Kerryon Johnson Value

[Bot101]

Im still not sold on Kerryon. My biggest concern was his upright run style would lead to getting dinged up and injured more often. And exactly that came to pass. I like him with a limited touch role but if he starts getting bellcow touches like his owners would like I'd be very worried.

[kadun2]

Early 1st.
I hope he bulks up a little this off-season.

[Factory of Sadness]

I'm curious about Bevel. There's no doubt that his instructions in Seattle were to run a complementary offense to a legendary defense. The Lions are going to want to (sigh) 'establish the run' for sure. They can't imagine they are going to continually beat Nagy's Bears or the Packers 13-10 though. The D improved under Patricia, but it's hardly elite. I'd guess at run heavy with a lot of deep shots off play-action. We've seen Stafford run a quick pass game, and it wasn't very good. Ask him to drop back and sling it deep to Golladay and Jones to help (sigh) 'establish the run' though and he has a lot to offer. There's definitely potential for Kerryon to be a feature back and Golladay to get a lot of chunk plays too. I think it's tough to discern the tendencies of a coordinator when they work for a defensive head coach who loves a punt or two. Patricia will be conservative for sure, but he is coaching for his job next year and a flatlining O could sink him. I'm open to being pleasantly surprised by the Lions next year.

[remedy29]

There is no doubt that Detroit wants to turn to a high volume running game. I still think there is room for Galloday to produce as the near top WR in Detroit.

Detroit has also stated they want to add another quality RB to aid their running game. Local Detroit sports talk topic yesterday (I get the privilege to travel to Detroit area for work) was that Detroit should try to sign Kareem Hunt. If they bring in a RB of that quality, it will hurt Kerryon some, but I'd still view Kerryon as a top 15 RB.

[Valhalla]

Im still not sold on Kerryon. My biggest concern was his upright run style would lead to getting dinged up and injured more often. And exactly that came to pass. I like him with a limited touch role but if he starts getting bellcow touches like his owners would like I'd be very worried.

This is a bit where I'm at. He did better than I thought he would, but the thing that worried me the most about his running style is how reckless he was with his body in college. He's slippery and quite often gets extra yardage with his lunges forward while being tackled, but I felt like he was leaving himself open for injuries often when I watched him. He's got a bouncy, upright, long strider style of running (my best quick description) that lends to big explosive plays but also increased injury risk.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he continues to tease fantasy players with his flashy plays and efficiency but is continuously plagued ("unlucky") with injuries...and is yearly discussed as an "if only healthy" asset.

[Servo]

Bevell's had 8 Top 12 RB's and 3 Top 12 WR's...if the past is indicative of future outcomes...Bevell likes to run.

[FantasyFreak]

Im still not sold on Kerryon. My biggest concern was his upright run style would lead to getting dinged up and injured more often. And exactly that came to pass. I like him with a limited touch role but if he starts getting bellcow touches like his owners would like I'd be very worried.

This is a bit where I'm at. He did better than I thought he would, but the thing that worried me the most about his running style is how reckless he was with his body in college. He's slippery and quite often gets extra yardage with his lunges forward while being tackled, but I felt like he was leaving himself open for injuries often when I watched him. He's got a bouncy, upright, long strider style of running (my best quick description) that lends to big explosive plays but also increased injury risk.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he continues to tease fantasy players with his flashy plays and efficiency but is continuously plagued ("unlucky") with injuries...and is yearly discussed as an "if only healthy" asset.

Then I'm assuming you own Guice nowhere, right? He was easily the most reckless runner in this draft. One of the things I liked about Penny is he never seemed to get hit hard, found a way to not get hit directly. Le'veon Bell has an upright style too, and his injuries had nothing to do with it. I only have 1 share of Kerryon, but I do like his game. I don't know that there can be a proven correlation to a players stride etc. and injuries. It's pretty hard to prove, it's just armchair doctor work. Now inviting unnecessary contact when there are other options is another story. Obviously the more instances you are getting hit lend to a higher risk of injury.

[FantasyFreak]

Bevell's had 8 Top 12 RB's and 3 Top 12 WR's...if the past is indicative of future outcomes...Bevell likes to run.

This Bevell thing needs to be put into context. Lynch and AP in his prime! Come on, who wouldn't like to run with those guys, and Seattle had that D, too. It's as much to do with what he was working with as what he "likes to do". Are you saying he had 8 separate RB1's, or was that AP and Lynch a bunch of times?

Granted, the Lions are trying to be more balanced, they have made that known. The past is indicative of future outcomes to a point. People were saying that as the reason Cooks wasn't going to get 100 targets or a 1000 yards, too. I think Bevell bodes well for Kerryon getting the ball quite a bit, but the other thing that needs to be looked at is a lot of those teams he was on had an elite RB, and a good D, where they were often winning games, and grinding out clock. If the Lions continue to trail games in the 2nd half, whether he likes to run or not, they will be throwing. Luckily KJ has proven to be a good pass catcher.

[Valhalla]

Im still not sold on Kerryon. My biggest concern was his upright run style would lead to getting dinged up and injured more often. And exactly that came to pass. I like him with a limited touch role but if he starts getting bellcow touches like his owners would like I'd be very worried.

This is a bit where I'm at. He did better than I thought he would, but the thing that worried me the most about his running style is how reckless he was with his body in college. He's slippery and quite often gets extra yardage with his lunges forward while being tackled, but I felt like he was leaving himself open for injuries often when I watched him. He's got a bouncy, upright, long strider style of running (my best quick description) that lends to big explosive plays but also increased injury risk.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he continues to tease fantasy players with his flashy plays and efficiency but is continuously plagued ("unlucky") with injuries...and is yearly discussed as an "if only healthy" asset.

Then I'm assuming you own Guice nowhere, right? He was easily the most reckless runner in this draft. One of the things I liked about Penny is he never seemed to get hit hard, found a way to not get hit directly. Le'veon Bell has an upright style too, and his injuries had nothing to do with it. I only have 1 share of Kerryon, but I do like his game. I don't know that there can be a proven correlation to a players stride etc. and injuries. It's pretty hard to prove, it's just armchair doctor work. Now inviting unnecessary contact when there are other options is another story. Obviously the more instances you are getting hit lend to a higher risk of injury.

What you say about Penny finding a way to not get hit directly...I see that in Kerryon, which is what I meant when I said he was slippery. He makes would-be direct blows from oncoming tacklers turn into side-glancing blows or arm tackles here and there by making a quick lunge or twist while he's getting hit. I suppose you could say that's preventing injury, but I think it's raising the probability of his lower extremities being forced into a bad contortion.

It's all really just a probability game, like all of fantasy. In my opinion (I acknowledge it's not backed up by research) his running style provides for extra yards here and there (being slippery) but also raises the probability of injury occurring every time he does that. It's just my armchair opinion, though.

[FantasyFreak]

This is a bit where I'm at. He did better than I thought he would, but the thing that worried me the most about his running style is how reckless he was with his body in college. He's slippery and quite often gets extra yardage with his lunges forward while being tackled, but I felt like he was leaving himself open for injuries often when I watched him. He's got a bouncy, upright, long strider style of running (my best quick description) that lends to big explosive plays but also increased injury risk.

I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he continues to tease fantasy players with his flashy plays and efficiency but is continuously plagued ("unlucky") with injuries...and is yearly discussed as an "if only healthy" asset.

Then I'm assuming you own Guice nowhere, right? He was easily the most reckless runner in this draft. One of the things I liked about Penny is he never seemed to get hit hard, found a way to not get hit directly. Le'veon Bell has an upright style too, and his injuries had nothing to do with it. I only have 1 share of Kerryon, but I do like his game. I don't know that there can be a proven correlation to a players stride etc. and injuries. It's pretty hard to prove, it's just armchair doctor work. Now inviting unnecessary contact when there are other options is another story. Obviously the more instances you are getting hit lend to a higher risk of injury.

What you say about Penny finding a way to not get hit directly...I see that in Kerryon, which is what I meant when I said he was slippery. He makes would-be direct blows from oncoming tacklers turn into side-glancing blows or arm tackles here and there by making a quick lunge or twist while he's getting hit. I suppose you could say that's preventing injury, but I think it's raising the probability of his lower extremities being forced into a bad contortion.

It's all really just a probability game, like all of fantasy. In my opinion (I acknowledge it's not backed up by research) his running style provides for extra yards here and there (being slippery) but also raises the probability of injury occurring every time he does that. It's just my armchair opinion, though.

Yeah, it makes sense. Logically, the though process seems legit. I am really interested to see if he's continued to be used heavily in the passing game or not.

[TB3falcons]

Unless one of the RBs this yr goes to an absolutely amazing situation, KJ would be the best RB in the 2019 draft...NTM he'd still be younger than most draft eligible RBs.

With KJ he was always seen as a "gotta wait one yr" type (until Blount leaves, and Patricia figures his stuff out). Now that the yr has almost passed, he's not worth less, he's worth more.

KJ is 21, has proven to be a stud on the field, and that was not really seeing much work until recently. Next yr when he gets the work...watch out.

In a meh-ish draft class without a Barkley, Zeke, or Fournette type, he's worth the 1.01 in this draft class for sure. He's what you're hoping to get with those early picks. A young stud three down RB in a decent offense.

If you're trading him for anything less than 1.01, I'd want a cherry on top.

What makes you think he’ll be a 3down stud? It worries me that the coaching staff gave an underwhelming Blount so much work.

[ascherb]

Unless one of the RBs this yr goes to an absolutely amazing situation, KJ would be the best RB in the 2019 draft...NTM he'd still be younger than most draft eligible RBs.

With KJ he was always seen as a "gotta wait one yr" type (until Blount leaves, and Patricia figures his stuff out). Now that the yr has almost passed, he's not worth less, he's worth more.

KJ is 21, has proven to be a stud on the field, and that was not really seeing much work until recently. Next yr when he gets the work...watch out.

In a meh-ish draft class without a Barkley, Zeke, or Fournette type, he's worth the 1.01 in this draft class for sure. He's what you're hoping to get with those early picks. A young stud three down RB in a decent offense.

If you're trading him for anything less than 1.01, I'd want a cherry on top.

What makes you think he’ll be a 3down stud? It worries me that the coaching staff gave an underwhelming Blount so much work.

I think that was a case of them signing Blount for $4.5 million prior to the draft (which is smart in case the draft doesn’t go according to plan), and then feeling like his contract warranted a concerted effort to find a role for him.

The Vikings did a similar thing with Latavius Murray before they drafted Cook.

The signing was an insurance policy in case you weren’t able to get your RB in the draft, which they ultimately did.

To me, if I were the Lions, I have seen enough from Kerryon to give him more work in 2019. Maybe not a full 3-down guy, but he’s going to be 200+ carries I would think.

Whether or not he can handle that workload in the longterm is the $64,000 question.

[remedy29]

Teams do typically ease RBs in. Kerryon got plenty of work weeks 7 to 11.

[James McGhee]

Wasn't Kerryon's injury on that very sharp cut back and not from being tackled? I could be wrong but I seem to remember it being mostly non-contact. Which happens. Edelman, Bridgewater, Watson, etc. Just trying to put some perspective on the argument he's injury prone because he runs upright.

[Johnny Canuck]

His injury wasn't serious, it was just a sprain, not a tear or rupture. There was reports that he could of played again this season if Det was still in playoff contention, but they weren't, so they smartly shut him down.

What makes you think he’ll be a 3down stud? It worries me that the coaching staff gave an underwhelming Blount so much work.

Jim Bob always had a full blown committee, plus Patricia just signed and loved Blount back on the Pats, so I wasn't surprised to see it be an RBBC.

The staff did give Blount too much work, but after the bye week Det started to use Kerryon in a more feature role (weeks 7-11). And during those weeks, Blount's touches per game dropped from 12.1 to 6.6 total touches a game (6.6 works out to a 105.6 per 16 game pace).

Kerryon's total touches jumped from 13 to 18.4 per game (18.4 works out to 294.4 touch per 16 game pace), and 294.4 touches would of been the 6th most volume for an RB this yr (only behind: Zeke, Barkley, DJ, Gurley, and McCaff).

So if you use those numbers, I think it's safe to say Kerryon was heading towards being a 3 down feature back, while Blount was becoming the primary backup. So Kerryon/Blount were pacing for standing lead back/backup usage ratios. The lead guy hovering around 280, with the back up around 150-100 is pretty standard across the league. Rod smith had 139 touches, Royce Freeman 150 touches, Austin Ekeler had 159, etc. So Blount getting between 150-100 touches isn't a huge red flag for me, a tiny one, but not huge.

At the end of the day I just think that Kerryon performed great on all three downs when given the opportunity. It's been a while since everyone had the chance to watch him, so give this highlight reel a look if ppl want to refresh their memory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LzofctRjlM

Best highlights are at: 0:20sec, 1:00, 2:28, 2:45, 3:58, 4:34, 5:45