Devonta Freeman Thread: Here we go ...

[JoshGordonsDealer]

One of my favorite buy-lows this offseason, only 26 (27 when the season starts).

What do you all think?

[Cameron Giles]

Agreed. Fluke injury year, still could have 2-3 good seasons left in him. Very good buy low.

[skip]

The Atlanta running game was a disaster with Coleman. One has to think that Freeman not only is a solid buy low but has major upside heading into 2019.

[Space Cowboy]

Wouldn't expect much but Brian Hill can be had for free. Can't hurt.

[Phaded]

I own him in one league - I would try to buy him in my other, but he is a Falcons fan.

But yes, I agree. Solid buy low right now.
Top 5 upside, decent enough floor.

[remedy29]

Buy low from what? According to Mizelle December rankings, he is ranked #24 RB. I think he should be a little higher. He is clearly outside the top 15 dynasty RB now, but after that, he is right there with anyone.

[ninotoreS]

Wouldn't expect much but Brian Hill can be had for free. Can't hurt.

Side-note: Brian Hill isn't bad, and I think he's a better complement to Free than Ito.

[ericanadian]

Not sure I agree. Freeman was incredibly successful in the outside zone scheme of Shanahan, but looked pretty mediocre under Koetter back in 2014 and the team drafted Coleman to replace Freeman. Sarkisian has largely left the Shanahan offensive scheme intact, but Sark got fired and Koetter appears to be a front-runner to replace him. Even if it’s not Koetter, the likelihood of the next OC running an outside zone scheme that Freeman has had so much success under, is very low. He won’t completely lose his value because of his ability as a pass catcher, so you shouldn’t worry about an Alfred Morris/Jordan Howard level collapse, but there is definitely more risk here than I would be comfortable with picking up unless you’re really buying low.

[ninotoreS]

Not sure I agree. Freeman was incredibly successful in the outside zone scheme of Shanahan, but looked pretty mediocre under Koetter back in 2014 and the team drafted Coleman to replace Freeman.

- Freeman was the best graded RB in Atlanta's backfield in '14 (also had the best YPC among the three RBs that received a significant number of carries)

- the line was immediately improved in '15 (both in terms of performance metrics and the personnel group on paper), although the performance dipped again in the last third of the season after a couple of injuries to the group

- Coleman was drafted because they had basically nothing other than Freeman that year on the depth-chart, having cut everyone but Freeman from last year's chart... of course, it was a competition for the lead job, which Freeman was winning all OTAs, minicamp, and the first week of TC. Then he had a hamstring injury (or maybe it was groin? ... it was something soft-tissue, caused him to miss every preseason tilt).

Sarkisian has largely left the Shanahan offensive scheme intact

He did not. Sark used a fullback less and was ineffective with it when he did, he used WRs less to block at the second level and at the edge, he struggled to stretch defenses vertically...

And even aside from the changes in personnel usage, Sark can't read NFL defenses worth a damn. A playcaller too often losing the chess game isn't going to be very good regardless of scheme. Scheme isn't a cheat-code.

Koetter appears to be a front-runner to replace him.

The guy who was there when Freeman was drafted, you mean. Obviously, this would not necessarily be a bad thing for Freeman.

I question if Koetter is truly a front-runner for the job, though; Quinn has no history with Koetter.

the likelihood of the next OC running an outside zone scheme that Freeman has had so much success under, is very low

If they don't have the personnel group to drastically shift scheme tendencies, they won't. Generally speaking, zone is better suited for athletic lineman, and if that's what Atlanta has, that's what they'll do.

However, the notion that blocking scheme is rigid in a given offense is a myth; all NFL offenses mix both zone-blocking and power-blocking. Some have a preference for one over the other, but none are all one or the other. Because that would be dumb.

Regardless, Freeman does just fine between the tackles. There's a reason he got most of the x-and-short work over Coleman.

[ericanadian]

Not sure I agree. Freeman was incredibly successful in the outside zone scheme of Shanahan, but looked pretty mediocre under Koetter back in 2014 and the team drafted Coleman to replace Freeman.

- Freeman was the best graded RB in Atlanta's backfield in '14 (also had the best YPC)

- the line was immediately improved in '15 (both in terms of performance metrics and the personnel group on paper), although the performance dipped again in the last third of the seasons after a couple of injuries to the group

- Coleman was drafted because they had basically nothing other than Freeman that year on the depth-chart, having cut everyone but Freeman from last year's chart... of course, it was a competition for the lead job, which Freeman was winning all OTAs, minicamp, and the first week of TC. Then he had a hamstring injury.

Sarkisian has largely left the Shanahan offensive scheme intact

He did not. Sark quit using a fullback, he used WRs less to block at the second level and at the edge, he struggled to stretch defenses vertically... there's a reason Sark was axed after just two seasons.

And even aside from the changes in personnel usage, Sark can't read NFL defenses worth a damn. A playcaller too often losing the chess game isn't going to be very good regardless of scheme. Scheme isn't a cheat-code.

Koetter appears to be a front-runner to replace him.

The guy who was there when Freeman was drafted, you mean. Obviously, this would not necessarily be a bad thing for Freeman.

I question if Koetter is truly a front-runner for the job, though; Quinn has no history with Koetter.

the likelihood of the next OC running an outside zone scheme that Freeman has had so much success under, is very low

If they don't have the personnel group to drastically shift scheme tendencies, they won't. Generally speaking, zone is better suited for athletic lineman, and if that's what Atlanta has, that's what they'll do.

However, the notion that blocking scheme is rigid in a given offense is a myth; all NFL offenses mix both zone-blocking and power-blocking. Some have a preference for one over the other, but none are all one or the other. Because that would be dumb.

Regardless, Freeman does just fine between the tackles. There's a reason he got most of the x-and-short work over Coleman.

Best graded RB with a washed up Steven Jackson and Quizz Rodgers as competition... yay...

The line shifted heavily to outside zone in 2015. It’s what Shanahan does.

Coleman had a similar hamstring injury at almost exactly the same time as Freeman. Just before that, he was taking first team reps alongside Freeman after starting with the second team due to veteran deference. He then overtook Freeman partially because he healed up from his hamstring injury quicker. He then broke his ribs and was surpassed by Freeman and the rest is history.

Sark continued to use outside zone, which he had no history of using. Did he make some changes in terms of blocking assignments? Sure, but ultimately he stuck with a scheme he had no history of using because that is what he was told to do. Yes, he’s a garbage play caller. I never claimed otherwise.

Koetter didn’t draft him, Koetter was the OC and Freeman was a fourth round pick. The team may very well use a zone scheme, but given that Shanahan is pretty much the only guy using outside zone as his primary scheme, with Sark gone and Chicago changing this past season, I think it’s pretty unlikely the new guy will run it as their primary scheme. Maybe Freeman can still succeed in another offense, but he hasn’t yet and there is risk there. Lots of running backs struggle/succeed based on the primary (sorry for not being specific before. Didn’t realize that you needed to be spoonfed. I’m well aware that teams run multiple schemes.) scheme. As I said, Freeman isn’t Alfred Morris, but we’ll see how his rushing holds up.

[jenkins.math]

There is a lot of risk with Freeman. He has struggled with injuries his entire career and now they are getting a new offensive coordinator who may change it all up. If I could get him for a 2nd then sure, but I wouldn't pay any more than that for him.

[ArrylT]

Freeman sounds like he could be a bargain or buyers remorse - a lot is going to depend on what happens in Atlanta obviously during the off-season - and not to mention if you can find that sweet spot (if buying) where you are not spending more than you can afford, but still giving your trade partner something he feels is worthwhile. Of course you could be lucky and the Freeman owner could be an orphan takeover, or a guy soured on Freemans last 2 years.

[joeya2001]

The week before Freeman was placed on IR I sent him and Lamar Miller to a contender for George Kittle and a second round pick, at first it seemed like I over paid for Kittle, but looking back at it now, glad I did.

[Johnny Canuck]

Freeman is a buy for sure. The prices that I've been seeing ppl throw around are so unrealistic it is comical. Talking about paying a 2nd...good luck buying a starting RB on a good offense for a 2nd lol. He's easily worth a 1st (should be worth more imo), especially in this draft class.

In this post, I'll attempt to illustrate that Freeman is worth a 2019 first at minimum.

Let's just brake down Freeman VS the first round picks last yr (much much better draft class imo). All ADP information is pulled from https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/a ... m/all/2018.

1.01 Saquon Barkley - Rather Barkley
1.02 Royce Freeman - Rather Freeman
1.03 Sony Michel - Slight edge to Michel due to age
1.04 Kerryon Johnson - Rather KJ
1.05 Derrius Guice - Rather Guice
1.06 D.J. Moore - Rather DJM
1.07 Rashaad Penny - Rather Freeman
1.08 Ronald Jones II - Rather Freeman
1.09 Nick Chubb - Rather Chubb
1.10 Calvin Ridley - Rather Freeman
1.11 Baker Mayfield - In one QB, rather Freeman, everything else Rather Mayfield.
1.12 Courtland Sutton - Rather Freeman

*I'm speaking about current values, and obvs these are my own, pls don't try and sidetrack the entire discussion because you disagree with one or two little rankings. This is for a general sense. Feel free to make your own rankings as that would be interesting. Also I'm taking a competitive team viewpoint, obvs this changes a bit with a rebuilder.

So personally I'd take Freeman over 50% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman only over 17% of the top 6 picks, but I'd take him over 83% of the picks from 7-12.

Now you might not agree with all those assessments and that's fine, but that was also last years draft class which appears to much better than this upcoming class. This upcoming class looks to have more in common with the 2015 or 2016 class in terms of depth and overall strength. So let's compare to those just for fun.

2016

1.01 Ezekiel Elliott - Rather Zeke
1.02 Corey Coleman - Rather Freeman
1.03 Laquon Treadwell - Rather Freeman
1.04 Josh Doctson - Rather Freeman
1.05 Sterling Shepard - Rather Freeman
1.06 Derrick Henry - Tie due to current Henry hype
1.07 Michael Thomas - Rather Thomas
1.08 Kenneth Dixon - Rather Freeman
1.09 Tyler Boyd - Tie
1.10 Will Fuller - Rather Freeman due to position scarcity
1.11 CJ Prosise - Rather Freeman
1.12 Leontee Caroo - Rather Freeman

If we take out the ties, I'd rather Freeman over 80% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman over 80% of the top 6 picks, and I'd take him over 80% of the picks from 7-12.

2015

1.01 Todd Gurley - Rather Gurley
1.02 Amari Cooper - Rather Coop
1.03 Melvin Gordon - Rather Melvin
1.04 TJ Yeldon - Rather Freeman
1.05 DeVante Parker - Rather Freeman
1.06 Tevin Coleman - Rather Freeman
1.07 Ameer Abdullah - Rather Freeman
1.08 Nelson Agholor - Rather Freeman
1.09 Dorial Green-Beckham - Rather Freeman
1.10 Breshad Perriman - Rather Freeman
1.11 Jameis Winston - Rather Freeman
1.12 Marcus Mariota - Rather Freeman

For 2015, I'd rather Freeman over 75% of the top 12, and if you split that into 1-6, and 7-12 portions. I'd take Freeman over 50% of the top 6 picks, and I'd take him over 100% of the picks from 7-12.

This is a very long winded way of saying, don't overvalue you're draft picks for this upcoming draft, and I would advise any forum member to quickly sell a first if that's all it takes to obtain Freeman. That would be a steal. This draft isn't that great, or that deep. There is maybe 3 or 4 guys at most that MIGHT be difference makers, and if you don't have a top three pick, the chance that it hits, or that the player will produce more than Freeman is pretty poor.

I am fallible for sure, but it doesn't take Alan Turing to see that the hit rate of first rounders is pretty poor unless the draft class is exceptional, and everything I've read so far has said this class is far from exceptional (outside of 3-4 offensive players).

[ericanadian]

Yes, even as a detractor, if I was offered him for a second I would break my screen hitting accept so hard. I would still pay a mid-first as a buy low as even if the system changes, he’ll get first shot and he’ll likely remain productive in the passing game. I would expect his value to be around a top three pick or multiple picks.