.

[CooperCrush]

Does anyone think Yeldon may be an option at RB? Had a decent year and is good at catching the ball, not sure on his blocking though.

[DonBrazi]

Without having any actual numbers/data on hand, I'm at a loss at to why this move would be seen as a good thing for Winston. If you ask me, he's at his worst when he's making decisions under pressure, throwing deep, and/or on the move.

I've always thought of Arians' offenses as 7-step drop and throw deep offenses. Yah, he figured out how to use Fitzgerald in the short-game after two or so years, but (for various reasons) that year or two seemed more like an aberration than anything else. His QBs are usually constantly under pressure and looking for guys like Mike Wallace and John Brown. Seems like Winston would get killed in that kind of offense.

I dunno.. I just don't see how Arians' past would give anyone confidence with Winston. Naturally, the future doesn't have to reflect the past.. but assuming either Winston or Arians will change their stripes doesn't seem like a safe thought process.

[jetsfan5757]

Great discussion. My first thoughts were:
1. great for Winston (GM has already said he will be back, not sure why people are debating this)
2. same, maybe slight bump, for Evans
3. no clue about OJ Howard but I don't think he disappears.

After reading the thread, I feel more or less the same way, although DonBrazi makes some interesting points about the QB in an Arians system. I still think Winston will be fine, I think Evans will be fine (somewhere between non-PPR WR 5 and WR 15 depending on TDs), and I think Arians will icorporate OJ.

[bjd5211]

Since all the chatter of who at RB for DJ's old coach, anyone think Tevin Coleman gets brought in? Pass catching experience, significantly cheaper than Bell, and doesn't completely give up on RoJo if ownership still believed in him (or just doesn't want to look like a complete miss on a pick to the fanbase after a singles year)

Also, any history of Brucie using a big bodied deep ball receiver like Evans in the past?

Any history of him having one comparable to Evans in the past?

Evans will be fine.

[briank]

I feel like this is better for everyone involved except Rojo unless he massively improves his ability to catch footballs and pass block.

[Mjvb5]

Since all the chatter of who at RB for DJ's old coach, anyone think Tevin Coleman gets brought in? Pass catching experience, significantly cheaper than Bell, and doesn't completely give up on RoJo if ownership still believed in him (or just doesn't want to look like a complete miss on a pick to the fanbase after a singles year)

Also, any history of Brucie using a big bodied deep ball receiver like Evans in the past?

Any history of him having one comparable to Evans in the past?

Evans will be fine.

Arians loves the vertical deep ball. Evans is a contested catch monster(in part bc he struggles to seperate but different convo for a different day). This makes him into a very good deep threat especially as a complement to Djax, so he should be fine

[heyfeefellskee]

TB was # 3 in offensive yardage last year. This is a fantasy forum, numbers are what matter, not efficiency.

Scoring touchdowns in the redzone usually has an impact on fantasy scoring.

If you are trying to compare Abdullah to David Johnson, you need a new hobby...haha. OMG..seriously not worth my time.

LOL! /s

It's obviously David Johnson 100 times out of 100 after seeing how they've performed, but ket's not try to have a revisionist history here.

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Ameer Abdullah was rated higher by almost EVERYONE coming into the draft. He even had a higher draft grade.

If professional scouts ranked Ameer Abdullah over David Johnson, then it shouldn't be a shock if coaches did as well--nor should it be a criticism of their talent valuation.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Don't pretend that you were some savant that how either guy would turn out before they started their professional careers.