How quickly do you adjust?

General talk about Dynasty Leagues.
Pullo Vision
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How quickly do you adjust?

Postby Pullo Vision » Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:02 pm

I've seen comments about people adjusting their rankings every three weeks. Some have said a single game, like ARob's 143/1 game today, can boost a player's value for them.

How often to do your views on a player's value change? How many games should he string together to for you to bump/drop them?
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def

Jigga94
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby Jigga94 » Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:12 pm

I'm usually every 4 weeks or so. Even then, I'm only adjusting guys like Chubb who have shown what they can with a full load. I mean sure he was around my 25th ranked RB as a rookie but since taking over, he really impressed and is now around 10th

Ideally, if you update ranks often, there shouldn't be a lot of players moving

FantasyFreak
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby FantasyFreak » Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:15 pm

A Rob burned a rookie with a couple of double moves. I'm not moving him anywhere for that. I would have moved him down if he didn't have a good game. I tend to move rookies up quicker if they flash for 3-4 games, but once guys have a lengthy track record, I don't adjust for a few games unless something changed (Like Cooper going to Dallas and becoming the focal point of their pass game)
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honcho55
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby honcho55 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:26 am

By the hour, in the middle of the offseason with no real news or logical reason! Not joking either, I have a problem. Mostly due to being in a super active trade league.

However that’s generally bouncing guys In the same tier around. I think one game can’t move a guy out of a tier for me, unless it’s someones real first breakout game.

Also relevant, some guys I get really torn on and their value can move a lot regardless just from me being wishy washy. It’s derrick Henry and Phillip Lindsey right now. I don’t know if they are a 3rd or 8th round startup pick on my board right now.
main league, half PPR, all TDs 6, -3 for INT
12 team. 2019 champ, 2020 runner up, ‘21 3rd
start 2SF, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2WRT

QB: T Lawrence, K Cousins, R Wilson, Z Wilson
RB: K Walker, T Ettiene, JK Dobbins, D Gore, J Hasty, D Johnson, L Rountree
WR: JJ, AJB, A Cooper, Juju, C Kirk, J Dotson, N Westbrook-Ikhine, I McKenzie
TE. T Kelce, Pitts, Albert O, D Parham, J O’Shaunessy

1.03, 1.11, 2.02, 2.09
Extra 24 1st

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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby tresskid84 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:39 pm

I will usually sit down and do it once a month-ish, but I am always adjusting things slightly in head. There usually aren't drastic changes, but its always a good exercise to do because it keeps me in a current mindset and helps me make trade offers with a better understanding of what might be other people's perspectives in that moment
2021-Orphan Rebuild, 12tm PPR, SF, 1.75 TE Prem
2 SF, 8 Flex

QB: Mayfield, Z Wilson, D Jones, Heinicke, Rudolph, Foles
RB: Herbert, Felton, Evans, Nwangwu, Calais
WR: D Smith, Waddle, Chark, J Palmer, D P-J, Raymond, Washington, Jauan, Darden, Fehoko, Smith-Marsette, C Johnson, Proche, Shi Smith, A Tate, ESB, JJAW
TE: O'Shaughnessy, Moreau, Granson, Tyree J, Hu Bryant, Hopkins, Fortson
2022 Picks: 1.01, 1.04, 1.11, 2.01, 2.09, and 3.02
2023 Picks: six 1sts, my 2nd

2021-Orphan Rebuild, 16tm PPR, SF, 1.5pr TE, DEVY:
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SF, 3 Flex
Draft is rookies and devy (only 2022 NFL eligible)

QB: Tua, Fields, Brissett, Foles, Purdy(D), T Morgan(D)
RB: Etienne, Gainwell, Homer, T Jones, J Hill, Ragas, Sargent, Calais, Funk,
WR: Cephus, Nico, J Palmer, Gage, Quez, P Williams, JJAW, Strachan, Proche, Lil'Jordan, Shi Smith, Fryfogle(D)
TE: Moreau, Maxx, H Long, RSJ, Tyree J
2022 Picks: 1.02, 2.02, 2.12, 3.02, 3.07, 3.10, 3.11, 3.12, 3.15, 4.01, 4.02, 4.05, 4.07, 4.12, 4.15

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Jason3123
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby Jason3123 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:10 pm

Like my retirement accounts, maybe every 6 months. Once before the season, and once after. Then occasionally tinker during the season with some breakout players. No reason to really adjust them so much in season unless you're doing a draft.

Pullo Vision
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby Pullo Vision » Tue Jan 08, 2019 6:06 pm

FantasyFreak wrote: Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:15 pmA Rob burned a rookie with a couple of double moves. I'm not moving him anywhere for that. I would have moved him down if he didn't have a good game. I tend to move rookies up quicker if they flash for 3-4 games, but once guys have a lengthy track record, I don't adjust for a few games unless something changed (Like Cooper going to Dallas and becoming the focal point of their pass game)
Jason3123 wrote: Mon Jan 07, 2019 5:10 pmLike my retirement accounts, maybe every 6 months. Once before the season, and once after. Then occasionally tinker during the season with some breakout players. No reason to really adjust them so much in season unless you're doing a draft.
I think the underlined sections highlight a critical point that Jigga referenced- it's not how often you move player rankings, but who. Established players like Hopkins or Fitzgerald won't see massive moves. Guys with limited/no track record but great opportunity like rojo and chubb could see a significant value move after one year.

Trade or FA acquisitions, the moment the transaction occurs, would probably be another set of examples. Cooper could see a boost, or ARob when he joined Chicago. But, not after ARob established an inconsistent streak of production and targets.

There's a guy in one of my leagues who tends to make at least one trade towards the end of each season that looks ridiculous at the time but usually proves to be a great trade for him. Last year it was Kenny Golladay, this year James Conner.
League #1- 14 tm ppr, 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1K
1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S, 1 flex

League #2- 12 team PPR, 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1 R/W/T, 1 W/R/T, 1 Def

League #3- 12 tm PPR, 1Q, 0R (yes, ZERO RB) 3W, 1T, 2 R/W/T flex, 1 Def

Jigga94
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby Jigga94 » Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:49 pm

Dead on Pullo. If you run to adjust your rankings after someone had a big game, you're doing it wrong. Not saying you can't be right, but I bet that 90% of the time when you rush to adjust their rank them after a big game, it will be higher than what their value ends up being.

Torrey Smith comes to mind :lol: and other guys like Callaway, Ballage and MVS this year. Hmm... Rookie fever isn't only around draft time...

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Orenthal Shames
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:12 am

I adjust so fast. The fastest. I am the best at adjustments - Trump Voice
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 upman rosters - full point ppr
2015, 17, 18, 19, 20 Champs

QB: Watson, Flacco
RB: Bijan, Gibbs, McLaughlin
WR: Olave, Addison, Flowers, Rice, Downs, Mims, Douglas, Tillman
TE: Kittle, Chig, Woods
24 Picks: 1.08, 1.14, 2nd x2

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rubber_duck
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby rubber_duck » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:14 am

I'll adjust rankings frequently during the first few weeks of a regular season. I'll do it again following an NFL draft. Lots of new information is available or revealed at those times. Other than those times, I don't adjust much, only some minor movement here and there.

We are playing dynasty, not redraft, and players just don't change all that fast.

Each season I will spend a great deal of time trying to understand who each incoming rookie is. What sort of player they are. Whether or not they have a toxic character trait.

I will also spend time getting a handle on each player's situation with regards to roster position, quality of coaching, even the team ownership and contract status. These are things that can (and do) change quickly. While these things don't greatly impact my dynasty rankings, they do affect my in-season trading a lot.

Trying to know who the players are (separately from their situations) has saved me countless times.

So instead of constantly revising rankings, I look to understand the current events and place them into context. Why did so-and-so just have a great game? Is he a great player that I may have missed, or is there something else (more temporary) at work here?

Huh
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby Huh » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:57 am

I adjust my rankings so slow it makes people angry. I held the stance that Amari is a top wr through the bad times. I’ll come out being right in the end. This is dynasty and I’m a glacier and it almost always works out for me.

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BigBawseRoss
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Re: How quickly do you adjust?

Postby BigBawseRoss » Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:32 pm

i have no clue... its all off feeling. some guys i hold on hope forever (sammy) others i dont care about while still hot (james white)
team 1
12 team, 1 pt for 4 rec, 0.1 per rush
1qb, 3 rb, 4 wr, te, k, 4 idp
Dak , Herbert
Achane, Breece Hall, KW3Kyren,Ford, Miller, Spiller, z evans, singletary
J Jefferson, Diggs, DK, D Smith Puka, C Watson, E Moore
Njoku , HH, Engram

2024 picks
1,3,4,5,5,6,7 (all late mostly)

team 2
12 team .5ppr
qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, te, flx,flx,
Fields, Dak
Ford,Mixon, Javonte, Mostert, Chubb, Spears
Hopkins, Evans, g Wilson Mingo, shaheed, Jamo
Kelce,McBride, Chig,


1,2,3,3,5

team 3
14 team sf, even scoring idp to offense (rb scores highly too)
Josh Allen, A Rich, Foles, Rudolph
Bijan, Charbs, Spears, Ebner
J Williams, G Wilson, C Watson, Flowers, J Addison, Tillman
Kincaid, Kolar, Ruckert, Fergeson

Kenny Clark, josh allen, jaelen phillips, felix a-u and a bunch of fluff and rookie fliers at idp


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